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2 Early Mocks 2021 ADP


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9 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

- I'll take Jose at 8 every time.  He's a lock to give you good SB and HR numbers, but also good AVG is a good bet as well.  He's a true 5 cat stud imo and all his peripherals check out.  I think he has a genuine top 5 argument.

 

As much as I love JoRam.. he is also the streakiest player in baseball. When he is on, he is arguable the most valuable player on the roster. When he is cold.. he is borderline un-startable. IF he can fix the consistency issues, I see him as a top 10, maybe even top 5. But until then, I am weary about drafting him that early. Experience - He has been on my team for the past 4 years.

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3 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

 

As much as I love JoRam.. he is also the streakiest player in baseball. When he is on, he is arguable the most valuable player on the roster. When he is cold.. he is borderline un-startable. IF he can fix the consistency issues, I see him as a top 10, maybe even top 5. But until then, I am weary about drafting him that early. Experience - He has been on my team for the past 4 years.

 

Is JoRam really that streaky and unstartable though?  Month by month, career stats, AVG/OBP/SLG/ISO/BABIP

Mar/Apr: .251/.318/.418/.168/.255

May: .263./356./443/.180/.279

Jun: .281/.351/.480/.199/.290

Jul: .317./384/.579/.262/.311  👀

Aug: .270./340/.469/.199/.289

Sep/Oct: .302./373/.570/.267/.292 👀

Career wise his stats are relatively evenly spread by the months, though he does seem to perform better in the second half overall (which is good for fantasy managers).  Let's take a closer look:

2020: You could say he had a bad August and a great September, but is this true?  In August, despite an abysmal .215 BABIP and corresponding .202 AVG, he still put up 5 HR, 17 RBI, 20 R, and 7 SB.  Those are excellent stats other than the AVG.  In September he single handedly won many leagues by hitting .366 with 10 HRs.

2019: Huge first half slump, or was it?  Again, BABIP cratered to .234 and with it his AVG of .218, but he still put up 7 HR, 35 RBI, 39 R, and 18 SB(!).  Second half saw his BABIP normalize to .302 and he, once again, won championships for patient fantasy managers by hitting .327 with 16 HR.

2018: Huge second half slump, or was it?  We know the drill, BABIP cratered to .208 and with it his AVG of .218.  Yet he still put up 10 HR, 35 RBI, 42 R, and 14 SB.  First half was good to go with BABIP of .280, AVG .302, and an absurd 29 HR and 20 SB.

2017: Top 3 fantasy player year round.

2016: His first full season and his power was developing.

Career: His 162 game average is a silly solid .281/.354, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 97 R, 25 SB.

 

I'm not so sure Jose Ramirez is a streaky hitter.  He suffered one year (split by an offseason) of bad luck.  I'd buy with confidence.

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On 10/30/2020 at 11:53 AM, colepenhagen said:

only early pick that stands out is walker as sp10 ha

sp4 for me trust the talent

 

 

On talent, I agree. But I think what's dropping him down his the fear of "dodgeritis" and how many innings they'll let him go.

Same issue with Kershaw, on talent, I think he's in that top 5 discussion but the likely lower IP total pushes him down.

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On 10/30/2020 at 3:00 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Is JoRam really that streaky and unstartable though?  Month by month, career stats, AVG/OBP/SLG/ISO/BABIP

I'm not so sure Jose Ramirez is a streaky hitter.  He suffered one year (split by an offseason) of bad luck.  I'd buy with confidence.

 

Sure, if you take a large sample size, aka, his entire career, and look at it as a whole, he has good career numbers so far. Did you own him in 2019? Did you pay a 1st/2nd round pick to have him SLUMP for 65% of the season? That is what i am referring to. I didn't say he isn't valuable, or that he isn't worth a pick, he can just be a headache for a good chunk of the year. Granted, after his 2019 slump, he mashed, but it took him 4 goddang months to do it. That's all im saying. 

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On 11/2/2020 at 5:13 AM, MSkibisky said:

 

Sure, if you take a large sample size, aka, his entire career, and look at it as a whole, he has good career numbers so far. Did you own him in 2019? Did you pay a 1st/2nd round pick to have him SLUMP for 65% of the season? That is what i am referring to. I didn't say he isn't valuable, or that he isn't worth a pick, he can just be a headache for a good chunk of the year. Granted, after his 2019 slump, he mashed, but it took him 4 goddang months to do it. That's all im saying. 

