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Michael Porter Jr. 2020-2021 Outlook


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12 hours ago, Randomguy said:

I don’t think harris is a best case scenario.  Harris might score more next season, but MPJ is a significantly better rebounder. And also shoots near 50% FG. Then there’s the defensive stats where harris doesn’t help much, while MPJ averaged similar defensive stats to harris in half the minutes last season. I would expect MPJ to average close to 16/8 next year with 48+ FG and close to one steal one block per game. That line I would take over Harris. 

I mean look, I'll give you that IF MPJ does end up getting the minutes (which is no certainty) and stays healthy, then yes, he is certainly going to get way more stocks than Harris.  That being said, you're exaggerating the rest.

 

- FG%: Harris has been hovering around 48% the last few seasons, he's been very consistent with that with a proven track record.  We can imagine what MPJ would do in that regard, but Harris has hard stats on his resume to back it consistently.

- Rebounding: no idea where the "MPJ is a significantly better rebounder" statement you made is coming from.  Harris was close to 7 boards average last year, and 8 the year before.  Those are extremely solid rebounding numbers for a SF, and again same thing as above, we can only imagine that MPJ might reach that level of board grabbing.

- 3 pointers: Harris has been hovering right above or right below 2 three pointers made per game since 2017.  Again, that's very solid, and there's no guarantee that MPJ would match that.

- Assists: Harris has been around 3 assists per game since 2017 as well.  Again, unlikely MPJ would get there.

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Got bored and made this during halftime while watching MPJ's riveting game tonight.

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2 hours ago, sld12 said:

I mean look, I'll give you that IF MPJ does end up getting the minutes (which is no certainty) and stays healthy, then yes, he is certainly going to get way more stocks than Harris.  That being said, you're exaggerating the rest.

 

- FG%: Harris has been hovering around 48% the last few seasons, he's been very consistent with that with a proven track record.  We can imagine what MPJ would do in that regard, but Harris has hard stats on his resume to back it consistently.

- Rebounding: no idea where the "MPJ is a significantly better rebounder" statement you made is coming from.  Harris was close to 7 boards average last year, and 8 the year before.  Those are extremely solid rebounding numbers for a SF, and again same thing as above, we can only imagine that MPJ might reach that level of board grabbing.

- 3 pointers: Harris has been hovering right above or right below 2 three pointers made per game since 2017.  Again, that's very solid, and there's no guarantee that MPJ would match that.

- Assists: Harris has been around 3 assists per game since 2017 as well.  Again, unlikely MPJ would get there.

My projections for MPJ are largely based on just doubling his playing time from 14 minutes to 28 minutes. He averaged 4.7 rebounds in 14 minutes. Which would be 9.4 in 28 minutes. I think 8 was a reasonable safe number to predict. But the potential difference in stocks is where the real difference would potentially be. A .5 differential in blocks is quite high. 

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1 minute ago, Randomguy said:

My projections for MPJ are largely based on just doubling his playing time from 14 minutes to 28 minutes. He averaged 4.7 rebounds in 14 minutes. Which would be 9.4 in 28 minutes. I think 8 was a reasonable safe number to predict. But the potential difference in stocks is where the real difference would potentially be. A .5 differential in blocks is quite high. 

 

I get what you're saying, but to just assume that everything will magically double (not saying it can't, but just saying that's a lot to assume) just because he's getting double the minutes is not a wise move at all -- especially when (like I said) there are guys like Tobias that are already getting those numbers (and have been for multiple years), making them a much safer bet.

 

If MPJ doesn't pan out, the opportunity cost of not drafting a guy like Tobias is potentially huge.  Whereas the opportunity cost of MPJ panning out but drafting Tobias instead is a very small difference from my perspective.

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MPJ > Tobias Harris upside wise easily

Tobias higher floor tho

 

IF mpj gets 30ish mins who’s going to have more boards and more blocks.  The rest will be even.  
 

I took the upside of MPJ, I went punt assist so assists do t matter for me as well

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3 minutes ago, Brye said:

Nvm just watched his highlight video, if he gets 30+ mins he’s a top 20 player easily

 

His upside is tantalizing.

Oft injured Gary Harris, aging Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant gone.

Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he eventually usurped Will Barton as the #3 option. 

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i want to target because potential is so good, but feel like theres a slight possibility it'll be a headache owning based off malone/depth of nuggets depending on the price you reach for him at compared to other players you pass up on to choose him. 

