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Jeff Wilson Jr. 2020 Outlook


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I would play Wilson regardless.  The 49ers won't run Mostert into the ground, especially knowing he has a bad wheel. They both can play and be productive Sunday. The other thing to consider is with Deebo out,  they are short another playmaker. They aren't gonna ask Mullens to win it for them.

 

If for some reason they get up big, Mostert is yanked and Wilson carries the mail.  They would much rather have Mostert good for the Cards game I would assume. 

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Still seems like a decent start and there is a very real possibility Mostert gets hurt again mid game, but it's a little too iffy for me. Think I'm pivoting to salvon Ahmed, dude looked good the 2 weeks he filled in for Gaskin. 

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Mostert playing is definitely a downer but I’m still starting as a flex option. He should still be splitting the work load and hoping for 10-12 carries against a bad Dallas defense and hoping on goal duties. 

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You're killing me Mosthurt. Think about the fantasy owners!

I don't know what I'll do with Mr.Wilson now. I have about 6 options for 3 spots and none of them have distinguished themselves this week as great starts. I love the matchup for Wilson, hate when guys have the risk of limited carries. That's fantasy football in 2020 though

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If you go by expert consensus it isn't even close. Start this guy (RB24 ECR) and don't even think about Mostert (RB57 ECR). I don't know if I agree based on last week's work split, but people are still ranking it like Wilson will get, if not the majority, than at least the higher-value snaps.

Edited by LongBalls
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4 minutes ago, LongBalls said:

If you go by expert consensus it isn't even close. Start this guy (RB24 ECR) and don't even think about Mostert (RB57 ECR). I don't know if I agree based on last week's work split, but people are still ranking it like Wilson will get, if not the majority, than at least the higher-value snaps.

 

Consensus lags though. If you go to FantasyPros and their dozens of experts and their rankings, Mostert barely is in the top 90 for PPR flex. That's because these dopes haven't adjusted yet based on yesterday's info.

I think Wilson is at minimum flex worthy even with Mostert around. They're both solid plays in a great matchup.

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10 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Consensus lags though. If you go to FantasyPros and their dozens of experts and their rankings, Mostert barely is in the top 90 for PPR flex. That's because these dopes haven't adjusted yet based on yesterday's info.

I think Wilson is at minimum flex worthy even with Mostert around. They're both solid plays in a great matchup.

 

I would hope it didn't lag that much or it becomes pretty useless; we found out about the positive MRI results Wed and he returned to practice Thurs. But yeah, I guess some outlets rank at the beginning of the week and don't adjust. I would also suspect the "experts" don't have much clue which guy to start anyway.

Edited by LongBalls
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36 minutes ago, LongBalls said:

 

I would hope it didn't lag that much or it becomes pretty useless; we found out about the positive MRI results Wed and he returned to practice Thurs. But yeah, I guess some outlets rank at the beginning of the week and don't adjust. I would also suspect the "experts" don't have much clue which guy to start anyway.

This is a problem I have many weeks with questionable players. If you are ever using fantasypros and you want to get a more up to date look, try checking out the players profile and ranking. Usually that will give ya a list of expert rankings along with how recently updated the rank is. Right now pat fitzmaurice who is the most accurate ranker this season, has Mostert ahead of Wilson by a about 10 spots. I am having trouble with this decision myself so I've been looking for anything to help me decide. 

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7 minutes ago, Buckmcbuck said:

This is a problem I have many weeks with questionable players. If you are ever using fantasypros and you want to get a more up to date look, try checking out the players profile and ranking. Usually that will give ya a list of expert rankings along with how recently updated the rank is. Right now pat fitzmaurice who is the most accurate ranker this season, has Mostert ahead of Wilson by a about 10 spots. I am having trouble with this decision myself so I've been looking for anything to help me decide. 

 

Hah thank you, that actually helped out quite a bit. Your process prompted me to avoid this backfield altogether and play Kareem Hunt.

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From FantasyPros player profile. Sorry for the formatting issue. It appears I'm a bit challenged. 

EXPERT NOTE
View More Notes

It makes me sad to say this but Mostert hasn't played more than 49 percent of the snaps since way back in Week 1. Meanwhile, in the last four games Wilson's played, he's totaled 35-56 percent of the snaps. Over the last two weeks, it's been almost a dead-even split between these two running backs, as Mostert has played 67 snaps and received 26 touches, while Wilson has played 67 snaps and received 21 touches. Does Wilson lose some touches/opportunities for his fumble last week? He played afterward, so it doesn't seem like it. The Cowboys opponents have elected to run the ball on a massive 49.2 percent of plays (no other team is over 47.1 percent). The Cowboys are also allowing a league-high 30.8 points per game against them, and that's despite the Bengals scoring just seven points last week. The downside to the 49ers offense is that they're the slowest paced offense in the NFL in a neutral gamescript, so they don't run a whole lot of plays. They're projected to win this game, so expecting them to move at a faster pace wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. Teams have not targeted their running backs against the Cowboys, and because of that, they've allowed just 289 yards and no touchdowns through 13 games. Even if they did target their running backs, the Cowboys have allowed a measly 1.23 PPR points per target, which is the lowest number in the league. However, that's not why you're playing Mostert and/or Wilson. The Cowboys have allowed a massive 250.7 fantasy points on the ground alone this year, which ranks second to only the Texans. They've also allowed a league-leading 3.21 yards before contact to ball carriers, which should allow Mostert time to ramp up that speed he's flashed (he has the two fastest MPH runs, according to NFL's NextGenStats). There have been 13 running backs who've totaled 60-plus yards on the ground against the Cowboys this year, and not every team runs the ball 24.2 times per game like the 49ers do. Mostert should be in lineups as an RB2 this week as the more talented of the two, while Wilson can be considered a back-end RB3 who could outproduce those expectations if the 50/50 snap share continues.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros  Dec 17, 2020
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I am absolutely stumped as well....Part of me REALLY wants to start Mostert....But something is telling me that I should be starting Wilson. 

I get this weird "Week 15 Keenan Allen" kind of feel from Mostert...and that if he comes out of a play even slightly hobbled, they're going to sit him the rest of the game.

To me, both Wilson and Mostert are RB2's this week...

And really, the only thing anyone can fear, is that Mostert gets 20 carries or something crazy...which doesn't seem to be the case.

I feel like this will be a 50/50 split, and Wilson is definitely the preferred option inside the 5-yard line.

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