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Chris Paddack 2021 Outlook


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Mr. P went from hero (9W / 140.2 IP / 3.33 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 9.79 K per 9) in 2019 to a zero (4W / 59.2 IP / 4.73 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 8.85 K per 9) in 2020. 

Ok "zero" is a bit harsh, but the 4.73 ERA is pretty brutal. This led to him not even achieving 5 IP per start in 2020 after a modest 5.4 IP per in 2019. 

Interestingly his SIERA for both seasons are pretty close (3.90 ish). Concerns about Paddack going into 2020 was centered around him being effectively a two pitch pitcher (90% of his pitches were either a FB or a change in 2019, with the rest being curve balls). Alas, this did not change much in 2020, with FB+CH making up 89% of his arsenal. The curve dropped to about 7%, and he added a cutter that was used sparingly. Perhaps being a little too predictable impacted his K-rate and ERA. Interestingly his change in velocity between the fastball and change up improved slightly in 2020. His walk rate was also a little better in 2020 than in 2019. 

His hard rate dropped in 2020, but medium went up, and soft went down, meaning that hitters were making better contact overall. 

Both seasons were helped by luck (good or bad) I think, but some of the bad was real in 2020. I think he should ditch the cutter and work the curve in more. 

In 2021 ill predict a 3.7 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9. Pretty lazy, I'm just splitting the difference between the two seasons. I think he's a nice #4 with some upside 

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This guy does tremendous breakdowns, if you don't follow him.   Doesn't get into the command+ stuff I was looking for, but goes into depth about Paddack's lack of 3rd offering.  Basically gu

He's shooting up my SP lost if this is true. If he's finally digging in to his fastball spin and ride issues then that means he realizes the issues. With the talent I believe he's going to fix it. 

I'm concerned and optimistic at the same time. His curveball got much better which is what will take him to the next level. That was always a question, and he spent the entire offseason trying to fix

On 12/12/2020 at 2:49 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

Mr. P went from hero (9W / 140.2 IP / 3.33 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 9.79 K per 9) in 2019 to a zero (4W / 59.2 IP / 4.73 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 8.85 K per 9) in 2020. 

Ok "zero" is a bit harsh, but the 4.73 ERA is pretty brutal. This led to him not even achieving 5 IP per start in 2020 after a modest 5.4 IP per in 2019. 

Interestingly his SIERA for both seasons are pretty close (3.90 ish). Concerns about Paddack going into 2020 was centered around him being effectively a two pitch pitcher (90% of his pitches were either a FB or a change in 2019, with the rest being curve balls). Alas, this did not change much in 2020, with FB+CH making up 89% of his arsenal. The curve dropped to about 7%, and he added a cutter that was used sparingly. Perhaps being a little too predictable impacted his K-rate and ERA. Interestingly his change in velocity between the fastball and change up improved slightly in 2020. His walk rate was also a little better in 2020 than in 2019. 

His hard rate dropped in 2020, but medium went up, and soft went down, meaning that hitters were making better contact overall. 

Both seasons were helped by luck (good or bad) I think, but some of the bad was real in 2020. I think he should ditch the cutter and work the curve in more. 

In 2021 ill predict a 3.7 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9. Pretty lazy, I'm just splitting the difference between the two seasons. I think he's a nice #4 with some upside 

 

I'm concerned and optimistic at the same time. His curveball got much better which is what will take him to the next level. That was always a question, and he spent the entire offseason trying to fix it. He's clearly opened the door to not being a 2-pitch pitcher...

...the problem is that his fastball sucked in 2020. I saw some articles saying that his pitch mechanics tinkering with different fastbll types screwed up his fastball and his command dropped, pitch was flat, etc. If he can attack that like the curveball, I think he can have three solid pitches and bounce back...however watching his scoial media, I don't think he's caught on to why his fastball was so bad. Clearly a gap that could be solved with analytics, but Rothschild has been known to lean away from them. I am concerned that he doesn't figure out the fastball. 

That said, I am keeping him in a 10-team keeper as my 2nd pitcher (mostly due to no other options) and hoping for the best.  We likely won't know what to expect until the 2nd or third spring training game. 

