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2 Early Mocks 2021 ADP


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Observations:

1. I think Acuna edges ahead of Mookie at 1.01 when real drafts begin, but I do think Betts is the right pick there.

2. Conventional wisdom is saying that it's better to have a later draft position since there are so many great 1st round picks to choose from, and I'm really not loving what I see for the 1-4 slots in round 2.

3. Imagine going Yelich-Bellinger at the 1-2 turn for the ultimate "Last Year's Trash, This Year's Treasure" opening.

4. Mondesi's torrential finish has him as a late third rounder, and I can't say it's wrong in 5x5.

5. 2020 was a tough season for high-end 3B picks, with guys like Arenado, Rendon, and Bregman disappointing.  The result is significant discounts on these guys if you're willing to discard 2020 as a fluke, but they all have question marks, so I think I might just be inclined to hang back and take advantage of the value in the middle to late rounds with guys like Suarez, Chapman, and Bohm, any of whom I'd be comfortable as my starting 3B.

6. Abreu at 37 looks like a significant overcorrection.  He was always somewhat underrated, and the team around him certainly has gotten better, but I just don't see him sustaining that pace over 162, and 1B turned out to not be as shallow as we thought it'd be.

A lot will happen between now and real drafts, but certainly some interesting trends to keep an eye on as we begin the offseason.

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https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks/ Observations: 1. I think Acuna edges ahead of Mookie at 1.01 when real drafts begin, but I do think Betts is the right pick there. 2. Conventi

FInally god around to seeing this. Too high: - I'm not taking Tatis top 3.  His cold streak to end the year scared me too much.  I'll go Acuna, Trout, Betts, and Soto before him, because I t

Couple of things I noticed right off the bat.   1. I agree with Tony that Yelich/Belli at the 1-2 turn could be a huge pay off 2. Seeing Buehler at SP10 seems WAY too late for me.. espe

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Couple of things I noticed right off the bat.

 

1. I agree with Tony that Yelich/Belli at the 1-2 turn could be a huge pay off

2. Seeing Buehler at SP10 seems WAY too late for me.. especially seeing names like Darvish, Nola and the aging Scherzer ahead of him. I see Buehler as fighting for the top 5 SP.

3. Curious as to why Story is still a first rounder but Arenado dropped so much.. was there any regression to cause this? Granted, I know his year during the short 2020 season wasn't record breaking, but there are no other signs of regression. I would still feel comfortable taking him around the 2nd round as a 3B/CI.

4. Flaherty is 2 rounds too low. Again.. like Buehler..I think he should be way higher on the boards.

5. Corbin Burns at 65 lololololol

6. Hiura seems a round or two too high. More like a 4th rounder IMO.

 

All in all, not a terrible list at first glance. The steals IMO are:

Rendon at 30

Flaherty at 37

Fried at 55

W. Smith at 106

Bryant at 114

Civale at 155

 

And the reaches/paying too much for IMO are:

Nola at 24

Abreu at 35

Ozuna at 36

Teoscar at 63

Ryu at 71

Myers at 108

 

Again, this is all my opinion. Let's talk 2021 boys.

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5 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

2. Seeing Buehler at SP10 seems WAY too late for me.. especially seeing names like Darvish, Nola and the aging Scherzer ahead of him. I see Buehler as fighting for the top 5 SP.

 

SP10 with a normal amount of variance in a normal length season basically does mean "fighting for the top 5 SP".  I can't see ranking him at 5, and think you're being a bit hard on Darvish in particular.  For good or for ill -- I'd say good in most cases -- people investing high round picks on SPs tend to want guys who've shown multiple seasons of ace volume, and Buehler isn't quite there yet.  And as much as I think SPs get a bit of a mulligan this season for having to deal with COVID, this season *did* happen, and it wasn't just a volume problem this year.

 

6 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

3. Curious as to why Story is still a first rounder but Arenado dropped so much.. was there any regression to cause this? Granted, I know his year during the short 2020 season wasn't record breaking, but there are no other signs of regression. I would still feel comfortable taking him around the 2nd round as a 3B/CI.

 

Story had a great season, Arenado didn't.  I'm not offering nearly the same level of leeway for hitters based on 2020 as I am for pitchers.  Arenado's 2020 Statcast profile looks terrible except for defensive metrics and contact, and if you look at the mulit-season progression, he's looking like a guy who just doesn't have the thump he used to:

 

image.png.1b0df0c6688a5ce08401f24457b1ab32.png 

 

image.png.4ccd3e2e9e028f6f1d5bece5d23dbb6b.png

image.png.e04323d6b8d0bccc904a7b2ce34a005d.png

image.png.a4d406cfbefffe6ec764c95b670d3c9f.png

 

Now, obviously the shoulder injury is what turned things from pale red to solid blue, but the questions about how healthy he'll be heading into 2021 and the long-term downward trend before there was talk of any shoulder problem has me pumping the brakes on him.  There's also the possibility they try to move him, and while plenty of players who've left Coors have maintained their production, the uncertainty is enough to drive down the price, and I can't say I wouldn't be worried at all about a period of adjustment as he shifts from having the Coors Bump and the Coors Hangover to having a more consistent home/away experience.

