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Mookie Betts 2021 Outlook


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16 minutes ago, tonywow said:

If any of you are first time owners he's always been rather streaky. He's not always going to be a big help in weekly leagues, that's just how sporadic his production tends to be. I'll admit I haven't followed him this season, but everything I'm reading in the thread sounds exactly like what has been said in seasons past. In the end he should have fairly respectable numbers, but he will certainly have many weeks of FA level contributions with some hot streaks here and there. 

He’s been a** cheeks all year long. I’ve had mookie before, this is just straight up trash production. 

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Not bad for a guy with a slight frame and a horrible contract and on the precipice of falling off a cliff!

This is a fantasy forum but when people start complaining about real life contract $$$ (in a non salary cap league), real life performance becomes relevant. Mookie is definitely disappointing in

true irony

6 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

In their defense, he did help them win a World Series.  That alone makes it worth it, right?

You know... it was a Mickey Mouse ring though in a weird season. I know it counted but it felt kinda weird when it happened. I don’t think he was worth the contract but I hope he and Bellinger get it turned around 

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6 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

In their defense, he did help them win a World Series.  That alone makes it worth it, right?

Yes, and forever will. Even if they were the worst team in the league every year for the duration (which they won't). 

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They would have won whether or not they gave him the contract though. It wasn't a FA signing but more of a contract extension unless you feel he played better after signing. In which his poor start could be blamed on him signing and getting paid.

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All of these mega contracts are regrettable well before they end.  We can probably count on one hand how many of these mega deals haven't become albatrosses.  So many teams end up paying to get rid of the money left on them, or simply cut bait before they end.  With the obvious history surrounding them it's mind boggling why teams keep inking guys to such awful deals.  That said, Betts is in his prime and will be himself before long.  He's too good, and too young, to keep playing mediocre ball.  I'd be looking to buy if you think his owner is at all frustrated and willing to move him. 

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16 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

All of these mega contracts are regrettable well before they end.  We can probably count on one hand how many of these mega deals haven't become albatrosses.  So many teams end up paying to get rid of the money left on them, or simply cut bait before they end.  With the obvious history surrounding them it's mind boggling why teams keep inking guys to such awful deals.  That said, Betts is in his prime and will be himself before long.  He's too good, and too young, to keep playing mediocre ball.  I'd be looking to buy if you think his owner is at all frustrated and willing to move him. 

Makes you think why teams have not learned from the past and not given any years past age 37 . Why the hell you want to be on the hook for 30 million a yr on a age 38-42 player? Makes 0 sense to me .

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It's really hard for people to comprehend that you pay for the prime years knowing that you get bad years on the end.  The goal of a baseball team isn't to maximize every player getting what they produce in a given year, it's to win games and ultimately a championship. 

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

It's really hard for people to comprehend that you pay for the prime years knowing that you get bad years on the end.  The goal of a baseball team isn't to maximize every player getting what they produce in a given year, it's to win games and ultimately a championship. 

Or some people feel he will never be as good as he was in age 23, 24, 25 year seasons, and to me those are the most valuable year of a players lifespan or prime years. (Age 22-27). He was past his prime years really when they signed him to this deal 
 

hes 28 now. Do you think they gave him $300+ million for his age 27, 28, and 29 year old seasons, or that those are prime years in baseball? 
 

Them running into a title isn’t the magical bail out for him not being a $300 M player. 

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On 6/13/2021 at 3:11 PM, mevins31 said:

hes 28 now. Do you think they gave him $300+ million for his age 27, 28, and 29 year old seasons, or that those are prime years in baseball?

27-29 are absolutely prime years in baseball. Some aging curve data here.

Quote

wOBA rapidly rises from 19 to 26 before gradually flattening out, reaching a peak at 29. Changes between 27 and 29 are very gradual. Starting at 30, wOBA steadily declines, first gradually, and then more steeply after 34. Past research typically finds peak age anywhere from 26 to 29—pretty similar to these findings where most significant development happens before 27.

 

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Just glad we are all in agreement it’s within the prime years of baseball - no dispute 

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Just glad we are all in agreement it’s within the prime years of baseball - no dispute 

His prime was years ago. We can argue about when a guy peaks but he’s Carl Crawford 2.0 and there’s not much that can save it. 
 

Mookie also appears to have the immune system of Charlie Sheen. He should be careful 

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2 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

His prime was years ago. We can argue about when a guy peaks but he’s Carl Crawford 2.0 and there’s not much that can save it. 
 

Mookie also appears to have the immune system of Charlie Sheen. He should be careful 

K. 
 

There’s a Vent/Rant thread here on this forum.

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Even his defense seems to be lacking this year. Missed a play last night that I would expect him, or any other top tier RF, to make pretty consistently. As little as three months ago I would've said he's the best defensive RF in the game, not right though, but he could make me think that again very quickly. 