 

Trout aside, every first rounder has a year when he doesn't meet standards.  2019 was that year for Jose Ramirez and he still gave us a 20/20 season which isn't worth nothing.  Overall I think people often get hung up when they feel like they get burned by a high pick and it's totally understandable.  JoRam was very difficult to start with confidence in 2019 but he came through in the end.  Ultimately, my point only was that over five years he's had one prolonged slump through which he still produced decently other than his BA.

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

I’m doing an nfbc 50 now and mid way through the 3rd.  No huge surprises.  SP fly off the board vs years past.  People aren’t spooked by Scherzer or Kershaw.  Arenado and Devers are really falling

 

Arenado went 25th in myne but Devers free fell to 46, Bregman 45.

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On 11/11/2020 at 4:13 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

I’m doing an nfbc 50 now and mid way through the 3rd.  No huge surprises.  SP fly off the board vs years past.  People aren’t spooked by Scherzer or Kershaw.  Arenado and Devers are really falling

 

Out of the 11 spot this is who I've got so far, love the team and have had no picks I hated, settled for or second guessed really.

deGrom

Bauer

SMarte

TAnderson

Lynn

Hader

KMarte

Cruz

Goldschmidt

Mcneil

Myers

Hosmer

Soler

Gallo (those last 2 added much needed power and the foundation had a excellent average)

Hoping to add Schwarber next to fill the OF then heavy pitching worry about MI or 3B later with Mcneil able to slot into which ever one I don't select

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First 6 Rounds.  No idea if this will format or not.  Edit - did best I could.  Teams 1-12 

 

 

Team 1
Nelson
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Team 11
1
 
RonaldATLAcuna Jr.
FernandoSDTatis Jr.
JuanWASSoto
MookieLADBetts
MikeLAATrout
GerritNYYCole
TreaWASTurner
JoseCLERamirez
FreddieATLFreeman
ChristianMLWYelich
ShaneCLEBieber
JacobNYMdeGrom
2
 
AlexHOUBregman
JackSTLFlaherty
AaronPHINola
LucasCWSGiolito
YuCHCDarvish
BrycePHIHarper
WalkerLADBuehler
MannySDMachado
TrevorCINBauer
FranciscoCLELindor
CodyLADBellinger
TrevorCOLStory
3
 
ClaytonLADKershaw
JoseCWSAbreu
CoreyLADSeager
LuisCINCastillo
DJNYYLeMahieu
BoTORBichette
KyleHOUTucker
OzzieATLAlbies
NolanCOLArenado
MaxWASScherzer
AnthonyLAARendon
J.T.PHIRealmuto
4
 
BlakeTBSnell
AdalbertoKCMondesi
WhitKCMerrifield
RafaelBOSDevers
AaronNYYJudge
EloyCWSJimenez
VladimirTORGuerrero Jr.
LuisCWSRobert
RandyTBArozarena
MarcellATLOzuna
XanderBOSBogaerts
ZacARZGallen
5
 
StarlingMIAMarte
JoshMLWHader
BrandonMLWWoodruff
TimCWSAnderson
LukeNYYVoit
KentaMINMaeda
TylerTBGlasnow
PeteNYMAlonso
GeorgeHOUSpringer
KestonMLWHiura
DinelsonSDLamet
TrentSDGrisham
6
 
GleyberNYYTorres
TeoscarTORHernandez
SonnyCINGray
JavierCHCBaez
Hyun JinTORRyu
CavanTORBiggio
CharlieCOLBlackmon
MaxATLFried
LiamOAKHendriks
LanceTEXLynn
CorbinMLWBurnes
NickCINCastellanos
Edited by kidtwentytwo
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13 hours ago, turner46 said:

 

Out of the 11 spot this is who I've got so far, love the team and have had no picks I hated, settled for or second guessed really.

deGrom

Bauer

SMarte

TAnderson

Lynn

Hader

KMarte

Cruz

Goldschmidt

Mcneil

Myers

Hosmer

Soler

Gallo (those last 2 added much needed power and the foundation had a excellent average)

Hoping to add Schwarber next to fill the OF then heavy pitching worry about MI or 3B later with Mcneil able to slot into which ever one I don't select

 

Looking pretty good.  May need a little more HR/RBI.  

I have no idea how to address closer in a draft & hold right now.   I guess I'm going to draft 8-9 RP and hope 2-3 of them bink.  Maybe target someone like a Montero on the Rangers or Rodriguez from the Pirates later on. 

