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Luka Doncic 2020-2021 Outlook


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I took him #2 overall no hesitation. I’m of the camp that he’s the #1 overall pick this year. Harden’s trade demand marks many uncertainties when it comes to games played, effort level, and overall fi

I feel you man. Fantasy basketball is about winning but it's also about having fun. And watching Luka play is just super fun (let alone if u have him on your team).  I had great pleasure to watch hi

Take Harden and then trade with the Luka owner later for Luka + strong player

Damn, really really could've used him tonight.  But I suppose it's my luck that he's out.  Ugh.

I'll remember this strange fantasy season where, after 2 weeks, Luka's shooting under 10% from deep on volume while Ben Simmons is 100% from deep, lol.

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3 hours ago, Abhi said:

brunson or finney smith for scoring today?

 

Hope you got some Brunson szn like I suggested.

 

The other Mavs like Hardaway & Richardson are sorry shot creators/ facilitators. People earlier in this thread were complaining how it looked like Luka was playing with scrubs so far this year. They kind of just are bleh guys.

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24 minutes ago, dragonballz said:

Get lost man... Your attitude contributes to the growing toxicity of this forum. 

The issue with the forum is basketball content related you twit. Stop being lazy.

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20 hours ago, bbythepier said:

 

I slotted in brunson in a deep league

Hahah I didn't check here, but luckily I did choose Brunson. He was clutch last year when Luka sat, so I figured I'd roll with him. But man, I didn't expect him to come through like that. I would have lost 4-5, Ended up winning 6-3 because of him.

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curious why he was consensus? 1.1 on yahoo with such better options?

volume is king or what? you knew he needed to improve in multiple cats to justify that adp.

ik its early but still seems early(adp). but ill chalk it up to volume like giannis (adp)

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Wanted to have a general discussion around this guy being an early candidate for MVP. It is my unpopular opinion that the media is jumping the gun on Luka.

This is not me saying he isn't an all star or even a league superstar but more so saying that he is not close to being at an MVP level. A few statistics dating back to last season that support the argument:

 

  • Bad 3% despite shooting a lot of threes: Luke is a career 31% 3 point shooter while shooting 8 a game. Only superstar that shoots it worse is Giannis, and Giannis affects the game defensively to another level than luka can.
  • Last year Luka didn't shot up in big games: I believe I saw an article that showed Luka shot 42% vs teams over .500 while 48% vs teams under .500... media is being biased because of his bubble game winner.
  • He isn't as important to the teams success as other players: Jokic, Kat, Lavine, Giannis, Harden, and Steph I would say are all more valuable to their teams than Luka is.

 

How this relates to fantasy: Media calling him an MVP altered his ADP considerably. Fantasy Pros ranked his ADP #2, FantasySP ranked him 2.5, and Yahoo 2.3. The reality is that he is more of a back end first rounder early second rounder. Until he improves in 3 point shooting/defensive stats we need to temper our expectations and look else where for top 6-8 picks. We all could have had Paul George and be having much stronger fantasy seasons, or even Zach Lavine.

 

Open to other opinions but wanted to provide some early season analysis as an owner of him.

 

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11 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

Wanted to have a general discussion around this guy being an early candidate for MVP. It is my unpopular opinion that the media is jumping the gun on Luka.

This is not me saying he isn't an all star or even a league superstar but more so saying that he is not close to being at an MVP level. A few statistics dating back to last season that support the argument:

 

  • Bad 3% despite shooting a lot of threes: Luke is a career 31% 3 point shooter while shooting 8 a game. Only superstar that shoots it worse is Giannis, and Giannis affects the game defensively to another level than luka can.
  • Last year Luka didn't shot up in big games: I believe I saw an article that showed Luka shot 42% vs teams over .500 while 48% vs teams under .500... media is being biased because of his bubble game winner.
  • He isn't as important to the teams success as other players: Jokic, Kat, Lavine, Giannis, Harden, and Steph I would say are all more valuable to their teams than Luka is.

