Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Michael Kopech 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

I think Kopech is the ChiSox biggest x-factor next season. He opted out of last year due to some personal issues including anxiety (probably related to said issues). Because of this he missed out on some valuable experience and stamina building. 

That being said, he should be physically excellent going into next year. 

Steamer and Depth Charts are both bearish on him for next year, but I dont know how much stock to put in those in this situation:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-kopech/17282/stats?position=P

In keepers he's far more interesting, but I think he's more of a flyer in redrafts. He's a nice gamble if your pitching staff is already pretty stable or if your rotation is a total crapshoot. 

Should be fun!

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 89
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Closing the book after 87 pitches and a dominant outing of 5 IP, 10k, 4 H, 1 ER. Should pick up the W with the Sox ahead 8-1, and thank you Tony la Russa for being old school and letting him go deeper

On the precipice of gaining RP eligibility. One more relief appearance to go. 

I believe Lynn is on the 10-day so a good chance he gets another chance to start and throw 3-4 innings soon. I dunno what his innings limit is on the year but they are stretching him a little more agg

4 hours ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

This guy will be my "must have" in all drafts. Low Key possible top 5 Sp. 

I dont think top 5 is reasonable just because of how many innings he will get. 

But I like the optimism !

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Arm talent is there.  But keep in mind he opted out of 2020 because he was dealing with depression and getting divorced after only being married for about 5 months.  His wife I want to say was pregnant at the time as well and due to give birth sometime in January.  So his life could be in total disarray right now.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/30/2020 at 5:56 PM, FouLLine said:

Arm talent is there.  But keep in mind he opted out of 2020 because he was dealing with depression and getting divorced after only being married for about 5 months.  His wife I want to say was pregnant at the time as well and due to give birth sometime in January.  So his life could be in total disarray right now.

I thought I read the kid wasn't his? If it is then yeah that's another major psychological hurdle to overcome right before ST...

cue Maury gif

Anyway, I think he has the biggest gap between floor and ceiling of any pitcher in baseball. It's not unreasonable to think he could produce 140 IP of top 15 near-ace performance, driven mostly by Ks and Ws. Also not unreasonable to think he spends more time in AAA than in MLB, or more time in MLB as an RP rather than an SP.  With a possible (?) MLB record time to recover from TJS (kind of a silver lining) he will nonetheless have gone 2.5+ years between pitches on an MLB mound (opposite of silver lining). That is a damn long time. If he pitches 140 innings and is a starter throughout, it may take him one quarter of those innings, maybe more, to really dial **** in and get comfortable and shake that rust off.

Also would not surprise me if he's the centerpiece in a trade for someone like Blake Snell, and at that point his value is hugely dependent on where he goes.

 

Edited by sleepysock
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/7/2020 at 3:28 AM, sleepysock said:

I thought I read the kid wasn't his? If it is then yeah that's another major psychological hurdle to overcome right before ST...

cue Maury gif

Anyway, I think he has the biggest gap between floor and ceiling of any pitcher in baseball. It's not unreasonable to think he could produce 140 IP of top 15 near-ace performance, driven mostly by Ks and Ws. Also not unreasonable to think he spends more time in AAA than in MLB, or more time in MLB as an RP rather than an SP.  With a possible (?) MLB record time to recover from TJS (kind of a silver lining) he will nonetheless have gone 2.5+ years between pitches on an MLB mound (opposite of silver lining). That is a damn long time. If he pitches 140 innings and is a starter throughout, it may take him one quarter of those innings, maybe more, to really dial **** in and get comfortable and shake that rust off.

Also would not surprise me if he's the centerpiece in a trade for someone like Blake Snell, and at that point his value is hugely dependent on where he goes.

 

 

Between TJ, his divorce, and opting last year out I think 140 MLB innings would be unlikely.  Even if everything broke right for him 140 may not be achievable for him in 2021.

 

The White Sox just traded Dunning and said they are not done yet so Kopech could very well be traded this off season.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

Between TJ, his divorce, and opting last year out I think 140 MLB innings would be unlikely.  Even if everything broke right for him 140 may not be achievable for him in 2021.

 

The White Sox just traded Dunning and said they are not done yet so Kopech could very well be traded this off season.

Yeah 140 I see as realistic best case if he breaks camp as a starter or spends a few weeks in the minors before getting the call around late April. 28 starts at an average of 5 IP per seems possible. They can afford to baby him now early and have the bullpen do a lot of work in abbreviated 3-4 inning outings now that they have three vets they can reasonably count on to eat up 550+ innings in Gio/DK/Lynn (sort of how they treated Dunning when he was called up last year). If he doesn't wear down we might see him routinely go 6+ post ASB as long as he's pitching well.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 months later...
19 minutes ago, Mongeese said:

Any idea of his role this year?

Multi inning relief role to start.

My guess is he slides into the rotation at some point if he performs well

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/25/2021 at 8:27 PM, rrrich46 said:

Anyone think he starts later in the season?

Yes, I really think that's the plan for him long term.  However, if you are in a shallow or non-keeper league, then watch him and scoop him up if he's pitching well.  If you are in a deep league, then he's worth a flyer.  If you are in a keeper league, then I personally would target him.  Pitching is toughest to predict but he has all the tools to be a stud.

Good luck.

Edited by Dr. JJ
Link to post
Share on other sites

OMG, this dude was absolutely filthy tonight.  Throwing 99mph BBs and flames coming out of his hand!  Google tonight's highlights and you will be impressed.  This was only one game and if you are in a shallow league, place him on your scout team.  If you are in a deep league, then consider picking him up.  If you are in a dynasty league, then run to your computer and pick him up.  This lottery ticket just may cash later this year!    

Edited by Dr. JJ
Link to post
Share on other sites

Most encouraging news is that he's already on a 40ish pitch count. With a lot of starters likely restricted this year, he could end up with 10+ wins and a ton of holds in a relief role to go along with some insane K numbers. Might just have a vintage Betances/Hader insane relief pitcher year.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, summersoff7 said:

Is this guy just a luxury stash with some stand alone value, or is he going to start this year?

He’ll likely start this year.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Dude might be one of the best middle relief guys this year. Undecided if to buy a share or not. He's currently just SP in Yahoo!

I bet he gets dual eligibility soon, better decide quickly.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HaloFanatic17 said:

Hard to add him in SV only leagues but those ratios sure do look enticing 

I did.  Prior to the injury and COVID he was one of the top pitching prospects around and his "stuff" certainly seems intact in the early going this year. Looking like he may be able to offer old Andrew Miller/pre-closer Hader type numbers all with the possibility of some starts later in the year.  I'll take a shot at that for free.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...