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Jeff Wilson Jr. 2020 Outlook


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8 minutes ago, TeflonDonNewcombe said:

Looks like Kittle is playing which is a boost to the run game. My not so bold prediction is 16 carries for 72 yards and a TD with a couple receptions sprinkled in. So around 15 in half ppr leagues which would be nice 

I think anyone in here would drink to that 🍺

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I really worry about the game flow situation with Beathard at QB. He is not a good player and I can easily see Arizona lighting it up on the other side. Wilson is not their guy on passing downs and I think that’s going to make up the bulk of their plays with this dude at QB. Will he be the starting RB? Yes. But sometimes that doesn’t translate to fantasy production, and in this case I don’t see any 49ers player as a good bet for production besides Aiyuk, who also should be pegged down further than he has been given the clown that’s throwing to him. The fact that Mullens is out seems to be completely ignored and I don’t get that. Mullens is actually competent. Beathard has had a good game or two but has proven that he’s completely and absolutely unreliable as a starter (which is why he was the third string guy coming into the season).

 

I hate to be the naysayer at this late hour for the few people still playing this week, but I do think you should pump the brakes on Wilson. I get him as a desperation play but I see some ranking him in the top 15 or even top 10. I see him closer to the 20-25 range given the fact that you’re as likely if not more to see his floor than his ceiling given how this offense is likely to perform this week. He needs goal line chances. I’m not seeing it. 

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9 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

I really worry about the game flow situation with Beathard at QB. He is not a good player and I can easily see Arizona lighting it up on the other side. Wilson is not their guy on passing downs and I think that’s going to make up the bulk of their plays with this dude at QB. Will he be the starting RB? Yes. But sometimes that doesn’t translate to fantasy production, and in this case I don’t see any 49ers player as a good bet for production besides Aiyuk, who also should be pegged down further than he has been given the clown that’s throwing to him. The fact that Mullens is out seems to be completely ignored and I don’t get that. Mullens is actually competent. Beathard has had a good game or two but has proven that he’s completely and absolutely unreliable as a starter (which is why he was the third string guy coming into the season).

 

I hate to be the naysayer at this late hour for the few people still playing this week, but I do think you should pump the brakes on Wilson. I get him as a desperation play but I see some ranking him in the top 15 or even top 10. I see him closer to the 20-25 range given the fact that you’re as likely if not more to see his floor than his ceiling given how this offense is likely to perform this week. He needs goal line chances. I’m not seeing it. 

If Beathard is worse than Mullens I guess I will pay the price of admission to witness it - cuz Mullens sucks. Your saying Beathard is going to be worse that Mullens indicates to me you don't know what you're talking about, because what you're saying is pretty much impossible.

Edited by SuperJoint
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4 minutes ago, GarrettHasTheClap said:

People acting like Mullens was Brett Favre  lol.  These guys are basically the same thing. 

I mostly agree - with the caveat that Beathard is really going to have to blow some serious chunk to be worse than Mullens. I don't think  they are "the same thing" - I think Beathard's better until proven otherwise.

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6 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

I mostly agree - with the caveat that Beathard is really going to have to blow some serious chunk to be worse than Mullens. I don't think  they are "the same thing" - I think Beathard's better until proven otherwise.

What I mean is they are the same tier quarterback.  Neither one of them are special.  I just think that's such a minor detail to not play Wilson honestly. 

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Yeah Mullens has been straight up AWFUL this season. Beatherd may not be an upgrade, but he's not a downgrade either. Not to mention Kittle's return will help keep the offense from turning into a mess

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8 hours ago, AnchorDown said:

I really worry about the game flow situation with Beathard at QB. He is not a good player and I can easily see Arizona lighting it up on the other side. Wilson is not their guy on passing downs and I think that’s going to make up the bulk of their plays with this dude at QB. Will he be the starting RB? Yes. But sometimes that doesn’t translate to fantasy production, and in this case I don’t see any 49ers player as a good bet for production besides Aiyuk, who also should be pegged down further than he has been given the clown that’s throwing to him. The fact that Mullens is out seems to be completely ignored and I don’t get that. Mullens is actually competent. Beathard has had a good game or two but has proven that he’s completely and absolutely unreliable as a starter (which is why he was the third string guy coming into the season).

