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2021 Keeper/Dynasty Targets


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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

Impossible to answer right now. If Ingram and Edwards are both gone (and they don't bring anyone else in), then he could shoot way up. If they resign Edwards, it caps his upside a little. 

They would simply have to tender a contract to Gus, as he's a RFA and can be brought back for practically minimal compensation (being undrafted)...

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Gibson easy 

Most of the examples, in this thread, should already be on Dynasty teams unless you have very small benches. 

Darnell Mooney  Anthony McFarland  Gabriel Davis  Andy Isabella  DeeJay Dallas

1 minute ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

Who is a better dynasty prospect ... Akers or Dobbins?

Right now, I'd say Dobbins for the upside of him potentially taking over that backfield (I think he's the better overall RB too). Akers is certainly looking good, but Henderson and Brown aren't going anywhere. 

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3 hours ago, TroutFister said:

AJ Dillon is someone i'm stashing, no way green bay brings back both aaron jones and williams...and with jones getting a new agent and how he's literally sharing touches with williams...it seems like both green bay and jones are moving on. 

If I am jones I move on... tampa?

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4 hours ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

Who is a better dynasty prospect ... Akers or Dobbins?

 

Tough question.  At this point I would have to say Akers simply because he seems to be running away with that backfield...for now...This answer could easily change by the start of next season though. 

I have them both pretty similar as it is. 

 

For what it's worth, fantasy football pros has dobbins at 14 in dynasty rankings and akers at 18 so not much difference. 

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I know trades are probably over for the rest of this season, but would anyone take a shot at Darnold?  I think that Gase and co really screwed him up and if he gets to a better situation he can turn things around.  I'm not saying he will be a superstar, but I think he could be a low end QB1 in the right situation. 

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5 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

I know trades are probably over for the rest of this season, but would anyone take a shot at Darnold?  I think that Gase and co really screwed him up and if he gets to a better situation he can turn things around.  I'm not saying he will be a superstar, but I think he could be a low end QB1 in the right situation. 

 

I think you got another 3 month to aquire Darnold for cheap. As soon as the trade deadline opens up, I will be trying to get him. I'm sure he will be traded and I kind of expect the Adam Gase effect to take place. Will he ever be an elite QB in this league? Probably not, but I'm pretty sure he can be a solid NFL QB. He's still only 23 years old and has shown some flashes from time to time. He just needs good coaching.

 

5 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Also, thoughts on Irv Smith Jr.  He's probably a guy who has been picked up in most dynasty leagues but could be had cheap in a trade. 

 

I don't know about Irv Smith. Will probably take at least another year till he is a viable week2week TE option. Rudolph still has a contract and he does not seem to be faded out. Thielen, JJ and Cook all demand some number of target and what's left he has to share with Rudolph. Will he have some boom games? For sure, but you won't be able to start him every week or know when those games occurs. WIthout some changes in the passing game (Thielen leaves, Rudolph leaves) I can't see him being viable.

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10 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Right now, I'd say Dobbins for the upside of him potentially taking over that backfield (I think he's the better overall RB too). Akers is certainly looking good, but Henderson and Brown aren't going anywhere. 

Not sure Henderson/Brown matter.  They are backups.

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1 hour ago, thebadferret said:

I think you got another 3 month to aquire Darnold for cheap. As soon as the trade deadline opens up, I will be trying to get him. I'm sure he will be traded and I kind of expect the Adam Gase effect to take place. Will he ever be an elite QB in this league? Probably not, but I'm pretty sure he can be a solid NFL QB. He's still only 23 years old and has shown some flashes from time to time. He just needs good coaching.

That's a good shout, I hadn't realised he is that young. He's not a truly mobile QB like the Lamars and Kylers, but in a 2QB/SF league (or a 16 team like yours), he's worth a gamble - if he can get to a decent team.

On the other hand, the NFL practice squads are littered with QBs who weren't bad but just not good enough.

