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John Means 2021 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

I remember listening to the CBS Fantasy Baseball podcast last night (I don't always ha) and, after the no-hitter, they were 'ready to put John Means into the top 40 of starting pitchers'. Lol funny how those rankings go. A lot of struggling vets will stay up at the top for the half the season while legitimate breakouts spend 75% of the year moving their way up to the top. Makes sense but I think Means has made a case to be in the Zack Wheeler, Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy tier (top 25/30).

Different rankings sources have different methodologies and biases.  Some more or less approximate a weighted three-year average of performance that lags the player's current market value, while some seem to more closely track performance over the last few starts that tracks the player's current value in a very noisy and some would say reactionary way.  I see merit to both approaches, but CBS in particular tends to be so conservative on their rankings to the point of not being useful for much of anything.

5 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Pitcherlist had him top 40 on day 1 

Pitcherlist is a little better in terms of being willing to push players up / down based on more recent trends, but this isn't correct.  Means' rankings in their ranks for the preseason and first weeks of the season were as follows:

2021-02-16: 43
2021-03-17: 47
2021-03-29: 45
2021-04-05: 43
2021-04-12: 39
2021-04-19: 36
2021-04-26: 34
2021-05-03: 29

The upward trend is clear here, but it looks more like a reaction to what Means is doing this season rather than predicting a huge breakout.  Of course, even the preseason rankings in the mid to late 40s shows they had a lot more confidence in Means than the market did, so for that, they do deserve some credit.  But I think once you get past the top 30 or so, you can make an argument for about 30 different guys in the next 30 slots in basically any order and not be too close to being wrong.

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Another thing about his ranking is most leagues use wins instead of quality starts and I presume most rankings factor wins into their methodology so the fact that Means plays for one of the worst teams in a tough division lowers his ranking compared to what it would be if he played on a good or even average team. 

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5 hours ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

We'll see. Easy for me to overreact to a no-hitter, as I have him, but I wonder how high he'll be ranked in mid-June.

It’s not just the no-hitter, though. He was pitching like a stud even before the no-no. 

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

It’s not just the no-hitter, though. He was pitching like a stud even before the no-no. 

Not that player rankers mean much of anything but I think he was the #10 or something SP on ESPN before the no-no. 

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Means follows up his no hitter with 6 shutout innings.  Only 3 Ks, but the Mets offense doesn't strike out a lot.

He gets the strikeout-prone Rays next, which should help him get some of those Ks back.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Honestly he hasnt looked himself since the no hitter just been less sharp than the first month of the season. I think skipping a start or two could be best for his long term season outlook to really refresh that arm, he's been throwing a lot of pitches

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46 minutes ago, BMcP said:

“Left shoulder fatigue”

Can't he just throw right handed? Man players these days are soft. 

 

But seriously, the Orioles can't have anything nice

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15 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Can't he just throw right handed? Man players these days are soft. 

 

But seriously, the Orioles can't have anything nice

Where’s Venditte at?

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This seems like great news given the worse alternatives, but how long should we expect him to be out if all goes according to plan? I read the O's manager compare this to the same injury he had in 2019...how much time did he miss then?

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1 hour ago, ZMan17 said:

This seems like great news given the worse alternatives, but how long should we expect him to be out if all goes according to plan? I read the O's manager compare this to the same injury he had in 2019...how much time did he miss then?

1-2weeks

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  • 3 weeks later...
12 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

I'm not surprised by this - but the positive is no long-term injury & he's coming back.  Because..as we all know... JOHN MEANS BUSINESS!!!!

Yeah, I'd rather have him for the entire second half than come back too soon and have the shoulder nag.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Struggled in his rehab outings.  Let's see how he does vs. Tampa tonight.  I am erring on the side of caution with him until he proves he's healthy.  He'll likely be on somewhat of a pitch count tonight.  I don't like the risk/reward proposition for tonight.

Edited by PirateFan86
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I am PO'd I did not bench him. IN 2019 when he went on DL he came back and sucked a few starts then got it going again.  My prediction, unless he is playing Texas, he will have a couple more s---y starts then turn it around. I am just going by the past .  

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There's some pretty compelling video out there of him repeatedly rubbing/pressing his fingers in the web of his glove for some reason during his no hitter. I think it's widely accepted he was a sticky beneficiary but to what extent his struggles in his last start were related to the crackdown or what is lingering injury related rust, who knows. His spin rates were down on all pitches yesterday.

His next start is against the Marlins and after that Detroit. If he looks shaky in those starts, it may be a bumpy ride...

Edited by Wieties
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Anyone optimistic on Means rest of season  ?

Been a bit of a roller coaster ride over his career and this season. Mixed results since coming back although last start was seemingly cruising until giving up a 3 run HR his last inning. I'm mixed on my thoughts ROS.

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