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PJ Washington 2020-2021 Outlook


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9 hours ago, MWon said:

Not really sure where you're getting Top 75 for last month. 

Using Bballmonster, he's #102 for total value for the last month.  The problem is that his ranking was buffered by blocks (at 20 total, he was #11 for overall blocks), and boards (at 98 total, he was just outside Top 30), but his efficiency was absolutely dreadful, at less than 41% FG, 76% FT, and 32 TOs (2.5 tpg).  

The other thing is that he seems to be inconsistent to the point where it's not just a game-by-game basis, but a matchup basis if you play 9cat H2H as well; for example, he was extremely good last week for overall counting stats, BUT that also came at the cost of basically torpedoing your efficiency cats.  At 31% FG, 43% FT, 11 TOs (2.75 tpg), and 30 pts (6 ppg) last week, it's debatable whether he's helping you more or hurting you when he was active last week.  

I think what I'm trying to say is that, to your point, we're not all fantasy newbs who go bananas over points.  The reason why we're souring on him is that his counting stats comes with some pretty considerable hits to %s and TOs (and yeah, he doesn't score much either); it'd actually be fine if he were only going 0/4 and giving us a 7/5/1//1.3/1.3 line otherwise, but he's bricking shots with some volume now, meaning the FG% hits are starting to add up. 

And also to your point regarding his role and minutes, it's concerning that Biyombo and Zeller's minutes are both ramping up, pushing PJW closer to 26-28 minutes than 32.  PJW plays C much better and while the former two getting a few extra minutes doesn't seem like much, it's problematic because them taking about 36 minutes combined (or more) at C means PJW is squashed at PF, where he's in competition with Hayward/Miles.  Your 32 mpg also comes with the caveats that he's gotten some 40+ mpg games, one without Zeller, one OT, and one against a super-small Lakers squad without a C.

Tomorrow's game (tonight's) will be concerning, since I'm predicting some bad foul trouble against the huge frontcourt of Sabonis/Turner, if the former plays.  

It doesn't help that 3 out of their last 7 games have been blowout losses. He's actually been very good against the Pacers in his last 2 matchups this season 

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He has been inconsistent though and losing LaMelo has had an impact. But I would try to hold, Hornets have a great playoff schedule 4-4-4-4 ( includes 4 Tuesday games and 2 Thursday games)

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What a difference two days makes. Took a flier near draft's end (possibly because of this conversation, so thanks for that). The stretch-5 rumors are legit and yesterday he put up a baby draymond line

so that's a yes 😂

Pretty sure when Forrest Gump was blabbering on about that box of chocolates, it was actually a metaphor for our man PJ

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10 hours ago, MWon said:

Not really sure where you're getting Top 75 for last month. 

Using Bballmonster, he's #102 for total value for the last month.  The problem is that his ranking was buffered by blocks (at 20 total, he was #11 for overall blocks), and boards (at 98 total, he was just outside Top 30), but his efficiency was absolutely dreadful, at less than 41% FG, 76% FT, and 32 TOs (2.5 tpg).  

The other thing is that he seems to be inconsistent to the point where it's not just a game-by-game basis, but a matchup basis if you play 9cat H2H as well; for example, he was extremely good last week for overall counting stats, BUT that also came at the cost of basically torpedoing your efficiency cats.  At 31% FG, 43% FT, 11 TOs (2.75 tpg), and 30 pts (6 ppg) last week, it's debatable whether he's helping you more or hurting you when he was active last week.  

I think what I'm trying to say is that, to your point, we're not all fantasy newbs who go bananas over points.  The reason why we're souring on him is that his counting stats comes with some pretty considerable hits to %s and TOs (and yeah, he doesn't score much either); it'd actually be fine if he were only going 0/4 and giving us a 7/5/1//1.3/1.3 line otherwise, but he's bricking shots with some volume now, meaning the FG% hits are starting to add up. 

And also to your point regarding his role and minutes, it's concerning that Biyombo and Zeller's minutes are both ramping up, pushing PJW closer to 26-28 minutes than 32.  PJW plays C much better and while the former two getting a few extra minutes doesn't seem like much, it's problematic because them taking about 36 minutes combined (or more) at C means PJW is squashed at PF, where he's in competition with Hayward/Miles.  Your 32 mpg also comes with the caveats that he's gotten some 40+ mpg games, one without Zeller, one OT, and one against a super-small Lakers squad without a C.