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5 hours ago, thebadferret said:

I don't know about Irv Smith. Will probably take at least another year till he is a viable week2week TE option. Rudolph still has a contract and he does not seem to be faded out. Thielen, JJ and Cook all demand some number of target and what's left he has to share with Rudolph. Will he have some boom games? For sure, but you won't be able to start him every week or know when those games occurs. WIthout some changes in the passing game (Thielen leaves, Rudolph leaves) I can't see him being viable.

That's fair.  Not to mention the offense will of course run through Cook.

At this point I'm just stashing TEs and hoping one becomes half decent with TE being so bad.

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15 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Right now, I'd say Dobbins for the upside of him potentially taking over that backfield (I think he's the better overall RB too). Akers is certainly looking good, but Henderson and Brown aren't going anywhere. 

 

This was discussed on the latest FantasyPros podcast, but the Ravens are never going to role with Dobbins as a bell cow. Gus Edwards isn't going anywhere and they probably look to bring in a third back when Ingram leaves.

Akers has a way better shot at a workhorse role IMO, although I like Dobbins more from a talent perspective.

Both are obviously great dynasty pieces. 

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37 minutes ago, jcedwards said:

What about Njoku or Jarwin? 
 

Njoku could be moved, and depending on the spot, could see a big boost in value. And Jarwin could slide right back into the TE1 in DAL. 

 

Njoku has the potential to be a star if he lands in the right spot. Would have loved him in GB before the Tonyan emergence.

Jarwin is absolutely someone to stash because he's the guy in DAL assuming he's healthy. 

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1 hour ago, MingusDew said:

 

This was discussed on the latest FantasyPros podcast, but the Ravens are never going to role with Dobbins as a bell cow. Gus Edwards isn't going anywhere and they probably look to bring in a third back when Ingram leaves.

Akers has a way better shot at a workhorse role IMO, although I like Dobbins more from a talent perspective.

Both are obviously great dynasty pieces. 

All good points. Maybe the bigger issue is that the true lead back for Baltimore will continue to be Lamar Jackson.

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1 hour ago, MingusDew said:

 

This was discussed on the latest FantasyPros podcast, but the Ravens are never going to role with Dobbins as a bell cow. Gus Edwards isn't going anywhere and they probably look to bring in a third back when Ingram leaves.

Akers has a way better shot at a workhorse role IMO, although I like Dobbins more from a talent perspective.

Both are obviously great dynasty pieces. 

Why not?

Ray Rice was the bell cow for Harbaugh after his rookie season 2009-2013

Forsett got bell cow treatment in 2014

The Ravens offense was 25th in attempts in 2015 - split between Forsett and Buck Allen

The Ravens offense was 30th in attempts in 2016 - Terrence West got 60% of the RB touches

2017 was somewhat of a split between Collins and Allen.  Collins wasn't the full time starter until Week 5 that year.  He was getting around 20 opportunities per game from Week 5 on.

2018 was all over the place - Jackson's rookie year where he took over mid-season.

2019 - 60/50 split between Ingram and Edwards

2020 - Dobbins, Edwards, Hill, Ingram all involved.

Looking at the Raven's history under Harbaugh, when he had a premier talent at RB, he used them as a bell cow.  Rice got bell cow treatment after his rookie season.  Forsett was the bell cow in 2014.  Collins became the bell cow once he took over in 2017.  

When Harbaugh has used a split it seems it's because he either has mediocre talent on the roster or he isn't ready to plug his rookie RB into a full time role.  If history shows us anything, I would expect monster usage for Dobbins next season.  Ray Rice got 254 carries and 101 targets his sophomore season.  Not projecting that for Dobbins because he plays with Lamar who vultures rushing attempts, but I would be interested to hear what the reasons were for "Ravens are never going to roll with Dobbins as a bell cow."

 

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34 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Why not?

Ray Rice was the bell cow for Harbaugh after his rookie season 2009-2013

Forsett got bell cow treatment in 2014

The Ravens offense was 25th in attempts in 2015 - split between Forsett and Buck Allen

The Ravens offense was 30th in attempts in 2016 - Terrence West got 60% of the RB touches

2017 was somewhat of a split between Collins and Allen.  Collins wasn't the full time starter until Week 5 that year.  He was getting around 20 opportunities per game from Week 5 on.