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It was such a weird year overall.  Paddack underperformed, but so did lots of my players (wah wah, I know), but you have to imagine guys like Paddack can be at least given some benefit of the doubt, similar to how we view Yellich, Altuve, Rizzo, Clevinger, Cole, and scores of other elite picks from last year.

I'm not saying "throw away 2020 stats completely because they're useless," but I am saying that we have to give them less weight, considerably, and see if other mental factors played into Paddack, or lots of other players who were worried about tons of other things going on in their lives. 

May not be too different this year, either, tbh...

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I was listening to a podcast and Eno Saris was going over command+ numbers and I think he said Paddacks were pretty bad last year. I looked all over trying to find published command+ numbers but couldn't find them.  Assume it's a subscription based thing I don't have.  Anyone know?

I'll try to go back and listen to the pod again.

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This guy does tremendous breakdowns, if you don't follow him.

 

Doesn't get into the command+ stuff I was looking for, but goes into depth about Paddack's lack of 3rd offering.  Basically guys are just spitting on his change and hammering his FB.

 

I'll be waiting till spring to see if he's developed that curve or cutter, otherwise he's an easy pass for me

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On 12/15/2020 at 1:37 PM, countseth said:

It was such a weird year overall.  Paddack underperformed, but so did lots of my players (wah wah, I know), but you have to imagine guys like Paddack can be at least given some benefit of the doubt, similar to how we view Yellich, Altuve, Rizzo, Clevinger, Cole, and scores of other elite picks from last year.

I'm not saying "throw away 2020 stats completely because they're useless," but I am saying that we have to give them less weight, considerably, and see if other mental factors played into Paddack, or lots of other players who were worried about tons of other things going on in their lives. 

May not be too different this year, either, tbh...

Yes, but it's hard enough to trust a 2-pitch SP...to trust one that burned you in 2020 is even harder. 

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On 2/24/2021 at 10:48 AM, Flyman75 said:

Yes, but it's hard enough to trust a 2-pitch SP...to trust one that burned you in 2020 is even harder. 

True, but given the fact that he bought into the spin rate stuff and all that this offseason to fix his fastball, I expect last season to end up being an outlier for his career.  His FB gets fixed, then he gives up a lot less HRs because last season it was spinning the wrong way and going into the barrel, and his numbers should improve greatly.  He only had a 1.22 WHIP last season, so it's obvious the FB and HRs were the biggest problems.

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On 12/15/2020 at 2:37 PM, countseth said:

It was such a weird year overall.  Paddack underperformed, but so did lots of my players (wah wah, I know), but you have to imagine guys like Paddack can be at least given some benefit of the doubt, similar to how we view Yellich, Altuve, Rizzo, Clevinger, Cole, and scores of other elite picks from last year.

I'm not saying "throw away 2020 stats completely because they're useless," but I am saying that we have to give them less weight, considerably, and see if other mental factors played into Paddack, or lots of other players who were worried about tons of other things going on in their lives. 

May not be too different this year, either, tbh...

Paddack doesn't have the track record of multiple good full seasons that the others on your list.  Paddack had one abbreviated good year (and his 3.95 FIP and 4.05 xFIP indicated his 3.33 ERA was somewhat fortunate).

As bad as Paddack was last year, he's looked even more awful in spring training so far this year.  I just don't think you can trust starting him vs. anyone right now.  If Paddack's ADP was outside the top 200, I wouldn't object to spending a late-round flier on him to see if he can bounce back.  However, Paddack is costing a top 150 pick right now.  At that price, I need to have someone I can rely on.

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3 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

True, but given the fact that he bought into the spin rate stuff and all that this offseason to fix his fastball, I expect last season to end up being an outlier for his career.  His FB gets fixed, then he gives up a lot less HRs because last season it was spinning the wrong way and going into the barrel, and his numbers should improve greatly.  He only had a 1.22 WHIP last season, so it's obvious the FB and HRs were the biggest problems.

You're not concerned by his 10.64 ERA this spring?  If anything, he looks worse than last year.

