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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 Outlook


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1 minute ago, mevins31 said:

Spin if you want. He’s stopped hitting. Yes he had a game he had 3 hits. Count it or take it away. He’s going back to... vlad he was 

wut...this is nonsense. He's still hitting the ball super hard. He's got an OPS in the 900s and an avg over 300 with 8 dingers.

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Two months ago you wrote "he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground" which is exactly the type of insinuation of which you speak.  

Yeah I think he will be part of the spoiled kids in baseball that don’t amount to much like Cal Ripken Jr, Ken Griffey Jr, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds...

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5 minutes ago, FearTheHawk said:

wut...this is nonsense. He's still hitting the ball super hard. He's got an OPS in the 900s and an avg over 300 with 8 dingers.

Look at May though. He’s collapsing. 

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3 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Look at May though. He’s collapsing. 

lol. I question your definition of "collapse" it's been less than 2 weeks. This is why most people are bad at fantasy baseball

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3 hours ago, FearTheHawk said:

lol. I question your definition of "collapse" it's been less than 2 weeks. This is why most people are bad at fantasy baseball

No one is right and no one is wrong yet. The jury is out.

You see a breakout year. I see a good April. By the end of the year, there will be a conclusion. But the jury is out. He had a good April. He’s had a bad May. Victory laps were premature. I would love to be wrong. Have him in my most important league 

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On 3/15/2021 at 3:53 PM, mevins31 said:

Great post. It’s exciting to think Vlad is a superstar but honestly he’s just a fat exciting name who hits the ball on the ground and has an exciting name. He’s not Jesse James, in fact he isn’t even the guy who shot Jesse James yet

 

12 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Have him in my most important league 

 

Got it. So either "I was right" or "I win". Seems very legit. Reminds me of the guy in Tucker thread berating him every day until recently. 

 

 Seems like Vlad is good. I think  He hit .350 in April, that's not sustainable by anyone. He's still hitting the ball very hard. Barreled an out today and another out that went over 115 MPH.  Yes, his fantasy stats have not been great in May, numbers don't lie, but also think he'll be just fine.

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8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

He hit .350 in April, that's not sustainable by anyone.

Why not?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Why not?

I mean, a few folks have done it, but it's a grand total of 25-30 in the modern era (post integration) of baseball:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_batting_champions

Considering how seldom it has happened in 70+ years, I wouldn't ever bet on ANY player eclipsing .350 in a season.  

Based on my cursory impression of Vlad, I would expect him to consistently bat .300-.333 in his prime.

Edited by Overlord
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4 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Look at May though. He’s collapsing. 

More like his stat line is normalizing. He wasn't gonna hit .370 all season long lmao. Still looking like he's settling into the .300/.400/.550 hitter with 30+ HR that most envisioned him blossoming into

 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

came with a 356 babip. Batting average is down all over the place too. I think Vlad is good, but I don't think anyone is .350 BA good.  

The part I took issue with is that you said you "don't think anyone is .350 BA good." It's not that hard to imagine someone hitting .350 or better for a full season. Its not something outside the realm of possibility in the modern game like 100 SB or 30 Wins would be.

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27 minutes ago, cs3 said:

The part I took issue with is that you said you "don't think anyone is .350 BA good." It's not that hard to imagine someone hitting .350 or better for a full season. Its not something outside the realm of possibility in the modern game like 100 SB or 30 Wins would be.

I know it can be done and has been done, butI would never project anyone for a 350 average, even if they did it two years in a row. It was my opinion that Vlad's batting average would come down because I confidently project him not to hit 350 ROS. 

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12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I know it can be done and has been done, butI would never project anyone for a 350 average, even if they did it two years in a row. It was my opinion that Vlad's batting average would come down because I confidently project him not to hit 350 ROS. 

Right, I agree

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He could easily still go .275/25 .850 OPS or .810

I don’t think at 22 anyone will say he isn’t “good” as it’s clear he is a good hitter, good not being proven great or generational yet. I think some prematurely acting like he is one of the best in the game are taking a victory lap too early. His May numbers and under the hood are going the wrong direction 

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3 hours ago, mevins31 said:

He could easily still go .275/25 .850 OPS or .810

I don’t think at 22 anyone will say he isn’t “good” as it’s clear he is a good hitter, good not being proven great or generational yet. I think some prematurely acting like he is one of the best in the game are taking a victory lap too early. His May numbers and under the hood are going the wrong direction 

fantasy owners are treating him like a top 20 player. cant fault them.

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6 hours ago, mevins31 said:

He could easily still go .275/25 .850 OPS or .810

Are you saying he could do that over the rest of the season, or you think can easily finish with that line for the entire year?

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

fantasy owners are treating him like a top 20 player. cant fault them.

What is he the last 14 days by chance 

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49 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Are you saying he could do that over the rest of the season, or you think can easily finish with that line for the entire year?

I think those could be his final numbers still, actually pretty easily. 

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