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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook


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Yeah I think he will be part of the spoiled kids in baseball that don’t amount to much like Cal Ripken Jr, Ken Griffey Jr, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds...

Two months ago you wrote "he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground" which is exactly the type of insinuation of which you speak.  

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I was pumped when our league implemented a minor leaguer and I got him.  Just cut him loose.

At the end of the day, you have a guy with very little speed. I learned a lesson there as far as prospects.  The fewer fantasy tools they have, the more everything has to go right.  

You have a guy who hits hard, but doesn't hit many home runs. And whatever the projections say, he is a .269 hitter so far.

You're hoping that a guy who barely has any interest in his craft/profession is going to make some kind of launch angle adjustment and put in a lot of work.  This is a dude who got to the majors and literally never lifted a weight.  It's encouraging that he has decided to do the absolute minimum and put down the GD fork once in a while, but I'm not convinced this is a man on a mission.

He's also at first now. There are plenty of nice gambles to take at first.  Why pass on a solid top 50 player to roll the dice that Vlad suddenly becomes a very good 4 cat player?  Would anybody be surprised if CJ Cron had a better season?  What about Mancini, who is also OF eligible?

I guess Vlad has a higher ceiling, but not by much. Mancini's 2019 actually is what people are hoping for from Vlad. Cron hit 30 bombs in Tampa and is going to Coors.  And Vlad's floor is lower too. Neither of these dudes are hitting 17 HRs if healthy.

Maybe he'll win the MVP but I think he's easily the most overdrafted guy going into the season.

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1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

I was pumped when our league implemented a minor leaguer and I got him.  Just cut him loose.

At the end of the day, you have a guy with very little speed. I learned a lesson there as far as prospects.  The fewer fantasy tools they have, the more everything has to go right.  

You have a guy who hits hard, but doesn't hit many home runs. And whatever the projections say, he is a .269 hitter so far.

You're hoping that a guy who barely has any interest in his craft/profession is going to make some kind of launch angle adjustment and put in a lot of work.  This is a dude who got to the majors and literally never lifted a weight.  It's encouraging that he has decided to do the absolute minimum and put down the GD fork once in a while, but I'm not convinced this is a man on a mission.

He's also at first now. There are plenty of nice gambles to take at first.  Why pass on a solid top 50 player to roll the dice that Vlad suddenly becomes a very good 4 cat player?  Would anybody be surprised if CJ Cron had a better season?  What about Mancini, who is also OF eligible?

I guess Vlad has a higher ceiling, but not by much. Mancini's 2019 actually is what people are hoping for from Vlad. Cron hit 30 bombs in Tampa and is going to Coors.  And Vlad's floor is lower too. Neither of these dudes are hitting 17 HRs if healthy.

Maybe he'll win the MVP but I think he's easily the most overdrafted guy going into the season.

Great post. It’s exciting to think Vlad is a superstar but honestly he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground and has an exciting name. He’s not Jesse James, in fact he isn’t even the guy who shot Jesse James yet

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Guy never lifts weight and he was embarrassingly out of shape ... hopefully this offseason he made a trip to the Wizard and was gifted some heart, cause what he really needs is for a fire to be lit under his arse.  

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4 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

I was pumped when our league implemented a minor leaguer and I got him.  Just cut him loose.

Even without knowing the details of your league, how many keepers, etc....you're still gonna look back to this moment and feel the agony of a catastrophically bad decision.

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1 hour ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Even without knowing the details of your league, how many keepers, etc....you're still gonna look back to this moment and feel the agony of a catastrophically bad decision.

Very possible.  But on the whole, I've found that in my shallow keeper league (not dynasty) it's not worth it to let a guy like this drag your team down for 2-3 years, hoping to get a short time of monster production before you have to let them go.

It was a close call between him and Voit, and I won't be surprised if Vlad pops this year.  But I also wouldn't be surprised if he hits .270 with 18 Hrs and 1 steal.  It's tough to win a championship when you have a guy like that and you feel like you can't take him out of your lineup.

You're also going to just bungle into enough good keepers that you don't need to sit on guys like this forever. Guys like Bieber (a couple years back) , who don't even think of as prime keepers when you draft them.

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There's going to be people who hold Acuna or Soto being better than Vlad over his head forever, but I still think Vlad is going to be pretty Damn good.

 

Look forward to seeing these takes 

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He's valuable because of untapped potential. If you base his projection on what he has done so far, then yeah, he's definitely overvalued. The fact is he hits the ball extremely hard. If he learns to hit it in the air, he will be a perennial 40+ HR hitter that doesn't hurt your average. People are banking on the Christian Yelich type leap, but there's probably even more power in Vlad's bat. Because of this, you have to overdraft on the chance he becomes a league winning type player.

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5 hours ago, Overlord said:

Guy never lifts weight and he was embarrassingly out of shape ... hopefully this offseason he made a trip to the Wizard and was gifted some heart, cause what he really needs is for a fire to be lit under his arse.  

