Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

John Means 2021 Outlook


StartYourStuds
 Share

Recommended Posts

I got to watch this and can't tell you how good he was. He got the first strike on almost every batter.  Mariners didn't have a chance.  Unreal performance that was actually very unlikely not to be a perfect game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The man has a 1.37 ERA and 0.67 WHIP with 50 Ks through 46 innings...a 4-0 record. I'm sure his numbers will regress some, but good grief Means is dialed in right now. This is just a continuation of what we saw in September last year, and he was undoubtedly a bargain for every team that owns him. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saw every pitch too - dominance from beginning to end.  Faced the minimum batters.... seems impossible you can lose a perfect game on a strikeout.. but thats the rules I guess.  Heard his post-game and he was almost speechless and spoke highly of his dad being with him; you could tell it meant so much to him.  Great performance. 

Now, let's hope he doesn't start pitching like Musgrove after his no hitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, spivey17323 said:

John means business. Sleeper up of the year. Congrats boys! 

Sleeper?  No.  He was great in 2019.  Got off to a rough start in the 2020 60 game sprint season but ended in stellar style.  But true some people got confused by early 2020 [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Sleeper?  No.  He was great in 2019.  Got off to a rough start in the 2020 60 game sprint season but ended in stellar style.  But true some people got confused by early 2020 [...]

He was super slept on in my league. Grabbed him April 2nd and never looked back lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dang it! I picked up Trevor Rogers over him (and I could’ve had both) because everyone warned me not to take Orioles pitchers in the AL East 😭

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Sleeper?  No.  He was great in 2019.  Got off to a rough start in the 2020 60 game sprint season but ended in stellar style.  But true some people got confused by early 2020 [...]

Sleeper? Yes. His 2019 season was widely regarded as a fluke because of his FIP and xFIP, and then he got off to the rough 2020 start. Many discounted his September because there have been other players who were overdrafted because hot Septembers. Add to that the fact that he plays for a terrible Baltimore in the beastly AL East. All that adds up to a guy drafted in the 200s with a lot of skepticism surrounding him.

Heck yes, John Means was a sleeper this year. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Sleeper? Yes. His 2019 season was widely regarded as a fluke because of his FIP and xFIP, and then he got off to the rough 2020 start. Many discounted his September because there have been other players who were overdrafted because hot Septembers. Add to that the fact that he plays for a terrible Baltimore in the beastly AL East. All that adds up to a guy drafted in the 200s with a lot of skepticism surrounding him.

Heck yes, John Means was a sleeper this year. 

Hot "Septembers" is in a full season.  September last year was just getting into the rhythm of the season as in it was only the 2nd month. 

And most people in leagues honestly don't give a fig about FIPs of any kind.  They believe if someone has proven he can do it, then he can do it.  Not FIP sense, common sense.  We need more of that in baseball and among fans.  So no, he was not a "sleeper" unless it was to extreme saberheads more interested in their arcane indicators of "possible" future performance based on the premise that human beings never ever change, learn or grow.  Or do what we just saw them do in reality.  Pitch damn well.

I'm not trying to be personal at all.  Just speaking generally.  Because honestly time after time I hear so-and-so projects to regress or to do better based on this or that metric only to have the opposite occur.  Someone should start looking at these metrics and realize all the false readings they are getting from some of them instead of blindly believing them.  Or even that sometimes pitchers change their grips and deliveries etc to improve on their performance based on these very metrics thus making the original metrics a false positive.

If a pitcher looks good to me, has done good according to his actual record in reality and has the mound presence you need to see in any top tier pitcher; I'll take that over any metric you can cite. 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The term "sleeper" has nothing to do at all with this tiresome pro/anti-sabermetrics derail -- it is a label that applies to a player that people think can outearn their draft day value, or a player that has already done so based on the difference between their ADP and their performance.  ADP isn't some galaxy-brained Statcast number -- it's a reflection of what actual humans believe a player's value is in drafts.  If you personally had Means higher than the crowd, regardless of whether you used only advanced analytics, only the eye test, or anything in between to come to that conclusion, then that's wonderful for you and your team, but it doesn't change the fact that he was pushed down in drafts heading into the 2021 season, which made him a sleeper by the definition the fantasy community uses.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

26 first pitch strikes of the minimum 27 batters faced. You just love to see it. And he said in the post-game interview he wasn't feeling his changeup until the latter half of the game. I started listening in the 5th inning and I cannot tell you how many times he got a batter to 0-2. The man was just LOCKED IN.

