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Gleyber Torres 2021 Outlook


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Gleyber had a disappointing season in 2020, due to injury and underperformance. His defense was not good but I'm not going to talk about whether he moves back to 2nd base or stays at SS (all unknown at this point). Many believe he would have "righted the ship" had the season been longer (super low HR/FB%). There were many negatives in his short season (more ground-balls, less Hard Contact) but one huge positive I see is his plate discipline/eye took yet another considerable step forward. His O-swing% (chasing) dropped dramatically. On those pitches outside the zone, he continues to make more contact. So he's swinging less at bad pitches, but when he does, he's making more contact, hence the continued decrease in K% (drop of 4% each year). SwStr% is also continuing to trend in the right way. He's entering his age 24 season, could this be the year he "breaks out" and becomes superstar?

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Gleyber had a disappointing season in 2020, due to injury and underperformance. His defense was not good but I'm not going to talk about whether he moves back to 2nd base or stays at SS (all unknown a

the yanks have almost certainly thought of this though and sent him to an eye doctor.  i think its standard procedure in these situations   i dont buy the "bad eyes" narrative.  tbh, the HIV

wtf....AIDS???  what makes you say that?  are their certain rumors about him?  private message me if you arent comfortable saying it publicly    edit: lol

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On 11/12/2020 at 7:50 AM, Ecofolux said:

Gleyber had a disappointing season in 2020, due to injury and underperformance. His defense was not good but I'm not going to talk about whether he moves back to 2nd base or stays at SS (all unknown at this point). Many believe he would have "righted the ship" had the season been longer (super low HR/FB%). There were many negatives in his short season (more ground-balls, less Hard Contact) but one huge positive I see is his plate discipline/eye took yet another considerable step forward. His O-swing% (chasing) dropped dramatically. On those pitches outside the zone, he continues to make more contact. So he's swinging less at bad pitches, but when he does, he's making more contact, hence the continued decrease in K% (drop of 4% each year). SwStr% is also continuing to trend in the right way. He's entering his age 24 season, could this be the year he "breaks out" and becomes superstar?

Screen Shot 2020-11-12 at 10.33.40 AM.png

As I have started to put numbers in, its different this year as I left 2019 stats on my spread then added 2020 - there are a lot of guys whose production fell, I think its pretty tough to judge off 2020, I just think in short season - slumps can kill your numbers also a lot of the peripherals you mention as well as just the fact I think to play this game you have to be 100% all in, and I just wonder how many were truly all in mentally or were some "in" but questioning how long the season would actually go, etc.  I think its gonna challenge to decipher whether a down 2020 was a decline or just the outlier, but in the case of a guy like Torres, or a Javy Baez I think I will bet on the talent.  

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Don't look now but Torres is currently being drafted at NFC #68, which, in light of @Ecofolux's OP makes him a criminal steal.  I admit I had not paid attention to his plate discipline, but his walk rate jumped from 7.9% in 2019 to 13.8% in 2020, and his K% fell from 21.4% to 17.5%.  Looks like he suffered in 2020 from a 7.1% HR/FB and a barrel rate two thirds lower than the previous two seasons.  You have to think those normalize and, coupled with his better eye and decision making, he should handsomely outperform his ADP.

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On 12/11/2020 at 2:36 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

Don't look now but Torres is currently being drafted at NFC #68, which, in light of @Ecofolux's OP makes him a criminal steal.  I admit I had not paid attention to his plate discipline, but his walk rate jumped from 7.9% in 2019 to 13.8% in 2020, and his K% fell from 21.4% to 17.5%.  Looks like he suffered in 2020 from a 7.1% HR/FB and a barrel rate two thirds lower than the previous two seasons.  You have to think those normalize and, coupled with his better eye and decision making, he should handsomely outperform his ADP.

Did he change his swing at all from 2019 to 2020? 

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13 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Not going so smoothly defensively. If his defense continues like this, I could see a move back to second or a trade.

Which given the depth of 2nd would be pretty great imo.

Where would they put lemahiu then? Could he slide into 3rd when voit returns?

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1 hour ago, Picard56 said:

Where would they put lemahiu then? Could he slide into 3rd when voit returns?

1st, 3rd or both. I'm not really sure but it seems like the Yankees are going to have to get creative one way or another.

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3 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

1st, 3rd or both. I'm not really sure but it seems like the Yankees are going to have to get creative one way or another.

They could trade him back to my Cubs for pennies on the dollar 😃. I am kidding though, a man can dream.

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Would love to see him get going today. If he keeps up the slow start he could be a very good buy low even after he was already being underrated in drafts. Some people may feel at this point 2020 was a sign of things to come but I’m not buying that. 

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3 hours ago, kaesr said:

Hopefully the day will be coming soon that I won't regret drafting this guy.

Still too early to panic. The Yanks overall have been crummy. He's been getting his walks at least, hopefully the hits will start coming.

