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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook


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Yeah I think he will be part of the spoiled kids in baseball that don’t amount to much like Cal Ripken Jr, Ken Griffey Jr, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds...

Two months ago you wrote "he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground" which is exactly the type of insinuation of which you speak.  

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3 hours ago, Overlord said:

Staying away from the buffet is a minimum expectation for a professional athlete.  Spinning it as some huge positive is kind of like a parent wanting praise for feeding their kids every day ... bro, that's what you're supposed to do.  

**All of this being said, I think Vlad will have a long and productive career as a major leaguer, but the range of possible outcomes is not only immense, it will ultimately be determined not by the size of his launch angles but by the size of his heart.  

Ya see here is the issue he had last year. Vlad thought everyone was saying “lunch angle”. Honest mistake really. Hopefully this will serve as a nice palate cleanser. 
 

 

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20 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Thankfully there’s a long history of tracking eye struggle as an indicator of bust potential. Nobody can see what’s in someone’s eyes. I swear, this is the one guy people always have something stuck in their craw for. The guy gets accused of being fat and lazy...and then loses 40+ pounds in one offseason and he’s still a loser who couldn’t possibly figure out how to elevate a baseball despite doing it like 50 times in a row one night during the home run derby. He’s the son of one of the game’s all time greats. I wonder if the launch angle topic has occurred to them in his training - or if only the folks on Rotoworld’s fantasy message forum have that figured out. Man, the time and effort people put into hating on this guy is unprecedented. 

He is actually easily one of my favorite players for multiple reasons. My friend works for the blue jays and said he really likes him but he has a sense of entitlement if you want to know the truth and that’s as far as I’ll go. 
 

I probably own about $10,000 worth of his cards which is a secondary reason I hope he goes off. But objectively I won’t lie, he’s not a kid who played his way off an island, he is the son of a big leaguer and I don’t know if the hunger is there or not. But he’s got my support because he can popularize the game in three countries and be great for the sport. 

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10 hours ago, herschel said:

am i missing something or didnt dude come into camp dropping 40 lbs?  did i make this up?

You’re correct. Did you miss this time last year when he lost weight, “got skinny” and then games happened and he was heavier? Serious question. I don’t know if anything supports my theory more, he lost a ton of weight one year ago and then in the shutdown gained it all back because of lack of discipline 

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This guy is extremely gifted. He has it all - bat speed, contact skills, power. He even had the benefit of being the son of a Hall of Famer and all of the resources that came with it. It’d be good for baseball if he met his potential. I say that even having zero shares of Vlad Jr.


The good news is that launch angle tends to increase as players age. He just needs to put in a bit of work not a ton. It’d be a bad bet that Vlad does start increasing his launch angle and HR numbers in the years to come if not this year 

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Lot of talk about Juan Soto in this thread which is interesting considering he and Vlad Jr had the same launch angle last year at 4.6.

Almost identical EV too with Vlad at 92.5 mph and Soto at 92.3 mph. 

Oh and would you look at that Vlad's GB% was just 3% higher than Soto at 54.6% vs 51.6%.

Now I'm not saying Vlad Jr is Soto or vice versa but maybe the adjustments Vlad Jr needs to make aren't quite as dramatic as we all might think. There's certainly variance involved too in the LA but he is only 22 as of yesterday. I think he has every chance to explode this season and beyond especially if he keeps the weight down.

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20 hours ago, meh2 said:

I am a known Vlad hater but even I am scooping up some shares this year. I want some pieces of this offense, especially if they get to play some home games at that little league park in Florida.

I posted this in another thread, but Dunedin is actually only a slight hitters park. Not significantly different than Buffalo or Toronto.

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11 hours ago, mevins31 said:

You’re correct. Did you miss this time last year when he lost weight, “got skinny” and then games happened and he was heavier? Serious question. I don’t know if anything supports my theory more, he lost a ton of weight one year ago and then in the shutdown gained it all back because of lack of discipline 

Not excusing it because he is a professional, but we did have a global pandemic that was tough on a lot of people and had no idea when baseball was coming back for months. It's of my opinion (and nothing more) that without the events of last year we could have seen a breakout last year 

Additionally, as disappointing as Vlad has been in two abridged seasons, his career WRC+ sits at like 108, above average and very good for his age. Basically identical to what Albies is as a hitter for his career. And that's disappointing Vlad hitter.

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4 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Lot of talk about Juan Soto in this thread which is interesting considering he and Vlad Jr had the same launch angle last year at 4.6.

Almost identical EV too with Vlad at 92.5 mph and Soto at 92.3 mph. 

Oh and would you look at that Vlad's GB% was just 3% higher than Soto at 54.6% vs 51.6%.

Now I'm not saying Vlad Jr is Soto or vice versa but maybe the adjustments Vlad Jr needs to make aren't quite as dramatic as we all might think. There's certainly variance involved too in the LA but he is only 22 as of yesterday. I think he has every chance to explode this season and beyond especially if he keeps the weight down.

Could mean something, probably nothing, but: Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a 19-degree launch angle over 12 batted balls tracked by Statcast this spring. His highest LA in any other month of his career? 9 degrees.
 

 

Ryan Bloomfield on Twitter: "Could mean something, probably nothing, but: Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a 19-degree launch angle over 12 batted balls tracked by Statcast this spring. His highest LA in any other month of his career? 9 degrees." / Twitter

 
Small sample size for sure but it appears Vlad is working on his swing.  Still developing at the major league level which can be tough with so many critics who want results yesterday.
 
 
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17 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:
Small sample size for sure but it appears Vlad is working on his swing.  Still developing at the major league level which can be tough with so many critics who want results yesterday.
 
