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De'Anthony Melton 2020-2021 Outlook


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Rotoworld must be holding a group circlejerk about how their favorite got paid.    Despite putting up top 198 numbers last season, I truthfully believe he has 1st round upside, may even be a surp

fcuk Jenkins     

Melton away 🌞 🧊 💧

19 minutes ago, fabrar said:

This guy really needs to start. He's so much better than Brooks.

I wish the Grizzlies weren’t so freaking deep. I have no idea if Melton is even going to play 20 mins from one game to the next. Like if Grayson Allen comes back.

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52 minutes ago, fabrar said:

This guy really needs to start. He's so much better than Brooks.

It’s been this way since Moses wore short pants. He’s a Per-36 monster

Just never get’s consistent mins , when the team is fully healthy. 

Shocking because he does everything pretty decent + plays outstanding defense

44 minutes ago, taenggg said:

congrats to everyone who streamed him today

Oh yeah let’s go brodie !

Last minute OG + Haliburton got their IL tags. So had 2 open spots to stream 🙃

Easy call with Anderson out 

Good times.

Edited by RunCMC
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3 hours ago, rocky7st said:

Hopefully he can keep his mins up next week, he plays on the days I'm short on

Don't forget slow-mo didn't play tonight

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8 hours ago, kane said:

Don't forget slow-mo didn't play tonight

No SloMo, no Grayson Allen, and they played the Wizards. Next week JJJ might also come back. 
 

So the outlook for Melton is a little murky unless he’s convinced Jenkins that he deserves a bigger opportunity. 

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17 minutes ago, jrmintz said:

This happens to Melton every year. On a per minute basis he is gold but just gets no love from the team. 

I wish he’s traded to Orlando or Detroit where he will earn big PG minute 

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What is the reason for the coach to ef him over? His jump shot? He has been killing it from the three this season and plays great all the time. Defense, AST/TO ratio, making plays... Just a wonderful package all and all.

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58 minutes ago, csklmf said:

I wish he’s traded to Orlando or Detroit where he will earn big PG minute 

Naw his fault for resigning. He took a bargain contract to return and play for the same coach who hates him for some reason

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THE CURIOUS CASE OF DE'ANTHONY MELTON

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So... We have this kid who is everyones favorite player nobody has heard of. Hollinger has been all over him prior the season, going on the books claiming him as the best value for dollar signing during the off-season. The hindering issue has been his limited playing time during his time in Memphis. Lot has been put on his bad shooting. So whats the hold up now when he is seemingly shooting better? What do the statistics tell? Is there other underlying reasons for this? I dug deep to find the god damn answers.

I drafted "Melts" around the 11th-12th round in a 14 team re-draft points league with bench boost. I had him break out with 23-24 minutes which would make him easily worth a roster spot with the added +20 bench boost. He has been minutes monster due his ability to accumulate stats across the board. He has not cracked 20 minutes thus far in his career and is at 20.1 this season. He has been out of the rotation due covid and few injuries. He has also been benched completely once and played 3 minutes in other game. Even with the injuries on the roster he has not been able to string together more than 4 20+ minutes games. Grizzlies are 6-6 with him playing 20 minutes or more. They are 16-16 overall so him playing bigger minutes goes on par with the team record. They are also .500 when he is not playing. So no help from team wins/losses for his case.

He has been shooting THE LIGHTS OUT this season so the reason can not be his shooting. He is taking career high (by far) 3.9 threes per game and hitting marvelous .423 on those shots. Just the other night he went 6-for-11 in a stellar performance against The Wizards. His advanced shooting stats are very good too. His EFG% is third among his team, only topped by Dieng and rookie Bane. In True Shooting % he is fourth after Dieng, Bane and Allen.

Here might lie the first set of problems. They seem to be comfortable running Ja Morant with bigger bodies like Brooks and Slo-Mo who both are not as good of a shooters as Bane, Allen or now Melton. But they have size to complete Morant. Playing Brooks big minutes is mind-boggling as he is high volume chucker. But the size might be the answer as they seem to be reluctant to play Melton alongside Morant as they are both a bit fragile types.

