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Tampa Bay Rays 2021 Outlook


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On 11/10/2020 at 7:19 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

I wouldn't write off the Rays minus Morton though, they just need one pitcher to step up to be close to that level to be at the "same place", and while that player might not be obvious right now, it could be a value free agent, or one of their bulk guys improving or a prospect. Can't count at the Rays to find someone.

 

 

 

Welp, now they need two.  Getting back to the World Series without Snell, Morton, and one of the best offensive postseasons of all time is going to be difficult. Not impossible, but feels like they need more to go right now.

 

I think they got some good pieces for the future between this trade and getting Heiberto though.

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Alright folks...In what should be one of the hottest threads of the year...Let's begin looking at what 2021 might look like for the Tampa Bay Rays, and the many questions that will likely surround the

Tampa lost to the Phillies in 2008.12 years later in their next appearance they lost to the Dodgers in 2020. In 2008 with BJ Upton playing the star role they prolly expected a next world series to be

I don't get the non exercise of the contract either 15 million either.  As you said it's one year deal. There are basically no bad one year deals. If Robbie Ray is getting 9 in free agency, Morton for

1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Welp, now they need two.  Getting back to the World Series without Snell, Morton, and one of the best offensive postseasons of all time is going to be difficult. Not impossible, but feels like they need more to go right now.

 

I think they got some good pieces for the future between this trade and getting Heiberto though.

Nah, I will go ahead and say they are screwed as currently constructed. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Welp, now they need two.  Getting back to the World Series without Snell, Morton, and one of the best offensive postseasons of all time is going to be difficult. Not impossible, but feels like they need more to go right now.

I think they got some good pieces for the future between this trade and getting Heiberto though.

I like their deals.  I like their sustainability with what they have to work with budget wise.  I like they now have THREE catchers -- two prospects and one still very young -- to trade a few of those away for whatever they need.  I like that Luis Pitino gets a chance to start this year.  That Shane McClanahan may get a chance too and maybe even Shane Baz gets to come up early after June call-ups.  Tampa Bay has a pitching factory so I'm not worried about their ability to field a decent pitching staff.  The one major mistake I think they made was trading Nate Lowe away to stick with Choi instead.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Nah, I will go ahead and say they are screwed as currently constructed. 

 

I wouldn't say screwed, but they seem weaker than they finished the season.  It's worth reiterating that regardless of how good Randy will be, I'm not sure his postseason can be topped by him.  Like it's less than 5% I'd think, and even that may be high.  So they need to improve elsewhere, and seemingly they've lost 2/3 best pitchers.   I get that money is tough and it's a business, but seems poopy to do after getting to the WS. 

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I just went over to Roster Resource to see what the future looks like and Tampa has practically a whole new team coming up:

Franco (SS) - 2021

Brujan/Walls/Jones/Edwards (IF) - 2021/2022

Hernandez/Hunt (C) - 2022/2023

J Lowe (OF) - 2021

Patino/McClanahan/Baz  (SP) - 2021/2022

All of these guys are ranked high within the org and most are ranked overall.  As to current players, Adames, Aroz, Mejia, and Meadows are 25, B Lowe is 26, Glasnow is 27, McKay is 25, Honeywell Jr is 25, and the bullpen is pretty dirty in its own right at this moment.

2 years from now the team could be:

Mejia - B Lowe - Brujan - Franco - Adames - Arozarena - J Lowe - Meadows 👀

Glasnow - Patino - McKay - McClanahan - Honeywell Jr 👀

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25 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

2 years from now the team could be:

Mejia - B Lowe - Brujan - Franco - Adames - Arozarena - J Lowe - Meadows 👀

Glasnow - Patino - McKay - McClanahan - Honeywell Jr 👀

 

Just to put things in perspective, the projected rotation 2 years from now that you 👀ed seems considerably worse than the Padres or even White Sox  rotation right now and it's 2 years away and by then Glasnow will be close to free agency. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Basically, this isn’t so bad for the Rays, just hard for fantasy baseball. The Rays are going to go further down the rabbit hole with their pitching plans.  Watch how every game will have an opener, a 3 inning guy (makes some sense for injury prone Glasnow) and for Wacha, who I believe has a much better first 3 inning ERA. Than it’s on to bullpen by committee.  Qs are gone, wins and saves will be a crapshoot.  But the Rays are far from done..they are just going to be more creative and step on more toes.