 

6 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

6. Hiura seems a round or two too high. More like a 4th rounder IMO.


At first I thought you meant "high' as in "early", but apparently you mean "high" as in "late", in which case I strongly disagree.  That plate discipline profile is very troubling, and I feel like he's getting a huge position scarcity bump for a position that isn't as scarce as we thought, or at least isn't significantly more scarce at the top than 3B was this season.  Only 3 for 5 on the basepaths this season, and except for a Yelich bounce-back, I don't expect a lot of help in that lineup for his 2021 R and RBI numbers.  Biggio is going just 3 picks ahead of him, and I'd much rather have him over Hiura, even in AVG leagues where Hiura's plate profile doesn't hurt him as much.

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agree with the takes in here... abreu/ozuna way too high... better to get a mid/late first round pick then an early one this year..

For first round this year I'm aiming for Soto... would absolutely adore getting him anywhere after the 5th pick. If I could luck into getting him like 7th and then turning around and grabbing Harper or lindor in the second I'd feel super amazing. 

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I'm not really sure how much weight you can put into 60 game covid year statcast.   I get taking potentially someone less risky than Arenado for next year reddraft, but wouldn't let him slip too far based on that.  Maybe if a trade is imminent there's a bump down depending on landing spot.

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20 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I'm not really sure how much weight you can put into 60 game covid year statcast.

 

Me neither, which is why I cited four years of data showing a slow but steady decline before this year's injury-related fall off the cliff.  Subtract out the 2020 chart and you still have a troubling and unmistakable slide in the power metrics.  Even if he heals up and comes back strong, "strong" might be a lot less than we're accustomed to from him.  I don't have a problem taking him at the end of the 2nd, but someone asked why he's being dinged, and it's not just because of one bad and abbreviated season.

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3 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

agree with the takes in here... abreu/ozuna way too high... better to get a mid/late first round pick then an early one this year..

For first round this year I'm aiming for Soto... would absolutely adore getting him anywhere after the 5th pick. If I could luck into getting him like 7th and then turning around and grabbing Harper or lindor in the second I'd feel super amazing. 

 

x2. As of today I would want to pick between 9th and 12th as I agree with the top 16 adp but at pick 17 right now I have no idea who I would take. Obviously the off season could change things and after doing some mocks and seeing some adp you can plan based on your favorite targets and how you view each position and that at least for me always helps me in a close decision. IE always can get power later, or always can get a SS later then if close go with the other.

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10 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

Arozarena is going way higher 

Where do we see Arozarena realistically going in the drafts? 10th/11th round sounds about right. You can't expect that hot playoff bat to carry over to 2021..can you? Is he a 25/30 homerun threat to couple 10-15 steals? Very unsure where to place his value.

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2 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

Where do we see Arozarena realistically going in the drafts? 10th/11th round sounds about right. You can't expect that hot playoff bat to carry over to 2021..can you? Is he a 25/30 homerun threat to couple 10-15 steals? Very unsure where to place his value.

 

I've thought about this a lot.  I think he's better than pick 100, so in a 10 team league maybe those rounds.  His value goes up in 5 OF leagues for sure.  I think I feel better about Randy next year than I did Pham this year and Pham was easily a top 100 guy.

 

I think this will be a guy who a decent amount of people will avoid because "im not putting too much stock into the playoffs", but actually could still be a value. Pick 100 for a guy who could go 280-25-12-90-90  (some of those may be conservative) doesn't seem like a reach.  Which of those numbers seems outlandish?

 

90-90 for a guy hitting 3rd on a good team? Might be low actually.

 

25 home runs? Guy hit 17 in 43 games.  25 might be too conservative.

 

280 average? In his last 6 stops he's  hit under 280 one time, quite a few over 300.  His minor league k% was never high. Kinda high this year in the majors, but small sample size and was down in the playoffs.   I could see him hitting under 280 but also over.  

 

 

12 steals? 4 in 23 games this year in the regular season.  12 seems like a fine prediction.  Could be less could be more, but healthy, that seems like a fine prediction.

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I said it back in January of this year...and I'll say it again.

