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Ja Morant 2020-2021 Outlook


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5 minute video to say the time of recovery depends on the severity of the injury.  You're welcome.

You think meybe this weekend? 🤔

Found a doctor this time 

Took a leap of faith on Ja in the 6th round last season and was obviously pleasantly surprised.  He'll always have a great floor FG% for a PG because his athleticism and attacking style allows him to get easy buckets inside and his AST were great for a rookie.  Those categories should at least stay the same, and the hope is that he can modestly elevate his 3PM and FT% while cutting down on TO in his 2nd year.  His 18.1 PTS, 0.9 STL and 3.9 REB are the wild cards as they could either stay the same or substantially jump if he sees an increase in his 31 MPG and/or 14 FGA (often got the feeling he was being lowkey load-managed last season, and FGA might increase with JJJ out)

So I'd say late 5th round floor and 4th round ceiling with a line of about:

46-49 FG%

77-80 FT%

1.5-2.0 3PM

4-5 REB

7.5-8.5 AST

1.0-1.3 STL

18-22 PTS

3.0-3.5 TO

 

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1 hour ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

Took a leap of faith on Ja in the 6th round last season and was obviously pleasantly surprised.  He'll always have a great floor FG% for a PG because his athleticism and attacking style allows him to get easy buckets inside and his AST were great for a rookie.  Those categories should at least stay the same, and the hope is that he can modestly elevate his 3PM and FT% while cutting down on TO in his 2nd year.  His 18.1 PTS, 0.9 STL and 3.9 REB are the wild cards as they could either stay the same or substantially jump if he sees an increase in his 31 MPG and/or 14 FGA (often got the feeling he was being lowkey load-managed last season, and FGA might increase with JJJ out)

So I'd say late 5th round floor and 4th round ceiling with a line of about:

46-49 FG%

77-80 FT%

1.5-2.0 3PM

4-5 REB

7.5-8.5 AST

1.0-1.3 STL

18-22 PTS

3.0-3.5 TO

 

No chance he falls that much. Every mock i have done hes gone 3rd round. If he fell to 4th or 5th that's extreme luck

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2 hours ago, DonutGiveUp said:

No chance he falls that much. Every mock i have done hes gone 3rd round. If he fell to 4th or 5th that's extreme luck


3rd round is a bit too rich for my blood. If I draft a traditional PG in the 3rd then I’d better be getting a 2 of 3 combination of elite AST/STL/3PM and Ja simply doesn’t promise that. I’d consider Morant in the next tier of PGs that I’d be looking at mid-late 4th if I can mitigate his relatively low 3PM and STL for a 4th round PG

 

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After Doncic and Trae both went from ranked in the 100s in their rookie years to top 25 in their second year, people are drafting Ja like they expect the same from him. There literally is no value drafting him so high. 

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we did see lavine with a random jump in steals was basically sub 1, 1 steal and jumped to 1.5 last year (year 6)

would need a pretty large jump in steals and or threes to break even or return value in the 3rd. has the talent and was only a rookie but growth isnt linear. see fox

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
11 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Funny how a lot of the experts were down on him because he didn’t get that any treys or steals as a rookie. Amateur hour.

 

He’s in store for an epic year.

Everyone went Zion crazy, honestly surprised there wasn’t more hype on Ja.

Reaching for him in early 2nd, looking like a boss move right about now.

High volume 3’s might never be there. But  his scoring should skyrocket, uptick in stocks & assists.

Bump in %’s definitely for his sophomore campaign as well.

You love to see it.

Hand’s down my favorite player in the league since last season. 

And so fun to watch.

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1 hour ago, greatestmetfan said:


This did not age well.


After 1 game? You expect him to be the number 1 ranked player the rest of the year? He certainly wont average 2 steals a game, only 1 turnover, and 44 points the rest of the way.

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29 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

What the heck are you guys arguing about, seriously.

 

One of the best young players in the game, and has potential to return at least 2nd round value. Get him on your squads.

 

You don't like him, why? Because Basketball Monster ranked him poorly on a per-game basis as a rookie? Come on.


It’s because some people can’t understand the “jumps” players are capable of and analyze their stats from the previous year only. This kids talent is off the charts. All I know is I’m not convinced there are even 15 players I would trade him for at this point. Some people may say this is an overreaction to one game, but I’ve watched him since his college days and I just don’t see many players who are more talented in the league right now. 

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36 minutes ago, JormaJormala said:

I baked in "The Jump", but lack of stocks, high turnovers and modest threes kept me away from him. Maybe he keeps on scoring on the 40s with consistent basis though. 


Has nothing to do with consistently scoring in the 40s since that’s not realistic. I guess league format matters as well, as many play in no turnover leagues but either way almost every top 15 guard has high turnovers. But again, you’re convinced after just his rookie year he can’t shoot 3s or get steals? If you baked in the “jump”, where did you bake it in then? 

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43 minutes ago, SportsBrain said:


It’s because some people can’t understand the “jumps” players are capable of and analyze their stats from the previous year only. This kids talent is off the charts. All I know is I’m not convinced there are even 15 players I would trade him for at this point. Some people may say this is an overreaction to one game, but I’ve watched him since his college days and I just don’t see many players who are more talented in the league right now. 


Talent isn't the question, it's the stats. Can he get the steals, lower the turnover rate, and hit threes? If not then he's basically a 4th round player. I saw him go as high as $30 in auction leagues which is basically like 1st pick of the 3rd round. Why take the risk spending that? Rather take the safer option and spend less money with Vanvleet. Heck, in most leagues you could've gotten Vanvleet and Sexton for the price of Ja.

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2 hours ago, jay_00 said:


Talent isn't the question, it's the stats. Can he get the steals, lower the turnover rate, and hit threes? If not then he's basically a 4th round player. I saw him go as high as $30 in auction leagues which is basically like 1st pick of the 3rd round. Why take the risk spending that? Rather take the safer option and spend less money with Vanvleet. Heck, in most leagues you could've gotten Vanvleet and Sexton for the price of Ja.

Someone didn’t draft Ja...

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2 hours ago, jay_00 said:

 Heck, in most leagues you could've gotten Vanvleet and Sexton for the price of Ja.

 

Ja + streamer >>>>> Vanvleet & Sexton

Not even close. 

We haven’t even scratched the surface of this kid’s potential.

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1 hour ago, Wise guy said:

Someone didn’t draft Ja...


Yea i didnt, and even tho Vanvleet didn't have the best game, he still gave me 3 stls and 2 threes. I'm sure he can do around that for a full season unlike Ja.

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