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Juan Soto 2021 Outlook


Hanghow
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ZiPS just threw out Ted Williams as the top same-age comp for Soto. If we wanted to throw some ridiculously high expectations out there, Williams began the 1941 season at 22 and had a wRC+ of 221 while hitting .406 with a .553 OBP. Guess what age Soto will be to start the 2021 season!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-washington-nationals/

Edited by Hanghow
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Sky is the limit.  Hell, barring injury, sky might even be the floor for Soto.  Especially if that improved BB/K ratio holds up - it was already very nice, but in the shortened season he actually had more BBs than Ks.  To me, he is the safest bet behind Trout at this point, when you factor in that he'll be good for ~10 SBs in a full season.

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I've come to grips recently that there is no way I can persuade myself not to take him #1. I have never been so confident in a player having an all-time great season. I mean, I felt that way last year also. Obviously he did nothing to shake my confidence. Yeah, the SB # is a bit of a ?, but he's not Miggy. He's not going to give you just 1 or 2. He's averaged roughly one steal per 10 games since 2019, and has a success rate of 83%. Pencil him in for 10 at a minimum with 20 as a reasonable ceiling. Combined with the likely insane numbers he will pump through the other 4 cats in standard 5x5 (to say nothing of his value in OBP leagues), in my mind you have the new best offensive player in baseball taking his spot on the throne, and he's not giving it up for a long, long time.

Edited by sleepysock
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9 hours ago, sleepysock said:

I've come to grips recently that there is no way I can persuade myself not to take him #1. I have never been so confident in a player having an all-time great season. I mean, I felt that way last year also. Obviously he did nothing to shake my confidence. Yeah, the SB # is a bit of a ?, but he's not Miggy. He's not going to give you just 1 or 2. He's averaged roughly one steal per 10 games since 2019, and has a success rate of 83%. Pencil him in for 10 at a minimum with 20 as a reasonable ceiling. Combined with the likely insane numbers he will pump through the other 4 cats in standard 5x5 (to say nothing of his value in OBP leagues), in my mind you have the new best offensive player in baseball taking his spot on the throne, and he's not giving it up for a long, long time.

 

Whoa slow down buddy, at age 23 Miggy went and did .339/.430 - 26 - 114 - 112 - 9  😉  Also Miggy is a phenomenal comp, only Soto has a better eye, more speed, and even a bit more power.   😮

 

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On 12/7/2020 at 1:23 PM, OaksterDan said:

Sky is the limit.  Hell, barring injury, sky might even be the floor for Soto.  Especially if that improved BB/K ratio holds up - it was already very nice, but in the shortened season he actually had more BBs than Ks.  To me, he is the safest bet behind Trout at this point, when you factor in that he'll be good for ~10 SBs in a full season.

The roof is the ceiling. 

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  • 3 months later...

I have the #1 pick in a 5x5 12 team roto, and am I crazy for leaning taking Soto?  I know he might only get 10-20 steals, but he did say he wanted to run more, and more importantly I think the other 4 categories are the safest in the draft.  I also genuinely think he has the potential to have like a 330 BA season, hell he did it last year and all his metrics check out.  Also he’s the only one other than Arraez that projection systems are saying will have over 300 BA 

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2 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I have the #1 pick in a 5x5 12 team roto, and am I crazy for leaning taking Soto?  I know he might only get 10-20 steals, but he did say he wanted to run more, and more importantly I think the other 4 categories are the safest in the draft.  I also genuinely think he has the potential to have like a 330 BA season, hell he did it last year and all his metrics check out.  Also he’s the only one other than Arraez that projection systems are saying will have over 300 BA 


He’s a lot safer than Acuna or Tatis IMO. No one would laugh at you for doing that 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/13/2021 at 2:20 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

I have the #1 pick in a 5x5 12 team roto, and am I crazy for leaning taking Soto?  I know he might only get 10-20 steals, but he did say he wanted to run more, and more importantly I think the other 4 categories are the safest in the draft.  I also genuinely think he has the potential to have like a 330 BA season, hell he did it last year and all his metrics check out.  Also he’s the only one other than Arraez that projection systems are saying will have over 300 BA 

Are you crazy for taking the best hitter in the game as number 1?

