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Jakobi Meyers 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

I have. I also know it's not wise to hitch my wagon to an undrafted poor athlete wideout who plays with QBs averaging less than 200 yards per game with a 3:11 touchdown to interception ratio, especially when that wideout is yet to receive a redzone target or score an NFL touchdown himself and has to face (1) the Ravens this week and (2) the Rams and Bills in the fantasy playoffs. This guy is fools gold.

 

Also, Cam has thrown for 270+ yards in the 2 games where he's had to throw 30+ times. Their upcoming schedule tells me they will be throwing A LOT--particularly when we just watched them having to play catchup against the Jets. I wonder what the game script is going to look like against the Ravens, Texans, Cardinals and Chargers?

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I like you, new guy. You better be right btw.

I remember everyone saying the same thing about Fulgham after week 5. You're also being disingenuous, his first productive game was week 7--the first game he was given the opportunity to be a full tim

1 hour ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

I have. I also know it's not wise to hitch my wagon to an undrafted poor athlete wideout who plays with QBs averaging less than 200 yards per game with a 3:11 touchdown to interception ratio, especially when that wideout is yet to receive a redzone target or score an NFL touchdown himself and has to face (1) the Ravens this week and (2) the Rams and Bills in the fantasy playoffs. This guy is fools gold.

sure he is. 😆

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Just now, paulwall29 said:

 

Also, Cam has thrown for 270+ yards in the 2 games where he's attempted more than 30 passes. Their upcoming schedule tells me they will be throwing A LOT--particularly when they were having to play catchup against the Jets. I wonder what the game script is going to look like against the Ravens, Texans, Cardinals and Chargers?

the ravens have the best run defense in football, a team that gets the lead early and forces teams to throw a ton. their qb opponents on average have thrown the ball 37 times per game...who else does cam throw to? how about the kid that's top 5 in targets in all of football over the past 3 weeks! 

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This is the opinion of a New Englander who has watched every sad Patriots game this year and has owned Cam, Damien Harris and Pats D this season:

Jakobi Meyers is a speculative back of the bench add for 1-2 weeks to see how they use him going forward... but don't expect another 11/169 performance... or any real shot at TDs.

The Patriots were in a rare scenario vs. the Jets - they were down big vs. a terrible defense. They got it down the field in the 4th Q because the Jets let them.

Similar to issues with Damien Harris, the Patriots offense is not going to score a ton of offensive touchdowns, and when they do, the touchdowns will be ran in by Cam or Rex Burkhead, or come from dinks and dunks that Jakobi has as much likelihood to score as James White, Gunner Olszewski, or the new guy Isaiah Ford will have.

Overall, the Patriots are a clock-killing, methodical, move the ball down the field offense with a mobile quarterback that thinks of himself first. They've dealt with a ton of injuries and are still off-kilter from their Covid issues. They could continue to improve offensively, but there's a strong case to be made that this offense just cannot sustain a start worthy skill player this season, unless you're desperate in a PPR Flex spot and the Patriots have a favorable game script. But again, you're hoping for another 10+/100+ game rather than banking on any TDs.

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25 minutes ago, Prezkot said:

This is the opinion of a New Englander who has watched every sad Patriots game this year and has owned Cam, Damien Harris and Pats D this season:

Jakobi Meyers is a speculative back of the bench add for 1-2 weeks to see how they use him going forward... but don't expect another 11/169 performance... or any real shot at TDs.

The Patriots were in a rare scenario vs. the Jets - they were down big vs. a terrible defense. They got it down the field in the 4th Q because the Jets let them.

Similar to issues with Damien Harris, the Patriots offense is not going to score a ton of offensive touchdowns, and when they do, the touchdowns will be ran in by Cam or Rex Burkhead, or come from dinks and dunks that Jakobi has as much likelihood to score as James White, Gunner Olszewski, or the new guy Isaiah Ford will have.

Overall, the Patriots are a clock-killing, methodical, move the ball down the field offense with a mobile quarterback that thinks of himself first. They've dealt with a ton of injuries and are still off-kilter from their Covid issues. They could continue to improve offensively, but there's a strong case to be made that this offense just cannot sustain a start worthy skill player this season, unless you're desperate in a PPR Flex spot and the Patriots have a favorable game script. But again, you're hoping for another 10+/100+ game rather than banking on any TDs.

