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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2020-2021 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, Stefan said:

 

Maaaan 6.5 reb and 4.0 as ?!? Whaat ? He'll be on a triple-double watch every single night. 

 

Lofty expectations. Diallo, Dort, Bazley and Horford.

Those are the guys he's going to be passing the ball to. Unproven shooters (aside from Horford).

I will correct my projection from 4.0 to maybe 5 or 6....but guns blazing 10 APG....I don't know about that...

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So, I decided to dig deeper and took a took at every player from 2018-19 to 2019-20, to see how guards were affected by a big increase in usage. I filtered out all big men, players who played less tha

I don't understand your list. I don't know how you can just write off SGA when there's several players you just mentioned that are even more questionable as top 50's. JJJ - This man is still reco

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8 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

 

Lofty expectations. Diallo, Dort, Bazley and Horford.

Those are the guys he's going to be passing the ball to. Unproven shooters (aside from Horford).

I will correct my projection from 4.0 to maybe 5 or 6....but guns blazing 10 APG....I don't know about that...

5 or 6 is more like it :) 

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I honestly wouldn't even be surprised if he did average 6-7 assists. Dude is going to get all the attention from opposing defenses. With the amount of playing time and usage he's getting, he can probably get 5 assists without even trying.

Edited by sharkpotato
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22 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

So, I decided to dig deeper and took a took at every player from 2018-19 to 2019-20, to see how guards were affected by a big increase in usage. I filtered out all big men, players who played less than 1000 minutes, and any player with a usage rate change below 5%. 9 players remained:

 

Devonte' Graham

Trae Young

Luka Doncic

Bradley Beal

Caris LeVert

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

De'Aaron Fox

Terry Rozier

Alec Burks

 

On average, their usage rates increased from 23.2% to 29.0%. Their 3-point and free-throw frequency increased by 4.4% and 5.6% respectively. Their FG% increased from 42.4% to 43.9%, and TS% increased from 52.8% to 56.1%. Their AST rate increased from 25.2% to 29.9%, and their TO rate decreased from 12.9% to 12.8%.

So what are we talking about here? Where does this efficiency-decline narrative come from? Do we watch high-volume players shoot poorly from time to time and automatically blame the efficiency on volume? Are we falling victim to anecdotal fallacies?

43.9% FG in and of itself is not very good. With high volume, it will certainly hurt fantasy teams. But I think this number is more indicative of the players themselves than it is the volume of shots. Devonte' Graham is a 37.5% career shooter over 2 NBA seasons, after shooting below 40% on his final 500 shots at Kansas (4 year starter). Terry Rozier is a 39.4% career shooter over 5 NBA seasons, after shooting 40.8% over 2 years at Louisville. Alec Burks is a 42.2% career shooter over 9 NBA seasons. Trae Young is a 42.8% career shooter over 2 NBA seasons, after shooting 42.2% in his one year at Oklahoma. Caris LeVert is a 43.3% career shooter over 4 NBA seasons, after shooting 43.4% over 4 years at Michigan.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a 47.3% career shooter over 2 NBA seasons, after shooting 48.5% in his one year at Kansas. This guy is different.

But I suppose time will tell if Shai can keep it up. It's certainly possible he takes a step back (ala Bradley Beal in 2019-20: 47.5% down to 45.5%), but he's still a young and improving player who shot 47.6% from the field as a 20-year old, 47.1% as a 21-year old, while turning over the ball less than 3x per 100 possessions. At 6'5, with a 6'11 wingspan, he has a size advantage on nearly every guard he goes up against. He plays under control, picks his spots well, uses his length to his advantage, and is an improving long-range shooter. I anticipate more of the same going forward, with enormous stock potential. As stated above, a conservative projection for Shai looks like:

 

FG: 45% (~18 attempts)

FT: 81% (~6 attempts)

3s: 1.7

PTS: 22.7

REB: 6.5

AST: 5.5

STL: 1.4

BLK: 0.6

TO: 3.3

 

That's good for 3rd/4th round value. Nice numbers from a young guy without any injury or load management issues. Shouldn't be hard to move in a trade if you decide to move on.

The reason you reach for him in drafts is because he has the upside to do so much more (~ 48%, 85%, 2.2, 27, 8, 7, 1.7, 0.8, 3). Reaching his upside in maybe 3 or 4 of those 9 categories puts him into contention for 1st round value. If he comes close to reaching all 9, you may win your league. He is my favorite target in the 3rd round.

 

PS. For those of you projecting ~40% FG and 3.5 TOs per game. Where are you pulling these numbers come from?

 

Posts like this make me so hot to just get it over with and draft him. I'm sold.

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3 hours ago, CORTEz said:

 

Lofty expectations. Diallo, Dort, Bazley and Horford.

Those are the guys he's going to be passing the ball to. Unproven shooters (aside from Horford).

I will correct my projection from 4.0 to maybe 5 or 6....but guns blazing 10 APG....I don't know about that...

Also has George Hill, Ariza, Frank Jackson who can all shoot

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Unfortunately espn flung shai's ranking up near his ceiling so someone nabbed him before my 2nd pick. Enjoy the ride owners, he was a lot of fun last season despite that situation sucking for fantasy purposes. This year will be like jumping into one of those mcdonalds playpens when you were 5

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I'm drafting in a couple of hours and Im picking #20 in 2nd and #29 in 3rd. Theres a good chance that the Harden owner (if picked first) will get Shai at 24-25 turn. I want to reach for Shai at #20, but thinking that its a bit risky and that might be his ceiling already. 

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2 hours ago, dragonballz said:

I'm drafting in a couple of hours and Im picking #20 in 2nd and #29 in 3rd. Theres a good chance that the Harden owner (if picked first) will get Shai at 24-25 turn. I want to reach for Shai at #20, but thinking that its a bit risky and that might be his ceiling already. 

Kyrie, Ja, Simmons, and Russ could be available at that 20 spot. Do not pass on them lol.

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12 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

I agree with picking all 4 ahead of SGA.

Umm...I will take SGA ahead of Simmons unless I want to punt FT or 3s(especially in roto),I like SGA all-around game more and he will have huge usage this season

Edited by kane
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3 minutes ago, kane said:

Umm...I will take SGA ahead of Simmons unless I want to punt FT or 3s(especially in roto),I like SGA all-around game more and he will have huge usage this season

I can see that.  Simmons is weak on both FT and 3s which are really important for a PG in today's NBA and in most fantasy formats.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2020-2021 Outlook
4 minutes ago, rotojoe said:

has anyone emailed Yahoo to get him PG eligibility? I am trying to but keep getting error messages (prob my work browser). He really is their starting PG, and is listed as PG on the ESPN depth chart for OKC.

 I did but to tell them folk getting together to start lobbying for PG when he’s not. Could be why they haven’t.

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4 minutes ago, kane said:

Rank outside top 100 so far,popcorn stat is good but poor FG% +high to+little stock hurts him so bad

It's not looking good at all. he's not getting steals at all. and that fg% is horrible. I don't see how it's going to improve with defences doubling him. But I hope the coaches figure something asap

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55 minutes ago, halbounih said:

It's not looking good at all. he's not getting steals at all. and that fg% is horrible. I don't see how it's going to improve with defences doubling him. But I hope the coaches figure something asap

 

Maybe since being asked to do so much on offense, it's effecting his defensive game.

Just a guess. This team as whole is pretty awful tho, I will say that. 

Edited by RunCMC
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