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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

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Expecting his 2021 to be in line with the 2004 at the top. 

I like the Miggy Cabrera comp but you’re predicting just over a half season out of Vlad? Edit: 2004. Numbers are hard. That’s a solid comp/prediction. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver
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ur paying for the "fun" of it and upside. not "smart" pick but who knows. standard 12 teamers the gamble aint bad. and i also think he still would be easy to trade throughout the year even if he doesnt live up to the hype. theres always someone who thinks the breakout is right around the corner

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Agreed...I mean he is hitting missiles off unsigned guys with no movement on their pitches and he still looks heavy after losing 40+ pounds. You can’t miss here

Edited by Dr. Whom
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17 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Agreed...I mean he is hitting missiles off unsigned guys with no movement on their pitches and he still looks heavy after losing 40+ pounds. You can’t miss here

 

What's your angle, man? Seems like you frequent coming in here just to be sarcastic towards others' enthusiasm over Guerrero's potential this upcoming season. Either you get excited over spitting on other's excitement or you're just bitter over not having him rostered. Or both. Either way, it seems kind of strange though...

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19 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

ur paying for the "fun" of it and upside. not "smart" pick but who knows. standard 12 teamers the gamble aint bad. and i also think he still would be easy to trade throughout the year even if he doesnt live up to the hype. theres always someone who thinks the breakout is right around the corner

Several projection systems already see Vlad Guerrero Jr. as a .295/25/90 talent RIGHT NOW (at age 22) and these projection systems use a lot of regression which makes them conservative by nature.

I think Vlad Jr. can roll out of bed right now and produce a .290 average with mid 20 HR power: that may not sound exciting, but it's this solid floor combined with the upside/youth that has people justifying paying his increasing cost.

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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26 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Several projection systems already see Vlad Guerrero Jr. as a .295/25/90 talent RIGHT NOW (at age 22) and these projection systems use a lot of regression which makes them conservative by nature.

I think Vlad Jr. can roll out of bed right now and produce a .290 average with mid 20 HR power: that may not sound exciting, but it's this solid floor combined with the upside/youth that has people justifying paying his increasing cost.

id say the majority of players in the 3rd rd have high floors. vlad has only made it out of the 3rd in one draft ive been in and i passed on him for tucker/robert. consensus projections have him at 20 buck player just inside top 50 overall getting drafted in the 3rd in all the leagues i have seen. i like him this year and hopefully i can get him in my auction tonight will be my #1 nomination.  see how that goes ha

 

edit- and considering vlad hasnt done it i dont know if you can say hes a 295 mid 20's floor player even if projections and other metrics like vlad. would look pretty silly again to pass on areando and bregamn and they go back to their 2019 self. even though they have there owns set of problems.

Edited by colepenhagen
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27 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

id say the majority of players in the 3rd rd have high floors. vlad has only made it out of the 3rd in one draft ive been in and i passed on him for tucker/robert. consensus projections have him at 20 buck player just inside top 50 overall getting drafted in the 3rd in all the leagues i have seen. i like him this year and hopefully i can get him in my auction tonight will be my #1 nomination.  see how that goes ha

 

edit- and considering vlad hasnt done it i dont know if you can say hes a 295 mid 20's floor player even if projections and other metrics like vlad. would look pretty silly again to pass on areando and bregamn and they go back to their 2019 self. even though they have there owns set of problems.

Fair critique in your edit. 

No matter how good the age-related-performance is -- nor how good the peripherals are -- you can't say a guy can "roll out of bed and do it" until he actually does it.

On another note entirely: anybody think Vlad Jr. has some sneaky SB upside? 

Vlad Sr. was a freak athlete and was able to swipe double digit bases throughout his career despite having a large/heavy/stocky body type.

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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23 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

He's going for way higher than his ADP in every draft (real or mock) I've been in this year. 

I'm willing to be a buyer, but not at the cost of a proven superstar in his place.

He went in the early 4th in a highly competitive standard 5x5 12 team roto league im in. 

Here's the players drafted after him in that same round: 

  • Corbin Burnes, SP
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B
  • Kenta Maeda, SP
  • Starling Marte, OF
  • Jose Abreu, 1B
  • Rafael Devers, 3B
  • Whit Merrifield, 2B
  • Blake Snell, SP
  • Kyle Tucker, OF
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8 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

He went in the early 4th in a highly competitive standard 5x5 12 team roto league im in. 

Here's the players drafted after him in that same round: 

  • Corbin Burnes, SP
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B
  • Kenta Maeda, SP
  • Starling Marte, OF
  • Jose Abreu, 1B
  • Rafael Devers, 3B
  • Whit Merrifield, 2B
  • Blake Snell, SP
  • Kyle Tucker, OF

 

Come on dude. There is no draft out there where any of those players are going after Vlad. Only possible one is Tucker. 

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9 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

He went in the early 4th in a highly competitive standard 5x5 12 team roto league im in. 

Here's the players drafted after him in that same round: 

  • Corbin Burnes, SP
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B
  • Kenta Maeda, SP
  • Starling Marte, OF
  • Jose Abreu, 1B
  • Rafael Devers, 3B
  • Whit Merrifield, 2B
  • Blake Snell, SP
  • Kyle Tucker, OF


Sounds like 1 out of 10 managers in that league thinks they are smarter than everyone else

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10 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Come on dude. There is no draft out there where any of those players are going after Vlad. Only possible one is Tucker. 

