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Jeff Wilson Jr. 2020 Outlook


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8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Who cares if the offense is good? He’s going to get volume.

20/70/ and 3/15 with a shot at a touchdown is fine. I doubt he’s anyone’s RB1 at this point. 


Define “RB1” 

 

Sadly I think he’s my RB1

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Who cares if the offense is good? He’s going to get volume.

20/70/ and 3/15 with a shot at a touchdown is fine. I doubt he’s anyone’s RB1 at this point. 

Because turnovers and lack of production can lead to negative game script which in turn will put McKinnon on the field more. At least Pick Nick isn’t playing. 

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Likely rolling with him with the news of the other waiver RBs seemingly starting to fall apart. Don't feel terrible about it. Hoping for 70 or so rushing yards, a TD, and a handful of receptions. 

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22 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

That is because Raheem and Wilson were both active. With one of them out expect McKinnon's touches to go up. Wilson is still gonna get 12+ touches as long as the game is manageable. 

 

Okay? Point is, the guy averaging .66 touches/game over the last 3 weeks is unlikely to steal the show. 

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11 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

I agree with that. 

I see what you're saying though. The 49ers pretty much never roll with just one guy. If Mostert is out that means they will work in McKinnon now. Wilson should still be the lead back though.

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47 minutes ago, USWAY said:

I see what you're saying though. The 49ers pretty much never roll with just one guy. If Mostert is out that means they will work in McKinnon now. Wilson should still be the lead back though.

Mostert was dominating touches before he got hurt last game, wasn't he? I think if he'd stayed healthy it wouldn't have been anywhere close to 50/50 split. So there is realistic optimism Wilson could do that in week 16. 

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4 hours ago, owenmills said:

Mostert was dominating touches before he got hurt last game, wasn't he? I think if he'd stayed healthy it wouldn't have been anywhere close to 50/50 split. So there is realistic optimism Wilson could do that in week 16. 


Yes he started and received a majority of carries. Wilson was out there on the second series (and received the only target) before Mullens fumbled so he didn’t get much run. But right after the half is when Mostert appeared to aggravate his injury and Wilson took over.
 

Honestly unless you have some horses he’s a start. He is a good, hard runner and hopefully Beathard can sustain drives but there shouldn’t be any doubt on his volume. With Mostert out he will be the guy. My biggest concern is an injury because the dude runs like a mad man. 

Edited by TeflonDonNewcombe
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So I’m not sure why people think McKinnon/Coleman are now going to get a lot of run. We have a limited amount of info but we have some. Week 7 when mostert was out Wilson played and got 17 carries for 112 yards and 3 TDs. McKinnon got 3 carries for -1 yard and I think Coleman was out that game. Sure McKinnon and Coleman will probably get some runs in but Wilson is clearly the preferred option here and has a chance for a huge game. I’d be more worried about him lasting the whole game without getting injured rather than worried about McKinnon and Coleman stealing 50% of the work.

Edited by StevenSC400
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1 hour ago, StevenSC400 said:

So I’m not sure why people think McKinnon/Coleman are now going to get a lot of run. We have a limited amount of info but we have some. Week 7 when mostert was out Wilson played and got 17 carries for 112 yards and 3 TDs. McKinnon got 3 carries for -1 yard and I think Coleman was out that game. Sure McKinnon and Coleman will probably get some runs in but Wilson is clearly the preferred option here and has a chance for a huge game. I’d be more worried about him lasting the whole game without getting injured rather than worried about McKinnon and Coleman stealing 50% of the work.

That was coming off McKinnon being basically the only back for a month and his legs were noodles after being out for two seasons. Maybe you are right Wilson gets the grunt of that work but your logic there is flawed. 

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39 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

That was coming off McKinnon being basically the only back for a month and his legs were noodles after being out for two seasons. Maybe you are right Wilson gets the grunt of that work but your logic there is flawed. 

Hmm ok. So why is it that McKinnon had 14 carries week 3 then 14 carries week 4 and then a big drop off. Wilson was active both weeks too so he could have easily got the majority of the work if they wanted to give it to him. So what that tells me is that they faded McKinnon and preferred Wilson over him starting from week 7. Then in week 9 and 10 when Wilson and mostert were both out McKinnon again got double digit carries. Then we go to week 12 when both Wilson and mostert came back and McKinnon goes for 3 carries week 12 then a whopping 0 carries week 13-15. So I don’t see where my logic is flawed based on the limited info we have. They obviously prefer Wilson over him based on those numbers and it’s not even close.

Edited by StevenSC400
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Then I forgot to add same thing with Coleman. He comes back week 13 and gets 2 carries, then 0 in week 14 and 3 in week 15. So again based on what we have they clearly prefer Wilson here. I’m sure they are going to get some touches now that mostert is out but it should still heavily favor Wilson. I would think he should easily be the favorite in probably a 70/30 to 80/20 split.

Edited by StevenSC400
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5 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Then I forgot to add same thing with Coleman. He comes back week 13 and gets 2 carries, then 0 in week 14 and 3 in week 15. So again based on what we have they clearly prefer Wilson here. I’m sure they are going to get some touches now that mostert is out but it should still heavily favor Wilson. I would think he should easily be the favorite in probably a 70/30 to 80/20 split.

I was thinking a 70/30 split also. In today's NFL it usually doesn't get much better than that

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4 hours ago, owenmills said:

I was thinking a 70/30 split also. In today's NFL it usually doesn't get much better than that

That’s all you can really ask for. He’s also the goal line back. And if it slides to more of an 80/20 split that’s even more gravy. 

Edited by StevenSC400
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Interesting article from profootballnetwork.com.

An excerpt is below. The writer considers it a given elsewhere in the article that Wilson gets 15-20 carries.

How does the Week 16 matchup shapeup for Wilson

Matchups and opportunities are make-or-break for fantasy players. Jeff Wilson has the opportunity, but the matchup leaves plenty to be desired. The Arizona Cardinals rank 23rd in standard scoring when it comes to Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (D-PAC). In PPR scoring, it gets worse, as the Cardinals rank 26th in D-PAC.

In terms of fantasy points allowed to the position, the Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack. They allow an average of 17.4 fantasy points per game to RBs in PPR formats. While not great, Wilson should be in line for 50-70% of those points at least. One place they struggle is in the red zone, allowing 7.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backs (24th).

In PPR formats, there is reason to be cautious. The Cardinals allow just 3.8 receptions per game to opposing backs. They do allow 35 receiving yards per game on average, but just three touchdowns. In total, the Cardinals allow just 0.93 touchdowns oper game to the running back position.

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