Tomorrow's game (tonight's) will be concerning, since I'm predicting some bad foul trouble against the huge frontcourt of Sabonis/Turner, if the former plays.  

Your points are valid, though I'm not sure how averaging 32mpg over past two weeks and 31 over past month can be spun as "pushing toward 26-28". Yes, there were a couple OT games, but there were also a couple blowouts where he sat the 4th quarter.

I base my top 75 claim off his current PR for the past month which is a strong 5.52 on espn (though over the past two weeks it has fallen off). In that time he's averaging 7.6 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.5 blks, 1.4 triples - an extremely difficult combination to find on waivers.

Beyond that, this notion of him crushing percentages is overstated - he had a few bad games recently but over the past month he's 76% from the line (1.6 fta) and 41% from the field (9.2 fga), neither of which are detrimental due to low volume. I'm in 8-cat so TO aren't a consideration

All this to say that unless you assume PJ's going to shoot badly at high volume ROS, he's a clear hold. Zeller and Biyombo haven't usurped his playing time and, with Lamelo gone, the upside for a strong finish is there. Nice buy-low window

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That's fair.  I think we'll have to agree to disagree on "low volume" since 9.2 FGA is more prohibitive on 41% shooting, especially since his FGA increases and his FG% drops even further on a week-week basis rather than monthly.  And in 8-cat, he bounces about 20-30 spots due to the 2.5 TOs not being an issue, so yes, he's hovering around 75 otherwise overall. I usually think the general preference around here for posters is 9-cat, however.

As for "clear hold" that really depends.  I usually steer away from trying to create an objective argument based on subjective experiences, because sure, playing a 8-cat, 20 team H2H league with a punt FG% strat and a slew of extra scorers on your team - PJW is probably still golden.  But in a 9-cat 10 team roto less-competitive league without much scoring or additional % sinks, PJW could definitely be replaced by another wire add or even a streamer.  

And ehhh, again, I would point you to the increased roles of the Martin twins, and increased minutes allotments of Zeller and Biyombo.  They might only get about 2-4 minutes each more per game than a few weeks ago, but an 4-8-minute addition to the C spot is huge for PJW, since he's really the only other C on the roster and who benefits most from playing that position.  Them playing more slides him over to PF, where Hayward and Miles also play.  And it also seems like the Martin twins (or Monk when healthy) may start to shake up minutes too.

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On 4/3/2021 at 1:22 PM, mattshhh said:

Hayward out 4+ weeks, so dropping PJ shouldn't be a consideration anymore

Tonight ... Probably doesn't help your argument here.

I'm in agreement overall that Hayward's absence SHOULD open up his 30 minutes or so and trickle down to PJW, at first glance.  However, the big problem is that, as tonight's outing shows, Borrego's very willing to hit his bench for SFs and Cs, which as I said earlier, squeezes PJW further into that PF spot, where he's less comfortable.  Sure, I get tonight was a blowout, but as Dezed already referenced, even PJW apologists shouldn't be blaming PJW's play and minutes on that constantly.  Hell, even if one wanted to use that as an eternal excuse, then PJW owners should just expect him to suck during blowouts.

My point isn't that PJW is an auto-drop or whatever.  I'm holding him myself if I can.  But I'm saying he's not a must-own, must-hold player anymore, if he were at all.  Losing Hayward doesn't guarantee PJW more minutes, nor good/better play; we'll have to see how the rotations shake out. It was hardly an auspicious look tonight though.  

On 4/2/2021 at 1:41 PM, DezedandConfused said:

It doesn't help that 3 out of their last 7 games have been blowout losses. He's actually been very good against the Pacers in his last 2 matchups this season 

He has been inconsistent though and losing LaMelo has had an impact. But I would try to hold, Hornets have a great playoff schedule 4-4-4-4 ( includes 4 Tuesday games and 2 Thursday games)

I guess the Pacers' game was ... Okay?  A Sabonis-less matchup was a relief, but given that, I still expected slightly better in hitting the boards for PJW.  Otherwise, the stocks and trey were fine, and even though, as usual, he couldn't hit his shots or hold onto the ball, at least that line was serviceable.

As for his PO schedule, that's one of the few bright spots in holding him now.  The problem is actually getting there.  Chances are that, if you're not a high seed or playing against a weak owner against this last week or two (or punting a bunch of cats already), PJW probably hurt you more than he helped.  If you're fighting for a PO position, I really wouldn't blame an owner for simply cutting him, especially because not only is he ice-cold, but his next week is a 3-gamer, and the week after is against 3 potential contenders (Lakers, Nets, Blazers). Risking your PO spot by stashing a real risk (who can either drop a dud or trash your cats, or both during a crucial matchup) is at best a gamble and at worst a newb mistake.

