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Aron Baynes 2020-2021 Outlook


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2019-2020:

454256657_ScreenShot2020-11-23at5_11_43AM.thumb.png.dc95bd1c65918802899abea0972ec5cf.png

Not much in terms of stocks, but he is a solid low end option for 12 teams. I'm pretty biased here as a raps fan so I think i'll pick him up somewhere in the late rounds.

He's really just a guy that works hard and does a lot of things that don't really show up on the stat sheet. But this might just be the year where he can shine a bit. He's a grinder and Nurse loves those types of players. Raps are lacking a bit in the front court so I can really see him get 30 min on most nights. Downside is he's turning 34 and he's injury prone (41gp last year, 52 gp in 18/19), so durability can potentially be an issue, but it's not a big factor when you're picking him late in the draft.

My expectations are not that different from what he did last season in starter minutes:

28.5 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.0 3s, 0.3 stls, 0.5 bpg, 48% fg, 75% ft

 

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1 hour ago, sharkpotato said:

2019-2020:

454256657_ScreenShot2020-11-23at5_11_43AM.thumb.png.dc95bd1c65918802899abea0972ec5cf.png

Not much in terms of stocks, but he is a solid low end option for 12 teams. I'm pretty biased here as a raps fan so I think i'll pick him up somewhere in the late rounds.

He's really just a guy that works hard and does a lot of things that don't really show up on the stat sheet. But this might just be the year where he can shine a bit. He's a grinder and Nurse loves those types of players. Raps are lacking a bit in the front court so I can really see him get 30 min on most nights. Downside is he's turning 34 and he's injury prone (41gp last year, 52 gp in 18/19), so durability can potentially be an issue, but it's not a big factor when you're picking him late in the draft.

My expectations are not that different from what he did last season in starter minutes:

28.5 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.0 3s, 0.3 stls, 0.5 bpg, 48% fg, 75% ft

 

Nurse loves a 34 year old do everything you can type of player. In other words his role won’t change.

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I didn't realize he was that old. I could've sworn he was around his late 20s and had his mini-breakout year last year with the Suns but I just checked and realized he's been playing for 7 years off the bench. I might have to do a double take on taking a chance on Boucher again with my last pick since this gives me a bit more confidence that Baynes won't be starting.
 

5 hours ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

Nurse loves a 34 year old do everything you can type of player. In other words his role won’t change.

 

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After thinking about it, I think he will max out at splitting minutes with Boucher over the season. Should get more minutes against teams with big C's.

 

What made me think this way is the 2 year contract he signed with the team option. That's the Raptors saying, "Hey, we got a role for you here we think but not sure. We will give it a try this year and if it works we will keep you for another year"

 

Boucher knows the system and is going to hit the ground running. Baynes might have some adapting to do. Plus Baynes is 34 so he can't play that many minutes. Plus Plus Boucher has gotten bigger every year.

 

I think Baynes gets 22 minutes or so on average.

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4 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

After thinking about it, I think he will max out at splitting minutes with Boucher over the season. Should get more minutes against teams with big C's.

 

What made me think this way is the 2 year contract he signed with the team option. That's the Raptors saying, "Hey, we got a role for you here we think but not sure. We will give it a try this year and if it works we will keep you for another year"

 

Boucher knows the system and is going to hit the ground running. Baynes might have some adapting to do. Plus Baynes is 34 so he can't play that many minutes. Plus Plus Boucher has gotten bigger every year.

 

I think Baynes gets 22 minutes or so on average.

Masai isnt committing to salary past this season. I believe only Pascal and FVV will be under contract. There are a TON of elite free agents next free agency and he is saving all the cap space he can. I dont see Boucher playing more than 15min a night

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Keep in mind, the minutes he did play next to Siakam, the lineup had a really good Net Rtg. Not that he played enough to make a convincing case.

However, it's true the Gasol lineup was used the most and Baynes fit that mold most closely. So you might be right, Boucher might play less but in my opinion it's going to be 20 minutes at least a night.

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42 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

After thinking about it, I think he will max out at splitting minutes with Boucher over the season. Should get more minutes against teams with big C's.

 

What made me think this way is the 2 year contract he signed with the team option. That's the Raptors saying, "Hey, we got a role for you here we think but not sure. We will give it a try this year and if it works we will keep you for another year"

 

Boucher knows the system and is going to hit the ground running. Baynes might have some adapting to do. Plus Baynes is 34 so he can't play that many minutes. Plus Plus Boucher has gotten bigger every year.

 

I think Baynes gets 22 minutes or so on average.

 

I just don't see Boucher splitting minutes with Baynes.. both of their contracts are team options for the second year to get as much cap space for next years FA crop. 

The more I think about it, I have this feeling that they're not done yet. I think they're gonna go after another big to support the thin front court. Baynes isn't that reliable in terms of health and once he goes down we're in trouble. Obviously if they do sign or trade for another big both Baynes and Bouchers value go down.

 

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17 minutes ago, sharkpotato said:

 

I just don't see Boucher splitting minutes with Baynes.. both of their contracts are team options for the second year to get as much cap space for next years FA crop. 

The more I think about it, I have this feeling that they're not done yet. I think they're gonna go after another big to support the thin front court. Baynes isn't that reliable in terms of health and once he goes down we're in trouble. Obviously if they do sign or trade for another big both Baynes and Bouchers value go down.

 

Raps just signed Alex Len 

Edited by DonutGiveUp
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Hard to say who will get more minutes. Len? Baynes? Boucher? I say Baynes 60 GP 23.5 MPG....Len 65 and 22....Boucher 65 and 20....Just guessing.

That comes out to 4140 total minutes. Or 57.6 MPG. So appropriately 9.6 minutes with 2 on the court at same time. Sounds reasonable enough.

Edited by dino10kk
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  • 2 weeks later...
12 minutes ago, tazdingo said:

He's been going undrafted in almost every mock draft I've done. I honestly thought the hype with him would've gone up.

 

I think the Len signing has put a damper on his value. Also seems like people are more enticed by Boucher and his potential.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Aron Baynes 2020-2021 Outlook
  • 4 weeks later...
5 hours ago, bballmaster said:

Any thoughts? He's been picking up steam (and seems to be taking back his spot from Boucher min again)

Feels like it's only a matchup thing. Boucher was getting bodied by Lopez and Giannis so that's why Baynes got more run. Maybe he gets more run the next few games - Raps play the Kings then the Magic twice.

If anything, I'd imagine he would most definitely play big minutes in the Magic games since there's no way they're matching Boucher against Vucevic. Could be a toss up against Holmes. But we'll see.

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