Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Chris Paddack 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

After watching him pitch the last two games I'm strongly debating a drop (or trade). He just looks very average. I remember when he came up his lateral movement on his fastball was nasty. Now everything is coming in very straight and he doesn't seem to have control of the strike zone. I hope he figures something out soon. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 61
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

This guy does tremendous breakdowns, if you don't follow him.   Doesn't get into the command+ stuff I was looking for, but goes into depth about Paddack's lack of 3rd offering.  Basically gu

Chris Paddack hasn’t figured out his fastball yet Good analysis from Fangraphs of his spin/movement problems.

I'm concerned and optimistic at the same time. His curveball got much better which is what will take him to the next level. That was always a question, and he spent the entire offseason trying to fix

21 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

After watching him pitch the last two games I'm strongly debating a drop (or trade). He just looks very average. I remember when he came up his lateral movement on his fastball was nasty. Now everything is coming in very straight and he doesn't seem to have control of the strike zone. I hope he figures something out soon. 

It's actually the opposite. He's getting too much lateral movement; and less "rise" on his fastball. His fastball went from one of the best pitches in baseball to one of the worst. And the reason  is the new two-seam action on his fastball does not tunnel well with the change-up so hitters are just waiting on the pitch and hammering it. I also assume the two-seam action on his fastball is partially to blame for the newfound control/command problems as well. 

Paddack still has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. The fastball issues are correctable (needs to correct the spin axis), the change-up is special. And I actually quite like the potential of his cutter and curve. But as you said, there are too many ifs and too many things that need ironing out for him to be rosterable right now. 

Edited by NoHablaIngles
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

It's actually the opposite. He's getting too much lateral movement; and less "rise" on his fastball. His fastball went from one of the best pitches in baseball to one of the worst. And the reason  is the new two-seam action on his fastball does not tunnel well with the change-up so hitters are just waiting on the pitch and hammering it. I also assume the two-seam action on his fastball is partially to blame for the newfound control/command problems as well. 

Paddack still has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. The fastball issues are correctable (needs to correct the spin axis), the change-up is special. And I actually quite like the potential of his cutter and curve. But as you said, there are too many ifs and too many things that need ironing out for him to be rosterable right now. 

I don't know about you but the only pitch of his that looks to have lateral movement is his changeup which tails down and away from lefties. At the 10:34 mark you'll see him throw 2 pitches (the first two of the at bat) that have true 2 seam movement. I'd like to see more of that going forward. 

Edited by Dirty Little Birdie
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2019, when his fastball was a very positive pVal pitch, he would get 7.5 Inches of Horizontal movement. In 2020, and 2021 so far, hes getting about 10 inches. I'll try to find some video of his pitches in 2019 as a side-by-side, you'll be better able to see his "hop" on his fastball rather than "run" as we saw in the video above. 

Edited by NoHablaIngles
Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

It's actually the opposite. He's getting too much lateral movement; and less "rise" on his fastball. His fastball went from one of the best pitches in baseball to one of the worst. And the reason  is the new two-seam action on his fastball does not tunnel well with the change-up so hitters are just waiting on the pitch and hammering it. I also assume the two-seam action on his fastball is partially to blame for the newfound control/command problems as well. 

Paddack still has the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. The fastball issues are correctable (needs to correct the spin axis), the change-up is special. And I actually quite like the potential of his cutter and curve. But as you said, there are too many ifs and too many things that need ironing out for him to be rosterable right now. 

I wonder if Paddack gets sent to the minors to iron out these issues once Lamet returns instead of Morejon.  The Padres also have MacKenzie Gore waiting in the minors as well.  Considering the Padres are spending money like crazy and have championship aspirations this year, I think Paddack is not long for the majors this year.

Long-term, I do think there is still some hope for Paddack.  To be honest, his initial success and then his dramatic fall reminds me a lot of Roy Halladay.  Both Paddack and Halladay were super hyped prospects who came up and had a lot of success their first year.  I remember after positing a 10.64 ERA his second year, in 2000 Halladay fell all the way back down to Single A, totally reworked his mechanics, came back up late in 2001, and was dominant for the next decade.

Will Paddack be able to rebound like Halladay?  Will he be strong enough mentally to get through this?  Time will tell.  He's still young and the potential and raw stuff is still there as you mentioned, but right now he's one of the worst pitchers in baseball and in my opinion he definitely needs to be sent back to the minors and totally overhaul things away from the pressure of the major leagues like Halladay did..  

Edited by FootballFan101
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

I wonder if Paddack gets sent to the minors to iron out these issues once Lamet returns instead of Morejon.  The Padres also have MacKenzie Gore waiting in the minors as well.  Considering the Padres are spending money like crazy and have championship aspirations this year, I think Paddack is not long for the majors this year.

Long-term, I do think there is still some hope for Paddack.  To be honest, his initial success and then his dramatic fall reminds me a lot of Roy Halladay.  Both Paddack and Halladay were super hyped prospects who came up and had a lot of success their first year.  I remember after positing a 10.64 ERA his second year, in 2000 Halladay fell all the way back down to Single A, totally reworked his mechanics, came back up late in 2001, and was dominant for the next decade.

Will Paddack be able to rebound like Halladay?  Will he be strong enough mentally to get through this?  Time will tell.  He's still young and the potential and raw stuff is still there as you mentioned, but right now he's one of the worst pitchers in baseball and in my opinion he definitely needs to be sent back to the minors and totally overhaul things away from the pressure of the major leagues like Halladay did..  

it’s a neat comparison, but in the end Roy had two things that we haven’t seen from Paddack yet .

