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DeAndre Ayton 2020-2021 Outlook


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I think it's a consensus that he becomes a 2nd round pick (all the mock drafts I've done have him disappear in the 2nd round) but what I want to know is "who would you take before Ayton?". I really like his potential with CP3 potentially throwing up lobs & getting him better looks (I feel like his FG & PPG go up a tick), but I'm looking at names that have gone after him and made me think "Is this person going to end up higher than Ayton"?

Here's a sample list of who went in the last mock draft I did:

Round 2
(1) Andre - Devin Booker (Pho - PG,SG)
(2) Cantrell - Kevin Durant (Bkn - SF,PF)
(3) Jesus - Bam Adebayo (Mia - PF,C)
(4) Big Show - Kawhi Leonard (LAC - SG,SF)
(5) Julien 13 - Joel Embiid (Phi - PF,C)
(6) Haven - Paul George (LAC - SF,PF)
(7) Aaron - Ja Morant (Mem - PG)
(8) Me - Deandre Ayton (Pho - C)
(9) LA - Donovan Mitchell (Uta - PG,SG)
(10) Tony - Russell Westbrook (Hou - PG)
(11) Team 4 - Kyrie Irving (Bkn - PG,SG)
(12) Turbold - Zion Williamson (NO - PF)
(13) Derrick - Ben Simmons (Phi - PG)
(14) Mervin - Nikola Vucevic (Orl - PF,C)


If it weren't for their injuries/incoming load management, I can understand taking Kawhi, Durant and Embiid over them but I feel like passing on Vucevic or getting Morant/Bam ahead of Ayton was a bit much for me.

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This is why you never panic 2-3 weeks into the season, especially on healthy, young studs who have put up great seasons before. Especially for a 22 year old former #1 overall draft pick coming off an

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Added a 3 to his game during the bubble, 3rd year in the league, and the CP3 effect will give him plenty of looks.

What he gives you: Efficiency, boards, great FT%, great stocks contributor (close to 1spg, 1.5bpg last year). 

Fantasy gold.

I have him pretty much on par with Vucevic. Vooch if you prefer proven production, while for Ayton, you're banking on him taking that next step to become a borderline 1st-2nd rounder.

And I don't see why he can't.

Edited by Espoiral
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Easy 2nd rounder. He already was last season before the suspension kind of detailed him but he looked really good in the bubble and playing with cp3 means easy buckets all day. 

He's likely gonna be a 20/10 guy with 1.5 blocks, elite fg, and decent ft. 

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Ayton as 22nd pick is a steal. I ranked him 18th, but maybe he could finish even in TOP15. Ahead of him? Kawhi, Embiid and Durant are all better than Ayton, but we don't know how many games they will play. Still I think I would have drafted all of them ahead of Ayton. Bam is almost even, but of course Morant is a reach.

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5 hours ago, Espoiral said:

Added a 3 to his game during the bubble, 3rd year in the league, and the CP3 effect will give him plenty of looks.

What he gives you: Efficiency, boards, great FT%, great stocks contributor (close to 1spg, 1.5bpg last year). 

Fantasy gold.

I have him pretty much on par with Vucevic. Vooch if you prefer proven production, while for Ayton, you're banking on him taking that next step to become a borderline 1st-2nd rounder.

And I don't see why he can't.

 

4 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

He’s a stud, that’s all you need to know. Draft with confidence. One of my favorite young players, that is also commonly overlooked.

 

4 hours ago, fabrar said:

Easy 2nd rounder. He already was last season before the suspension kind of detailed him but he looked really good in the bubble and playing with cp3 means easy buckets all day. 

He's likely gonna be a 20/10 guy with 1.5 blocks, elite fg, and decent ft. 

 

2 hours ago, apatas said:

Ayton as 22nd pick is a steal. I ranked him 18th, but maybe he could finish even in TOP15. Ahead of him? Kawhi, Embiid and Durant are all better than Ayton, but we don't know how many games they will play. Still I think I would have drafted all of them ahead of Ayton. Bam is almost even, but of course Morant is a reach.