 

I appreciate the insight of a local and you make some very good points, however, I think it should be clarified that nobody in here is expecting a repeat performance of last week moving forward but I don't think you are painting a realistic picture of what things are going to look like moving forward. In week 1 the Pats looked good and were playing a week 1 Dolphins team that sucked and Pats won 21-11--they were able to play clock kill ball. Week 2 they played Seattle and had to air it out which they did. Week 3 they played against Vegas and had a lead for much of the game and were able to play clock kill ball--they won 36-20. Week 4 Cam didn't play and they got dominated by the Chiefs. Week 6 they played a depleted Broncos team in an 18-12 game aka clock kill ball. Week 7 Cam got replaced by Jarret Stidham who shouldn't touch an NFL field, they got blown out by the Niners and Meyers saw his first significant action posting a 4-60 line. Week 8 they played the Bills and Meyers had 10 targets. Week 9 they played a horrible Jets team where they were forced to throw and Meyers had a monster game. In their past 3 games the Pats have given up 33, 24 and 27 points. Their defense is trending in the wrong direction and their upcoming schedule is nothing but offenses that can put up points: Ravens, Texans, Cardinals and Chargers. Whether you like it or not, whether they are good at it or bad at it, they are going to be forced to throw the ball more than they want to. In PPR formats Meyers doesn't need TD's to put up top 30 numbers. He is going to have volume because he is the only receiver they have that can produce. Harry is a bust, Byrd is as inconsistent and has been out targeted by Meyers for 3 weeks, Edelman is hurt and looked washed even when he was playing, they don't have a TE that sees any volume and Cam hasn't used James White the way Brady did. He has, however, clearly showed an affinity for Meyers and has even said that he is his go-to guy.

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14 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Lol ok, I guess I'm crazy for picking up a guy for free off waivers who has no competition for targets and dropped an 11/169 line. I guess I should have grabbed Zach Pascal instead. Who are you picking up in competitive leagues over him?

 

Didn't call you crazy, and I'm certainly not advocating for you to pick up Zach Pascal. Just trying to be rational about what to expect. There have been 17 instances where a Patriots wideout has played more than 75% of the snaps in a game. Only twice has one of these players scored more than 15 ppr fantasy points (N'Keal Harry's 15.2 points in week 2 against Seattle, and Jakobi's 28.9 points last week against New York). That's it. Add in the fact that their remaining Strength of Schedule is not favorable to wideouts and others (Edelman and Harry) will likely return soon (as soon as this week for Harry), and what do you have?

I'd prefer to use to the roster spot on an RB handcuff or a defense with a useful upcoming matchup. In terms of wideouts (outside the top 50 rostered), I'd prefer to stash someone with higher longterm upside. Wideouts I would consider are:

Corey Davis

Allen Lazard

Sammy Watkins

Jalen Reagor

Darnell Mooney

Demarcus Robinson

K.J. Hamler

David Moore

Gabriel Davis

Michael Pittman

Mecole Hardman

Olamide Zaccheaus

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Didn't call you crazy, and I'm certainly not advocating for you to pick up Zach Pascal. Just trying to be rational about what to expect. There have been 17 instances where a Patriots wideout has played more than 75% of the snaps in a game. Only twice has one of these players scored more than 15 ppr fantasy points (N'Keal Harry's 15.2 points in week 2 against Seattle, and Jakobi's 28.9 points last week against New York). That's it. Add in the fact that their remaining Strength of Schedule is not favorable to wideouts and others (Edelman and Harry) will likely return soon (as soon as this week for Harry), and what do you have?

