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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook


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I kinda think he'd have had a better 2020 if Covid never happened, he was making good progress and then pretty much gained it back during the pandemic.  From what I saw anyway.  Won't be as good as Soto most likely, but a big breakout is still in the cards.

 

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Yeah I think he will be part of the spoiled kids in baseball that don’t amount to much like Cal Ripken Jr, Ken Griffey Jr, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds...

Two months ago you wrote "he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground" which is exactly the type of insinuation of which you speak.  

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would be rare for a player who ate his way to 1B to go to a real position afterward. Much more likely he eats his way to DH or another team. Losing the weight is great but having gained it once it is more likely to blow back up higher than before. the yoyo effect is a real syndrome.

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The launch angle is an issue but Vlad can still be a beast without adjusting his launch angle kind of like Juan Soto. 
 

Vlad hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball and doesn’t strikeout (again similar to Soto). 
 

The fact that he’s owning up to his mistakes and clearly putting in major work this offseason is very encouraging for the breakout we’ve all been waiting for. That being said, he’s still only 21!!

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7 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Definitely not drafting considering his adp is probably going to be higher than ever. He’s been a bust the past two seasons relative to his adp. At this point it seems like a fools bet to draft him, I’d rather not take the chance...

 

I don't see his ADP being better than it was the last 2 years, but we shall see. 

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I don't see his ADP being better than it was the last 2 years, but we shall see. 

I think it comes down to: does a rookie year struggle and then a covid season struggle diminish people's opinions on Vlad for 2021 and beyond? 

 

I'm interested to see where he goes in dynasty leagues versus redraft leagues. 

 

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1 minute ago, fishingguy12345 said:

I think it comes down to: does a rookie year struggle and then a covid season struggle diminish people's opinions on Vlad for 2021 and beyond? 

 

I'm interested to see where he goes in dynasty leagues versus redraft leagues. 

 

 

I think some shine has certainly worn off on him.  I do agree with Mason, we'll have to see in spring what he looks like and what he's doing, but I do think there is potential for a big breakout as soon as this next season. 

 

 

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook
9 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

You’re right his ADP will probably be 60~ 

all things considered it’s a decent gamble, I’d rather take a batter with a better floor.

 

In NFBC draft rooms (way early) but probably the best adp to gage for the time being he is 51st overall and the 5th 1b with Voit and Hosmer both not too far behind.

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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

That's a good comp. 2019 Devers type season from Vlad isn't unreasonable at all. But I think there is another gear, think Soto.

 

Man, I do get the feeling Soto=Trout and Vlad = Harper. I think Vlad is going to be good but if we're setting the bar that might  might be a disappointment. People consider Bryce Harper a disappointment which is just stupid. You should be judged against your peers not your prospect hype. Either way I'll say no on Vlad reaching Soto level and hope to be wrong. Not so much a knock on Vlad but that Soto is just insane.

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Steamer is projecting .299/.373/.528 with 31/93/99/3. Looks a lot like what a young Miggy Cabrera put up at a similar age in 2004: .294/.366/.525 with 33/101/112/5. Personally I'd take the under of Vlad's projections for 2021 but won't be surprised to see him become a perennial first rounder in fantasy someday. 

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

Steamer is projecting .299/.373/.528 with 31/93/99/3. Looks a lot like what a young Miggy Cabrera put up at a similar age in 2004: .294/.366/.525 with 33/101/112/5. Personally I'd take the under of Vlad's projections for 2021 but won't be surprised to see him become a perennial first rounder in fantasy someday. 

 

"Someday" is the problem here.  He's going as a 4th/5th rounder in early 2021 drafts, which is a lot to wager on an upside gamble.

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57 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

"Someday" is the problem here.  He's going as a 4th/5th rounder in early 2021 drafts, which is a lot to wager on an upside gamble.

Agree 100%. He was a fade for me in 2019 and 2020 and I expect that to continue in 2021 if he's getting drafted in the top 60. The launch angle concern has been discussed over and over, but I also have to question his motivation levels. He showed up to camp out of shape in 2019 and then in 2020 let himself go between spring camp and summer camp. From Fangraphs:

Also, Guerrero blew off training between the Spring and Summer camp.

Guerrero also spoke about how the months-long delay of the season affected his conditioning, saying he was in shape for the first spring training but struggled heading into the second one, confirming he was not physically prepared to play this past summer once the league got the go-ahead to begin.

 

Maybe it's not concerning to most, but you don't hear too often about such elite, young talents having difficulty putting in the work when they haven't gotten paid yet.

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