His ADP is roughly equal to Maeda and higher (or lower?) than Marte & Burnes.  And Kyle Tucker actually goes before all these guys

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On 3/15/2021 at 8:26 PM, GamblorLA said:

Very possible.  But on the whole, I've found that in my shallow keeper league (not dynasty) it's not worth it to let a guy like this drag your team down for 2-3 years, hoping to get a short time of monster production before you have to let them go.

It was a close call between him and Voit, 

Oof.  I'll admit it looks like I may have chosen poorly.

But I will add one more thing. People are saying, "baseball is hard and you can't expect him to be great right away," in order to justify his poor performance so far. And then saying that he should be drafted at the same price as proven stars because he will 100% become a star this year.

Is baseball hard or easy?

Mentioned how long it took Xander and Cole to put it all together.

Was thinking of some others. Carlos Correa, A-Rod 2.0.  Still waiting. This could be Vlad.  Good MLB hitter.  So so fantasy.

Springer was older, but a yuge fantasy prospect. He actually did go off in year 3 and has been a beast ever since.

Corey Seager was outstanding right away, then stunk for a couple seasons, now he's back.

 So... who knows?  Not me.  I sort of want to get 1 share just in case, but ultimately I'll always take someone who's proven they can.

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2 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

Oof.  I'll admit it looks like I may have chosen poorly.

But I will add one more thing. People are saying, "baseball is hard and you can't expect him to be great right away," in order to justify his poor performance so far. And then saying that he should be drafted at the same price as proven stars because he will 100% become a star this year.

Is baseball hard or easy?

Mentioned how long it took Xander and Cole to put it all together.

Was thinking of some others. Carlos Correa, A-Rod 2.0.  Still waiting. This could be Vlad.  Good MLB hitter.  So so fantasy.

Springer was older, but a yuge fantasy prospect. He actually did go off in year 3 and has been a beast ever since.

Corey Seager was outstanding right away, then stunk for a couple seasons, now he's back.

 So... who knows?  Not me.  I sort of want to get 1 share just in case, but ultimately I'll always take someone who's proven they can.

I'm with you. Was heading into year three and ended things in a favorable bench coach manner.

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3 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Oof.  I'll admit it looks like I may have chosen poorly.

But I will add one more thing. People are saying, "baseball is hard and you can't expect him to be great right away," in order to justify his poor performance so far. And then saying that he should be drafted at the same price as proven stars because he will 100% become a star this year.

Is baseball hard or easy?

Mentioned how long it took Xander and Cole to put it all together.

Was thinking of some others. Carlos Correa, A-Rod 2.0.  Still waiting. This could be Vlad.  Good MLB hitter.  So so fantasy.

Springer was older, but a yuge fantasy prospect. He actually did go off in year 3 and has been a beast ever since.

Corey Seager was outstanding right away, then stunk for a couple seasons, now he's back.

 So... who knows?  Not me.  I sort of want to get 1 share just in case, but ultimately I'll always take someone who's proven they can.

Most players (on aggregate) get better with age (see studies done on the MLB age curve). This doesn't mean Guerrero will magically get better, but based on the odds he's likely to be a better baseball player at age 22 than at age 19 and at age 19 he was already murdering the upper levels of the minors.

What people don't understand is that based on Vlad Jr's unique statistical age related profile (the stats he's accumulated throughout the last 4 years of his pro career) the projection systems already see him as a player who will produce anywhere from 20-40% above major league average with the bat.

What this suggest is that Vlad Jr. owners get to enjoy the potential benefits of his upside while still getting the safety from a reasonably high floor.

Projection systems use a lot of regression to the mean, so they are terrible at projecting breakouts, but they do give you an educated guess on what a player is capable of producing -- based on his career track record -- RIGHT NOW.

DISCLAIMER: I am a Vlad Guerrero Jr. owner and my opinion may be biased as such.

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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49 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

It’s seems that vladdy will be batting 5th, behind springer, bichette, semien, and hernandez.

Will that hurt his chance of getting 100 Runs/Rbi?

Sandwich him in between those 4 and bjggio, Lourdes and tellez and I don't think it'll be a huge issue.

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1 hour ago, Simsanityy179 said:

It’s seems that vladdy will be batting 5th, behind springer, bichette, semien, and hernandez.

Will that hurt his chance of getting 100 Runs/Rbi?

Honestly the lineup is so deep it probably won't even matter. 100 Rs might be a stretch but 100 RBIs seems more likely.

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13 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

 So... who knows?  Not me.  I sort of want to get 1 share just in case, but ultimately I'll always take someone who's proven they can.

This is why I reached for him end of the third round. I want a share and in keeper leagues you have to pay up!

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2 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

It’s seems that vladdy will be batting 5th, behind springer, bichette, semien, and hernandez.

Will that hurt his chance of getting 100 Runs/Rbi?

He will wind up moving up to either 3rd of 4th. I have a feeling Semien or Hernandez is going to have a down year, maybe both. I hope it's not Teoscar because I'm a share holder.

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