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3 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

You're not concerned by his 10.64 ERA this spring?  If anything, he looks worse than last year.

Not really.  It's Spring, plus it was a total of basically 9 IP.  His last 2 outings were bad, but his first 3 were good.  I'd be more concerned if he was still giving up HRs left and right, and his shaky command in his last 2 outings is unusual for him (even last season).

Obviously I can't say there's 0 risk with him, but I'm still optimistic.

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18 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Paddack doesn't have the track record of multiple good full seasons that the others on your list.  Paddack had one abbreviated good year (and his 3.95 FIP and 4.05 xFIP indicated his 3.33 ERA was somewhat fortunate).

Yeah people are acting like this guy has been around forever and has had proven success. It was one season and he had a couple rough months within that season (August he had a 7.50 ERA and really felt like the league caught up to him).

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Don't forget that Paddack was absolutely dominating in the minors. His 3 season WHIP was 0.805 with 230 Ks and 21 BBs. Maybe 2019 will be an outlier, but his minor league pedigree would suggest more quality seasons are coming.

 

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26 minutes ago, pan55 said:

Don't forget that Paddack was absolutely dominating in the minors. His 3 season WHIP was 0.805 with 230 Ks and 21 BBs. Maybe 2019 will be an outlier, but his minor league pedigree would suggest more quality seasons are coming.

 

The list of guys who put up outstanding minor league numbers before busting in the Majors is frighteningly long. 

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His success was based on one of the best changes in all of baseball and impeccable command of his fastball. Last year the command was gone. Paddack has had some pretty poor results this spring, but he's very likely working his fastball spin rate, and perhaps not concerned about results. It is Spring Training after all. 

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Not too worried about arguably the most dominating pitcher in the minors over the last 4 years before 2019 mlb call up where he dominated for being a rookie and all.  Big believer in him this year, and if there’s a time too try things out it’s in spring training 

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Was avoiding him in drafts this season but he fell to me in my final one so took a chance.

That said, is he even worth starting for the first period? He's a two start pitcher this extended "week" but doesn't look to have found his groove at all yet.

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On 3/31/2021 at 5:25 AM, swfcdan said:

Was avoiding him in drafts this season but he fell to me in my final one so took a chance.

That said, is he even worth starting for the first period? He's a two start pitcher this extended "week" but doesn't look to have found his groove at all yet.

The D'backs don't have a great lineup, but still I wouldn't trust Paddack enough to risk starting him right now.  I know spring training is often misleading, but considering Paddack struggled last year, him posting a 10.64 spring training ERA wasn't exactly encouraging.

Additionally he hasn't gotten more than 3 IP in any appearance in spring training, so it's probably pretty unlikely he goes the 5 IP necessary for a win even if he pitches well.

I just feel like if Paddack's implosion vs. the Cardinals in the playoffs last year had happened in the regular season, people would be talking him a lot differently right now in fantasy circles.  Instead of people saying his 4.73 ERA and 1.22 WHIP weren't that bad last year, if that postseason start vs. the Cardinals had been included in his stats, he would have a 5.40 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, which would have put him indisputably among the worst starters in baseball last year. 

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Huge red flags with Paddack: The fastball is still off. And he has zero confidence in the curve/cutter. He is essentially a one pitch guy (and the worst pitch to have as a one-pitch guy is a change-up). And most concerning.... his typically great command has been very poor though out spring and first start.

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6 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Huge red flags with Paddack: The fastball is still off. And he has zero confidence in the curve/cutter. He is essentially a one pitch guy (and the worst pitch to have as a one-pitch guy is a change-up). And most concerning.... his typically great command has been very poor though out spring and first start.

I think you really hit the nail on the head here about him essentially being a one pitch guy.  Paddack's had two very favorable matchups so far this year and gotten shelled in both.  I see zero reason to hold onto him, even with a matchup against the Pirates up next.  He had a 5.40 ERA last year (including postseason), a 10.64 ERA in spring training, and a 5.63 ERA so far this year  Paddack really should have been nothing more than a late round flier on the off chance that he could bounce back to his 2019 level, not a mid-round pick where you need a guy with a higher floor.  

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