 

How this relates to fantasy: Media calling him an MVP altered his ADP considerably. Fantasy Pros ranked his ADP #2, FantasySP ranked him 2.5, and Yahoo 2.3. The reality is that he is more of a back end first rounder early second rounder. Until he improves in 3 point shooting/defensive stats we need to temper our expectations and look else where for top 6-8 picks. We all could have had Paul George and be having much stronger fantasy seasons, or even Zach Lavine.

 

Open to other opinions but wanted to provide some early season analysis as an owner of him.

 

 

As a MFFL for over a decade, and Luka owner, I'll comment:

Luka's missed treys are really ugly, I'll give you that.  It's absolutely infuriating to see him brick stepback treys.  It looks really nice when they go in, because they're like Harden's treys and are nearly unstoppable ... he just doesn't make them as much, nor does he have Harden's threat of making FTs if he pump-fakes defenders with it.  The main defense for him taking long treys is because his teammates really aren't very good at all (as in whenever they get the ball, they'll dribble in place, attack and get stopped out, and then get forced into passing it to Luka with 2 seconds left on the shot clock to hoist a prayer), but Luka also needs to take fewer of them anyway.

As for Luka being worse against better teams, it's because they know nobody else is a threat, so he's constantly against not only teams' best defenders, but also getting doubled and targeted by bigs who are waiting for him in the post. Check out the LAC series last year to see how badly Luka was manhandled by MM/Pat Bev/Kawhi in the POs.

I'd disagree that Luka's less important to his teams' success, esp considering the teams you mentioned.  Steph would've had Klay, and supposedly Oubre/Wiggins/Dray should be better than anyone else the Mavs have on their roster.  KAT has Dlo and a deep roster of young players.  Jokic's Nuggets team not only has Murry but MPJ and a (formerly) deep bench as well.  Giannis has Middleton, Jrue, and an excellent team.  Harden has Wood (who is on fire) and an experienced Wall alongside him. I think the one team you mentioned who needs their star player the most is the Bulls with Lavine, but even then he's really a ball-stopper and doesn't play defense ... It's more they basically have nobody else to score other than a streaky Coby.  Point being that if Luka were to go down, there's nobody who could really be a threat, unless you want to count the oft-injured KP.  The Mavs team was built around Luka, with hordes of scorers and random defenders.

 

Fantasy-wise, this is an instance where his potential owners should account for his weaknesses: His awful 3pt shooting hurts more IRL, because he's quite good around the rim and his 45% shooting from the field overall is acceptable for a guard.  If he improves this year's aberration of 22% from deep, he'll also be closer to hitting his 3PM averages as well (around 2.5 3PM).  You're only really penalized for his chucking if you play in a league with 3P%, where i'd agree his ADP should drop heavily.

As for stocks, you don't pick up Luka for that.  Even then, averages of 1.0 stl and 0.6 blks isn't bad this season; Trae is averaging even worse, for example. It's hard to compare Luka now to PG.  Luka's having an abysmal shooting funk and is coming out of poor conditioning, along with not having KP to alleviate some offensive pressure.  PG is playing out of his mind, with huge boosts to nearly every one of his stats; you don't expect his one year of 2018-2019 to be the norm, when his averages show a much different story.  You're taking Luka for points/FG%/assists/rebounds.  You're taking PG for FT%, treys, stls, and perhaps fewer TOs.  Luka fits much better on a punt FT%/TO team or something; I tried to pair him with Drummond/Simmons personally. As for Lavine, I was high on him (grabbed him last year in R5 in every one of my leagues, but he wasn't a secret this year and I couldn't get him anywhere), but again, he's more of a pure scorer than Luka.  I would say he's a better value than Luka for sure.

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Heh, my boy is getting some revenge on the Hornets.

I lost 7-8 players in one league due to PPD/rest/injury this week already, and playing against Myles Turner 5x.  Luka's one game tonight is basically turning my 1-8 to 4-5 on his own.  If he made his FT and kept his TOs down, I'd actually be 5-4 ...

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  • 2 weeks later...

Have him in a points league where the score system is a little different. Checked his score "ok, 68 , another big game from luka, nice " 

Then noticed the "Half Time " underneath it .....

 

❤️

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