This is an important point. As my friends says “there just no struggle in his eyes.” And that perhaps is something you can’t measure 

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4 hours ago, mevins31 said:

This is an important point. As my friends says “there just no struggle in his eyes.” And that perhaps is something you can’t measure 

Thankfully there’s a long history of tracking eye struggle as an indicator of bust potential. Nobody can see what’s in someone’s eyes. I swear, this is the one guy people always have something stuck in their craw for. The guy gets accused of being fat and lazy...and then loses 40+ pounds in one offseason and he’s still a loser who couldn’t possibly figure out how to elevate a baseball despite doing it like 50 times in a row one night during the home run derby. He’s the son of one of the game’s all time greats. I wonder if the launch angle topic has occurred to them in his training - or if only the folks on Rotoworld’s fantasy message forum have that figured out. Man, the time and effort people put into hating on this guy is unprecedented. 

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It's his birthday today, so how about a little positivity. The reason I'm optimistic is the 203 wRC+ in AA as a 19 year old. He had 35 XBH in 61 games in that same year in AA. And following that up with 175 wRC+ in AAA while still being 19. 

 

He's coming into his 22 year old season, in his third year in the majors while some highly rated prospects are still refining their game in AA at that age. When it clicks for him it's gonna be ridiculous. We've seen what a LA adjustment can do for mediocre players, imagine what it'll do for a guy with his exit velo's and plate discipline. 

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1 hour ago, summersoff7 said:

It feels like a funeral in here lol

one way or another, we're going to bring in those dancing casket dudes via gif later. I mean he had a rough rookie year, where he did get better towards the end.  I think last year was a non year for the most part, for lots of players. Really seemed like he got in shape, covid happened, and then he said f it, let's eat.  Maybe some other people can relate to that, I know I can. 

Acting like he's been in the league for a long time and has never put it together seems wrong. The only league I own him in from 2016, my team is great with or with or without him being good, so it's probably easier for me to not worry about it than people who paid a premium to acquire him. 

Baseball is patience, some players take a lot of time, I still don't even think we're at that point with Vlad. It's just extra frustrating for some people to see a much less touted Juan Soto turn into Ted Williams. Harper will never be better than Trout and Vlad will likely never be the slugger Soto is.  Vlad could still be really good, not saying he's Bryce Harper, but Bryce Harper is still close to a first round pick in start up dynasty leagues almost 10 years into his career.

The main issue here is "the prospect people got it wrong".  Which is fine, they get it wrong a lot. Nobody is forcing you to listen to consensus prospect opinions.  If there was someone doing it better, they would get attention. The top prospect analysts are still the top prospect analysts. I'm always looking for people who put out information and are "the most right".  Even the guys who were less high on Vlad than others all had him ranked quite high in their rankings. Having him at 2 was considered low. I don't know anyone that had Soto over him before 2019.  

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I'm just curious. If you were a 22 year old who was raised in a family with millions of dollars would you have a strong work ethic? It seems like Vlad Jr is at a bit of a crossroads in life where his natural talent has carried him as far as it can. Losing the weight seems like a positive sign that he's taking things seriously and wants to improve. Will that equate to production? Only time will tell. The problem with Vlad, from a fantasy perspective, is that his struggles haven't really suppressed his draft position. Until that happens it doesn't make the sense to gamble on him. If fact, I think the same could be said for every player on the Blue Jays except Gurriel. 

Edited by jmcampbe11
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2 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I'm just curious. If you were a 22 year old who was raised in a family with millions of dollars would you have a strong work ethic? It seems like Vlad Jr is at a bit of a crossroads in life where his natural talent has carried him as far as it can.

 

24 minutes ago, Chesney said:

The problem with the truly gifted is that they've never had to learn how to make an effort.

These are at best negative stereotypes and shouldn't be used to evaluate a professional athlete's effort.

 

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Pretty funny to me that people are sh***ing up this thread about Vlad's purported lack of effort when he's come into camp having a lost a bunch of weight.

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33 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Pretty funny to me that people are sh***ing up this thread about Vlad's purported lack of effort when he's come into camp having a lost a bunch of weight.

Staying away from the buffet is a minimum expectation for a professional athlete.  Spinning it as some huge positive is kind of like a parent wanting praise for feeding their kids every day ... bro, that's what you're supposed to do.  

**All of this being said, I think Vlad will have a long and productive career as a major leaguer, but the range of possible outcomes is not only immense, it will ultimately be determined not by the size of his launch angles but by the size of his heart.  

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13 hours ago, mevins31 said:

This is an important point. As my friends says “there just no struggle in his eyes.” And that perhaps is something you can’t measure 

am i missing something or didnt dude come into camp dropping 40 lbs?  did i make this up?

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11 minutes ago, herschel said:

am i missing something or didnt dude come into camp dropping 40 lbs?  did i make this up?

not missing anything, just a vlad hate circle jerk.

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58 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Staying away from the buffet is a minimum expectation for a professional athlete.  Spinning it as some huge positive is kind of like a parent wanting praise for feeding their kids every day ... bro, that's what you're supposed to do.  

 

I don't think you are wrong in this, but I'm not here to give our participation trophies. It's about what you think will happen in the future and what actually does happen.  It's not so much about spinning it as a positive as it is, what do you think happens with this new information. 

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49 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

not missing anything, just a vlad hate circle jerk.

I am a known Vlad hater but even I am scooping up some shares this year. I want some pieces of this offense, especially if they get to play some home games at that little league park in Florida.

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