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Fred VanVleet 2020-2021 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, granvillemal said:

Build right now is i got cp3 and booker. so its between sabonis and fvv for me. 

FVV would lock up steals for that team and CP3/Booker would help balance out the weakness of FVV fg%. I also don't like drafting bigs that don't provide stocks unless they provide other categories like assists/3s. Sabonis provides assists but not much 3s.

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if i were the raptor i would declare him healthy right now just so he can sit out that game lol

This guy is winning me a couple of PO matches this week, playing for the other teams.  Bless your soul, Fred — I don’t know what I’d do with you. 

He said after the game his body isn't right and he feels off so something to watch 

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12 minutes ago, c_dog said:

I think he may come back down to earth a bit this year.  And I don’t think his 1.9 Stl last year is sustainable.

 

I think he'll be right in line with what he did last year. The steals are for real imo. He's a high IQ defender.. quick hands, great anticipation and can read the passing lanes.

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2 minutes ago, sharkpotato said:

 

I think he'll be right in line with what he did last year. The steals are for real imo. He's a high IQ defender.. quick hands, great anticipation and can read the passing lanes.

There are a lot of guys who were elite in steals one year yet were never quite the same after (Larry Hughes in 04-05 averaged 2.9 steals and yet never averaged over 2 steals again in any of his other seasons.  His Career Stl average was 1.5 which paled in comparison; Thad Young in 13-14 is another example averaging 2.1 and never really came close again).  I think he can possibly get 1.4-1.5 again but hoping he can replicate 1.9 is setting yourself up for disappointment.  He’s still undersized with one of the shortest wingspan in the nba. He was never really a Stl specialist per 36 min in his previous seasons so most likely he will return to “normal”.

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7 hours ago, c_dog said:

There are a lot of guys who were elite in steals one year yet were never quite the same after (Larry Hughes in 04-05 averaged 2.9 steals and yet never averaged over 2 steals again in any of his other seasons.  His Career Stl average was 1.5 which paled in comparison; Thad Young in 13-14 is another example averaging 2.1 and never really came close again).  I think he can possibly get 1.4-1.5 again but hoping he can replicate 1.9 is setting yourself up for disappointment.  He’s still undersized with one of the shortest wingspan in the nba. He was never really a Stl specialist per 36 min in his previous seasons so most likely he will return to “normal”.

 

We'll see. you may be right but ill say this: there's a lot of things that work in Fred's favour here. The Raptors are elite when it comes to team defense, communication and effort and I think that plays a huge part in how he gets his steals - his teammates make it easier for him to get into the right positions to do so. There's just a lot of accountability on that end by everyone on the team. Fred may be undersized in terms of height (and actually plays to his advantage because he's able to pick the pockets of bigger guards easier with his quick and active hands) but he's deceptively strong; he has a low centre of gravity so on top of the effort he gives, it's tough for guards to get past him because it leads to a lot of careless ball handling by the player attacking him. He's also highly intelligent so a lot of his steals are also just off of him reading the plays quickly and blowing them up just by getting a piece of the ball. So yeah he may be undersized height wise and doesn't have the wingspan, but he doesn't need that because he's crafty, gives tons of effort and has the bball iq.. it's quite similar to Chris Paul actually who's another undersized guard.

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10 hours ago, c_dog said:

There are a lot of guys who were elite in steals one year yet were never quite the same after (Larry Hughes in 04-05 averaged 2.9 steals and yet never averaged over 2 steals again in any of his other seasons.  His Career Stl average was 1.5 which paled in comparison; Thad Young in 13-14 is another example averaging 2.1 and never really came close again).  I think he can possibly get 1.4-1.5 again but hoping he can replicate 1.9 is setting yourself up for disappointment.  He’s still undersized with one of the shortest wingspan in the nba. He was never really a Stl specialist per 36 min in his previous seasons so most likely he will return to “normal”.


Per 36 stls for FVV

16-17: 2.0

17-18: 1.6

18-19: 1.2

19-20: 1.9


Idk seems normal

 

 

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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10 hours ago, c_dog said:

There are a lot of guys who were elite in steals one year yet were never quite the same after (Larry Hughes in 04-05 averaged 2.9 steals and yet never averaged over 2 steals again in any of his other seasons.  His Career Stl average was 1.5 which paled in comparison; Thad Young in 13-14 is another example averaging 2.1 and never really came close again).  I think he can possibly get 1.4-1.5 again but hoping he can replicate 1.9 is setting yourself up for disappointment.  He’s still undersized with one of the shortest wingspan in the nba. He was never really a Stl specialist per 36 min in his previous seasons so most likely he will return to “normal”.

FVV going back to college averaged 1.86 steals when given 30+ min. In his NBA career up to date, it depends comparing '17 and '18, it seems the outlier was in '18 where he only averaged 0.9 in 27.5 mpg. His other seasons per 36 is 1.8+. Also, only 2 other players averaged 2.5+ threes and 1.5+ steals last season (Harden,Lavine). If we add assists, only Harden and FVV averaged over 2.5 threes, 1.5+ steals, 6.5 assists last season. Kyrie was close at 1.4 steals. 

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Guys keep in mind that Nurse rides his starters for huge minutes and Fred is taking over from Lowry next season the numbers will get better he is just entering his prime. I am taking him over Ja and Fox any day 

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1 hour ago, My Dinner With Andre said:


Per 36 stls for FVV

16-17: 2.0

17-18: 1.6

18-19: 1.2

19-20: 1.9


Idk seems normal

 

 

The first season he barely played.  I would think 1.6 and 1.2 is closer to his true average.  I could be wrong but I would not be drafting him expecting anywhere close to 2 Stl.  Would expect 1.5.  This means I’ll be missing him in most drafts which is ok.