2018 was all over the place - Jackson's rookie year where he took over mid-season.

2019 - 60/50 split between Ingram and Edwards

2020 - Dobbins, Edwards, Hill, Ingram all involved.

Looking at the Raven's history under Harbaugh, when he had a premier talent at RB, he used them as a bell cow.  Rice got bell cow treatment after his rookie season.  Forsett was the bell cow in 2014.  Collins became the bell cow once he took over in 2017.  

When Harbaugh has used a split it seems it's because he either has mediocre talent on the roster or he isn't ready to plug his rookie RB into a full time role.  If history shows us anything, I would expect monster usage for Dobbins next season.  Ray Rice got 254 carries and 101 targets his sophomore season.  Not projecting that for Dobbins because he plays with Lamar who vultures rushing attempts, but I would be interested to hear what the reasons were for "Ravens are never going to roll with Dobbins as a bell cow."

 

 

Greg Roman promoted to OC in 2019. Just seems like the kind of guy that wants a ton of volume for his running game and he prefers multiple backs so that the load isn't too heavy for one guy.

FWIW I think that a 60/40 slit is viable here (although I wouldn't consider that bell cow status). Just don't think it's fair to suggest that he has a clearer path to backfield dominance than Akers.

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50 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

 

Greg Roman promoted to OC in 2019. Just seems like the kind of guy that wants a ton of volume for his running game and he prefers multiple backs so that the load isn't too heavy for one guy.

FWIW I think that a 60/40 slit is viable here (although I wouldn't consider that bell cow status). Just don't think it's fair to suggest that he has a clearer path to backfield dominance than Akers.

I would definitely give Akers higher odds to be "the guy" next season for sure.  I just didn't see a reason why Dobbins couldn't be also.

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Just now, Fort4242 said:

I would definitely give Akers higher odds to be "the guy" next season for sure.  I just didn't see a reason why Dobbins couldn't be also.

 

Suppose he could be. But there's no indication that the Gus Bus is going away (and he's actually looked really good this year) and it remains to be seen if Ingram will be replaced.

I do think it's a Greg Roman issue more than a Harbaugh issue. He wants 500 rushes a season and he wants that spread across a RBBC.

Considering how talented Dobbins is I think that if it's just him and Gus that's great for fantasy.

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4 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I would definitely give Akers higher odds to be "the guy" next season for sure.  I just didn't see a reason why Dobbins couldn't be also.

I was high on both coming into this year, but higher on Akers for 2020 and higher on Dobbins for future value. Now that has shifted, I would take Akers by a fair amount for future value. Dobbins prob has the slightly better talent (it is v close tho) but I much prefer the Akers situation. As others have alluded to, Dobbins will be part of a committee, with a quite solid Gus and Lamar is the real #1 rusher in this offense...and the Ravens/Roman scheme just doesn't use the RB in the passing game nearly enough.

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38 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Well people who slept on Bowden in dynasty league likely missed out now after that game.

You think he actually becomes something? I mean I hope you are right cause I have him but it took a lot of injuries for him to get a shot. 

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36 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I was high on both coming into this year, but higher on Akers for 2020 and higher on Dobbins for future value. Now that has shifted, I would take Akers by a fair amount for future value. Dobbins prob has the slightly better talent (it is v close tho) but I much prefer the Akers situation. As others have alluded to, Dobbins will be part of a committee, with a quite solid Gus and Lamar is the real #1 rusher in this offense...and the Ravens/Roman scheme just doesn't use the RB in the passing game nearly enough.

I went back and looked at RB targets when Roman was OC and you're absolutely right about that.  Consistently near the bottom of the league.  We know when they have a dynamic RB McVay can make them a star.  Agree wholeheartedly with Akers>Dobbins short and long term.  I see the Ravens RB contract situation and get excited with Gus as an FA and Ingram could save $9mm if cut this off-season. 

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