I am staying far far away from Cody Bellinger. Unless he's falling to me at past Pick 20/25, I'm not falling for that...The guy had 1 great season, one that saw him go for an insane .419 BA in the month of April in 2019...only to see his batting average drop horrendously every month after that.

To me, he's a Top-40 kind of guy. Great power, even low-key 10-15 SB speed. But the Batting Average and K's (depending on your league), is what scares me. He feels like a .260/.270 hitter who had 1 great year. No way I'd ever consider taking him in the Top-10.

As for the remainder of people who should go 1-20.

In no particular order:

- Mookie Betts

- Ronald Acuna

- Freddie Freeman

- Mike Trout

- Fernando Tatis Jr.

- Trea Turner (who very quietly FINALLY produced a Top-15 performance)

- Juan Soto

- Shane Bieber

- Jose Ramirez

- Corey Seager (although health concerns are always an issue, i think we see him pop into the Top-20 next year in ADP.)

- Trevor Story

- Christian Yelich

- Nolan Arenado

- Bryce Harper

- Francisco Lindor

- The rest, you can argue will likely be some combo of Rizzo, Baez, Bellinger, Ozuna, Bregman, Machado, Rendon type players..)

 

 

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I don't understand the "one hot month" logic with Bellinger.  Those April, 2019 PAs happened.  He hit .319 in May as well, and finished above .300 on the season.  That's a full season of 660 PAs.  Unless you're willing to to go back and remove the hottest month from any other hitter who's had a career year, I think we have to look at things at the season level.

It's fine to say he will never hit over .300 again, but labeling a 25 year-old who has a .300+ season under his belt and a career AVG of ~.273 as "a .260-.270 guy" seems overly pessimistic.  And let's remember that magical 2019 season happened after everyone claimed he'd been "exposed" in the 2017 playoffs.

I don't think he's a .300 hitter, but we've seen Ramirez's AVG bounce up and down to the point where only has a 0.008 career advantage over Bellinger.  He has 30 SB appeal, so I get why you'd put him ahead of Bellinger, but putting Seager, Harper, Arenado, and Lindor ahead of him seems like an overreaction to a disappointing 60 games.

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On 10/28/2020 at 10:52 AM, MSkibisky said:

Couple of things I noticed right off the bat.

 

1. I agree with Tony that Yelich/Belli at the 1-2 turn could be a huge pay off

2. Seeing Buehler at SP10 seems WAY too late for me.. especially seeing names like Darvish, Nola and the aging Scherzer ahead of him. I see Buehler as fighting for the top 5 SP.

3. Curious as to why Story is still a first rounder but Arenado dropped so much.. was there any regression to cause this? Granted, I know his year during the short 2020 season wasn't record breaking, but there are no other signs of regression. I would still feel comfortable taking him around the 2nd round as a 3B/CI.

4. Flaherty is 2 rounds too low. Again.. like Buehler..I think he should be way higher on the boards.

5. Corbin Burns at 65 lololololol

6. Hiura seems a round or two too high. More like a 4th rounder IMO.

 

All in all, not a terrible list at first glance. The steals IMO are:

Rendon at 30

Flaherty at 37

Fried at 55

W. Smith at 106

Bryant at 114

Civale at 155

 

And the reaches/paying too much for IMO are:

Nola at 24

Abreu at 35

Ozuna at 36

Teoscar at 63

Ryu at 71

Myers at 108

 

Again, this is all my opinion. Let's talk 2021 boys.

 

1. Yelich and Belli could be nice winfalls.  But the end of the first round is not cheap.  Of the two I'm way more concerned about Belli.  Did you see him batting in the 7 hole sometimes during the year.  Very hard to get 1st round value if that sticks.

2. Buehler seems like a health issue/Ip limit concern kind of guy but I would have no problem reaching for him.  Pretty much all starting pitchers other than Degrom, Bieber and Cole have got some warts.   And even with Degrom, the way he can't seem to win, though statistically not reliable, seems like a nagging thorn in the side.

3. Story is a first rounder because he steals bases.   So even if Arenado rebounds, Story's floor and ceiling are higher than Nolan's IMO.

4. Flaherty was an absolute frigging train wreck this year.  He really only had that dominant second half last year.  I'd be afraid if he was my SP1.  If that's the price he won't be on my teams.

5.  I agree Burns is a good bargain at that price, He won't stick around that high though as the season approaches.

6.  Hirua's K rate is really scary frigging high and he didn't show the speed he did in 2019.  I won''t touch at that price either.

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3 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

1. Yelich and Belli could be nice winfalls.  But the end of the first round is not cheap.  Of the two I'm way more concerned about Belli.  Did you see him batting in the 7 hole sometimes during the year.  Very hard to get 1st round value if that sticks.