Beautiful story with his father having passed away in August. Exciting to see him over the full course of this year as a young player and as someone that owns him in fantasy :)

Edited by FinalProphet
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Hot "Septembers" is in a full season.  September last year was just getting into the rhythm of the season as in it was only the 2nd month. 

And most people in leagues honestly don't give a fig about FIPs of any kind.  They believe if someone has proven he can do it, then he can do it.  Not FIP sense, common sense.  We need more of that in baseball and among fans.  So no, he was not a "sleeper" unless it was to extreme saberheads more interested in their arcane indicators of "possible" future performance based on the premise that human beings never ever change, learn or grow.  Or do what we just saw them do in reality.  Pitch damn well.

I'm not trying to be personal at all.  Just speaking generally.  Because honestly time after time I hear so-and-so projects to regress or to do better based on this or that metric only to have the opposite occur.  Someone should start looking at these metrics and realize all the false readings they are getting from some of them instead of blindly believing them.  Or even that sometimes pitchers change their grips and deliveries etc to improve on their performance based on these very metrics thus making the original metrics a false positive.

If a pitcher looks good to me, has done good according to his actual record in reality and has the mound presence you need to see in any top tier pitcher; I'll take that over any metric you can cite. 

That entire rant is a bunch of blah-blah-blah because your average fantasy baseball player didn’t even know Means had a hot September. The average fan didn’t even know John Means, especially the ones who are so little invested as to not even consider FIP. What was his ADP? He was be drafted after pick 200...if that doesn’t make him a sleeper, then what does? You go on this entire anti-sabre rant (and I’m not a big fan of most of it, but FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are useful), but you ignore two realities: the average fan didn’t know who Means was...and his ADP. YES he was a sleeper. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to throw doubt on the accomplishment of a no hitter but this year is it really that impressive? Means threw the third one so far this year and that doesn't even count Madbums unofficial 7 inning one.

Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit have team batting averages of less than .210. Funny that CLEV and Seattle are two of the three that were no hit.. All three teams have the DH so the pitchers aren't dragging them down.

Close to half the teams have an average of less than .230. Only 4 teams break .250.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Not to throw doubt on the accomplishment of a no hitter but this year is it really that impressive? Means threw the third one so far this year and that doesn't even count Madbums unofficial 7 inning one.

Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit have team batting averages of less than .210. Funny that CLEV and Seattle are two of the three that were no hit.. All three teams have the DH so the pitchers aren't dragging them down.

Close to half the teams have an average of less than .230. Only 4 teams break .250.

Any game in which is pitcher allows no hits and issues no walks is extremely impressive. Even as bad as Seattle’s team ba is, yes it’s impressive. Imho. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

Not to throw doubt on the accomplishment of a no hitter but this year is it really that impressive? Means threw the third one so far this year and that doesn't even count Madbums unofficial 7 inning one.

Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit have team batting averages of less than .210. Funny that CLEV and Seattle are two of the three that were no hit.. All three teams have the DH so the pitchers aren't dragging them down.

Close to half the teams have an average of less than .230. Only 4 teams break .250.

If you watched the game - his no hitter (that should've been a perfect game) is one of the most impressively pitched games I've ever watched;  and no.... I'm not saying that because I own shares of Means, it was just ridiculously impressive.

Edited by IlliniGuy76
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ace_King said:

1.03 career WHIP over 248 IP. Moreover, to date, he has improved it each year. 1.80 in 2018 (albeit 3.1 IP), 1.14, 0.99, and down to 0.67. 

He reminds me a lot of Cliff Lee. 

 

Spotting fastballs, throwing darts with his changeup low and away in the strike zone to righties, nasty curve. It was very impressive even in a depressed .ba environment.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

[...] He has had such a rough road with the loss of his dad.

I think he will regress to the "mean" this year...pitching in the summer in Camden vs. Boston and New York is no joke. That said expect him to continue to return value and finish as a Top 30 pitcher this year. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

His ADP was around 280 so he was a sleeper that all the 'perts were sleeping on...if you got him around there, you already won your league

Edited by Dr. Whom
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember listening to the CBS Fantasy Baseball podcast last night (I don't always ha) and, after the no-hitter, they were 'ready to put John Means into the top 40 of starting pitchers'. Lol funny how those rankings go. A lot of struggling vets will stay up at the top for the half the season while legitimate breakouts spend 75% of the year moving their way up to the top. Makes sense but I think Means has made a case to be in the Zack Wheeler, Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy tier (top 25/30).

We'll see. Easy for me to overreact to a no-hitter, as I have him, but I wonder how high he'll be ranked in mid-June.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...