2021 First Round Players

[Backdoor Slider 8,295]

4 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

I think people are forgetting Yelich is coming off Knee surgery. I think he will come back strong next year. Bellinger, I too am less confident but he's still a worthy first round talent in my opinion

Bellinger’s average was a fluke last season, but his 162 game average through this, his age 24 season, is .273/39 HR/14 SB (and 200+ RBI/runs). And as that lineup is currently constructed, he’s an easy top 10 pick. As a bonus, getting 10+ SBs out of your 1B is super valuable.

[Tommy Lee Jones 599]

Soto is the #1 overall pick next year.  To borrow a catch-phrase used by people beneath my contempt, you will know this if you’re “reading the room”.  

[brockpapersizer 11,999]

Gausman

[meh2 3,562]

3 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Based on his career stats to date, he's on a full season pace to put up 35 HRs with 18 Steals and a .310 batting average with elite run and rbi production on that deep jays line-up. That is easily a first rounder. Not to mention the fact that he's 22 and only going to get better.

He went 10th overall in a recent 2021 mock draft done by the fellas at nasty cast (and reputable fantasy analysts like Eric cross and Chris Clegg). https://www.spreaker.com/user/12828472/ep-240-2021-mock-draft

I think if he had a full-season without the injury, we'd be talking about him in the same conversation with Tatis

 

 

I think Bichette has the potential to be a 5 category stud next year, but I wouldn’t weigh the results of one mock draft with too much significance. I think we’ll end up seeing his ADP next year in the 20-30 range. I think his knee injury this year and the subsequent drop in production after returning will keep him out of the top 20 in most leagues. It’s obviously ridiculously early right now but I think I’ll be heavily targeting him in the late 2nd, early 3rd next year.

[buzzkilloton 248]

I can see Bichette in the 2nd round. Hes not going over guys like Jo-Ram,Cole,Freeman, or Beiber though. I expect Cody B and Yelich in the 2nd round as well. 1st round is very stacked next year I wont even mind picking at the back end. 

[KingJoffrey 928]

Bellinger only had 1 great season, actually more like an amazing half a season.  Lots of players have career years.  So far to me he seems like a high power mediocre average and a few steals player .. unworthy of a first round.

 

 

[tonycpsu 5,426]

6 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Bellinger only had 1 great season, actually more like an amazing half a season.  Lots of players have career years.  So far to me he seems like a high power mediocre average and a few steals player .. unworthy of a first round.

 

The "career year" argument is valid when saying a player won't repeat those gaudy numbers, but you can't just throw that season out to dismiss a hitter with a career .273 AVG as a "mediocre average" player.  For 5x5 player rater purposes, a .270-ish AVG is about a  full standard deviation away from replacement value in standard mixed leagues.  Combine that with how shallow 1B has been recently, the dual eligibility that allows for a more flexible strategy in the early rounds, the fact that he's still just 25, and the fact that he has a very fantasy-friendly power/speed combo -- even in this down-ish year he's pacing for 35+ bombs and 15+ SB -- and I would be thrilled to get him in the back half of the first round.

[KingJoffrey 928]

4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The "career year" argument is valid when saying a player won't repeat those gaudy numbers, but you can't just throw that season out to dismiss a hitter with a career .273 AVG as a "mediocre average" player.  For 5x5 player rater purposes, a .270-ish AVG is about a  full standard deviation away from replacement value in standard mixed leagues.  Combine that with how shallow 1B has been recently, the dual eligibility that allows for a more flexible strategy in the early rounds, the fact that he's still just 25, and the fact that he has a very fantasy-friendly power/speed combo -- even in this down-ish year he's pacing for 35+ bombs and 15+ SB -- and I would be thrilled to get him in the back half of the first round.

 

Well if you use the whole "First base is shallow" argument, than I'd give a shout out to my boy Freddie Freeman.  One of the most consistent players in fantasy baseball.  Won't help you much in SB but his other stats are simply sublime.  