 

He batted 7th in one game, along with 8 games in the 6 hole, 8 in the 5 hole, 29 in the 4th, 10 in the 3rd.  Stacked lineups can't put six guys in the 1-4 holes, so someone's going to be bumped when they're not producing, and other guys were producing.  The Dodgers lineup turns over so much that where he bats is more of a symptom of his problems than a cause.  If he gets back to hitting -- and his .238 BABIP in 2020 against a career .300 mark suggests there's quite a bit of natural regression that could be coming -- he will move up in the order again.  Plus, there should be some extra room in the order with Turner and Pederson heading to free agency.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

He batted 7th in one game, along with 8 games in the 6 hole, 8 in the 5 hole, 29 in the 4th, 10 in the 3rd.  Stacked lineups can't put six guys in the 1-4 holes, so someone's going to be bumped when they're not producing, and other guys were producing.  The Dodgers lineup turns over so much that where he bats is more of a symptom of his problems than a cause.  If he gets back to hitting -- and his .238 BABIP in 2020 against a career .300 mark suggests there's quite a bit of natural regression that could be coming -- he will move up in the order again.  Plus, there should be some extra room in the order with Turner and Pederson heading to free agency.

 

I believe he batted 7th in the playoffs though for most of the games.  That's where they are likely to keep him since they won the WS I don't think Roberts changes the formula.  As for Turner/Pederson Free agency, the Dodgers just won the world series and they have an amazing farm system.  I doubt they are keeping any weak spots in their lineup.

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13 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I believe he batted 7th in the playoffs though for most of the games.  That's where they are likely to keep him since they won the WS I don't think Roberts changes the formula. 

 

You don't think an MLB manager is going to put a run producing power bat higher in the order if the hits start falling again, just because he happened to push him down in the order when he was struggling and it resulted in a WS title?  I find that very difficult to believe.

13 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

As for Turner/Pederson Free agency, the Dodgers just won the world series and they have an amazing farm system.  I doubt they are keeping any weak spots in their lineup.

 

So, a few things here.

1. Lux, May, and Graterol graduating significantly devalues the LAD farm system, at least when you're looking at it in terms of guys who will be ready to come up in 2021.

2. Everyone in the system has essentially lost a year of development with minor league ball being a glorified two-month long training camp.

3. Even at their best, farm systems typically don't churn out multiple players who can instantly jump to MLB in the heart of the order, which is what it'd take to keep Bellinger buried if he starts to hit.  Gavin Lux put up a 63 wRC+ this season, while Bellinger in a down year with a fluky BABIP put up a 114.  Who's going to keep Bellinger out of the 4 and 5 holes with Turner and/or Pederson gone?  A lot of the strength of the LAD system is in their arms and a bunch of bats with ETAs in 2022 an 2023.

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23 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

You don't think an MLB manager is going to put a run producing power bat higher in the order if the hits start falling again, just because he happened to push him down in the order when he was struggling and it resulted in a WS title?  I find that very difficult to believe.

 

So, a few things here.

1. Lux, May, and Graterol graduating significantly devalues the LAD farm system, at least when you're looking at it in terms of guys who will be ready to come up in 2021.

2. Everyone in the system has essentially lost a year of development with minor league ball being a glorified two-month long training camp.

3. Even at their best, farm systems typically don't churn out multiple players who can instantly jump to MLB in the heart of the order, which is what it'd take to keep Bellinger buried if he starts to hit.  Gavin Lux put up a 63 wRC+ this season, while Bellinger in a down year with a fluky BABIP put up a 114.  Who's going to keep Bellinger out of the 4 and 5 holes with Turner and/or Pederson gone?  A lot of the strength of the LAD system is in their arms and a bunch of bats with ETAs in 2022 an 2023.

 

It's possible.  But the choice isn't between Cody Bellinger and a mound of clay.  It's more like a choice between Bellinger, Yelich Freddie Freeman and maybe a Lindor.  Some of those other players do carry risk but none of those other players carry the risk of getting black hole'd.  There's no hitter in the first 2-3 rounds at risk of not batting in the top 5 except maybe Luis Robert (another guy I think is too high).  

I'm speculating that despite their high payroll the dodgers do find a replacement bat for Turner and Pederson if they don't resign them or they trade pitching for offense and acquire a middle of the order bat.  If come March there's no such improvement than Bellinger gets an upgrade.  But this is the "way too early mock" and yeah it's way too early.  But if the draft happened today, Bellinger's 7 hole is a tremendous problem.

