Coby White 2020-2021 Outlook

[sharkpotato 1,173]

This was his line from a 2 week stretch right up to the season suspension.

Ranked 38th on BBM in that time. Keep in mind that Zach Lavine was out with a quad injury for half those games. 

g	m/g	p/g	3/g	r/g	a/g	s/g	b/g	fg%	fga/g	ft%	fta/g	to/g

9

34.1

26.1

3.9

4.2

4.4

0.9

0.1

.480

19.9

.903

3.4

3.0

ADP is 65. A bit of a reach for me but I might grab him in the 8th round though if he's still available. His USG rate is consistently high and he's a bucket getter and I think even on a healthy Bulls squad he'll still find ways to get his points ala Lou Williams. One thing I don't like is that he's a shoot first PG. But if my team needs scoring I'll take a look at him.

Edited November 26, 2020 by sharkpotato

[Del Rio 511]

Not buying that efficiency he showed towards the end of last season. He's still going to have stretches where he tanks your percentages. I do like him as a flier since he seems like one of the highest upside PGs in the tier of players he's going.

[Johnnyapplebot 1,544]

Coby “The Homie” White was a pleasant surprise before the suspension. He was like a nightly 25 points 5 rebounds 5 assists. I don’t think I would be drafting him unless he shows me something in those 10 preseason games.

[sharkpotato 1,173]

27 minutes ago, Del Rio said:

Not buying that efficiency he showed towards the end of last season. He's still going to have stretches where he tanks your percentages. I do like him as a flier since he seems like one of the highest upside PGs in the tier of players he's going.

 

Throw those percentages out the window. He's going to tank it for sure. I'm expecting 40-42% this season.

[kane 2,886]

I would rather draft sexton in later round if I want a scoring pg

[DonutGiveUp 1,973]

Bad % and turnover machine. If Bulls are healthy he could be a forgotten man 

[My Dinner With Andre 5,805]

2 hours ago, sharkpotato said:

ADP is 65. 

 

[fabrar 2,790]

Not even touching him in the first 8-9 rounds. Might take a flier later on if I end up punting fg% and need a scorer.

[SicarioSanity 321]

3 hours ago, kane said:

I would rather draft sexton in later round if I want a scoring pg

Amen. Sexton is an excellent value at his current ADP, and a likelier lock to build on his stats last year. As what a poster above said, Lavine was out for half of the games during Coby's detonation. Not to mention Boylen is also out, which will mean Lauri will be utilized more effectively. Take Sexton in the later rounds instead.

[apatas 437]

I agree that sample is too small, but I was here surprised that everybody is against him. As I understood RW crew is quite high on him. Still I ask: Satoransky finished last season as 130th player, can't Coby White finish about 30 places higher?

[RipCity0 745]

6 hours ago, DonutGiveUp said:

Bad % and turnover machine. If Bulls are healthy he could be a forgotten man 

 

he isn't turnover machine though. 1.7 is great for a rookie guard.

[rasto21585 264]

Coby White Talks Billy Donovan’s System | Heavy.com

 

[MrCantaloupe 569]

Coby made 37.8% of his final 211 three-point attempts. Had he shot that well from beyond the arc all year, his FG% would have been 40.5% and he would have averaged 19.1 points and 3.1 threes per 36. He also showed some solid FT potential down the stretch, hitting 90.9% of his final 44 free-throws.

Problem is, he shot 33.5% between 3-feet and the 3-point line (212 attempts). His 2-point FG% (43%) dragged down an otherwise strong year. But this isn't uncommon for rookie point guards.

Below are some of the prominent point guards from the 2017 and 2018 drafts, and their 2-point FG% progression from year 1 to year 2: 

 

Markelle Fultz: 40.5 -> 43.2% -> 48.8% (year3)

Lonzo Ball: 42% -> 48.2%

Dennis Smith Jr: 43.5% -> 47.7%

De'Aaron Fox: 43.6% -> 48.2%

Derrick White: 40% -> 52.9

Trae Young: 47.7 -> 50.1%

Luka Doncic: 50.3 -> 57.4%

Collin Sexton: 44.0% -> 50.1%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 50.3% -> 51.2%

 

On average, their 2-point FG% jumped from 44.6% to 49.9%. Markelle Fultz appears to skew the results downward, but his yips are well documented, so maybe that year can be thrown out. Nevertheless, I think it's safe to expect an increase to about 48% for Coby. If that happens, and the 3-point shooting from his second half of the year remains strong, we're looking at a per 36 line like:

 

FG: 43.1% (17 attempts) 

FT: 80% (3 attempts)

3's: 3.1

PTS: 20.2

REB: 5

AST: 4

STL: 1.1

BLK: 0.1

TO: 2.3

 

If Donovan can extract from him an even greater jump in 2-point FG% (~50%), or if he increases his usage (bumping his assists), or if his FT% approaches his end-of-year levels, we will absolutely have a breakout player on our hands. Otherwise, I think it's more than reasonable to expect the numbers above, with room for more from the 20-year old.