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Looks like he may be a product of the juiced ball in 2019. Not to mention the lionshare of his stats compiled that season were against arguably the worst pitching staff of all time (Baltimore). I've never been as high on him as some because of his lack of speed/defense (he's just not a good athlete) but I thought the bat would at least keep afloat for a few years.

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5 hours ago, absknicks said:

Looks like he may be a product of the juiced ball in 2019. Not to mention the lionshare of his stats compiled that season were against arguably the worst pitching staff of all time (Baltimore). I've never been as high on him as some because of his lack of speed/defense (he's just not a good athlete) but I thought the bat would at least keep afloat for a few years.

Or the entire Yankees line up is struggling making everyone an easier out. If they start getting hot the line up protection will sky rocket. If he still sucks you may be right.

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7 hours ago, absknicks said:

Looks like he may be a product of the juiced ball in 2019. Not to mention the lionshare of his stats compiled that season were against arguably the worst pitching staff of all time (Baltimore). I've never been as high on him as some because of his lack of speed/defense (he's just not a good athlete) but I thought the bat would at least keep afloat for a few years.

I looked into this. 

13 of Gleyber's 38 HR that year came against Baltimore. Obviously not "the lionshare" since the lion's share means the largest part of something. There's also an argument to be made that Gleyber shouldn't be penalized for beating up on a bad pitching staff because performance against them is actually what you should expect from a talented player. I'd be more concerned if he didn't beat up on a bad staff. And for any notion that he just got lucky against Baltimore, I'm not aware of any reason why Baltimore's pitching staff was uniquely suited for Gleyber to exploit.

Also, according to statcast Gleyber had 41 expected HR in 2019. Looking at expected home runs by park showed a median expected HR of 33.

 

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4 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I looked into this. 

13 of Gleyber's 38 HR that year came against Baltimore. Obviously not "the lionshare" since the lion's share means the largest part of something. There's also an argument to be made that Gleyber shouldn't be penalized for beating up on a bad pitching staff because performance against them is actually what you should expect from a talented player. I'd be more concerned if he didn't beat up on a bad staff. And for any notion that he just got lucky against Baltimore, I'm not aware of any reason why Baltimore's pitching staff was uniquely suited for Gleyber to exploit.

Also, according to statcast Gleyber had 41 expected HR in 2019. Looking at expected home runs by park showed a median expected HR of 33.

 

Sooo I think what you're saying is owners should stay put, he's in hid mid-20s, and already is an elite fantasy producing middle infeider.

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5 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I looked into this. 

13 of Gleyber's 38 HR that year came against Baltimore. Obviously not "the lionshare" since the lion's share means the largest part of something. There's also an argument to be made that Gleyber shouldn't be penalized for beating up on a bad pitching staff because performance against them is actually what you should expect from a talented player. I'd be more concerned if he didn't beat up on a bad staff. And for any notion that he just got lucky against Baltimore, I'm not aware of any reason why Baltimore's pitching staff was uniquely suited for Gleyber to exploit.

Also, according to statcast Gleyber had 41 expected HR in 2019. Looking at expected home runs by park showed a median expected HR of 33.

 

Yanks are built to beat up on bad pitching and have had issues with good pitching over the past few years.  The numbers against the O's are not all that surprising.  Torres has stopped going the other way and is trying to hit a 500 ft HR every AB...it is the basis of his struggles imo along with just being a lousy defensive SS.

Edited by secretagentman
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1 minute ago, secretagentman said:

Yanks are built to beat up on bad pitching and have had issues with good pitching over the past few years.  The numbers against the O's are not all that surprising.  Torres has stopped goin gthe other way and is trying o hit a 500 ft HR every AB...if is the basis of his struggles imo along with just being a lousy defensive SS.

His Oppo% is actually 47.2%. His other seasons are 25.1%, 23.6%, 26.9%.

No disagreement on the SS struggles but seems to be more throwing related than actual fielding so hopefully it's fixable.

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40 minutes ago, mrfrood said:

I have not had Torres since his rookie year, but I do not recall him walking as much as he had. 

I think that was something he started doing last year. last week his avg was garbage and still had a 360 obp

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9 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

I think that was something he started doing last year. last week his avg was garbage and still had a 360 obp

I think that has to be a good sign that he can turn things around for the better if he is recognizing the strike zone better. I think I recall that last year he started playing better towards the end of the year. He could be a good buy low candidate, especially since he has hit 4th or 5th the majority of the year so far. 

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22 hours ago, mrfrood said:

I think that has to be a good sign that he can turn things around for the better if he is recognizing the strike zone better. I think I recall that last year he started playing better towards the end of the year. He could be a good buy low candidate, especially since he has hit 4th or 5th the majority of the year so far. 

He’s one of the guys I’d buy low on for that reason if I didn’t already own him. Seeing the strike zone is a good sign of things to come and, though this season is a small sample size, it’s something he’s been working on since entering the 2020 season. If he can maintain this walk rate I have a feeling he’s going to rake this summer as the temperatures increase and weather gets better. 

Edited by BostonCajun
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