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12 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Basically, this isn’t so bad for the Rays, just hard for fantasy baseball. The Rays are going to go further down the rabbit hole with their pitching plans.  Watch how every game will have an opener, a 3 inning guy (makes some sense for injury prone Glasnow) and for Wacha, who I believe has a much better first 3 inning ERA. Than it’s on to bullpen by committee.  Qs are gone, wins and saves will be a crapshoot.  But the Rays are far from done..they are just going to be more creative and step on more toes.

Agree with this 100%. 

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22 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Basically, this isn’t so bad for the Rays, just hard for fantasy baseball. The Rays are going to go further down the rabbit hole with their pitching plans.  Watch how every game will have an opener, a 3 inning guy (makes some sense for injury prone Glasnow) and for Wacha, who I believe has a much better first 3 inning ERA. Than it’s on to bullpen by committee.  Qs are gone, wins and saves will be a crapshoot.  But the Rays are far from done..they are just going to be more creative and step on more toes.

 

Hard on the fans of any organization as well that cannot keep it's best players because of money.    The Rays did well getting a few good prospects.

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16 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Just to put things in perspective, the projected rotation 2 years from now that you 👀ed seems considerably worse than the Padres or even White Sox  rotation right now and it's 2 years away and by then Glasnow will be close to free agency. 

 

I'm not sure what you're point is here; I never said TB would have the best rotation in the game, just that they have a near full team of prospects many of whom are very good.  It feels like you're nitpicking. 

SD's situation can be nitpicked too: Clev is FA is 2023. 2024 SD will see Darvish, Snell, and Lamet be FAs.  2025 it's Paddack.  So the Pads have effectively two-three years to win a world series.  Machado can opt out in 2023, Pham is FA in 2022, Myers in 2022, and Tatis will be looking for payday.  Can't pay them all.

CHW see Giolito FA in 2024, Lynn and Keuchel in 2022, Cease and Kopech will be around but there's nothing jumping out of their farm system at the moment.  Grandal, Eaton, Abreu, will all be gone in 2 years but they do get to keep Anderson, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, and Madrigal for a bit longer which is nice.

So no team is primed to win it every year.  Some go all in now like SD, others are playing for 2-3 years down the line like TB.  Of course TB's rotation is worse than SD and CWS right now, but I doubt highly it will be in 3 years. 

 

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49 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

I'm not sure what you're point is here; I never said TB would have the best rotation in the game, just that they have a near full team of prospects many of whom are very good.  It feels like you're nitpicking..... Of course TB's rotation is worse than SD and CWS right now, but I doubt highly it will be in 3 years. 

 

My point is that 2023 hypothetical rotation isn't that good IMO.  Banking on those 4 pitching prospects to hit is fool's gold IMO and it's far behind the current Padres rotation and decent chance a step back from their rotation last year.  So waiting 2 years for a rotation that could easily be worse than last year's  isn't that sexy IMO.

 

2 years from now Glasnow will be entering his final season and likely traded too.  If not, they'll have 1 year to make it all work. 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

My point is that 2023 hypothetical rotation isn't that good IMO.  Banking on those 4 pitching prospects to hit is fool's gold IMO and it's far behind the current Padres rotation and decent chance a step back from their rotation last year.  So waiting 2 years for a rotation that could easily be worse than last year's  isn't that sexy IMO.

 

2 years from now Glasnow will be entering his final season and likely traded too.  If not, they'll have 1 year to make it all work. 

 

 

 

 

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This is correct. There is so many problems with projecting prospect sps. As a white sox fan I look and say Kopech, Cease, Dunning, Crochet all could be studs, but Kopech sat out a year and has mental issues, Cease sucks, Dunning got traded for Lynn who has 1 year, and Crochet already has arm issues.

What the Padres did was get proven talent in Darvish, Snell, Clevinger to go along with Lamet, Paddack, Gore. That's how you do it. 

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  • 1 month later...

Rays apparently in the sweepstakes for Marcell Ozuna.

Not sure how it would work money-wise, but this would be a BIGGGGG GET for the Rays if they can pull this off.