 

It's a bad mentality. Lot of people focus on last year's results, which seems like an even worse strategy this year. As one of my fundamental rules in my signature  "What you think a player does tomorrow > what a player did yesterday."  It's easier for people just to fallback on what someone did last year because it's not subjective and easy, but it's the skill in finding  players who will improve and who played over their head last year that makes for a good fantasy baseball player.

 

I do totally get "I don't want to take him at pick 52 because he's been all hype and I rather get someone I trust more and be a year late on Vlad".  That's always fine with me.  No player is a must have, and Vlad isn't special in that.  I do object to calling him an overrated fatty who doesn't seem like he will ever put it together, I don't think those takes will age well. 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

It's a bad mentality. Lot of people focus on last year's results, which seems like an even worse strategy this year. As one of my fundamental rules in my signature  "What you think a player does tomorrow > what a player did yesterday."  It's easier for people just to fallback on what someone did last year because it's not subjective and easy, but it's the skill in finding  players who will improve and who played over their head last year that makes for a good fantasy baseball player.

 

I do totally get "I don't want to take him at pick 52 because he's been all hype and I rather get someone I trust more and be a year late on Vlad".  That's always fine with me.  No player is a must have, and Vlad isn't special in that.  I do object to calling him an overrated fatty who doesn't seem like he will ever put it together, I don't think those takes will age well. 

I don't know if anyone really thinks he's going to be a total bust and he has no chance of turning it around.  But he is going around guys like Starling Marte where it would be a big surprise if they don't post a big season, if healthy.  It wouldn't be a big surprise if Vlad improves just a little, above his past mediocrity (especially by fantasy standards).

 

I'm looking at Xander's first few years.  Another mega prospect.  And one who didn't walk around with a bag of funions strapped to his face like a feedbag.

 

It was kind of erratic before he became the money in the bank guy we know now.  Cup of coffee year and rookie year stunk. 3rd year was good only because of crazy BABIP luck that could hit almost any player (.320 average, 7HR 10 SB).  4th year was the Xander we all know and love.  Even his 5th year, he dipped back to 10 HRs and was solid, but nothing great.

 

So if you took him young as a 5 year keeper, or you just drafted him every year,  you did surprisingly poorly considering he was a top prospect who became a great player.

The weight loss coupled with the Spring destruction is making a breakout this year look more and more likely.  If he keeps hitting like this all spring, the current ADP will become more sensible. But I think I'd still prefer Marte.

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20 hours ago, mevins31 said:

He is actually easily one of my favorite players for multiple reasons. My friend works for the blue jays and said he really likes him but he has a sense of entitlement if you want to know the truth and that’s as far as I’ll go. 
 

I probably own about $10,000 worth of his cards which is a secondary reason I hope he goes off. But objectively I won’t lie, he’s not a kid who played his way off an island, he is the son of a big leaguer and I don’t know if the hunger is there or not. But he’s got my support because he can popularize the game in three countries and be great for the sport. 

 

His rookie Cards are worth money?

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52 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

His rookie Cards are worth money?

A lot. There are guys without more than 2 months at bats selling for thousands of dollars every day. Vlad has big hobby appeal!

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16 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

And one who didn't walk around with a bag of funions strapped to his face like a feedbag.

Being in shape obviously helps but these over the top comments show me that a lot of the pessimism on Vlad is not strictly about his baseball skills.

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2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Being in shape obviously helps but these over the top comments show me that a lot of the pessimism on Vlad is not strictly about his baseball skills.

oh geeeez.  🙄

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This writer made the following projections for the upcoming year in a recent Q & A with Jays fans.   

I think Vlad exceeds those floor numbers based on what we are seeing in spring training so far.  If he is committed to fitness and launch angle improvement with his hard hit rate, the potential to breakout is there this year.

 

 

Keegan Matheson covers the Blue Jays for MLB.com. Follow him on Twitter @KeeganMatheson.

 

What’s Vladdy’s 2021 slash line predictions? Ceiling. Realistic. Floor. Go.
-- Faabs89

As long as we promise to only come back to this in early October if I’m right, let’s take a crack at it. I think it’s safe to use his career averages from his age-20 and 21 seasons as a rough floor and work from there.

Floor: .265 / .335 / .445 with 25 home runs
Realistic: .275 / .345 / .475 with 30 home runs
Ceiling: .290 / .370 / .560 with 38 home runs

Vlad Jr.'s four-hit game

Mar 16, 2021

 · 

0:59

Vlad Jr.'s four-hit game

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Ceiling: .290 / .370 / .560 with 38 home runs

Gonna disagree, think his ceiling is more like Prince Fielder prime, which is

.288 / .395. / 618  / 1.013 with 50 bombs.

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7 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Gonna disagree, think his ceiling is more like Prince Fielder prime, which is

.288 / .395. / 618  / 1.013 with 50 bombs.

That's gotta be 95th percentile plus man. 

 

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Rich kids are prone to laziness and fat guys like to eat. I will happily let someone else roll the dice. I wish Junior luck though, his old man was a fav of mine.

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52 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

That's gotta be 95th percentile plus man. 

 

He did say ceiling.  I think ceiling is 90th percentile and up.

Edited by damana
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2 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Gonna disagree, think his ceiling is more like Prince Fielder prime, which is

.288 / .395. / 618  / 1.013 with 50 bombs.

The question asked was only for this season:

What’s Vladdy’s 2021 slash line predictions? Ceiling. Realistic. Floor. Go.
-- Faabs89

 

Love your optimism on prime Vladdy.    If he stays completely committed in the future,  I can see it.

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Wow, you guys are really selling him short. When I grabbed Vladito in my keeper league years ago, I said to myself: Miguel Cabrera 2.0 Yes, he will be my Cabrera replacement.

 

.348 / .442 / .636 / 1.078 with 44 HRs, arguably Cabrera's better MVP season in 2013.

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