I'd prefer to use to the roster spot on an RB handcuff or a defense with a useful upcoming matchup. In terms of wideouts (outside the top 50 rostered), I'd prefer to stash someone with higher longterm upside. Wideouts I would consider are:

Corey Davis

Allen Lazard

Sammy Watkins

Jalen Reagor

Darnell Mooney

Demarcus Robinson

K.J. Hamler

David Moore

Gabriel Davis

Michael Pittman

Mecole Hardman

Olamide Zaccheaus

 

 

 

 

 

Harry isn't good. Edelman is hurt and looked washed for about 4 weeks before his injury. I would LOVE to hear your explanation for why you want to roster any of those guys (aside from Reagor, Lazard, Davis and Pittman  who were already owned in every competitive league larger than 10 teams weeks ago). Mooney is the only one I think is even in the conversation and he has the same issues that Meyers does and plays alongside a bonafide target hog. 

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17 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Harry isn't good. Edelman is hurt and looked washed for about 4 weeks before his injury. I would LOVE to hear your explanation for why you want to roster any of those guys (aside from Reagor, Lazard, Davis and Pittman  who were already owned in every competitive league larger than 10 teams weeks ago). Mooney is the only one I think is even in the conversation and he has the same issues that Meyers does and plays alongside a bonafide target hog. 

 

If you want to define what a competitive league is, be my guest. I looked at guys roster% outside the top 50.

Harry doesn't have to be "good" to adversely affect Jakobi. Harry played 53.2 snaps PER GAME in his 5 healthy games. In those games, Jakobi TOTALED only 22 snaps. The Patriots have invested far more in Harry and he's not gonna be benched for performance reasons.

All the guys I mentioned play in bigger offenses and/or have much greater draft capital. Many are just an injury away from monster difference-making roles and have far greater scheduled ahead of them.

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13 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

If you want to define what a competitive league is, be my guest. I looked at guys roster% outside the top 50.

Harry doesn't have to be "good" to adversely affect Jakobi. Harry played 53.2 snaps PER GAME in his 5 healthy games. In those games, Jakobi TOTALED only 22 snaps. The Patriots have invested far more in Harry and he's not gonna be benched for performance reasons.

All the guys I mentioned play in bigger offenses and/or have much greater draft capital. Many are just an injury away from monster difference-making roles and have far greater scheduled ahead of them.

 

Competitive leagues means guys that were on every major websites waiver wire column 2+ weeks ago aren't available. Being on a good offense and having higher draft capital doesn't matter in fantasy when you see 4 targets a game. Also, draft capital for a guy like Harry matters very little at this point in the season when the player hasn't performed. You are talking about Harry's 5 healthy games as if that is relevant to the current situation we are in which is one where Meyers has actually played exceptionally well with the opportunity he has been given--something that cannot be said about the guy with the higher draft capital who has averaged a laughable 8.9 YPC over 2 seasons. Oh yea, I'll leave you with this little factoid: Meyer's has more double digit target games over the last 2 weeks than Harry does his entire career 😂

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1 hour ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Didn't call you crazy, and I'm certainly not advocating for you to pick up Zach Pascal. Just trying to be rational about what to expect. There have been 17 instances where a Patriots wideout has played more than 75% of the snaps in a game. Only twice has one of these players scored more than 15 ppr fantasy points (N'Keal Harry's 15.2 points in week 2 against Seattle, and Jakobi's 28.9 points last week against New York). That's it. Add in the fact that their remaining Strength of Schedule is not favorable to wideouts and others (Edelman and Harry) will likely return soon (as soon as this week for Harry), and what do you have?

I'd prefer to use to the roster spot on an RB handcuff or a defense with a useful upcoming matchup. In terms of wideouts (outside the top 50 rostered), I'd prefer to stash someone with higher longterm upside. Wideouts I would consider are:

Corey Davis

Allen Lazard

Sammy Watkins

Jalen Reagor

Darnell Mooney

Demarcus Robinson

K.J. Hamler

David Moore

Gabriel Davis

Michael Pittman

Mecole Hardman

Olamide Zaccheaus

 

 

 

 

gross list of jobbers.  id take meyers over all of em outside maybe 3.

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I’m not worried about Harry in the slightest. The bigger concerns, as others have said, are (I) the state of the offense generally and (II) what happens when/if Edelman returns. 
 

I think Meyers is as good of a bench stash as anyone. I don’t want to, and don’t have to, play him against the Ravens this week but if he has another good game (like 6 or more catches) I’ll probably be playing him against Houston. 