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8 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

But if the draft happened today, Bellinger's 7 hole is a tremendous problem.

 

I certainly hope that this belief is widely shared among fantasy players come March.  I'd take that Yelich/Bellinger turn and send the rest of my leaguemates gift baskets.

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Kneejerk comments

I think it settles in Acuna, Betts, Tatis

How in the world do you handle drafting relievers?  

Seems like there will be several hitter/pitcher or pitcher/pitcher teams in the first two rounds.  Going to be tempting to go hitter/hitter/hitter and then attack pitching harder later.  Several of those 44-56 pitchers went in the mid-rounds last year.  

No helium rookie yet.  Vaughn, Wander, Pache?

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Interesting, 2021 will definitely have some arbitrage opportunities based on small sample size recency bias.  My inital thoughts:

Give me Jose Altuve at a pick 109 price all day over Hiura at pick 69

Give me Victor Robles at pick 158 all day over Kyle Tucker at pick 39

How is James Karinchak not one of the 57 RPs on this list???

I have no problem with Betts, Acuna and Tatis as the top 1-3 but if you’re weighting power/speed guys that heavily (which really is good strategy) then Franklie Lindor is a mega bargain at pick 15

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FInally god around to seeing this.

Too high:

- I'm not taking Tatis top 3.  His cold streak to end the year scared me too much.  I'll go Acuna, Trout, Betts, and Soto before him, because I think those 4 have higher floors.  

- I find it funny that Bellinger is ranked ahead of Freeman.  if anyone has has good reasoning for that, let me know.   Bellinger has had 1 good season.

- Baurer at 17- no hecking way!   I need more sample size.   He's had 1 and half good seasons in 7/8 years.  

- There's no way I'm taking Bichette at 20.   I seem to be much lower on him than the industry as a whole.  He's had 300 at bats.  TOTAL.  In his career.  And he doesn't even contribute ++ numbers in any category (besides averge??).  Too risky for me.

- Ozzie Albies at 27?  Wut?   I mean, besides the fact that if you can't start him against righties, he's just... not that good in fantasy? In real life his superb defense builds a lot of his value. I feel like I'm missing something huge here.  

- Luis Robert at 32 is INSANE.   He's going to have a super low batting average and OBP as long as he has a 30% k rate.  You'll get HR and steals, but a top 3 pick that tanks your batting average like that is a no-go for me, especially because his home runs are likely to come in clumps.  Might be biased cause he sucks so much in points tho (which I play).  He kind reminds me of BJ Upton.

- Woodruff is waaaay too inconsistent and injury prone to be #44 (for me).

- Glasnow at 46- guarantee those owners who picked them have never been glasnow owners before :) 

- Realmuto at 48 feels like a reach unless 2 catcher league.  He might have 1 prime year left but meh, it's not like he's ++ in any category.

- Dinelson "2 pitches and I have legit injury problems" Lamet going at 54 is a big "no" for me.  

- Hiura going at 69 is laughable.  He's the most overrated player itg imo.

Too low:

- I'll take Jose at 8 every time.  He's a lock to give you good SB and HR numbers, but also good AVG is a good bet as well.  He's a true 5 cat stud imo and all his peripherals check out.  I think he has a genuine top 5 argument.

- I'll take Rendon and bregman at 30 and 31, please.  What exactly changed from top 5 pick Bregman and now top 30 (besides 182 at bats this season?) 

- Corey Seager might be my MVP favorite.  I'm shocked he's at 43...he has a case for top 10

-  Kenta Maeda at 51 feels like a massive bargain.   Phenomenal year and peripherals back it up.

-  I'll take Teoscar at 63.  He made a huge adjustment this year to hit for more average.  He already had massive power, and contributed steals.  His statcast checks out tremendously.   You genuinely could have a top 5 player type of year from him (imo) and I think he's comparable to eloy jimenez going at 42, except more steals.

- Conforto is going to have an MVP season soon enough.  Easy grab at 70.

- Olson at 72 is a steal imo.  He was exactly like his previous seasons but unlucker in a small sample size.

- Yordan is going to be healthy by the season supposedly, so I'll gobble him up at 88 and bank on elite production when he's not injured.  I mean, realistically, should he be going that much less than Judge?

-Do people not believe in Framber?  Why he is rank 112?

- Franmil at 152 is funny.  Perpetually underrated imo 

 

 

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Brad Hand at 134 is already cut by Indians. If he gets claimed off waivres who takes him depends if he keeps/shares/loses closer role. If he doesnt get claimed off waivres the Indians going to reject his option and he will go free agency route hopefully to a team that lets him maintain some value. I assume Karinchak or Clase will be the closer next year for the Tribe.

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