[tonycpsu 5,426]

I mean, that's just one part of my argument, but sure, I loves me some Freddie as well.  I'd still put Bellinger several slots ahead because of those other factors.

[KingJoffrey 928]

5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I mean, that's just one part of my argument, but sure, I loves me some Freddie as well.  I'd still put Bellinger several slots ahead because of those other factors.

 

To each his own Papa Homer, Right now I have to include Freddie in the first round.  

1) he's going to finish as the first overall player   (Surprise!) I like to try to keep things simple.  The first overall player is first for a reason.

2) He's always been consistent.  This isn't a breakout year.  He always gives you a good batting average, HRs and counting stats.  He usually finishes in the top 20.

3) There is a shortage of good reliable first basemen.  We live in a complicated age where there's more depth at SS.

4) his team is awesome to really help those counting stats.  I don't know where this whole unbalanced schedule thing is going to land up.  But the NL East has garbage for pitching.  There's 4 teams with ERAs over 4.70, besides the Braves.  I checked and it really surprised me.  Scherzer is starting to fall off, Corbin is garbage now,  Strasberg always has injury concerns.  This is a division with a lot of Rick Porcellos.  It's probably a reason the Braves offense has been so great.  I don't see it improving much next year.  Maybe the Marlins will improve with Sixto and Lopez and Alcantara.  But overall I like his division.

[Sine_cera 6,239]

Guys who I hope fall out of the first round so they can be great value in the second:

Yelich

Bellinger

Arenado

Cole

What these players have done in previous seasons means more to me than what they did in this bizarre 60-game season. 

[brockpapersizer 11,999]

2 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

Guys who I hope fall out of the first round so they can be great value in the second:

Yelich

Bellinger

Arenado

Cole

What these players have done in previous seasons means more to me than what they did in this bizarre 60-game season. 

 

Lindor to this list too 

[KilloWertz 2,546]

4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Lindor to this list too 

Agreed.  While he hasn't been that great this season, he still should be an obvious first rounder, but some people might be scared off.  I'd happily swoop in and take him in the 2nd round if I played in a redraft league.

[En Votto Veritas 500]

I think 2021 is going to have a weirder first round than many years past because fantasy baseball managers tend to have very short term memories and this season was really odd.  At quick glance, a 16-team league first round might look like:

5-category studs (picks 1-7 in whatever order you like): Acuna, Betts, Soto, Tatis, Turner, Story, JoRam.

Guys on discount (picks 8-14 in whatever order you like): Trout, Arenado, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Freeman.  (We all would be wise to recall from the 2020 first round that discounting superstars like Jose Ramirez for one bad half is a terrible plan)

Ace SPs (mixed into the above two tiers): Bieber, DeGrom, Cole.

Honestly I'd be ok with any of them and that means I think we'll see a lot of different rankings and drafts.  For 12 team leagues I'd drop 4 guys from the discount rack into the second round and hope that you end up with the 10th, 11th, or 12th pick so you can effectively get two first rounders on the turn.  I mean, would you really be upset with Yelich/Bellinger for your 1-2?  Or Arenado/Lindor?  

[Ultraa 53]

Trout, Soto, Acuna, Betts, Tatis, JoRam, Freeman, Story, Turner.

Top 9, no top 10.

 

 

[Slatykamora 2,843]

Per 150 Game Rate since 2018

1. Trout .298, 46 HRs, 17 SBs

2. Acuna .281 BA, 39 HRs, 29 SBs ***

3. Betts .314 BA 34 HRs, 25 SBs

4. Story .293 BA, 35 HRs, 27 SBs

5. Tatis .302 BA, 39 HRs, 27 SBs ***

6. Soto .295 BA, 33 HRs 11 SBs ***

8. J. Ramirez .267 BA, 35 HRs, 30 SBs

8. Turner .291 BA, 22 HRs, 40 SBs

9. Yelich .308, 41 HRs, 25 SBs

10. Lindor .278 BA, 32 HRs, 22 SBs

11. Bellinger .276 BA, 34 HRs, 14 SBs

12. Arenado .299 BA, 36 HRs, 2 SBs

 

***= Career started after 2018 opening day

Guys I have ranked 3 thru 9 are very interchangeable. 