Halladay had several plus pitches. 
Paddack has one elite pitch and a loose relationship with a few others. 
 

But here is we’re everything separates. Halladay had one of the highest baseball IQ’s I’ve ever seen. You cannot develop that by being sent down. You either have it or you don’t and Roy was one of the greatest masters I’ve ever seen. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Smallball said:

it’s a neat comparison, but in the end Roy had two things that we haven’t seen from Paddack yet .

Halladay had several plus pitches. 
Paddack has one elite pitch and a loose relationship with a few others. 
 

But here is we’re everything separates. Halladay had one of the highest baseball IQ’s I’ve ever seen. You cannot develop that by being sent down. You either have it or you don’t and Roy was one of the greatest masters I’ve ever seen. 

I'm not saying I expect Paddack to rebound like Halladay.  Does Paddack have the stuff to be an elite pitcher like Halladay was?  No, probably not.  Even Paddack's 2019 season was more a product of good luck more than exceptional skill (his FIP and xFIP both indicated that his ERA should have been around 4).

 The only comparison I'm making is that to in order to resurrect his career at all, I think Paddack needs to go to the minors and rework everything away from the pressure of the major leagues just like Halladay.   Paddack is simply put one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now, and he needs to correct the issues with his fastball and he needs to develop at least one more decent pitch.   I don't think Paddack will ever be an elite pitcher like Halladay, but I think he could potentially rebound and still have a solid major league career if he's sent down and can correct these things.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, whips02 said:

Is he broken? Or is there buy low opportunity?

 

seems as if most people think his FB is broken, but it is still early right?

I wouldn't bother. I do think he's broken, he had an entire offseason to work on the issues he had in 2020, and looks like he changed nothing . There's surely better upside options on your WW. I dropped Paddack almost 2 weeks ago in my league & he's still sitting there.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Resident A-hole said:

I wouldn't bother. I do think he's broken, he had an entire offseason to work on the issues he had in 2020, and looks like he changed nothing . There's surely better upside options on your WW. I dropped Paddack almost 2 weeks ago in my league & he's still sitting there.

Must be a solid 8 team league you got there.

Edit: Maybe a 6 team? Dropping a guy that is going in the first 10 rounds the first week of the season and having no one pick him up is extremely hard to believe.

Edited by collucho
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The only hope is he makes adjustments in season IMO. Things will probably have to get worse before they get better to force any change. Seems way too stubborn with not wanting to throw the curve. [...] 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

The only hope is he makes adjustments in season IMO. Things will probably have to get worse before they get better to force any change. Seems way too stubborn with not wanting to throw the curve. [...] 

I dont think the issue is stubbornness. He's stated a willingness to learn this off-season. I think the issue is confidence. 

The reason he isn't throwing the curve is because his previous curve grip and arm slot was the impetus to him losing spin axis on his fastball. More likely, he's ditched the curve and cutter to fully focus on trying to get his fastball back to 2019.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

I dont know if hes long for the rotation

Lamet returns tomorrow and Tingler said today Weathers is going to get more starts and be stretched out

 

 

It's probably best for his development to go down to work on some things. And it looks like Weathers is the real deal (cant forget about gore either) so the padres have some options here

Link to post
Share on other sites

He's been working on a 3rd pitch for almost three years now. Ceiling is good Tyson Ross, floor is bad Tyson Ross. As fantasy goes, seems like he'd be a sweet closer. Don't tell that to him tho

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/19/2021 at 11:14 PM, Golden Spikes said:

I dont know if hes long for the rotation

Lamet returns tomorrow and Tingler said today Weathers is going to get more starts and be stretched out

 

Have to love the way the Padres essentially conceded last night's game before it even started, giving both Tatis and Machado a day off.  Given that the matchup matchup was Paddack vs. Corbin Burnes, I can't say I blame them.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Have to love the way the Padres essentially conceded last night's game before it even started, giving both Tatis and Machado a day off.  Given that the matchup matchup was Paddack vs. Corbin Burnes, I can't say I blame them.

Tatis has been a beast so far this season.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What do we make of his start last night? Velo was up, Spin rate seemed better and stat line was surprisingly nice. Besides the one blow up inning. 

Edited by BronxBozo
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, BronxBozo said:

What do we make of his start last night? Velo was up, Spin rate seemed better and stat line was surprisingly nice. Besides the one blow up inning. 

I was encouraged. His command was the best it's been all year. If he can get back to locating his fastball well he'll at least be decent.

Lamet injury probably guarantees him some more time in the rotation to see if he can build on that.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I was encouraged. His command was the best it's been all year. If he can get back to locating his fastball well he'll at least be decent.

Lamet injury probably guarantees him some more time in the rotation to see if he can build on that.

 

Do you think the Lamet injury means that we could see MacKenzie Gore soon?

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Do you think the Lamet injury means that we could see MacKenzie Gore soon?

 

Could be. But I think they're more comfortable turning to Weathers first.

And I'm not so sure this one start means Paddack is on the right track. He's still two pitch, and his fastball is still not where it needs to be. His command was better yesterday which is encouraging, but still worse than what we've come to expect from him. 

This is going to be an interesting situation to monitor over the next few weeks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...