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1 hour ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

Last season's #26 ranked player now showing out, with 21 points, 3 STEALS, in a half.

Yeah, I think he can keep it up with the steals.

 

Yup. Said it before - He hustles, quick hands, high iq defense. Small in height but defends big. Doesn't rely on athleticism but on craftiness. He's damn good.

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The keys to the team might be getting handed over to this guy. Siakim is the guy in Toronto but Fred might slowly be becoming the soul and heart of the team. Lowry still has a couple years of production left, but i wouldn't be surprised if Freddy averaged around 20 points with 6 assists and elite steals. Im excited for this guy, he is so underrated and deserves the world.

 

#BETONYOURSELF

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9 minutes ago, PaddyAustralia said:

The keys to the team might be getting handed over to this guy. Siakim is the guy in Toronto but Fred might slowly be becoming the soul and heart of the team. Lowry still has a couple years of production left, but i wouldn't be surprised if Freddy averaged around 20 points with 6 assists and elite steals. Im excited for this guy, he is so underrated and deserves the world.

 

#BETONYOURSELF

I don't think he is underrated. Very often FVV has been drafted at 3rd round, which is no way underrated.

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On 12/3/2020 at 2:01 PM, DonutGiveUp said:

I am taking him over Ja and Fox any day 

 

Honestly take FVV over CP3 and Murray too. I'm rooting for CP3 but he'll most likely regress to missing games again. Murray is being overdrafted from his playoff performance. FVV however is a reliable floor w/ great circumstantial upside. 

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I think he will average around 1.7 steals for 2 years or so (or until Raps change the system). Usually the high steal guys in the NBA have long arms for their size, along with instincts, so it's harder to believe Vanvleet is this good at it.

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9 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

This guy vs CP3 vs Fox vs Murray in around middle of round 3 to start middle of round 4, is quite hard to rank. Really depends on your needs and appetite for risk(cp3). 

He is way better than Fox/Murray in fantasy  and real life

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17 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

This guy vs CP3 vs Fox vs Murray in around middle of round 3 to start middle of round 4, is quite hard to rank. Really depends on your needs and appetite for risk(cp3). 

I'd take him over Fox and Murray pretty easily. For CP3 it depends on how you think his health will hold up. It's a wash if he stays healthy. 

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23 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:

This guy vs CP3 vs Fox vs Murray in around middle of round 3 to start middle of round 4, is quite hard to rank. Really depends on your needs and appetite for risk(cp3). 


Seems like a no brainer with VanVleet over them all.

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3 minutes ago, jay_00 said:


Seems like a no brainer with VanVleet over them all.

 

Lot of support here for Fred, but don't think it's THAT clear cut although I would also lean him over Murray/CP3/Fox

 

CP3- for sure is the best of the group per game, but obviously the age/injury risk makes it every close.  

Murray- the sample is small obviously but his performance in the playoffs certainly has to make you wonder if he can make a jump this year.

Fox- a strange profile overall,  not a huge fan of getting low ft% and 3s but is a lock for 1.5 steals/20+ppg with great fg% and seems to have upside to grow more. 

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1 hour ago, SportsBrain said:

 

Lot of support here for Fred, but don't think it's THAT clear cut although I would also lean him over Murray/CP3/Fox

 

CP3- for sure is the best of the group per game, but obviously the age/injury risk makes it every close.  

Murray- the sample is small obviously but his performance in the playoffs certainly has to make you wonder if he can make a jump this year.

Fox- a strange profile overall,  not a huge fan of getting low ft% and 3s but is a lock for 1.5 steals/20+ppg with great fg% and seems to have upside to grow more. 


The key factor here for Murray is that he was getting a whopping 40 mins per game in the playoffs. He obviously won't get anywhere near that for the season which will normalize his stat line a whole lot. That plus MPJ's emergence and the rookie pg Campuzzo or whatever his name is will all combine him from really breaking out imo. Best case scenario for him is doing what he did during January through March from last season for the whole year. Your assessments on the other two are the same reasons why I have VanVleet over them.

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1 hour ago, SportsBrain said:

 

Lot of support here for Fred, but don't think it's THAT clear cut although I would also lean him over Murray/CP3/Fox

 

CP3- for sure is the best of the group per game, but obviously the age/injury risk makes it every close.  

Murray- the sample is small obviously but his performance in the playoffs certainly has to make you wonder if he can make a jump this year.

Fox- a strange profile overall,  not a huge fan of getting low ft% and 3s but is a lock for 1.5 steals/20+ppg with great fg% and seems to have upside to grow more. 

 

You're making a stronger case for why to draft FVV over these guys. 

CP3 - Like you said, age and injury risk.

Murray - He had to play almost 40 min a game and shoot 51% from the field and 45% from 3 just to get to 26.5 ppg. He was HEAVILY relied on during the playoffs. He usually plays 31, 32 min in the regular season and he'll defer more to his teammates.

Fox - Like you said, strange profile.. I had him last year and he was a dud. Had to trade him. Top 40 is his absolute ceiling unless he can fix his ft and hit more 3's. FVV finished 25th last year on BBM. Fox will never reach that unless he fixes those things I mentioned.

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