 

1 hour ago, kane said:

And don't forget oubre is not in suns anymore,his replacement Crowder is a low usage guy,so Ayton will have more touch and shot attempt this season

 

He's alright but I take Vooch all day long before him.
U're also forgetting about Book who might lead the league in points this year.
My guess Ayton doesn't crack 20PPG yet.
I dunno what's he's usage, but he doesn't get the ball nearly enough. Yes CP3 will obviously help with that, but I'm still not convinced.
Also his defensive stats are inconstant. 

@tazdingo Having said all that I'd take Westbrook and Vooch in front of DeAndre, but not Embiid, Kawhi, KD or Ja.

Edited by Stefan
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19 minutes ago, Stefan said:
5 hours ago, Espoiral said:

Added a 3 to his game during the bubble, 3rd year in the league, and the CP3 effect will give him plenty of looks.

What he gives you: Efficiency, boards, great FT%, great stocks contributor (close to 1spg, 1.5bpg last year). 

Fantasy gold.

I have him pretty much on par with Vucevic. Vooch if you prefer proven production, while for Ayton, you're banking on him taking that next step to become a borderline 1st-2nd rounder.

And I don't see why he can't.

 

4 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

He’s a stud, that’s all you need to know. Draft with confidence. One of my favorite young players, that is also commonly overlooked.

 

4 hours ago, fabrar said:

Easy 2nd rounder. He already was last season before the suspension kind of detailed him but he looked really good in the bubble and playing with cp3 means easy buckets all day. 

He's likely gonna be a 20/10 guy with 1.5 blocks, elite fg, and decent ft. 

 

2 hours ago, apatas said:

Ayton as 22nd pick is a steal. I ranked him 18th, but maybe he could finish even in TOP15. Ahead of him? Kawhi, Embiid and Durant are all better than Ayton, but we don't know how many games they will play. Still I think I would have drafted all of them ahead of Ayton. Bam is almost even, but of course Morant is a reach.

 

2 hours ago, kane said:

And don't forget oubre is not in suns anymore,his replacement Crowder is a low usage guy,so Ayton will have more touch and shot attempt this season

 

 

He's best stretch last season was in 11 february games where the averaged:
21.5p 12.5r 2.1a
0.7s 1.9b
on 57fg% and 67.9ft %
and 3.4TO

That was good for 23 overall rank (9 cat) at that moment
My point ? If u're drafting Ayton 2nd round, u're drafting him on his absolute ceiling

EDIT: I'm not hating on him, I'm just real. I LOVE WATCHING THE GUY. His midrange game is sick

Edited by Stefan
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11 hours ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

No offense, but whoever took Ja Morant that high is an idiot.

The effect of both ESPN and Yahoo taking the liberty of ranking him at his ceiling. It should be an option to turn off predraft rankings. In general, Yahoo in particular tries too hard to make NBA fantasy as easy as possible. 

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ALSO people forget he played with Ricky Rubio as his PG last year... I mean he ain't no Chris Paul, but he's a great assists guy. 

Just do yourself a favor and don't draft this guy with your 2nd round pick. And if u need a big go with Bam, Gobert, Vooch, Drummond... right now I might even rank Jonas Valanciunas in front. We don't know when's JJJ coming back.
JV stats (per 36) without JJJ 
22p 16r 1.5blk on 61fg% and 74ft% WUT ??!!!

The only center guys ranked in 20-50 range I wouldn't take before Ayton are J. Collins, Mitch Rob, Sabonis, LaMarcus and OFC Embiid

Edited by Stefan
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Depends on how you build your team. After AD, KAT, Embiid and Vooch, there are no more bigs who has the potential to give you 20-10 with over 1.5 BPG on pristine %s and will not nuke your FT%. Nurkic can potentially join that club if he stays healthy (wont reach 20ppg though). Porzingis doesn't rebound and shoot well enough as well.

Bam is a better player IRL, but his scoring is not enough and you will have to address that later in your draft. Gobert and Drumm will force you to punt FT%. 