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16 minutes ago, MWon said:

I guess the Pacers' game was ... Okay?  A Sabonis-less matchup was a relief, but given that, I still expected slightly better in hitting the boards for PJW.  Otherwise, the stocks and trey were fine, and even though, as usual, he couldn't hit his shots or hold onto the ball, at least that line was serviceable.

As for his PO schedule, that's one of the few bright spots in holding him now.  The problem is actually getting there.  Chances are that, if you're not a high seed or playing against a weak owner against this last week or two (or punting a bunch of cats already), PJW probably hurt you more than he helped.  If you're fighting for a PO position, I really wouldn't blame an owner for simply cutting him, especially because not only is he ice-cold, but his next week is a 3-gamer, and the week after is against 3 potential contenders (Lakers, Nets, Blazers). Risking your PO spot by stashing a real risk (who can either drop a dud or trash your cats, or both during a crucial matchup) is at best a gamble and at worst a newb mistake.

What do you mean Sabonis-less matchup, he played in that game. Also, Sabonis is a great rebounder but an average defender. Yeah of course it will depend on league standings especially if you're fighting for a playoff spot (basically players 10-13 are expendable). I was just stating the fact that the Hornets have a great PO schedule and I value players who can contribute across the board stats, especially when they're scoring is up and down. I also don't get why Borego continues to start Biyombo ahead of Zeller, they're a better team both offensively and defensively with Zeller on the court compared to Biyombo. -_- 

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5 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

What do you mean Sabonis-less matchup, he played in that game. Also, Sabonis is a great rebounder but an average defender. Yeah of course it will depend on league standings especially if you're fighting for a playoff spot (basically players 10-13 are expendable). I was just stating the fact that the Hornets have a great PO schedule and I value players who can contribute across the board stats, especially when they're scoring is up and down. I also don't get why Borego continues to start Biyombo ahead of Zeller, they're a better team both offensively and defensively with Zeller on the court compared to Biyombo. -_- 

haha, yeah, I was looking at his Saturday game (which he missed).  He got hurt Friday. My bad.

I already alluded to it here prior to Fri's game, but I wasn't worried about PJW's offense vs Sabonis' defense; I was worried that Sabonis' offense and rebounding would throw PJW into quick foul trouble.

Agreed, PJW's got an incredibly unique skill-set.  It's always fun to have a glue guy who can contribute basically every counting stat in meaningful ways when he's clicking (boards, assists, stocks, treys).  The problem is that when his offense is off, it REALLY hurts him, because he either drops a huge neg in efficiency cats, or a dud ... or both.  Losing two playmakers in Ball and Hayward is far more detrimental than many of us think.  Yes, PJW should theoretically get more minutes.  But it also takes away easy buckets from him, and forces him into a tertiary playmaker role as well (not his strong suit), which causes poor shooting and more turnovers.

I've got a friend who's favorite player is Biyombo (don't ask).  Even HE thinks Biyombo is barely a bench player, let alone a starter.  Zeller should be starting, with PJW as a staggered small-ball C.

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26 minutes ago, MWon said:

Tonight ... Probably doesn't help your argument here.

I'm in agreement overall that Hayward's absence SHOULD open up his 30 minutes or so and trickle down to PJW, at first glance.  However, the big problem is that, as tonight's outing shows, Borrego's very willing to hit his bench for SFs and Cs, which as I said earlier, squeezes PJW further into that PF spot, where he's less comfortable.  Sure, I get tonight was a blowout, but as Dezed already referenced, even PJW apologists shouldn't be blaming PJW's play and minutes on that constantly.  Hell, even if one wanted to use that as an eternal excuse, then PJW owners should just expect him to suck during blowouts.

My point isn't that PJW is an auto-drop or whatever.  I'm holding him myself if I can.  But I'm saying he's not a must-own, must-hold player anymore, if he were at all.  Losing Hayward doesn't guarantee PJW more minutes, nor good/better play; we'll have to see how the rotations shake out. It was hardly an auspicious look tonight though.  