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Looking pretty good.  May need a little more HR/RBI.  

I have no idea how to address closer in a draft & hold right now.   I guess I'm going to draft 8-9 RP and hope 2-3 of them bink.  Maybe target someone like a Montero on the Rangers or Rodriguez from the Pirates later on. 

 

The guy who won the overall in the draft champions (small sample obviously and he binked on 2 of the better options but many came up) got his saves from Pressley and Barnes both who were late picks who benefited by injury and trade, many others benefited by inefectiveness and this happens every year. So I guess I'm saying is don't force saves, even more so in the NFBC 50 where this year they have top 3 overall (main event, something and online championship for the top 3 iirc) but in that format punting saves isn't the end of the world. Also drafting now makes those saves even more uncertain,

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Just now, turner46 said:

 

The guy who won the overall in the draft champions (small sample obviously and he binked on 2 of the better options but many came up) got his saves from Pressley and Barnes both who were late picks who benefited by injury and trade, many others benefited by inefectiveness and this happens every year. So I guess I'm saying is don't force saves, even more so in the NFBC 50 where this year they have top 3 overall (main event, something and online championship for the top 3 iirc) but in that format punting saves isn't the end of the world. Also drafting now makes those saves even more uncertain,

 

2nd overall is a solo shot entry, it is like their main event but only 1 entry allowed and no "Co managers" You can obviously just share login info but in every other contest you can have a co manager and they can log in and make draft picks, adjust lineups, do FAAB etc...

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Looking pretty good.  May need a little more HR/RBI.  

I have no idea how to address closer in a draft & hold right now.   I guess I'm going to draft 8-9 RP and hope 2-3 of them bink.  Maybe target someone like a Montero on the Rangers or Rodriguez from the Pirates later on. 

 

Schwarber and GSanchez added, this team feels great but usually the teams you love do the worst and teams your on the fence on where you had tough decisions or players sniped etc... end up doing good. Also being way to early lots of things can change but they can also change and make this team impossible to assemble once more ADP and more sites put out content.

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On 11/13/2020 at 9:04 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

First 6 Rounds.  No idea if this will format or not.  Edit - did best I could.  Teams 1-12 

 

 

Team 1
Nelson
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Team 11
1
 
RonaldATLAcuna Jr.
FernandoSDTatis Jr.
JuanWASSoto
MookieLADBetts
MikeLAATrout
GerritNYYCole
TreaWASTurner
JoseCLERamirez
FreddieATLFreeman
ChristianMLWYelich
ShaneCLEBieber
JacobNYMdeGrom
2
 
AlexHOUBregman
JackSTLFlaherty
AaronPHINola
LucasCWSGiolito
YuCHCDarvish
BrycePHIHarper
WalkerLADBuehler
MannySDMachado
TrevorCINBauer
FranciscoCLELindor
CodyLADBellinger
TrevorCOLStory
3
 
ClaytonLADKershaw
JoseCWSAbreu
CoreyLADSeager
LuisCINCastillo
DJNYYLeMahieu
BoTORBichette
KyleHOUTucker
OzzieATLAlbies
NolanCOLArenado
MaxWASScherzer
AnthonyLAARendon
J.T.PHIRealmuto
4
 
BlakeTBSnell
AdalbertoKCMondesi
WhitKCMerrifield
RafaelBOSDevers
AaronNYYJudge
EloyCWSJimenez
VladimirTORGuerrero Jr.
LuisCWSRobert
RandyTBArozarena
MarcellATLOzuna
XanderBOSBogaerts
ZacARZGallen
5
 
StarlingMIAMarte
JoshMLWHader
BrandonMLWWoodruff
TimCWSAnderson
LukeNYYVoit
KentaMINMaeda
TylerTBGlasnow
PeteNYMAlonso
GeorgeHOUSpringer
KestonMLWHiura
DinelsonSDLamet
TrentSDGrisham
6
 
GleyberNYYTorres
TeoscarTORHernandez
SonnyCINGray
JavierCHCBaez
Hyun JinTORRyu
CavanTORBiggio
CharlieCOLBlackmon
MaxATLFried
LiamOAKHendriks
LanceTEXLynn
CorbinMLWBurnes
NickCINCastellanos

Arozarena at 40 is very aggressive, even if you love him I'd think that's at least a couple rounds too early. 

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On 11/13/2020 at 9:13 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Looking pretty good.  May need a little more HR/RBI.  