 

I hate to be the naysayer at this late hour for the few people still playing this week, but I do think you should pump the brakes on Wilson. I get him as a desperation play but I see some ranking him in the top 15 or even top 10. I see him closer to the 20-25 range given the fact that you’re as likely if not more to see his floor than his ceiling given how this offense is likely to perform this week. He needs goal line chances. I’m not seeing it. 


the question is this.  Who are your other options?  If you’re in this thread, clearly nothing else in the top 20. So let’s stay positive!  

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1 hour ago, poofinger said:


the question is this.  Who are your other options?  If you’re in this thread, clearly nothing else in the top 20. So let’s stay positive!  

He could be good at identifying talent and stashing players so his opponent doesn't get them

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12 hours ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

Wish I had an extra starting spot for Wilson this week. I expect him to EAT really good this week. If my other guys weren't hot then I'd be benching them

 

Same here...hard to start Wilson over Jacobs/Ekeler/Swift especially in PPR.  Still would much rather have him on my bench than going against me.

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19 hours ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

Wish I had an extra starting spot for Wilson this week. I expect him to EAT really good this week. If my other guys weren't hot then I'd be benching them


Cards are 7th in my half PPR league vs RBs, 17th in rush yards allowed, and 12th in TD allowed. Wilson may have a good game, but I wouldn’t be so sure about him eating, especially if the Cards load the box. 

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If you got kamaraed you might as roll Wilson out over types like dobbins .  Wilson just had a higher ceiling even with the 49ers rb usage being random plus it’s on Saturday.  You can’t wait to hear on Sunday about dobbins (Ingram active ?) or pollard etc

just gotta roll Wilson and hope that besides a td he also gets a few catches . Maybe he gets a few goaline tds 

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49 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Cards are 7th in my half PPR league vs RBs, 17th in rush yards allowed, and 12th in TD allowed. Wilson may have a good game, but I wouldn’t be so sure about him eating, especially if the Cards load the box. 

Shouldn’t be able to load the box as much with Kittle back 

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Ok, couple things from a depressed die hard Niner fan. 

#1 CJ Bethard isn't good! Period. (Neither is Mullens, but Mullens does have a lil more moxie and is willing to sling it when needed. He's the literal king of garbage time stats and that skews his perception for those that don't follow the Niners, and only look @ the box score.)

 

#2 Wilson has been impressive in his limited opportunities over the past few years! He makes quick decisions and hits the hole hard. That said, most of his carries have come when one of the other backs has been injured durring the game (seemingly weekly) and his opponent hasn't prepared for him in any way, so while he passes the eyeball test in small samples, it's those same small samples that catch the other team off guard if you will. The whole "Damn, who is this 3'rd/4'th stringer? He's not too bad!" Shanny has a love affair w/ him @ the goal line even when Mostert was playing, and for the life of me I just don't get it. IN NO WAY does he run angry like Mostert, and certainly doesn't have the speed to stretch the play to the pylon... yet he routinely came in after Mostert marched down the field... and got stuffed repeatedly. While he has 5-6 TD's, he should have a dozen given all his chances from the 1 yard line! (IMHO, he could start for a team, he has talent, but his success has been a cumulative effect of minimal film and unlimited goal line chances.)

 

#3. Shanny!!! Like many brilliant offensive minds, the Niners are routinely HORRIBLE in the Red Zone @ TD%. Why??? Shanny gets way too cute and it's infuriating as a fan of the team, let alone the fantasy aspect. (It's quite plausible that Wilson will march the field like Mostert did, then be pulled so Stone Feet Coleman can get stuffed, or "Jet" can have some trick play go horribly wrong. Lastly, they love to run the Jet sweeps w/ WR's or Kittle... Bottom line, when it looks like the workhorse Niners RB should have an easy TD, it rarely happens for the reasons mentioned.)