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9 hours ago, BMcP said:

Just glad we are all in agreement it’s within the prime years of baseball - no dispute 

There was actually a study on power/speed players normally peak earlier and normally hit decline at age 27... Fangraphs I believe.

Regardless not all players age the same and Mookie's statcast data signals he peaked 4 years ago in 2018 been in decline since then in Barrels, Hard Hit, Avg Exit Velo, Max Exit Velo, and Sprint Speed... Good launch angle has not changed it's bounced around between 18.5 - 19.2.

Dodgers are going to be holding the bag for 12 years and Verdugo is already better.

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33 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

There was actually a study on power/speed players normally peak earlier and normally hit decline at age 27... Fangraphs I believe.

Regardless not all players age the same and Mookie's statcast data signals he peaked 4 years ago in 2018 been in decline since then in Barrels, Hard Hit, Avg Exit Velo, Max Exit Velo, and Sprint Speed... Good launch angle has not changed it's bounced around between 18.5 - 19.2.

Dodgers are going to be holding the bag for 12 years and Verdugo is already better.

Statcat wise, 2018 and 19 seem to be the outlier seasons for Betts.  15, 16, 17, 20 and 21 more similar than different. 

Baring injury, I suspect he will have a career trajectory about like McCutchen. Peak 24-26 seasons, followed by a slow but steady decline.  His plate discipline will prevent a precipitous decline I think.  In dynasty, I'm still buying, but with the expectation of a top 25 player over the next few years instead of a top 10, gradually declining over the next 5 years to maybe top 150-200. Talented players like him also can have a surprise return to peak skills for a half season or two if everything comes together. 

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Haven't been paying much attention to Mookie.  After reading this thread, I checked Fangraphs expecting to see disaster.  131 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR so far.  Projected to finish the year just shy of 6 fWAR.

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20 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Haven't been paying much attention to Mookie.  After reading this thread, I checked Fangraphs expecting to see disaster.  131 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR so far.  Projected to finish the year just shy of 6 fWAR.

That's cool and all but doesn't change the fact that he's playing nowhere near his ADP.  This is a fantasy forum after all. 

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11 hours ago, mevins31 said:

His prime was years ago. We can argue about when a guy peaks but he’s Carl Crawford 2.0 and there’s not much that can save it. 
 

Mookie also appears to have the immune system of Charlie Sheen. He should be careful 

I traded him for bregman two years ago. While bregman hasn't been fantastic I will not value stolen bases in a guys value past 25.

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33 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I could have sworn I read that it’s this for pitches but for hitters it’s 22-25? 

Not even close for batters, a male's physical prime is years after that. Speed is the only thing that will peak at 22-25yo.

Quote

Author J. C. Bradbury, author of “The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed”, has found another method of analyzing the performance of baseball hitters and pitchers, one that seems closer to reality, taking into account many factors James seemed to overlook in his essay. His results put the peak performance for both hitters and pitchers around the age of 29 – on average, that is. When it comes to specific tasks, like hitting, pitching, walking, and such, the ages of peak performance differ. “Hitters peak in batting and slugging average at 28 while continuing to improve in their home-run hitting and walking abilities until 30 and 32, respectively,” he wrote. “Pitcher strikeout ability peaks around 24, while walk prevention peaks nine years later. Again, veteran know-how appears to be playing a role in improving performance to compensate for diminishing physical skills.”

 

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6 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Not even close for batters, a male's physical prime is years after that. Speed is the only thing that will peak at 22-25yo.

 

Yeah I remember reading about that study from 2010 but thought there was a more updated line of thought out there.  I can’t remember what I read though so lol maybe it doesn’t exist 

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23 minutes ago, IDGAFOS said:

That's cool and all but doesn't change the fact that he's playing nowhere near his ADP.  This is a fantasy forum after all. 

That's fair that he hasn't  been good compared to his ADP in a 5x5 fantasy league, but people saying he's been bad or over the hill or stuff like that is where it comes off as silly if he's pacing for 6 fWAR.  Batting average and stolen bases don't matter nearly as much in actual baseball as it does for your fantasy team.

Career 135 WRC+. 2021: 131, BABIP 266 this year, career 309.  

He's been very good, even if he's not helping you win a fantasy baseball championship. 

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On 6/13/2021 at 12:11 PM, mevins31 said:

 

Them running into a title isn’t the magical bail out for him not being a $300 M player. 

Actually it is.  The goal is to win a championship, not get your money's worth out of a player like the A's do every year. Good for them though. 

By my calculations 29 teams don't win a championship this year. If they overpaid or underpaid their players per production, who cares? I think the same next year too.

 

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