I have no idea how to address closer in a draft & hold right now.   I guess I'm going to draft 8-9 RP and hope 2-3 of them bink.  Maybe target someone like a Montero on the Rangers or Rodriguez from the Pirates later on. 

 

Added Schwarber and GSanchez mentioned earlier, then Mcmahon (for coors) as a bench bat and Dejong as my MI.

Montero went in the 14th in myne, Rodriguez in the 18th. I just took Barnes in the 21st and Neris in the 22nd. Will Smith who I was interested in went just before me in the 21st. Not sure how this will play out but this is my reasoning, guys like Melancon, Workman, Rosenthal, Kintzler (but who) aren't under contract so guys like Will Smith, Matt Barnes, Neris and Drew Pomeranz could be at a bargain this early and if they close you have yourself a huge bargain and if they don't can be used for ratios in a pinch if injuries occur.

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7 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

Added Schwarber and GSanchez mentioned earlier, then Mcmahon (for coors) as a bench bat and Dejong as my MI.

Montero went in the 14th in myne, Rodriguez in the 18th. I just took Barnes in the 21st and Neris in the 22nd. Will Smith who I was interested in went just before me in the 21st. Not sure how this will play out but this is my reasoning, guys like Melancon, Workman, Rosenthal, Kintzler (but who) aren't under contract so guys like Will Smith, Matt Barnes, Neris and Drew Pomeranz could be at a bargain this early and if they close you have yourself a huge bargain and if they don't can be used for ratios in a pinch if injuries occur.

 

Will Smith owner went ahead and sniped Pomeranz so he too was ahead of the curve.

Hendricks went in the 6th round of myne (non zero chance he sets up for the yankees or dodgers), Colome went in rnd 11 he too could go somewhere where he doesn't close etc...

I'll try to dig into the lower ranked teams tomorrow as I likely don't pick again today and a busy NFL Sunday.

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:13 PM, CORTEz said:

The rest, you can argue will likely be some combo of Rizzo, Baez, Bellinger, Ozuna, Bregman, Machado, Rendon type players..)

 

You are taking Rizzo, Baez, Ozuna and even Machado over SP's like Cole and DeGrom?  Not a chance IMO.  Those 2 SP should be in top 20 along with Bieber (who you already have).  There are very few "bankable" Aces out there, and no way in hell Im taking a declining Anthony Rizzo and k-prone Baez over either of those 2 SP

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1 hour ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

You are taking Rizzo, Baez, Ozuna and even Machado over SP's like Cole and DeGrom?  Not a chance IMO.  Those 2 SP should be in top 20 along with Bieber (who you already have).  There are very few "bankable" Aces out there, and no way in hell Im taking a declining Anthony Rizzo and k-prone Baez over either of those 2 SP

 

DeGrom you can argue should probably be in the Top-15 somewhere...

But after watching last season (even though it was a shortened season, Cole had multiple bad/meh games. 5 games in fact where he gave up 3 or more ER. Cole is a great pitcher, but we'll likely find him ranked somewhere in the ADP 15-25 range. He's more of an "A- to A pitcher, as opposed to a legit A to A+ pure ace like DeGrom or Bieber.

You are right though, Rizzo and Baez are declining, but again, will the systems begin ranking them lower or will they keep them up there because of their "star power".

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13 hours ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

You are taking Rizzo, Baez, Ozuna and even Machado over SP's like Cole and DeGrom?  Not a chance IMO.  Those 2 SP should be in top 20 along with Bieber (who you already have).  There are very few "bankable" Aces out there, and no way in hell Im taking a declining Anthony Rizzo and k-prone Baez over either of those 2 SP

 

I think Cole and DeGrom should be taken before all four of those guys and I don't think it's close.  Looking at NFC ADP there are three tiers of SP:

First rounders: Cole, Beiber, DeGrom

Tight pack of eleven guys from Bauer (15) to Woodruff (39).

Larger spread of nine guys from Maeda (47) to Lamet (65).

I think most managers will aim to have at least one SP from the first two tiers, and most will aim for having at least two SPs from the first three.  That's 24 SPs out of 65 picks, or about a third of the total.  You may have to aim and snipe your first two SPs with more care than you would a .280-25-100-100 guy like Rizzo, Ozuna, Baez, or Machado.

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I'd be very careful weighing 2020 performances too heavily for guys like Cole. If you're dropping them in a draft based on two months performance, it's equivalent to trading them in May for a lower drafted player. It could work out, but the list of aces who have burned owners for getting impatient is long. 

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