[hornrimmed_rambis 2,087]

41 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Coby made 37.8% of his final 211 three-point attempts. Had he shot that well from beyond the arc all year, his FG% would have been 40.5% and he would have averaged 19.1 points and 3.1 threes per 36. He also showed some solid FT potential down the stretch, hitting 90.9% of his final 44 free-throws.

Problem is, he shot 33.5% between 3-feet and the 3-point line (212 attempts). His 2-point FG% (43%) dragged down an otherwise strong year. But this isn't uncommon for rookie point guards.

Below are some of the prominent point guards from the 2017 and 2018 drafts, and their 2-point FG% progression from year 1 to year 2: 

 

Markelle Fultz: 40.5 -> 43.2% -> 48.8% (year3)

Lonzo Ball: 42% -> 48.2%

Dennis Smith Jr: 43.5% -> 47.7%

De'Aaron Fox: 43.6% -> 48.2%

Derrick White: 40% -> 52.9

Trae Young: 47.7 -> 50.1%

Luka Doncic: 50.3 -> 57.4%

Collin Sexton: 44.0% -> 50.1%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 50.3% -> 51.2%

 

On average, their 2-point FG% jumped from 44.6% to 49.9%. Markelle Fultz appears to skew the results downward, but his yips are well documented, so maybe that year can be thrown out. Nevertheless, I think it's safe to expect an increase to about 48% for Coby. If that happens, and the 3-point shooting from his second half of the year remains strong, we're looking at a per 36 line like:

 

FG: 43.1% (17 attempts) 

FT: 80% (3 attempts)

3's: 3.1

PTS: 20.2

REB: 5

AST: 4

STL: 1.1

BLK: 0.1

TO: 2.3

 

If Donovan can extract from him an even greater jump in 2-point FG% (~50%), or if he increases his usage (bumping his assists), or if his FT% approaches his end-of-year levels, we will absolutely have a breakout player on our hands. Otherwise, I think it's more than reasonable to expect the numbers above, with room for more from the 20-year old.

 

You are using a biased sample set of data, which had Coby in and Zach out at the end of the season. Coby went on an incredible run, no question. But he did it in a different system, with a different coach, with the biggest usage guy off the court.

Put it this way. If you use the earlier part of the season, and extrapolate from that set, you would say he is awful. So my guess is somewhere in between is his true value.

 

[MrCantaloupe 569]

18 minutes ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

 

You are using a biased sample set of data, which had Coby in and Zach out at the end of the season. Coby went on an incredible run, no question. But he did it in a different system, with a different coach, with the biggest usage guy off the court.

Put it this way. If you use the earlier part of the season, and extrapolate from that set, you would say he is awful. So my guess is somewhere in between is his true value.

 

 

Zach missed only 5 games last year. Coby's three point shooting fell off in these games (31%). In the games they played together, Coby averaged 8 three point attempts per 36. In their final 50 games played together, Coby made 38.7% of his threes.

[rebol2n 51]

Yahoo ADP is 69... What do you guys think. He had a monster finish last season. 

[kane 2,886]

35 minutes ago, rebol2n said:

Yahoo ADP is 69... What do you guys think. He had a monster finish last season. 

Just to remind those monster game mostly without Bulls 3 starters(Markkanen,Otto,WCJ)

 

[MrCantaloupe 569]

17 minutes ago, kane said:

Just to remind those monster game mostly without Bulls 3 starters(Markkanen,Otto,WCJ)

 

 

Otto's career usage is 16.9%, and he's played in only 24 games for the Bulls since being traded to them 675 days ago. WCJ's on 2019-20 was 16.4%. None of them played more than 30 mpg in 2019-20, and all of them play different positions than Coby. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by MrCantaloupe
cantaloupe not ripe

[DonutGiveUp 1,973]

57 minutes ago, rebol2n said:

Yahoo ADP is 69... What do you guys think. He had a monster finish last season. 

So bad on defense. Donovan will end up bringing him off the bench  

[My Dinner With Andre 5,805]

One thing for sure: There's going to be a lot of volatility in his stock, at least out of the gate.

 

Buyer beware.

[tdye 38]

I probably wouldn't draft him near the 60s. He probably still won't be super efficient, and he doesn't get many defensive stats. I think he may be top 50, but he could also be outside the top 100. Something like 18/4/4 with 2.5 threes and 80+%ft is possible and looks really good, but if it comes with 40-43%fg, 2+ turnovers, and only 1 steal+block, then I would rather draft someone else at that point. I think Lou Williams would be a cheaper alternative much later in drafts.

 

Another comparison from last year is Graham, who was just #58 in 8-cat despite 18.2/3.3/7.5 with 3.5 threes and 82%ft. Although he only shot 38.2% from the floor.

 

[laurilegend 207]

poor man's trae young.  dominating.

[sharkpotato 1,173]

Man is a bucket getter. Not shy about taking shots. He'll have terrible shooting nights but he can easily get to 18-20 ppg on this team.

[DiscoNinja33 307]

Maybe those last 9 games weren't a fluke.

Kid is a walking bucket, if he keeps developing his passing IQ and tightens up his D a little, Bulls have their franchise PG. 

As for fantasy, huge upside in a punt FG% build. 

[Jugernot 113]

I never care about fg% too much so I’m picking him whenever I can. Dude is going to ball this season.