 

#4 This may be the most important of all... The Cardinals NEED to win to secure a playoff birth! They WILL stack the box given this fact, and the fact that CJ sucks (see #1). I can guarantee they will make CJ beat them, not Wilson. While it sounds good that Kittle is returning on paper, the lack of Debo means Peterson can shaddow one of Ayuik/ Kittle and they can double team or spy the other. I just don't see a scenario where the Niners have any sort of a lead and can feed Wilson! Could he get the gifted PI in the end zone 1 yard plunge? Sure, but I see this shaping up as a VERY low floor vs. mediocre ceiling kind of day. 

 

My prediction: 11 totes for 37 yards/ 2 receptions for 12 yards... and McGlinchey will miss his block yet again costing Wilson his only TD chance.  

 

Edited by LarryChip10
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36 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

Ok, couple things from a depressed die hard Niner fan. 

#1 CJ Bethard isn't good! Period. (Neither is Mullens, but Mullens does have a lil more moxie and is willing to sling it when needed. He's the literal king of garbage time stats and that skews his perception for those that don't follow the Niners, and only look @ the box score.)

 

#2 Wilson has been impressive in his limited opportunities over the past few years! He makes quick decisions and hits the hole hard. That said, most of his carries have come when one of the other backs has been injured durring the game (seemingly weekly) and his opponent hasn't prepared for him in any way, so while he passes the eyeball test in small samples, it's those same small samples that catch the other team off guard if you will. The whole "Damn, who is this 3'rd/4'th stringer? He's not too bad!" Shanny has a love affair w/ him @ the goal line even when Mostert was playing, and for the life of me I just don't get it. IN NO WAY does he run angry like Mostert, and certainly doesn't have the speed to stretch the play to the pylon... yet he routinely came in after Mostert marched down the field... and got stuffed repeatedly. While he has 5-6 TD's, he should have a dozen given all his chances from the 1 yard line! (IMHO, he could start for a team, he has talent, but his success has been a cumulative effect of minimal film and unlimited goal line chances.)

 

#3. Shanny!!! Like many brilliant offensive minds, the Niners are routinely HORRIBLE in the Red Zone @ TD%. Why??? Shanny gets way too cute and it's infuriating as a fan of the team, let alone the fantasy aspect. (It's quite plausible that Wilson will march the field like Mostert did, then be pulled so Stone Feet Coleman can get stuffed, or "Jet" can have some trick play go horribly wrong. Lastly, they love to run the Jet sweeps w/ WR's or Kittle... Bottom line, when it looks like the workhorse Niners RB should have an easy TD, it rarely happens for the reasons mentioned.)

 

#4 This may be the most important of all... The Cardinals NEED to win to secure a playoff birth! They WILL stack the box given this fact, and the fact that CJ sucks (see #1). I can guarantee they will make CJ beat them, not Wilson. While it sounds good that Kittle is returning on paper, the lack of Debo means Peterson can shaddow one of Ayuik/ Kittle and they can double team or spy the other. I just don't see a scenario where the Niners have any sort of a lead and can feed Wilson! Could he get the gifted PI in the end zone 1 yard plunge? Sure, but I see this shaping up as a VERY low floor vs. mediocre ceiling kind of day. 

 

My prediction: 11 totes for 37 yards/ 2 receptions for 12 yards... and McGlinchey will miss his block yet again costing Wilson his only TD chance.  

 

don't care, starting with CONFIDENCE.

Edited by TroutFister
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Should be noted that there is a lot of smart money taking SF +5. Almost 78% of the bets are on AZ, the line opened at AZ -3 & quickly settled -5, & has barely budged all week since suggesting the smart money is keeping the line balanced by betting heavy on SF at +5.

