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Jusuf Nurkic 2020-2021 Outlook


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We all drafted Bubble Nurk and instead got Bubblebutt Nurk.  Lets use this forum as a support network.    Group hugs for all 

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I'm all in in him as long as Whiteside is out of the picture. Just did a mock draft where he was taken at the 9th round (I can't believe I missed him there). While I don't think he'll end up being picked up there, I have this suspicion that he might be had at the 5th-6th round with people forgetting his value from 2 seasons ago.

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36 minutes ago, fabrar said:

He's in for a big season. Looked really good in the bubble, been getting better every season and it seems like Whiteside is on his way out. He's a comfortable top 50 guy imo 

The way he played two years ago and the way he played in the bubble he looks like a top 30 player. The few mock drafts I’ve done people have not been sleeping on him and have actively gotten him round 5. Might have to get him round 4 if you want to play it safe on draft day.

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Fwiw I grabbed him at #36 in a dynasty draft. His roles has expanded, he's improved everywhere, looks in shape, attempting 3s, and to me is the 2nd most important player on the team (leap frogging CJ). Id feel comfortable grabbing him late 3rd. He's like the Bosnian Bam (lite)

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1 hour ago, ROTY said:

Fwiw I grabbed him at #36 in a dynasty draft. His roles has expanded, he's improved everywhere, looks in shape, attempting 3s, and to me is the 2nd most important player on the team (leap frogging CJ). Id feel comfortable grabbing him late 3rd. He's like the Bosnian Bam (lite)

Nurk actually put up considerably better overall fantasy stats than Bam in the limited games he played last season. If the MPG stay in the low 30’s, he’s got a good chance to put up top 20 #’s. Hardly anyone will be ranking or drafting him as such. Big time sleeper relative to ADP IMO.

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Have seen him go anywhere from Round 4-7 in Yahoo mocks.

Really love him and he's probably the best big man outside of the Gobert/Vucevic tier (probably is in that tier anyway) - I might have to reach Round 4, maaaaaaybe Round 3.

What he put up in that 9 game sample size is tantalizing. Top 10 in punt assist.

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I wish he showed an ability to avoid foul trouble. His career 4.8 fouls per 36 min scares the hell out of me. In limited time last year, that number jumped to 5.6 fouls - Mitchell Robinson territory. I dunno if he can break 30 mpg this year, and that's a shame. That, and his FG% could dip into the 46% range if he continues to chuck inefficient 3s (~25%).

Other than that, I love what he's done with his free throw percentage:

2014 - 2018: 61.2%

2018 pre-allstar break: 74.9%

2018 post-allstar break: 84.4%

2019 bubble: 88.6%

I'm conservatively projecting 47% FG, 78% FT, 0.5 3s, 15.5 PTS, 10 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.4 BLK, 2.5 TO - pretty nice for a 4th-5th round pick, but the foul trouble will cap his upside. Let's hope he stays healthy and his FT% does not regress!

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19 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

I wish he showed an ability to avoid foul trouble. His career 4.8 fouls per 36 min scares the hell out of me.


Hard pass for me because of this. I’m sure I will be accused of being shortsighted, but I can’t invest that high of a pick on a guy with such limited minutes-upside.

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2 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

I wish he showed an ability to avoid foul trouble. His career 4.8 fouls per 36 min scares the hell out of me. In limited time last year, that number jumped to 5.6 fouls - Mitchell Robinson territory. I dunno if he can break 30 mpg this year, and that's a shame. That, and his FG% could dip into the 46% range if he continues to chuck inefficient 3s (~25%).

Other than that, I love what he's done with his free throw percentage:

2014 - 2018: 61.2%

2018 pre-allstar break: 74.9%

2018 post-allstar break: 84.4%

2019 bubble: 88.6%

I'm conservatively projecting 47% FG, 78% FT, 0.5 3s, 15.5 PTS, 10 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.4 BLK, 2.5 TO - pretty nice for a 4th-5th round pick, but the foul trouble will cap his upside. Let's hope he stays healthy and his FT% does not regress!


Problem is he's not going in the 4th round anymore. People have caught on in mock drafts and he's going late 2nd-early 3rd, especially when people run out of bigs at the start of the 3rd round.

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1 hour ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

Yeah for us who like to actually wait closer to the season to draft, the secret is out. Every mock draft I’ve done the last 3 days he goes early third round every time.

well with Porz and JJJ out for while, you pretty much have to.

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27 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

well with Porz and JJJ out for while, you pretty much have to.

Yup basically if you ending up with like pick 8 in first round either you reach in early second or make peace that he won’t fall to you for your third pick.

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8 minutes ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

Yup basically if you ending up with like pick 8 in first round either you reach in early second or make peace that he won’t fall to you for your third pick.

I pick ninth and I just did a mock where for the first time he fell to me at pick 33 in the 3rd.  first out of 10-15 mocks maybe. 

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I'm seeing his ADP falling in mid 3rd round.  That's just too high for me, I feel like people are using his per game #s from last season's miniscule sample size during bubble seeding games and then amplifying them due to Whiteside leaving.  In 13 total bubble games (8 seeding, 5 playoffs) Nurkic posted averages of 16.3 PTS, 10.3 REB and 1.3 BLK with 3.8 AST.  Yes, Whiteside is out of the picture but Nurkic was still getting 32 MPG with Whiteside and his foul rate makes it unlikely that he increases those MPG by any substantial degree 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

I'm seeing his ADP falling in mid 3rd round.  That's just too high for me, I feel like people are using his per game #s from last season's miniscule sample size during bubble seeding games and then amplifying them due to Whiteside leaving.  In 13 total bubble games (8 seeding, 5 playoffs) Nurkic posted averages of 16.3 PTS, 10.3 REB and 1.3 BLK with 3.8 AST.  Yes, Whiteside is out of the picture but Nurkic was still getting 32 MPG with Whiteside and his foul rate makes it unlikely that he increases those MPG by any substantial degree 

 

 

Why he is not a TOP30 guy? Who then is if not Nurkic? 3rd round is not early, 2nd round is early for picking him.

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What Johnnyapplebot said. There's no way you're getting him past the 3rd round now. You'd literally need guys like MPJ, Lonzo Ball, Christian Wood, and others to be taken in rounds 2-3 for Nurk to fall in the late 3rd and onwards. And if you're in a league like that, you're basically running away with the trophy barring injuries.

 

12 hours ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

Yup basically if you ending up with like pick 8 in first round either you reach in early second or make peace that he won’t fall to you for your third pick.

 

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18 minutes ago, apatas said:

Why he is not a TOP30 guy? Who then is if not Nurkic? 3rd round is not early, 2nd round is early for picking him.

 

I do think Nurk can return top 30 value depending on your league.  But to me, that's his ceiling while his floor is still limited by foul rate and injury concerns imo.  I don't typically use top 3 round picks on guys based on their perceived ceiling

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