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Chris Paddack 2021 Outlook


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Mr. P went from hero (9W / 140.2 IP / 3.33 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 9.79 K per 9) in 2019 to a zero (4W / 59.2 IP / 4.73 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 8.85 K per 9) in 2020. 

Ok "zero" is a bit harsh, but the 4.73 ERA is pretty brutal. This led to him not even achieving 5 IP per start in 2020 after a modest 5.4 IP per in 2019. 

Interestingly his SIERA for both seasons are pretty close (3.90 ish). Concerns about Paddack going into 2020 was centered around him being effectively a two pitch pitcher (90% of his pitches were either a FB or a change in 2019, with the rest being curve balls). Alas, this did not change much in 2020, with FB+CH making up 89% of his arsenal. The curve dropped to about 7%, and he added a cutter that was used sparingly. Perhaps being a little too predictable impacted his K-rate and ERA. Interestingly his change in velocity between the fastball and change up improved slightly in 2020. His walk rate was also a little better in 2020 than in 2019. 

His hard rate dropped in 2020, but medium went up, and soft went down, meaning that hitters were making better contact overall. 

Both seasons were helped by luck (good or bad) I think, but some of the bad was real in 2020. I think he should ditch the cutter and work the curve in more. 

In 2021 ill predict a 3.7 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9. Pretty lazy, I'm just splitting the difference between the two seasons. I think he's a nice #4 with some upside 

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On 12/12/2020 at 2:49 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

Mr. P went from hero (9W / 140.2 IP / 3.33 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 9.79 K per 9) in 2019 to a zero (4W / 59.2 IP / 4.73 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 8.85 K per 9) in 2020. 

Ok "zero" is a bit harsh, but the 4.73 ERA is pretty brutal. This led to him not even achieving 5 IP per start in 2020 after a modest 5.4 IP per in 2019. 

Interestingly his SIERA for both seasons are pretty close (3.90 ish). Concerns about Paddack going into 2020 was centered around him being effectively a two pitch pitcher (90% of his pitches were either a FB or a change in 2019, with the rest being curve balls). Alas, this did not change much in 2020, with FB+CH making up 89% of his arsenal. The curve dropped to about 7%, and he added a cutter that was used sparingly. Perhaps being a little too predictable impacted his K-rate and ERA. Interestingly his change in velocity between the fastball and change up improved slightly in 2020. His walk rate was also a little better in 2020 than in 2019. 

His hard rate dropped in 2020, but medium went up, and soft went down, meaning that hitters were making better contact overall. 

Both seasons were helped by luck (good or bad) I think, but some of the bad was real in 2020. I think he should ditch the cutter and work the curve in more. 

In 2021 ill predict a 3.7 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9. Pretty lazy, I'm just splitting the difference between the two seasons. I think he's a nice #4 with some upside 

 

I'm concerned and optimistic at the same time. His curveball got much better which is what will take him to the next level. That was always a question, and he spent the entire offseason trying to fix it. He's clearly opened the door to not being a 2-pitch pitcher...

...the problem is that his fastball sucked in 2020. I saw some articles saying that his pitch mechanics tinkering with different fastbll types screwed up his fastball and his command dropped, pitch was flat, etc. If he can attack that like the curveball, I think he can have three solid pitches and bounce back...however watching his scoial media, I don't think he's caught on to why his fastball was so bad. Clearly a gap that could be solved with analytics, but Rothschild has been known to lean away from them. I am concerned that he doesn't figure out the fastball. 

That said, I am keeping him in a 10-team keeper as my 2nd pitcher (mostly due to no other options) and hoping for the best.  We likely won't know what to expect until the 2nd or third spring training game. 

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It was such a weird year overall.  Paddack underperformed, but so did lots of my players (wah wah, I know), but you have to imagine guys like Paddack can be at least given some benefit of the doubt, similar to how we view Yellich, Altuve, Rizzo, Clevinger, Cole, and scores of other elite picks from last year.

I'm not saying "throw away 2020 stats completely because they're useless," but I am saying that we have to give them less weight, considerably, and see if other mental factors played into Paddack, or lots of other players who were worried about tons of other things going on in their lives. 

May not be too different this year, either, tbh...

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I was listening to a podcast and Eno Saris was going over command+ numbers and I think he said Paddacks were pretty bad last year. I looked all over trying to find published command+ numbers but couldn't find them.  Assume it's a subscription based thing I don't have.  Anyone know?

I'll try to go back and listen to the pod again.

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This guy does tremendous breakdowns, if you don't follow him.

 

Doesn't get into the command+ stuff I was looking for, but goes into depth about Paddack's lack of 3rd offering.  Basically guys are just spitting on his change and hammering his FB.

 

I'll be waiting till spring to see if he's developed that curve or cutter, otherwise he's an easy pass for me

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  • 2 months later...
On 12/15/2020 at 1:37 PM, countseth said:

It was such a weird year overall.  Paddack underperformed, but so did lots of my players (wah wah, I know), but you have to imagine guys like Paddack can be at least given some benefit of the doubt, similar to how we view Yellich, Altuve, Rizzo, Clevinger, Cole, and scores of other elite picks from last year.

I'm not saying "throw away 2020 stats completely because they're useless," but I am saying that we have to give them less weight, considerably, and see if other mental factors played into Paddack, or lots of other players who were worried about tons of other things going on in their lives. 

May not be too different this year, either, tbh...

Yes, but it's hard enough to trust a 2-pitch SP...to trust one that burned you in 2020 is even harder. 

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