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18 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

Isn't it more surprising that a vet nobody talks about still holds the role over one of the league's most exciting prospects?

MPJ time is now, and if they going to try to win it all..... they need him to produce now with heavy minutes so the chemistry 🧪 is spot on when it counts come playoff time .... Barton needs to come off the bench and be one 6th man which he’d be better suited anyways.

 

worst case MPJ starts off as the 6th man and closes games out getting about 26-28 mins but come all star break he’s going to be getting 30+ if not sooner

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5 minutes ago, Brye said:

MPJ time is now, and if they going to try to win it all..... they need him to produce now with heavy minutes so the chemistry 🧪 is spot on when it counts come playoff time .... Barton needs to come off the bench and be one 6th man which he’d be better suited anyways.

 

worst case MPJ starts off as the 6th man and closes games out getting about 26-28 mins but come all star break he’s going to be getting 30+ if not sooner

It's the very fact that they're in a position to win it all that MPJ's role is uncertain. Barton may not have the same upside but Malone doesn't have either of them on his fantasy team, so if his real life team does better with an arrangement that inconveniences owners, tough luck. Nugs were very good before he showed up and that's one of the risks in drafting him. I personally think Barton off the bench eventually makes more sense given his playmaking ability, but he worked hard to earn that spot and isn't some scrub who needs to be replaced

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25 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

It's the very fact that they're in a position to win it all that MPJ's role is uncertain. Barton may not have the same upside but Malone doesn't have either of them on his fantasy team, so if his real life team does better with an arrangement that inconveniences owners, tough luck. Nugs were very good before he showed up and that's one of the risks in drafting him. I personally think Barton off the bench eventually makes more sense given his playmaking ability, but he worked hard to earn that spot and isn't some scrub who needs to be replaced

MPJ is a walking bucket who can play defense and crash boards well above average for a SF.  The Durant comparisons are real, you don’t give 18-20 mins to a future perennial all star that’s in his 3rd year. AKA don’t piss him off cuz he won’t forget and may pull a porzigas and demand a trade.  Front office will make sure Malone plays him weather he wants too or not 

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Nobody's talking about 18-20 mins. People are complaining that he's coming off the bench or not getting as many mins as he can handle. If Malone thought he had the new Durant there wouldn't be a competition with Barton. You gotta factor in the team quality and durability concerns (it's one or the other holding him back thus far) when building your squad, not just talent and upside. I think he'll put up similar numbers on or off the bench, it's the minutes that make or break value. High risk high reward

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Eh, I drafted him in every single league (5) ... Hell, I play with a few overlapping owners in certain leagues and I've gotten MPJ every time exactly in the 5th round no matter my pick position (1, 3, 7, 9). Just strange, as most leagues are fairly competitive.  Oh well.

Yeah, I highly doubt he's only getting 18-20 minutes. I'm actually okay with Barton taking his starting spot, but MPJ needs to get at least 25-28 mpg.  Kid looks excellent with Jokic and he's proven he can ball.  No Grant and Plumlee means that MPJ should be getting a ton of PF minutes behind old man Millsap, and minutes at SF regardless of whether Barton starts.

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Want the good or the bad news first?

Bad news:

Foul trouble early, 2 fouls in 1st 4 mins and another foul when he came back in in the 2nd quarter ......


good news:

he started and he’s a monster, top 30 ROS. Elite fg% from a sf, elite 3’s , elite boards, 1-1 block and steal....... just wow 🤩 

 

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6 minutes ago, Brye said:

Want the good or the bad news first?

Bad news:

Foul trouble early, 2 fouls in 1st 4 mins and another foul when he came back in in the 2nd quarter ......


good news:

he started and he’s a monster, top 30 ROS. Elite fg% from a sf, elite 3’s , elite boards, 1-1 block and steal....... just wow 🤩 

 

jokic found him and looked for him actually on the game winning shot, rimmed out but still that shows the trust in him. 

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3 minutes ago, L3onD said:

about a month and a half to two months before he’s officially the best nuggets player after jokara

He’s already the 2nd best nugget , I watch the games live, Jokic and Porter are superstars.  

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4 minutes ago, Brye said:

He’s already the 2nd best nugget , I watch the games live, Jokic and Porter are superstars.  

he is, that was my point...i watch them too...he just has to get some more reps under his belt, learn on some of his mistakes (avoiding the inevitable contact on some of his drives and some defensive faults that are common amongst the new guys) and hes a bonafide n1-n2 option (seeing that jokara loves him and feeds him all day everyday)

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