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Mookie Betts 2021 Outlook


fawkes_mulder
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20 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Yeah I remember reading about that study from 2010 but thought there was a more updated line of thought out there.  I can’t remember what I read though so lol maybe it doesn’t exist 

The link I quoted is updated. They used to say 27yo was the peak but that guys study showed otherwise. Hitters def aren't peaking at 22-25yo, most of them aren't even up in the bigs until the tail end of that age range.

Edited by KrunK
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1 hour ago, IDGAFOS said:

That's cool and all but doesn't change the fact that he's playing nowhere near his ADP.  This is a fantasy forum after all. 

This is a fantasy forum but when people start complaining about real life contract $$$ (in a non salary cap league), real life performance becomes relevant.

Mookie is definitely disappointing in fantasy, no question about it, some of that is related to these frequent siestas that Dave Roberts is giving him. They're resting him a lot this season. As a dodgers fan if he balls out in the playoffs, I won't be complaining, but I get the fantasy complaints. We already won a world series though, so the question about "was Mookie worth it?" is already a resounding yes and forever will be.

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18 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

We already won a world series though, so the question about "was Mookie worth it?" is already a resounding yes and forever will be.

This is exactly what I was just saying about Jason Heyward with the Cubs, and he's an even bigger contract albatross. Mookie is hardly done as a productive player. Flags fly forever. However you want to judge these moves, they are ultimately successful. 

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1 hour ago, Richard Kimble said:

This is exactly what I was just saying about Jason Heyward with the Cubs, and he's an even bigger contract albatross. Mookie is hardly done as a productive player. Flags fly forever. However you want to judge these moves, they are ultimately successful. 

Let's be real, Heyward had about as much to do with that WS win on the field as the Cubs fans did lol. 

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1 hour ago, KrunK said:

Let's be real, Heyward had about as much to do with that WS win on the field as the Cubs fans did lol. 

It's true, but how butthurt can a franchise be over a 9 figure deal not working out when they won their first championship in over 100 years during that span?  Most 9 figure deals in general don't lead to a championship.  Last 3 champions all had at least 1 that were a reason they won it though.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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18 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

It's true, but how butthurt can a franchise be over a 9 figure deal not working out when they won their first championship in over 100 years during that span?  Most 9 figure deals in general don't lead to a championship.  Last 3 champions all had at least 1 that were a reason they won it though.

I mean, I'm sure they wish they'd located that $180M elsewhere since he's accumulated less war in 6 seasons with the cubs than he did in his previous two seasons before signing his deal. Not like he hit a walkoff or something in the WS and directly helped them win it, the cubs could have thrown any defensive minded OFer in his spot and been fine and likely got more offensive production. They could have put that money elsewhere and potentially won another ship. Instead they're throwing $20M+ a year at a dude whose hit .146 in the playoffs with 2 XBHs.

Edited by KrunK
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23 hours ago, KrunK said:

The link I quoted is updated. They used to say 27yo was the peak but that guys study showed otherwise. Hitters def aren't peaking at 22-25yo, most of them aren't even up in the bigs until the tail end of that age range.

The overwhelmingly majority of hitters (particularly non-roiding hitters) usually have had the best year of their professional career by the time they are 27-28.  This is very well documented. 

Edited by Overlord
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On 6/25/2021 at 12:51 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

This is a fantasy forum but when people start complaining about real life contract $$$ (in a non salary cap league), real life performance becomes relevant.

Mookie is definitely disappointing in fantasy, no question about it, some of that is related to these frequent siestas that Dave Roberts is giving him. They're resting him a lot this season. As a dodgers fan if he balls out in the playoffs, I won't be complaining, but I get the fantasy complaints. We already won a world series though, so the question about "was Mookie worth it?" is already a resounding yes and forever will be.

He was going to be on the Dodgers in 2020 regardless of the contract extension.  How can you say the 2020 win makes his extension worth it?

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10 minutes ago, IDGAFOS said:

He was going to be on the Dodgers in 2020 regardless of the contract extension.  How can you say the 2020 win makes his extension worth it?

Was what I was thinking but couldn't place when the extensivion happened. Might have relieved the pressure on Betts maybe?

 

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4 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

He was going to be on the Dodgers in 2020 regardless of the contract extension.  How can you say the 2020 win makes his extension worth it?

You don't know how he plays without an extension. Different universe.  They signed him to an extension and they won the World Series. Maybe they would have won easier, maybe not at all. Don't think any rational Dodger supporter will ever look back badly at Betts.  There will be people who complain in his later years when he was bad, but there are Red Sox fans who literally complain about the David Price contract even though he helped them win a World Series. That's just dumb.  If a player helps you win it all, pretty much clean slate forever honestly.  Championships are hard to win.  When the Mookie Betts contract is over, well over 50% and maybe even well over 70% of teams won't have won a championships in that time span.

 

4 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Benching this week. Hope he gets going. 

don't

Edited by brockpapersizer
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 6/13/2021 at 11:00 AM, brockpapersizer said:

It's really hard for people to comprehend that you pay for the prime years knowing that you get bad years on the end.  The goal of a baseball team isn't to maximize every player getting what they produce in a given year, it's to win games and ultimately a championship. 

Yes I have heard that argument and it makes zero sense to me.  You basically hang an albatross around the team during that player's latter years thus preventing the team to max out their potential and win far more championships.  Dodger fans down the road want a winning  team too.  Short term returns, and I think the Dodgers would have won last year without him anyway, that screw with a franchise are short sighted.

Kind of like that classic Stanford marshmallow experiment from years ago.  https://jamesclear.com/delayed-gratification

The kids that showed patience gained the most in the end not just 15 minutes later but throughout life.  Teams should study this more before they make outrageous commitments to players for hoped for instant gratification rewards.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yes I have heard that argument and it makes zero sense to me.  You basically hang an albatross around the team during that player's latter years thus preventing the team to max out their potential and win far more championships.  Dodger fans down the road want a winning  team too.  Short term returns, and I think the Dodgers would have won last year without him anyway, that screw with a franchise are short sighted.

Kind of like that classic Stanford marshmallow experiment from years ago.  https://jamesclear.com/delayed-gratification

The kids that showed patience gained the most in the end not just 15 minutes later but throughout life.  Teams should study this more before they make outrageous commitments to players for hoped for instant gratification rewards.

Hey quoted from a month ago today for some reason.  I mean you are on record on saying the Dodgers ruined everything when the traded for Betts, and then they proceded to win a championship. So like,  ok. 🤪

I hate to break it to you but the Dodgers farm is up there with the best of them right now. Nobody wins it all every year, but the Dodgers don't project to be rebuilding any time soon.  Last 3 champions have all had mega contracts.  All that matters is winning the ship, and they did it already. They may or may not win it all this year, but they're going to  be very good this year and next year and the year after.

Mookie might not have deserved to be an all-star this year maybe, but he wasn't far off.  He's having a really good, but not elite real life year.

The moneyball As have yet to make it to the world series or even league series. Not the GMs fault because he can't send but that's a big reason why they haven't.

Not sure how many teams besides the Mariners I'd say have a better farm than the Dodgers, but it's not many. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 minutes ago, Max Rockatansky said:

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I mean he is a perfectionist, that's a good attitude to have. Wouldn't you want someone striving to do better. Might not be killing it for your fantasy team but a half season 2.2 war is very good. Free agent war is estimated to be 1/10 million. Anyone who thinks Mookie Betts has been bad this season (including him) is laughably and objectively wrong.

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