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12 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Didn't call you crazy, and I'm certainly not advocating for you to pick up Zach Pascal. Just trying to be rational about what to expect. There have been 17 instances where a Patriots wideout has played more than 75% of the snaps in a game. Only twice has one of these players scored more than 15 ppr fantasy points (N'Keal Harry's 15.2 points in week 2 against Seattle, and Jakobi's 28.9 points last week against New York). That's it. Add in the fact that their remaining Strength of Schedule is not favorable to wideouts and others (Edelman 

Corey Davis

Allen Lazard

Sammy Watkins

Jalen Reagor

Darnell Mooney

Demarcus Robinson

K.J. Hamler

David Moore

Gabriel Davis

Michael Pittman

Mecole Hardman

Olamide Zaccheaus

 

Really? You'd rather own the #2, #3, and #4 WR of KC over NE's clear #1 WR??

Seattle's #3 over NE's #1?

 

If you are truly trying to lump Corey Davis into this conversation you either don't understand fantasy football or are purposefully making a disingenuous argument.

 

Meyers has averaged 10 targets a game over his last 3 games.  I see people bringing up the upcoming schedule.  Yeah The Bills are one of the teams he already had 10 targets against.

 

Houston gives up the 26th most points to WRs.  Miami the 22nd most points.  Arizona is 20th.  These are favorable matchups. 

 

As for the less than favorable matchups BAL, LAR, LAC, CAR, BUF.  If he's seeing 7-9 targets a game even in tough matchups he has a solid floor. Besides all of these "tough matchups" outside of LAR are a lot closer to league average than you'd realize when just looking at their ranking in terms of giving up points to WRs.

 

 

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He has chemistry with Cam now and that is about the only thing on offense that has been clicking. 

If you think they go away from that you have to be thinking for what and why?  Harry who has been a colossal disappointment or a washed Edelman off injury???  The band of mediocre RBs?  No name TEs?

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"Meyers is seeing more opportunity than all but the game's top wideouts. He's tied with D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Robby Anderson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster with 28 targets over that three-weeks stretch, seeing 38 percent of New England's targets."

I'm not expecting to add the top WR in the game after week 9, but he's certainly a worthy flier to take.... just like anyone else being added at this time of the season.

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1 hour ago, Rotocious said:

 

Really? You'd rather own the #2, #3, and #4 WR of KC over NE's clear #1 WR??

Seattle's #3 over NE's #1?

 

If you are truly trying to lump Corey Davis into this conversation you either don't understand fantasy football or are purposefully making a disingenuous argument.

 

Meyers has averaged 10 targets a game over his last 3 games.  I see people bringing up the upcoming schedule.  Yeah The Bills are one of the teams he already had 10 targets against.

 

Houston gives up the 26th most points to WRs.  Miami the 22nd most points.  Arizona is 20th.  These are favorable matchups. 

 

As for the less than favorable matchups BAL, LAR, LAC, CAR, BUF.  If he's seeing 7-9 targets a game even in tough matchups he has a solid floor. Besides all of these "tough matchups" outside of LAR are a lot closer to league average than you'd realize when just looking at their ranking in terms of giving up points to WRs.

 

 

 

Like I said before, I looked at the guys outside the top 50 wideouts based on roster% and said these are the guys I would consider above Jakobi Meyers. These are the guys I would consider after the handcuff RBs and defenses I would otherwise prefer to roster, and I offered this list because the guy asked me to do so without otherwise qualifying what he was talking about. I gave the guy 12 names including many who are rostered in fewer than 5% of leagues, so please relax and spare me the bush league garbage about me not understanding fantasy football or making disinginuous arguments, simply because Corey Davis made the list. 

In regards to the KC and SEA players, yes. Their upside in the event of injury are far greater than Jakobi's and they play in offenses that actually move the ball and score touchdowns. Would I start them this very moment? No. But they have potential to help me when it counts, which is more than I can say about Jakobi Meyers when N'Keal Harry (as soon as this week) and Julien Edelman (maybe in 2-3 weeks) are healthy, because Jakobi plays in a bad offense that rarely supports even a single successful fantasy receiver (as evidenced by the 2 for 17 mark of wide receiver success that I noted above).