 

This is a typical trap game for the public betting markets. I don’t know if this is going to be an explosive Murray performance but Shanahan tends to get his guys up for late season games vs division rivals, in week 15 of 2018 SF played spoiler to the Seahawks.

 

Shanny will want to run the ball to set the tempo & knock Murray off his game. So Wilson easily could have a good day, and the fact that betting markets are against the public on this matchup makes me think Wilson might have a better day than expected.

Edited by worldclass
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40 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

Ok, couple things from a depressed die hard Niner fan. 

#1 CJ Bethard isn't good! Period. (Neither is Mullens, but Mullens does have a lil more moxie and is willing to sling it when needed. He's the literal king of garbage time stats and that skews his perception for those that don't follow the Niners, and only look @ the box score.)

 

#2 Wilson has been impressive in his limited opportunities over the past few years! He makes quick decisions and hits the hole hard. That said, most of his carries have come when one of the other backs has been injured durring the game (seemingly weekly) and his opponent hasn't prepared for him in any way, so while he passes the eyeball test in small samples, it's those same small samples that catch the other team off guard if you will. The whole "Damn, who is this 3'rd/4'th stringer? He's not too bad!" Shanny has a love affair w/ him @ the goal line even when Mostert was playing, and for the life of me I just don't get it. IN NO WAY does he run angry like Mostert, and certainly doesn't have the speed to stretch the play to the pylon... yet he routinely came in after Mostert marched down the field... and got stuffed repeatedly. While he has 5-6 TD's, he should have a dozen given all his chances from the 1 yard line! (IMHO, he could start for a team, he has talent, but his success has been a cumulative effect of minimal film and unlimited goal line chances.)

 

#3. Shanny!!! Like many brilliant offensive minds, the Niners are routinely HORRIBLE in the Red Zone @ TD%. Why??? Shanny gets way too cute and it's infuriating as a fan of the team, let alone the fantasy aspect. (It's quite plausible that Wilson will march the field like Mostert did, then be pulled so Stone Feet Coleman can get stuffed, or "Jet" can have some trick play go horribly wrong. Lastly, they love to run the Jet sweeps w/ WR's or Kittle... Bottom line, when it looks like the workhorse Niners RB should have an easy TD, it rarely happens for the reasons mentioned.)

 

#4 This may be the most important of all... The Cardinals NEED to win to secure a playoff birth! They WILL stack the box given this fact, and the fact that CJ sucks (see #1). I can guarantee they will make CJ beat them, not Wilson. While it sounds good that Kittle is returning on paper, the lack of Debo means Peterson can shaddow one of Ayuik/ Kittle and they can double team or spy the other. I just don't see a scenario where the Niners have any sort of a lead and can feed Wilson! Could he get the gifted PI in the end zone 1 yard plunge? Sure, but I see this shaping up as a VERY low floor vs. mediocre ceiling kind of day. 

 

My prediction: 11 totes for 37 yards/ 2 receptions for 12 yards... and McGlinchey will miss his block yet again costing Wilson his only TD chance.  

 

 Not saying that this won’t happen. But the very same thing can happen to RBs like bell, drake, swift, fournette, Henderson, hunt etc. they are all risks in that mid-low end RB2 tier. All year long we have all had to make gut decision of which RB to start in that tier. I personally think the numbers you posted are a bit low. I think his floor is probably around 7 points or so. 50 yards rushing with a couple receptions for 10-20 yards. But his ceiling is also 3 TDs like he had against the pats week 7. So up to you to decide which coin you want to flip this weekend.

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2 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

 Not saying that this won’t happen. But the very same thing can happen to RBs like bell, drake, swift, fournette, Henderson, hunt etc. they are all risks in that mid-low end RB2 tier. All year long we have all had to make gut decision of which RB to start in that tier. I personally think the numbers you posted are a bit low. I think his floor is probably around 7 points or so. 50 yards rushing with a couple receptions for 10-20 yards. But his ceiling is also 3 TDs like he had against the pats week 7. So up to you to decide which coin you want to flip this weekend.