Ozuna is the big bat that we need in the middle of our order. Especially with Brujan and Wander coming, and the emergence of Randy Arozarena.

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And the Rays fail again....as only the Rays can.

A franchise that is ok with being “good, but not great”

Sucks being a fan sometimes. 

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12 hours ago, CORTEz said:

And the Rays fail again....as only the Rays can.

A franchise that is ok with being “good, but not great”

Sucks being a fan sometimes. 

The "good but not great" philosophy is sadly spreading upwards to bigger-market teams like the Cubs and Red Sox too.  Sucks for baseball overall but I guess bodes well for the Rays via weaker competition?  Sox seem to be mailing it in for the next 2 years at least.  

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1 hour ago, OaksterDan said:

The "good but not great" philosophy is sadly spreading upwards to bigger-market teams like the Cubs and Red Sox too.  Sucks for baseball overall but I guess bodes well for the Rays via weaker competition?  Sox seem to be mailing it in for the next 2 years at least.  

After this year the reset and Pedroia's contract etc will be over and the Red Sox will go big again.  That is what all big teams do with the luxury tax re-set cycle.  They had to re-set and it came when they needed to rebuild some anyway.  2022 they will go after some elite players.

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1 hour ago, OaksterDan said:

The "good but not great" philosophy is sadly spreading upwards to bigger-market teams like the Cubs and Red Sox too.  Sucks for baseball overall but I guess bodes well for the Rays via weaker competition?  Sox seem to be mailing it in for the next 2 years at least.  

It's a problem for a lot of reasons right now.

There's two things happening simultaneously:

1. The Rays and a few other teams are starting to utilize this philosophy more and more now (with the Rays obviously being the front-runners of this). So now more and more teams are going to be following suit with this way of thinking, as well as "micro-managing" like the Rays do.

2. The big-name clubs (aka, the NYY, LAD, and a few others), aren't going to ever follow this mold, and will continue to try and "buy their championships". There's already a huge disparity between payrolls, and quite honestly, it's only going to get worse.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

After this year the reset and Pedroia's contract etc will be over and the Red Sox will go big again.  That is what all big teams do with the luxury tax re-set cycle.  They had to re-set and it came when they needed to rebuild some anyway.  2022 they will go after some elite players.

I believe they hit the tax reset mark after last season, yet they failed to go after anyone this off-season. I could be wrong about them being under though.

 

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18 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

I believe they hit the tax reset mark after last season, yet they failed to go after anyone this off-season. I could be wrong about them being under though.

 

OT:  The point is they are in re-set/rebuild mode.  Pedroia's money off the books for next year too.  Next year has been their target date all along especially after they knew Sale wouldn't pitch anywhere near a full season for them this year.

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20 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

OT:  The point is they are in re-set/rebuild mode.  Pedroia's money off the books for next year too.  Next year has been their target date all along especially after they knew Sale wouldn't pitch anywhere near a full season for them this year.

At risk of hijacking the Rays thread - but I don't think Chaim Bloom was hired to do anything but mimic the star-dumping Rays system while keeping the Red Sox competitive/"good but not great".  I doubt we see them spend over the luxury tax again anytime soon.  Hope I'm wrong.  

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2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Every year it seems like this team gets counted out for being awful on paper and they outperform everyone's expectations on the field.

They are going to have to rely heavily on a bullpen that was fantastic in 60 games plus playoffs, but I doubt can replicate the same success in a 162 game season.  I do like their offense, but they were a bit exposed in the World Series.  Of course there are not a lot of pitching staffs like the Dodgers in the AL East.  I see this division as up in the air with the Yankees as the favorite if they can have a modicum of health.  I definitely don't think the Rays will be awful, they most certainly took a large step back from last year, but will benefit from no other team in the division really standing out IMO.  I think the "unjuicing" of the balls will hurt them more than help as they are a team that relies heavily on the long ball.   

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Chris Archer - Rich Hill - Michael Wacha - Colin McHugh additions to go with Glasnow and Yarb, then Patino - Baz - McKay - McClannahan all can make starts as well depending on their progressions.

Pretty good job filling in pieces after the Snell and Morton losses IMO, lots of opportunity at reclamation projects here with their history with pitchers

 

Another season of praying the offense can improve, hears to hoping Randy gets better and sustains production and Wander is the savior 

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