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Yordan Alvarez 2021 Outlook


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Yordan "old knees" Alvarez wasn't able to play much at all in 2020 due to a patella tear in one of his knees. He went arthroscopic surgery back in August on that knee, while also having general "clean-up" on the other...he is expected to make a full recovery and be ready for spring training. Everyone will have their eyes on Alvarez this spring to see how he is moving. It's certainly possible Alvarez has bad genetic knee issues that will never allow him to play consistently. However, I personally am in the Alvarez fan-boy club. I believe he suffered a knee injury years ago, going undiagnosed for a long time. It's known that he played all of 2019 with this issue, but still put up god-tier numbers in AAA and the Majors. Alvarez has immense talent, that is indisputable, it's purely a question of health. Fingers crossed we're looking at the new age David Ortiz.

 

If healthy: 600PAs   .300/.400/.600    40  100/100+

and that's not even his ceiling, FREAK hitter right here. 

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On a scale of purple to orange I would say it's roughly at lavender.  

For health and safety reasons of opposing pitchers. 

Again, is there some reason why all the Yordan projections in this thread are limited to pre All-Star break?

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1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

Yordan "old knees" Alvarez wasn't able to play much at all in 2020 due to a patella tear in one of his knees. He went arthroscopic surgery back in August on that knee, while also having general "clean-up" on the other...he is expected to make a full recovery and be ready for spring training. Everyone will have their eyes on Alvarez this spring to see how he is moving. It's certainly possible Alvarez has bad genetic knee issues that will never allow him to play consistently. However, I personally am in the Alvarez fan-boy club. I believe he suffered a knee injury years ago, going undiagnosed for a long time. It's known that he played all of 2019 with this issue, but still put up god-tier numbers in AAA and the Majors. Alvarez has immense talent, that is indisputable, it's purely a question of health. Fingers crossed we're looking at the new age David Ortiz.

 

If healthy: 600PAs   .300/.400/.600    40  100/100+

and that's not even his ceiling, FREAK hitter right here. 

 

I want to think he had an injury that went undiagnosed for a long time and that he'll be good to go now, but that he had general "clean-up" on the other makes me think there's still something to the genetic issues.

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6 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Yordan "old knees" Alvarez wasn't able to play much at all in 2020 due to a patella tear in one of his knees. He went arthroscopic surgery back in August on that knee, while also having general "clean-up" on the other...he is expected to make a full recovery and be ready for spring training. Everyone will have their eyes on Alvarez this spring to see how he is moving. It's certainly possible Alvarez has bad genetic knee issues that will never allow him to play consistently. However, I personally am in the Alvarez fan-boy club. I believe he suffered a knee injury years ago, going undiagnosed for a long time. It's known that he played all of 2019 with this issue, but still put up god-tier numbers in AAA and the Majors. Alvarez has immense talent, that is indisputable, it's purely a question of health. Fingers crossed we're looking at the new age David Ortiz.

 

If healthy: 600PAs   .300/.400/.600    40  100/100+

and that's not even his ceiling, FREAK hitter right here. 

So prime Nelly Cruz? I'm in.

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One thing to consider for an argument against him having genetic issues is lets say he did have a undiagnosed knee injury. What is proven is that when people have long term injuries the body will compensate for that injury. He could have shifted the load to the other when whenever possible causing light damage to that knee. Hence we get a "clean up" job on that knee. Just my 2c on another possible reason he had the other knee touched up. Don't forget the other thing he has going for him is him youth. Dude is not 55 trying to bounce back for knee work. Home boy is 23. I buying on this guy all over the place. 

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Dude has Altuve/Tucker/Bregman batting in front of him.  120 RBIs is going to happen, 35+ bombs is going to happen, so for me everything comes down to the K%.  If he can keep it in the low 20s and keep his BB% up around 15%, he'll hit close to .300.  God forbid he cut the K% down further and we've got vintage Miguel Cabrera with more power.  👀

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2 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Dude has Altuve/Tucker/Bregman batting in front of him.  120 RBIs is going to happen, 35+ bombs is going to happen, so for me everything comes down to the K%.  If he can keep it in the low 20s and keep his BB% up around 15%, he'll hit close to .300.  God forbid he cut the K% down further and we've got vintage Miguel Cabrera with more power.  👀

It’s really just the health. Most know he’s a good hitter . 