It is obvious they have not been happy with the starting unit as lately they have gone with Bane starting and dropping Clarke to the bench. It is interesting though that they still keep Brooks and Slo-Mo there... When JJJ comes back they will most likely cement PF/C with bigger guys and after that its 6-way on two spots with Melton, Winslow, Allen, Bane, Brooks and Slo-Mo. Tillman drops from the rotation (and/or Dieng) with Clarke coming off the bench to relieve big guys.

Maybe Melton has not been as effective otherwise compared to other players on the roster? He has been better at shooting, but Allen and especially Bane have been doing good job shooting too and MIGHT pair better with Ja. Lets dig in.

Melton is Number 1 on Offensive Rating with 114.5 (very nice number). Morant is second with 113.5. Melton is Number 2 on Defensive Rating and #1 is Winslow with only 6 games played (Tim Frazier not counted). Melton has massive edge on everybody else on Net Rating. He sits at 10.3 and is followed by Winslow (5.4), Bane (5.2), Tillman (4.3) and Brooks (2.3).

It seems Memphis has a very reliable second unit and the first unit struggles. That is not surprise as they play tougher competition. The coach has been very fair with the minutes, spreading them very equally. But still Melton is mostly the guy with shortest stick, playing very limited minutes. He is consistently chosen over by the coach to give Jones, Bane, Allen the extra run with first unit. For the life in me I can not understand why. Other than maybe he and Morant are not a good pairing.

On a two-man pairing units he has +8.3 with Morant but only -2.0 with Valanciunas. His numbers with Morant are on par with the other guards on the team. He excels with Dieng and Tillman which ties him strongly to the second unit. When you look into Morants numbers his best pairing is BY FAR Melton at +8.3. He has +2 - +4.5 points raitings with other starters and he does -5.0 with Bane. Making conclusions by these numbers Morant and Melton should in fact PLAY A LOT MORE together.

On his defensive numbers he has easily the best +/- differential on the team. His defensive win shares within per 100 possesions confirm him being the best player outside 6 game Winslow yet again. Just all and all every advanced statistical category combined with line-up stuff makes him out to be a winning player in this team.

So why is he not playing? The size thing (Brooks, Slo-Mo) might explain it a bit even when the stats do not. His shooting is no longer the issue. The issue it seems is the fact that his competition is also doing well shooting (Allen, Bane). Melton is the key member on second unit and should stay that way. But everything points toward him needing to play A) more consistently B] bigger minutes and C) with Morant. I like Bane for his shooting and Winslow for his defense, but there is no way Bane, Jones, Allen, Slo-Mo and Brooks all beat him for consistent minutes. Just no way. I understand they are constructed to play a lot of guys equal minutes, but Melton has proven to deserve a shot to get those +20 minutes on a nightly basis instead of some of these other cats not getting Grizzlies over .500 at the half-way mark. As it is now, its Melton who is playing 14 minutes a night with Allen on the sidelines! When Allen gets back its Melton who gets bumped off and that is a travesty considering the body of work players have been putting in this season.

Trade deadline would be the one saving grace here if Memphis decide to make a move to thin the rotation. Either sell Melton (highly doubt it, but he might have worth with the way he has been playing and the contract he signed) or clear the roster a bit for some future assets or a upgrade on a position.

MELTS all the way! I am holding strongly while waiting this situation to clear out. With those underlying stats I'm definitely not dropping the guy at this moment. 

Edited by JormaJormala
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On 3/11/2021 at 7:45 AM, coconutman_ said:

Dropped for Bane.

lol at this

 

but tonight he did get more mins. 23. and he was a +13, highest on the team, in a game they lost by 1.

 

coach has gotta be realizing some things soon or he's actually pathetic

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3/5 on three pointers, had 6 assists and Jones only played 14 minutes so he seems to have him beat. +13 as said up above, easily the best on the team. Just being efficient AND best player on the floor. Period. Too bad they lost.

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+14 on 19 minutes as the team lost. Morant was +6, Brooks +1 and other players had minus. Jenkins, DUDE!!! Wake up man.

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6 minutes ago, JormaJormala said:

+14 on 19 minutes as the team lost. Morant was +6, Brooks +1 and other players had minus. Jenkins, DUDE!!! Wake up man.

 

came here to say the same. back to back games now. he needs 25mpg at minimum. this is ridiculous tbh, they either are intentionally trying to throw games or they're stupid. there's no in between

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