I guess the Pacers' game was ... Okay?  A Sabonis-less matchup was a relief, but given that, I still expected slightly better in hitting the boards for PJW.  Otherwise, the stocks and trey were fine, and even though, as usual, he couldn't hit his shots or hold onto the ball, at least that line was serviceable.

As for his PO schedule, that's one of the few bright spots in holding him now.  The problem is actually getting there.  Chances are that, if you're not a high seed or playing against a weak owner against this last week or two (or punting a bunch of cats already), PJW probably hurt you more than he helped.  If you're fighting for a PO position, I really wouldn't blame an owner for simply cutting him, especially because not only is he ice-cold, but his next week is a 3-gamer, and the week after is against 3 potential contenders (Lakers, Nets, Blazers). Risking your PO spot by stashing a real risk (who can either drop a dud or trash your cats, or both during a crucial matchup) is at best a gamble and at worst a newb mistake.

One blowout means nothing. The argument for holding PJW is simple - he was the 13th ranked PF (which is roughly 2nd best PF on a roster value) before his unit lost two usage monsters. All season he's been a better value than he gets credit for, and that holds true during his mega slump (thanks to serviceable defensive stats). You're allowing recency bias to draw conclusions about a player's future outlook even though his potential moving forward isn't accurately represented by what he was doing pre-injuries.

It's not about getting a few extra minutes, it's who has the ball in their hands. Here are all the stats up for grabs:

Hayward - 20 pts, 6 rebs, 4 ast

Lamelo - 16 pts, 6 rebs, 6 ast

That's a combined 36 pts, 12 rebs and 10 asts which won't all go to their replacements. Neither of us knows how they'll be distributed among the team, but PJW contributes to all 3 categories and I consider it irresponsible to drop a player suddenly facing their best usage situation of the season before a strong playoff schedule.

As i've said, his unique skillset is nearly impossible to find on waivers, so unless your team is imbalanced in a way that would benefit from swapping him for a specialist, there's probably someone else on all our rosters who will have a worse ROS. He might continue struggling with efficiency, but will impact the game everywhere and in possibly greater volume than before.

If i'm dropping anyone, it's someone whose role I expect to diminish, whereas his stands to grow. Now's the time to shed vets, not young blood

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33 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

One blowout means nothing. The argument for holding PJW is simple - he was the 13th ranked PF (which is roughly 2nd best PF on a roster value) before his unit lost two usage monsters. All season he's been a better value than he gets credit for, and that holds true during his mega slump (thanks to serviceable defensive stats). You're allowing recency bias to draw conclusions about a player's future outlook even though his potential moving forward isn't accurately represented by what he was doing pre-injuries.

I already assumed you'd bring the blowout argument up, which is why I addressed that already in the post above yours.

As for your argument that I'm the victim of recency bias, I think that's partly true - that's exactly the point here - I AM looking at his present/recent play. You're talking his overall and long-term performance, which may not be important right now.  I've already stated this, but I'll say it again: He's cold NOW, and if he continues to be cold, it doesn't matter how hot he becomes in a week or two when you're in danger of missing the playoffs.  It's incredibly easy to say "ahhh, just stash/bench him" when you're locked into a high seed or something.  It's another thing to deliberate with, "Well, I'm 9th seed and trailing the 8th by 5 games ... Do I keep a struggling PJW with 3 games and cross my fingers for these next two weeks,  or drop him for hot CoJo with 5 games (and then stream that spot later)?".  Sure, it's one analogy, but this is the reality in competitive leagues especially at this time. 

You're also assuming he continues to perform as he was prior to his slump.  It would be foolhardy to ignore why he's possibly struggling now; I've stated a few times already how Borrego's willingness to give his Cs and bench more run affects PJW's minutes.  I've also explained why losing Ball and Hayward is/might be damaging to PJW's numbers rather than being a beneficial aspect - in fact, that's why I think there's a disconnect here.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to think, like many, that PJW will improve without Ball/Hayward. I think that he actually suffers more (read my previous post if you want me to explain that); even if his counting stats and/or minutes improve (which they haven't), his efficiency obviates those boosts anyway.  Therefore, even if you're arguing to PJW's ROS outlook, I'd contend that it's still murky at best anyway.

34 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

It's not about getting a few extra minutes, it's who has the ball in their hands. Here are all the stats up for grabs:

Hayward - 20 pts, 6 rebs, 4 ast

Lamelo - 16 pts, 6 rebs, 6 ast

That's a combined 36 pts, 12 rebs and 10 asts which won't all go to their replacements. Neither of us knows how they'll be distributed among the team, but PJW contributes to all 3 categories and I consider it irresponsible to drop a player suddenly facing their best usage situation of the season before a strong playoff schedule.