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On 12/26/2020 at 9:14 AM, StartYourStuds said:

Yordan won’t be leaving my utility spot for another 10 years. It’s painfully obvious this is an elite hitter and excited to see a full year of good health in 2021.

He won't leave your utility spot except to go to your DL spot.

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On 12/26/2020 at 8:14 AM, StartYourStuds said:

Yordan won’t be leaving my utility spot for another 10 years. It’s painfully obvious this is an elite hitter and excited to see a full year of good health in 2021.

He hasn't had a single season with anything close to a full season of ABs.  That - plus bad knees at *23* - means you aren't likely to see both of a full year and good health

Still have him for more than 30 HRs fwiw.

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12 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Anyone worried that a big part of his success in 2019 was attributable to the cheating scandal?

He was ripping it up in AAA before his promotion, he was great in AA as well. Dude is as real as it gets. You saying that he cheated in 2019 pure speculation on your part.

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1 hour ago, UberRebel said:

Anyone worried that a big part of his success in 2019 was attributable to the cheating scandal?

 

1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

He was ripping it up in AAA before his promotion, he was great in AA as well. Dude is as real as it gets. You saying that he cheated in 2019 pure speculation on your part.

 

I forgot when whether it was on this board or one of my friends were talking about Yordan being a cheater, and i said the same thing.... he raked everywhere. Then that person said the Astros were probably cheating in AA/AAA to prepare for it in MLB.  I cant fathom to explain how stupid that statement is. 

 

Yordan is a good hitter. Had a 1k+ OPS on the road in 2019. I'm guessing there's a good chance he wont pace for what he was in 2019, but he's still a very good hitter.

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On 1/5/2021 at 10:11 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

I forgot when whether it was on this board or one of my friends were talking about Yordan being a cheater, and i said the same thing.... he raked everywhere. Then that person said the Astros were probably cheating in AA/AAA to prepare for it in MLB.  I cant fathom to explain how stupid that statement is. 

 

Yordan is a good hitter. Had a 1k+ OPS on the road in 2019. I'm guessing there's a good chance he wont pace for what he was in 2019, but he's still a very good hitter.

 

People in general have no clue in regards to the Astros and how good that line up is without having to cheat. Good fantasy GM's will, and they'll reap the benefits. Yordan won't need Brantley and Springer or a trash can to make his ADP a steal. It could also be GM speak, but Click has said they'd like to have Alvarez play some outfield and thus far, haven't done anything to address a sparse position. The Astros hitting skill shouldn't frighten fantasy gm's away, but you'll probably get them at a bargain.

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6 minutes ago, Oogleflorp said:

With Yordan getting some playing time at first how likely is it that he could get 1B eligibilty?

On a scale of purple to orange I would say it's roughly at lavender.  

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48 minutes ago, Oogleflorp said:

With Yordan getting some playing time at first how likely is it that he could get 1B eligibilty?

Depends on your platform. If it's Yahoo, probably a pretty good bet eventually. 

 

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On 2/9/2021 at 2:42 PM, tekashi26ix said:

Yordan only hits dingers he can walk the bases for all I care. 40 HR book it. 

Why are you limiting your projections to pre All-Star break?  

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8 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Depends on your platform. If it's Yahoo, probably a pretty good bet eventually. 

I'd be shocked if he did anything outside of DH for the first month or two. Maybe he will get there, but even in Yahoo it will probably take a while. He's already OF in Yahoo so it doesn't matter much anyway. It will be tough for him to get any eligibility outside of UTIL in other formats.

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10 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

I'd be shocked if he did anything outside of DH for the first month or two. Maybe he will get there, but even in Yahoo it will probably take a while. He's already OF in Yahoo so it doesn't matter much anyway. It will be tough for him to get any eligibility outside of UTIL in other formats.

I agree. That's why I said "eventually" :). It'll take time even if they're committed to trying him there. 

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