On the year, the Patriots passing attack has been BRUTAL and moved the ball only against the Seahawks (arguably one of the worst pass defenses ever) and Jets. Their TD to INT ratio is 3:11 for god sakes.

Regarding the Ravens matchup: They are the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL and are giving up only 223.1 pass yards per game despite facing the 5th most pass attempts (38.5 per game). I'll be surprised if Cam surpasses 200 yards passing in this one. We can't trust Jakobi here.

Regarding the Texans: Yes, their defense is not good, but they primarily struggle on the ground (159.5 yards per game). They are closer to the league average against the pass, and there's no reason to believe Bill Belichick will move away from the ground game in this one. Again, can't trust Jakobi here.

After that, the Patriot wideout room will be at or near full health, and a tough playoff schedule remains. Even if things break favorably for Jakobi (i.e. Edelman and Harry continue to miss time) it's still way too volatile a situation to bank on against the Rams, Dolphins, or Bills down the stretch.

Why would anyone sign up for this headache?

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I read something about Edelman having a bone on bone issue in his knee. Sounds like to me microfracture surgery is on the horizon for him. 

People want to say, "it was against the Jets" but who gives a spit. Meyers was targeted heavily and is looking like the main option. 

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2 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Like I said before, I looked at the guys outside the top 50 wideouts based on roster% and said these are the guys I would consider above Jakobi Meyers. These are the guys I would consider after the handcuff RBs and defenses I would otherwise prefer to roster, and I offered this list because the guy asked me to do so without otherwise qualifying what he was talking about. I gave the guy 12 names including many who are rostered in fewer than 5% of leagues, so please relax and spare me the bush league garbage about me not understanding fantasy football or making disinginuous arguments, simply because Corey Davis made the list. 

In regards to the KC and SEA players, yes. Their upside in the event of injury are far greater than Jakobi's and they play in offenses that actually move the ball and score touchdowns. Would I start them this very moment? No. But they have potential to help me when it counts, which is more than I can say about Jakobi Meyers when N'Keal Harry (as soon as this week) and Julien Edelman (maybe in 2-3 weeks) are healthy, because Jakobi plays in a bad offense that rarely supports even a single successful fantasy receiver (as evidenced by the 2 for 17 mark of wide receiver success that I noted above).

On the year, the Patriots passing attack has been BRUTAL and moved the ball only against the Seahawks (arguably one of the worst pass defenses ever) and Jets. Their TD to INT ratio is 3:11 for god sakes.

Regarding the Ravens matchup: They are the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL and are giving up only 223.1 pass yards per game despite facing the 5th most pass attempts (38.5 per game). I'll be surprised if Cam surpasses 200 yards passing in this one. We can't trust Jakobi here.

Regarding the Texans: Yes, their defense is not good, but they primarily struggle on the ground (159.5 yards per game). They are closer to the league average against the pass, and there's no reason to believe Bill Belichick will move away from the ground game in this one. Again, can't trust Jakobi here.

After that, the Patriot wideout room will be at or near full health, and a tough playoff schedule remains. Even if things break favorably for Jakobi (i.e. Edelman and Harry continue to miss time) it's still way too volatile a situation to bank on against the Rams, Dolphins, or Bills down the stretch.

Why would anyone sign up for this headache?

 

They would take him on because he's been better over the last 3 weeks than anyone in the entire group of players you listed and has a monopoly on his teams target share. To ask why anyone would take him on is patently absurd.

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LMAO @ everyone loweing his value because of TDs. Newsflash kids, it's football, and TD's happen. It happens to everyone who gets usage. You aim for guys who can build their foundation points off of receptions and yards, and for a guy like this who could drop 10-20 pts on yard/rec alone, the TDs would just bolster him into elite status. 

If he found the endzone, his line would look like Davante Adams. 

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11 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

LMAO @ everyone loweing his value because of TDs. Newsflash kids, it's football, and TD's happen. It happens to everyone who gets usage. You aim for guys who can build their foundation points off of receptions and yards, and for a guy like this who could drop 10-20 pts on yard/rec alone, the TDs would just bolster him into elite status. 

If he found the endzone, his line would look like Davante Adams. 

i hate banking on tds to win at fantasy, tds are flukey. 

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