Yes, there's a .0000000001% chance that he makes it back as pick 24. Why aren't you risking that?

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Despite this recent minor injury scare, I truly believe Juan Soto is the best baseball player alive and should be redrafted #1 overall. Just go back and watch his 2019 playoff highlights and then take into account his 2020 shortened season, while keeping in mind he is only 22 years old. He seems humble, hungry, is all about winning, and has unmatched plate awareness. I took him at #2 over Tatis and Betts- just because I think his floor is .290 100/35/100/10..and that's being conservative. The only hesitancy I have is the lineup hitting around him. Yes I'm man crushing and I'll check back with you guys at the ASB when he is the #1 overall on the player rater. Soto is a once in a once in a generation star just watch

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1 hour ago, Redphan said:

The only hesitancy I have is the lineup hitting around him.

He has an elite approach, so its not likely he will start chasing. He had a .490 OBP last year which was probably a factor of being in a weak surrounding lineup. The lineup is probably a little better this year than last year, too.

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Nationals lineup definitely looks better on paper this year:

1- Robles, 2- Turner, 3- Soto, 4- Bell, 5- Schwarber

Two speed guys in front of him and two power guys behind him. The two power bats behind him both take a lot of pitches too so he will have a lot of SB opportunities this year.

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13 hours ago, Redphan said:

He seems humble, hungry, is all about winning, and has unmatched plate awarenes. 

I like the optimism, but “humble”?  Soto comes off as one of the most cocky players, and I can’t even fault him for that because he might just be the very best right now.  It will not surprise me in the slightest to see him go #1 overall in any format.  

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20 minutes ago, rotoguy74 said:

Calf issue scaring anyone away moving towards Betts or Trout?

Not at all.

I also read in that ESPN article that he's worked hard this offseason on improving his explosiveness on the base paths. Kid is just dedicated. Nice kid, doesn't drink. Lives and breathes baseball. Sign me up.

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55 minutes ago, rotoguy74 said:

Calf issue scaring anyone away moving towards Betts or Trout?

Not in the slightest.  If this was the regular season, he might have missed a game at most.  I know teams lie about injuries at times, but I believe that they were just being overly cautious.  If it was anything else, he would have gotten tests.

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1 hour ago, rotoguy74 said:

Calf issue scaring anyone away moving towards Betts or Trout?

I already have Betts and Turner in the conversation with Soto simply due to the scarcity of speed, and this calf issue (even assuming it's minor) is a tie-breaker for me. I'd still probably take him over Trout however. 

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27 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Not in the slightest.  If this was the regular season, he might have missed a game at most.  I know teams lie about injuries at times, but I believe that they were just being overly cautious.  If it was anything else, he would have gotten tests.


Calf injuries can be tricky. I remember years ago Donaldson was day-to-day and proceeded to miss a majority of the year with calf issues. And of course judge last year.

It should bump him down too much, but something to monitor for sure. 

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image.png.193d8aa6d60fddfad5ef087a08b9f653.png

Taken from the ESPN cover story article for anyone worried about his speed.

Edit: No one who reads that full article will draft anyone before Soto.

Do not read if you enjoy hating Soto.

Edited by collucho
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10 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:


Calf injuries can be tricky. I remember years ago Donaldson was day-to-day and proceeded to miss a majority of the year with calf issues. And of course judge last year.

 

As another example of a slight calf injury, in basketball, see Kevin Love. He has played maybe 4 games all year after a calf injury in December.  Nobody saw that coming and he is still having issues.  

So hopefully they are only being cautious with Soto. But calf injuries can be tricky.

 

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