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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook


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4 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

fantasy owners are treating him like a top 20 player. cant fault them.

In my points league he’s still the number 3 overall batter. I can’t believe people (not you) still don’t get the concept that an ungodly month long tear might lead to a two week regression. It’s a 162 game long season. 162 games. Long. Season. Lots of ups and downs. 

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Two months ago you wrote "he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground" which is exactly the type of insinuation of which you speak.  

Yeah I think he will be part of the spoiled kids in baseball that don’t amount to much like Cal Ripken Jr, Ken Griffey Jr, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds...

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12 hours ago, mevins31 said:

He could easily still go .275/25 .850 OPS or .810

 

 

5 hours ago, mevins31 said:

I think those could be his final numbers still, actually pretty easily. 

So you're expecting him to completely stop hitting and then get hurt or? The average wouldn't be crazy to see, but his OPS tanking that drastically to end up at .810, and only 18 HR in his final ~ 120 games both seem rather unlikely. Barring injury that would have to be something like a bottom 10% outcome for him

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

image.png.d3fb5cd1061f443c1f4ec557cc0b4a91.png

Can't believe he's not even rank 1. Not even double digit homers after 6 weeks? Absolute bum. Sell low while you can fellas.

Edited by collucho
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12 hours ago, cs3 said:

 

So you're expecting him to completely stop hitting and then get hurt or? The average wouldn't be crazy to see, but his OPS tanking that drastically to end up at .810, and only 18 HR in his final ~ 120 games both seem rather unlikely. Barring injury that would have to be something like a bottom 10% outcome for him

 

 

 

How many games did he play in 2019 when he hit 15 home runs ? 
 

in 60 games in 2020 he hit 9. How many was he on pace for?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

How many games did he play in 2019 when he hit 15 home runs ? 
 

in 60 games in 2020 he hit 9. How many was he on pace for?

Weird that every single ROS projection system disagrees with you, even though they heavily weight the most recent seasons (IE your 2019 and 2020 fixation) AND also regress everything towards league averages.

Edited by cs3
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2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

How many games did he play in 2019 when he hit 15 home runs ? 
 

in 60 games in 2020 he hit 9. How many was he on pace for?

Is Vlad your new Bryce? 🍿

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2 hours ago, JoeSas said:

Is Vlad your new Bryce? 🍿

I still miss the Jay Bruce years

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9 hours ago, cs3 said:

Weird that every single ROS projection system disagrees with you, even though they heavily weight the most recent seasons (IE your 2019 and 2020 fixation) AND also regress everything towards league averages.

Fixation on his career numbers ? Is there another body of work that one could look at and say he could regress to slightly better than his career norms? Time will tell I guess, and it will be pretty black and white 

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2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Fixation on his career numbers ? Is there another body of work that one could look at and say he could regress to slightly better than his career norms? Time will tell I guess, and it will be pretty black and white 

You're making no sense. Take your "L" and keep it moving.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/15/2021 at 3:53 PM, mevins31 said:

Great post. It’s exciting to think Vlad is a superstar but honestly he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground and has an exciting name. He’s not Jesse James, in fact he isn’t even the guy who shot Jesse James yet

 

On 5/9/2021 at 12:13 PM, mevins31 said:

Under .200 in May.

OPS under .600

ground balls galore. I don’t think anyone here would insinuate he’s not good. Your victory lap was premature. 

 

On 5/13/2021 at 12:18 PM, mevins31 said:

Spin if you want. He’s stopped hitting. Yes he had a game he had 3 hits. Count it or take it away. He’s going back to... vlad he was 

Since your first post this week Vlad is OPSing like 2000. Homered in 4/6 games. 2 3 hit games, another double today. Whatever.  Quadrupling down on your take. If you want to quintuple it, have fun.  Most everyone in this thread seems to understand. the ebbs and flows of baseball stats.

 

Vlad came into today was the 5th best hitter per WRC+, i think a homer and a double could potentially push that up to #2 behind Trout after today. These numbers will come down, but for someone who "was going the wrong way" in May and hitting too many grounders, he has a better WRC+ for this year than Mike Trout's career one. Seems good.

 

Wherever he ends up, pretty sure he's not going to end up the Vlad he was in 2019. (which was pretty good for a 20 year old, just and per ADP and some maybe unrealistic immediate expectations) Seems pretty obvious, but I dunno, it's baseball. 

 

EjK8K3F.png

 

It's May 16th though, a lot of people were rushing to label people busts in April, we're not even 25% done with the season. Last year we would have been close to the end by now.

 

I'm no swing analyst at all, I'll leave that to the scouts. I'm just a guy who posts way too much on Sports Edge Forums (almost 20k), who thinks his swing might play in the majors. 

He's a lot of fun! Good for the Blue Jays!

Edited by brockpapersizer
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4 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

ya i was wrong about him.  easy 1st rounder....mid 1st round next year?

Still a four category guy at best, but sure likes prime Arenado type numbers at the moment. We’ll see if he can have a monster batting average to put him in the miggy/Pujols tier. You’d have to feel very good about him hitting 300+ to take him in round 1.

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

Still a four category guy at best, but sure likes prime Arenado type numbers at the moment. We’ll see if he can have a monster batting average to put him in the miggy/Pujols tier. You’d have to feel very good about him hitting 300+ to take him in round 1.

i was thinking Arenado myself. good call with miggy/pujols

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

i was thinking Arenado myself. good call with miggy/pujols

Prime Pujols was stealing like 10 bags or so, which is way more valuable now too. Really hard to justify taking a four category corner infielder top few picks , I likely wouldn’t do it, but still getting ahead of ourselves . The Miggy/Pujols statistical comps were thrown out by others (not me). Lots of people also said Manny Ramirez. 

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

Prime Pujols was stealing like 10 bags or so, which is way more valuable now too. Really hard to justify taking a four category corner infielder top few picks , I likely wouldn’t do it, but still getting ahead of ourselves . The Miggy/Pujols statistical comps were thrown out by others (not me). Lots of people also said Manny Ramirez. 

true i realize acuna, tatis (asuming healthy) and soto are more valuable...but would u take vlad jr over a turner or story?

id take vlad over Freddie F next year and at this point prob yelich

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Posted (edited)


kind of an arbitrary stat, cutting off at 23 years old, but still.. point is, he’s very good. 

Edited by osb_tensor
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2 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:


kind of an arbitrary stat, cutting off at 23 years old, but still.. point is, he’s very good. 

guy has nothing on Kevin Maas

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Pretty sure I've seen @mevins31hate on about every young player without a long track record. Not worth your time going back and forth with him IMO.

Young players don't ever get better just regress to career norms obviously. 

 

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