This is where the appeal of Ayton comes in. Perfect 2nd pick on a punt assist build, my favorite strat which I understand is not for everyone. 

Then again if you are in a deep league h2h which is competitive, not punting and winning the championship is difficult. 

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As @Stefan mentioned, if you draft Ayton in the 2nd round you're basically taking him at his ceiling which only leaves room for disappointment. Obviously in the early rounds you often have to take guys at their ceiling but in the 2nd round I would rather target someone who is much more proven. I love Ayton and think Chris Paul will be a big help for him but i'm not sold on how it will translate fantasy wise. He was playing with Rubio last year who has a very similar play style to CP3 in terms of being a pass first guy. 

 

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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8 hours ago, Stefan said:

 

He's best stretch last season was in 11 february games where the averaged:
21.5p 12.5r 2.1a
0.7s 1.9b
on 57fg% and 67.9ft %
and 3.4TO

That was good for 23 overall rank (9 cat) at that moment
My point ? If u're drafting Ayton 2nd round, u're drafting him on his absolute ceiling

EDIT: I'm not hating on him, I'm just real. I LOVE WATCHING THE GUY. His midrange game is sick

Really Stefan, please name who you pick at TOP20? If not Embiid and not Ayton, then WHO? I know it is difficult to list all names, but I am really surprised what players you avoid.

Edited by apatas
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2 minutes ago, apatas said:

Really Stefan, please name who you pick at TOP20? If not Embiid and not Ayton, then WHO? I know it is difficult to list all names, but I am really surprised what players you avoid.

He listed the names bro

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7 minutes ago, apatas said:

Really Stefan, please name who you pick at TOP20? If not Embiid and not Ayton, then WHO?

 

Ayton I really like (fantasy and reallity). Just not at his ceiling in the 2nd round. Embiid I don't like at all. He won't give you more than 50-55 games this year, and if that's all u get, from your 2nd round pick (u're f uked up). 
Like I said... If we talk centers I take Bam, Vooch, Gobert, maybe Drummond if punting, and maybe Jonas. If we talk any TOP 20 player i'd take Booker, Trae Young, Tatum, Paul George, Westbrook, maybe Kawhi, Bradley Beal. That's about it

Edited by Stefan
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4 minutes ago, Stefan said:

 

Ayton I really like (fantasy and reallity). Just not at his ceiling in the 2nd round. Embiid I don't like at all. He won't give you more than 55 games this year, and if that's your 2nd round pick (u're f uked up). 
Like I said... If we talk centers i take Bam, Vooch, Gobert, maybe Drummond if punting, and maybe Jonas. If we talk any TOP 20 player i'd take Booker, Trae Young, Tatum, Paul George, Westbrook, maybe Kawhi, Bradley Beal. That's about it

Yes, now I see. Here is 12 names and of course will be added AD, Harden, Curry, KAT and others. I almost agree for everyone, but one simple move: Ayton and Embiid inside TOP20 instead of Gobert and Drummond. Of course Jonas is also not in TOP20, but I think you named him as "maybe".

Edited by apatas
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Just now, apatas said:

Yes, now I see. Here is 12 names and of course will be added AD, Harden, Curry, KAT and others. I almost agree for everyone, but one simple move: Ayton and Embiid inside TOP20 instead of Gobert and Drummond.

Fine per game value, sure. I'm talking about season long value. 
And if punting Drummond and Gobert are 1st round value. Drumm no.5 Gob no.9. So there's no way I'm taking Ayton 2nd round. 3rd fine. Can't complain

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6 hours ago, Stefan said:

Fine per game value, sure. I'm talking about season long value. 
And if punting Drummond and Gobert are 1st round value. Drumm no.5 Gob no.9. So there's no way I'm taking Ayton 2nd round. 3rd fine. Can't complain

Drumm and Gobert are solid 2nd round picks if you are punting FT. You will need to pair them with Giannis, Lebron or Luka for a dream punt FT start. 

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