If i'm dropping anyone, it's someone whose role I expect to diminish, whereas his stands to grow. Now's the time to shed vets, not young blood

Your numbers logic doesn't make sense. Those missing numbers don't just get allocated to another player, lol.  No team has an allotment of points, boards, and assists that they divvy out.  Minutes?  Sure, there's 240 guaranteed minutes in every regulation game (48 min x 5 positions) to be divided out as the coach sees fit.  But if a star/stat-stuffing player gets injured, the entire team suffers and their overall stats are diminished.  Otherwise, players - from stars to benchwarmers - would be interchangeable to coaches if the team was guaranteed to get a certain amount of stats anyway.  Not only do we not know how cats will be distributed among players, but we also don't know IF they will be either.  All we can definitively know is that minutes will be redistributed among other players if a starter is hurt.

As far as a strong playoff schedule, again, you gotta MAKE the playoffs first.  He could have a 5/5/5/5 playoff schedule and I'd still drop him if I believed his spot would be better served with a streamer.  Obviously, yes, if you're in a 12-teamer, there might (and likely will) be someone worse on your team overall.  But as I've said already, a running-hot player like CoJo with a 5 game week might be better than an efficiency-hampering cold player like PJW with a 3 game week, esp if you're fighting for that playoff spot.  It's gonna be a decision relative to one's situation, and to say definitively that something is "irresponsible" is ignorant to subjective context.

51 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

As i've said, his unique skillset is nearly impossible to find on waivers, so unless your team is imbalanced in a way that would benefit from swapping him for a specialist, there's probably someone else on all our rosters who will have a worse ROS. He might continue struggling with efficiency, but will impact the game everywhere and in possibly greater volume than before.

Nobody's doubting his skillset.  In fact, I posted about this right above your post, saying the basically the same thing.  But the efficiency isn't something to be ignored, nor are his duds, because "greater volume" might mean he shoots or passes more ... which means he might brick shots or turn over the ball more than he gives you points or assists.  And as stated, "worse ROS" means we're discussing two different things. 

My point is and was never to dump him. It's that, if you're in the position to hold him, do so (and probably bench him until/unless he gets hot again). If you're not, then cut him.  Also, as a fellow PJW owner, I'm absolutely rooting for him.  I WANT him to do better, and I hope that he does.  I believe that he'll likely bounce back, since an inconsistent player like PJW has peaks as well as valleys.  What I'm arguing against is not whether or not PJW is a good player, nor whether to cut him now.  What I'm arguing against is the ignorant opinion that he's undroppable.  When one says that, they're actually saying "he's undroppable for my league and my team, with my WW, in my specific situation, and not yours." I think that needs to be clarified and more carefully conveyed.

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I'm sorry, didn't mean to come on strong or tell anyone what to do or not do. Everyone's team needs are different. I view an outpouring of available usage for a young player on a contending team as a dream scenario for fantasy - if you don't see it that way, drop his @$$

The reason I went after you may also have to do with a post I keep seeing at the top of WCJ's thread from a few games ago when you had a similarly alarmist take without enough of a sample size to fairly draw conclusions. Opportunity is everything. Moving into a situation with less competition for usage gave Wendell an opportunity to be peak Al Horford, so I don't think it's unfair to expect PJ to command more touches as the hornets' third highest remaining source of APG (and only 0.7 below Rozier).

Don't forget, he's only a month removed from his best stretch of the season Lack of patience is this forum's biggest weakness. Let's rise above it ❤️ 

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Dude what the actual bollocks is wrong with this guy's shooting?

I just checked the game logs and he's shot under 50% in 11 out of his last 12 games.

Dude is literally shooting 36% over the last month and killing me in FG%.

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Just now, alexstr said:

Dude what the actual bollocks is wrong with this guy's shooting?

I just checked the game logs and he's shot under 50% in 11 out of his last 12 games.

Dude is literally shooting 36% over the last month and killing me in FG%.

His shot selection is terrible

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Excellent game last night what do we think of him ROS? Maybe the rest from missing a few games has him recharged he looked really good last night although it was against a team of pylons on d

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With Hayward, Monk, Graham and Melo out, I think PJ Washington will improve on his stats by way of more usage. The cool thing is that he contributes across all categories.

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