These are 12 best hitters. IMO. Everyone but Arenado has a realistic expectation to be 5 cat guys of various sorts. Arenado only for his famously high floor. I don't see how you can justify Bichette. His upside is not that much higher(if at all) then most of these guys, but with a ton more risk.

In-fact. You can probably justify fading a pitcher in the 1st round unless you are on or right next to the turn. Not sure i want to lose out on a 5 cat hitter.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Slatykamora

[kidtwentytwo 5,512]

Anyone hitting .205 the previous year ain’t being taken in the first round.  I don’t care if it was for two months.  People are too reactionary 

[FantasyGeek2018 461]

3 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Anyone hitting .205 the previous year ain’t being taken in the first round.  I don’t care if it was for two months.  People are too reactionary 

I will take Yelich in the first round. Not top 5 pick but somewhere in the first

[kidtwentytwo 5,512]

Doing this on mobile so I hope I don’t miss anyone. 
My guess...

1a Acuna

1b Tatis

3 Betts

4. Soto

5. Trout 

6.  Jo Ram

7  Turner

8  Story

9  Bieber

10 Degrom

11.  Cole

12 Freeman

 

also will see;  Bauer, Bellinger, Lindor, Machado

possibly Darvish, Mondesi

 

[bluefrogguy 274]

Yeah Machado will be in the conversation at the end of round 1/ beginning of round 2. 

[UberRebel 580]

3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Doing this on mobile so I hope I don’t miss anyone. 
My guess...

1a Acuna

1b Tatis

3 Betts

4. Soto

5. Trout 

6.  Jo Ram

7  Turner

8  Story

9  Bieber

10 Degrom

11.  Cole

12 Freeman

 

also will see;  Bauer, Bellinger, Lindor, Machado

possibly Darvish, Mondesi

 

 

Wow, Mondesi? Really?

[kidtwentytwo 5,512]

3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

Wow, Mondesi? Really?

i wouldn’t, but I think you’ll see him in the back end of the first in 14+ team leagues sometimes.  He’s by far the best sb option.  

[bradwatson 1,613]

Love the Bichette love ITT as an owner of him for several years now, but he's not ready to be considered a first rounder unless you are talking dynasty formats. Even then I wouldn't put him in there. He has potential to be a superstar but at this point it's just potential, and you shouldn't be drafting first rounders based on untapped potential.

 

I think Soto is the best hitter in the game at this point but would still put Acuna #1 over him because of the speed. They are clearly my 1-2. Trout is #3 for me because he's still a god. Seems a lot of people see overreacting to Yelich and Bellinger not crushing the strange, shortened season. They are still clear mid first rounders for me

Glad to finally see Story get the first round love he deserves. He's awesome, Tatis as well.

Edited September 28, 2020 by bradwatson

[Yanks#1 563]

I’ll be curious to see where the consensus has Wander Franco sliding in next year. I think he could be a pretty early promotion after that first service year window unless a surprise contract signing happens and he’s in there opening day

[4catztoomany 97]

14 minutes ago, Yanks#1 said:

I’ll be curious to see where the consensus has Wander Franco sliding in next year. I think he could be a pretty early promotion after that first service year window unless a surprise contract signing happens and he’s in there opening day

I have to imagine there will be a slight correction since the overdrafting of Vlad before he even had an at bat.  Rookies are likely to struggle, how much do you want to gamble on him finding his upside in his rookie year? I'm also pretty risk aversive and likely the more consistent bats/pitchers.  But there are definitely many people that will be willing to gamble.