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James Harden 2020-2021 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, crocp said:

 

What will Luka lead you to in H2H 9 cat? You expect a jump from a 2nd round player to a top 2 guy in the whole league? Not a chance...

Just like Giannis, too many holes in his game (bad ft% on high volume, TO high, low steals and no blocks) to ever be a top 2 or 3 guy in 9 cat.

Many analysts project Luka to become the league's best player soon, and while that doesn't equate to being #1 in fantasy, he's a generational talent and we likely haven't seen the peak of his counting stats. The stocks may never be elite, but as a sophomore he upped his percentages from 42.7 / 71.3 to 46.3 / 75.8. You can do the math about where a similar improvement (as difficult as it may be to replicate) would land him -- if he becomes a 50/80 guy averaging 30/10/10 without missing games, that's absolutely top 2, and with an IQ like his it would be silly to assume he's done growing at 21.

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This thread is crazy. It's James Harden. Trade for Zach Lavine? What in the world...

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15 minutes ago, crocp said:

 

What will Luka lead you to in H2H 9 cat? You expect a jump from a 2nd round player to a top 2 guy in the whole league? Not a chance...

Just like Giannis, too many holes in his game (bad ft% on high volume, TO high, low steals and no blocks) to ever be a top 2 or 3 guy in 9 cat.

The difference with Harden, is he is ELITE in points, 3's and FT's which is why he was ranked top 2, 3 years in a row now. 

 

Edit: I am not arguing that he cant be a top 2 or 3 guy in the NBA this year...he def can and might...I mean for fantasy and specifically 9 cat.

Giannis and Luka aren't entitled brats and dont load manage that in itself is enough to take them top 3 imo. I got Giannis at 4 this year and I am very happy. I think his free throw % goes up 

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Scary news, not worth 1st pick for sure. Davis is not that far behind, and there is less risk there. After that, it's a tough decision. Is it worth to take Harden before Towns, Lillard, Doncic?  I am leaning towards avoiding any risk in the first round, so I'll probably not pick Harden unless he falls lower than expected. 

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2 minutes ago, AomineDaiki05 said:

Scary news, not worth 1st pick for sure. Davis is not that far behind, and there is less risk there. After that, it's a tough decision. Is it worth to take Harden before Towns, Lillard, Doncic?  I am leaning towards avoiding any risk in the first round, so I'll probably not pick Harden unless he falls lower than expected. 

 

I'm in a points league and would gladly take Doncic or Giannis over Harden.

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15 minutes ago, AomineDaiki05 said:

Scary news, not worth 1st pick for sure. Davis is not that far behind, and there is less risk there. After that, it's a tough decision. Is it worth to take Harden before Towns, Lillard, Doncic?  I am leaning towards avoiding any risk in the first round, so I'll probably not pick Harden unless he falls lower than expected. 

I would not take Towns over Harden no matter the drama. Towns head is in a bad place he could implode at any time 

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4 minutes ago, DonutGiveUp said:

I would not take Towns over Harden no matter the drama. Towns head is in a bad place he could implode at any time 

And Harden doesn’t want to be in Houston, and doesn’t want to play with John Wall, so they are both equally in a bad place.

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46 minutes ago, QingJames said:

 

He also fell to #5 in my draft. I had #3 and was seriously considering him but ultimately went with AD because I fear a Brooklyn trade is in the mix. Might ultimately regret that at the end of the day, we'll see.


That’s exactly what I did with the 3rd pick as well.  He went 5th after Luke, ABC, AD and KAT.  I’m happy with my pick even if Beard remains top dog.

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Have the 4th pick in my primary money league and would be ecstatic if Harden fell to me. His averages may or may not dip depending on what lineup he ends up in, but his totals will always be elite because he simply doesn’t miss games

To me Harden’s absolute floor —regardless of situation — is something like:

 

86% FT on 10 attempts 

4.0 3PM

6.5 REB

6.0 AST

1.7 STL

0.5 BLK

27.0 PTS

 

These are the 7 cats he can help you with, 4 of them (FT%, 3PM, STL, PTS) he’s outright elite in and another (AST) he’s very impactful. His FG% and TO will always be negatives but if you’re expecting his on-ball dominance to decline then you’d figure FG% and TO would improve 

 

tl/dr: I have complete faith in Harden as a fantasy workhorse who will never leave you regretting him. He’s been the safest top 5 pick in fantasy for like 8 straight seasons now and the surest top 3 for the last 5. He is what he is 

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32 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

And Harden doesn’t want to be in Houston, and doesn’t want to play with John Wall, so they are both equally in a bad place.

If he wanted out he wouldn't have showed up

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4 minutes ago, Quazza said:

Playing today and has apparently "vowed to remain professional while seeking trade " 

 

Best case scenario - he doesn't go 100% AD on us 

AD just had a year left before his player option so the Pelicans had to trade him the next summer. Which meant they couldn't afford him to get injured. So no back to backs low minutes etc.

Harden has 2 years left so it's a bit different. I don't think there is risk of same thing happening. Harden also likes his numbers so he would like another MVP like year.

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1 hour ago, mattshhh said:

Many analysts project Luka to become the league's best player soon, and while that doesn't equate to being #1 in fantasy, he's a generational talent and we likely haven't seen the peak of his counting stats. The stocks may never be elite, but as a sophomore he upped his percentages from 42.7 / 71.3 to 46.3 / 75.8. You can do the math about where a similar improvement (as difficult as it may be to replicate) would land him -- if he becomes a 50/80 guy averaging 30/10/10 without missing games, that's absolutely top 2, and with an IQ like his it would be silly to assume he's done growing at 21.

So basically luka is being drafted at his absolute ceiling, he would need to average 30/10/10 on 50/80% shooting AND 1.5 steals to become a top 3 player. 
 

I think it’s stupid to draft him over kat or curry, who have both been top 5 players for multiple seasons.

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14 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

So basically luka is being drafted at his absolute ceiling, he would need to average 30/10/10 on 50/80% shooting AND 1.5 steals to become a top 3 player. 
 

I think it’s stupid to draft him over kat or curry, who have both been top 5 players for multiple seasons.

Everyone's being drafted at their ceiling if they're being drafted 1 or 2. The case can be made Doncic has the fewest health concerns and highest upside among first rounders moving forward, so it isn't outrageous taking the rising star over an established vet who's more likely to take a step back than forward. I wound up with AD who's more trustworthy on a per-minute basis but less trustworthy as a season-long fantasy anchor.

And those numbers I listed aren't Doncic's ceiling - I only upped his percentages. If he replicated last year's improvements to counting stats as well, you get 36 / 11 / 11.5 and a likely fantasy mvp. Not what i expect but that's closer to his "absolute ceiling".

 

Getting back on track, Harden's a safe #1 in a vacuum but how often does the #1 pick in fantasy get traded during the season? It's a heck of a malleable situation to build a team around

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