I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here, just adding some insight above and beyond the rhetorical BS that we all read in the 1 or 2 sentence update on our respective FF sights when setting a lineup. I get that many RB's have been hurt recently, and many will have no choice but to play Wilson because of this. Is he a decent Flex play given he's "The Guy" this week? Sure. I'm just trying to warn you as a Mostert owner and die hard fan, that Shanny is very much like Mr. Hoodie in the sense that everything is lined up, yet the FB (Niners have the best BTW), the 3'rd stringer, and the damn LT could score before Wilson and I wouldn't be surprised. As Shanny has showed many times in the past, he tends to short circuit and call the strangest plays @ the goal line right after brilliant calls to march the whole field. (I have Wilson BTW, but I'm rolling w/ Pollard instead as my flex FWIW.) 

For those playing him, I wish you luck. NFC West division games are always fun to watch, but usually low scoring. 

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32 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here, just adding some insight above and beyond the rhetorical BS that we all read in the 1 or 2 sentence update on our respective FF sights when setting a lineup. I get that many RB's have been hurt recently, and many will have no choice but to play Wilson because of this. Is he a decent Flex play given he's "The Guy" this week? Sure. I'm just trying to warn you as a Mostert owner and die hard fan, that Shanny is very much like Mr. Hoodie in the sense that everything is lined up, yet the FB (Niners have the best BTW), the 3'rd stringer, and the damn LT could score before Wilson and I wouldn't be surprised. As Shanny has showed many times in the past, he tends to short circuit and call the strangest plays @ the goal line right after brilliant calls to march the whole field. (I have Wilson BTW, but I'm rolling w/ Pollard instead as my flex FWIW.) 

For those playing him, I wish you luck. NFC West division games are always fun to watch, but usually low scoring. 

All these coaches pull shenanigans. No offense but I have pollard and I think not knowing the status of Zeke is a HUGE risk. Pollard to me is waiting to start only if JRob is rulled out and Zeke is out. If Zeke is in then I’d rather roll with Henderson. That’s what this league has now turned into is everyone trying to be cute at the goal line from 1 yard out instead of handing it off to your RB for 3-4 straight rushing plays so these coaches can say how smart they are. Aaron Jones should have like 15 TDs this year if these coaches didn’t get cute.

Edited by StevenSC400
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8 hours ago, LarryChip10 said:

I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here, just adding some insight above and beyond the rhetorical BS that we all read in the 1 or 2 sentence update on our respective FF sights when setting a lineup. I get that many RB's have been hurt recently, and many will have no choice but to play Wilson because of this. Is he a decent Flex play given he's "The Guy" this week? Sure. I'm just trying to warn you as a Mostert owner and die hard fan, that Shanny is very much like Mr. Hoodie in the sense that everything is lined up, yet the FB (Niners have the best BTW), the 3'rd stringer, and the damn LT could score before Wilson and I wouldn't be surprised. As Shanny has showed many times in the past, he tends to short circuit and call the strangest plays @ the goal line right after brilliant calls to march the whole field. (I have Wilson BTW, but I'm rolling w/ Pollard instead as my flex FWIW.) 

For those playing him, I wish you luck. NFC West division games are always fun to watch, but usually low scoring. 

 

Yeah I appreciate the insight from a fan of the 49ers, but there's no chance I would play Pollard over Wilson if Zeke is active. Obviously, it's a crapshoot, but I'll take my odds with one RB getting carries instead of 2 splitting them (and maybe not even getting an even split)

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Just now, AnchorDown said:

The “top expert” rankings from Fantasy Pros love Wilson this week, seeing him in the RB7-9 range which seems crazy to me. Clearly that community is seeing something they like, though. 

Yeah that seems way too high. I'm just hoping for solid RB2 numbers honestly. 

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