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Yordan Alvarez 2021 Outlook


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For health and safety reasons of opposing pitchers. 

On a scale of purple to orange I would say it's roughly at lavender.  

Again, is there some reason why all the Yordan projections in this thread are limited to pre All-Star break?

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40 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

He seems like a top 20 player going outside the top 50. What am I missing here?

I've been wondering the same thing.  I'm seeing him going 65 or later in expert drafts around the likes of Michael Conforto, Max Muncy, and Luke Voit.  I get that people are scared off by the injury risk.  I think there's also a bit of an Astros discount since everyone hates them for being cheaters (even in the case of Yordan who wasn't around when that was happening). I also think that given his short track record of success, people don't yet realize how elite of a hitter this guy is.  The upside is immense.

This is an MVP potential bat.  High AVG/OBP, 40+ HR power, 200 R/RBIs in that lineup. If you're in any sort of shallow league (15-teamer or less), the quality of replacement on the wire or your bench should be sufficient to take a chance on Yordan well before his current ADP.  

 

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4 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

UTIL

This is definitely a part of why his ADP is low, but in leagues where he is already qualified as an OF this year he's still going super late.

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6 minutes ago, Von Hayes said:

This is definitely a part of why his ADP is low, but in leagues where he is already qualified as an OF this year he's still going super late.

Yea in that case i think it's because of injury concerns.

 

I do agree with everything you said upthread though--seems like an absolute steal at his current ADP

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14 minutes ago, treyjuice said:


He has the knees of a 50 year old . 


Is this a serious statement? I’ve heard talks about arthritic knees but I haven’t heard any official reports diagnosing that.
 

Having a torn patellar tendon doesn't necessarily mean you have old man knees.

 

If the surgery went well and there is no degenerative condition, what’s the worry?

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3 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

He seems like a top 20 player going outside the top 50. What am I missing here?

Don’t underestimate the difficulty of returning to pro sports after patellar tendon surgery, even for a DH. He also had a knee scope on the other knee, which is of less significance. His offseason has been spent rehabbing instead of a more typical offseason of going full blast in the gym and batting cages. He’s going to get rest days this year and there’s a good chance he’s limited to pinch hitting duties in NL parks so when we’re projecting games played 150 or so is probably his ceiling.

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35 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Don’t underestimate the difficulty of returning to pro sports after patellar tendon surgery, even for a DH. He also had a knee scope on the other knee, which is of less significance. His offseason has been spent rehabbing instead of a more typical offseason of going full blast in the gym and batting cages. He’s going to get rest days this year and there’s a good chance he’s limited to pinch hitting duties in NL parks so when we’re projecting games played 150 or so is probably his ceiling.

i think i mentioned this before, but i completely tore my patella tendon off my kneecap and was back being active (rec sports/running/hiking, etc) in a few months.  This was a few years ago and havent had any issues since.

 

And thats without the world class medical treatment that these guys get.

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1 hour ago, treyjuice said:


He has the knees of a 50 year old . 

That’s just not true. His knees are not arthritic nor are they degenerative. There are sports docs out there who have clarified that he had an injury to his knee that was injured and needed a patella tendon tear fixed. The other was a cleanup. Both were arthroscopic surgeries, considered minor. Let other people keep sleeping on a guy like this who can put up steroid era level statistics up. This guy will win leagues for people who pounced on that type of value. 

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On 3/16/2021 at 6:16 PM, TheForearmShiver said:

Everything you “kneed” to know. 

 


So my comment about him having 50 year old knees was a little tongue in cheek. That being said when an article starts calculating that he will only have to run as many feet as it takes to get around the bases so we need not worry I’d say that’s a bad sign. I love the guy at his baseline , he was a big part of my fantasy championship in 2019 . That being said I don’t think he looked good in the video of him running 2 months ago, and last year when he debuted and hit a homer only to be shut down a day or two later for the season it was obvious something was sketchy. I was just answering homeboys question about why he is falling so low in drafts considering his potential. I’ve definitely been wrong before , but I don’t see this guy playing a full season although I’d be happy for him and his owners if he does . 

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1 hour ago, treyjuice said:


So my comment about him having 50 year old knees was a little tongue in cheek. That being said when an article starts calculating that he will only have to run as many feet as it takes to get around the bases so we need not worry I’d say that’s a bad sign. 

So it’s totally fine for you to exaggerate how bad Yordan’s knees are but the fact that someone gives actual facts to show that the baseball activity impact to his surgically repaired knees is probably overestimated by some ... that’s a bad sign. Ok got it.

 

Ultimately, one person’s perspective article doesn’t actually dictate whether or not Yordan’s knees will hold up.

 

But I’m more inclined to side with well reasoned rational arguments over your hyperbole.

 

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Alvarez is being introduced slowly back to playing because the skipper is worried about the knees.

Big power for sure, but he doesn't have much of a track record in the show, and we have no idea how long his knees can hold up.

I can see why he is going past pick 50, because there is a lot of question marks here vs safer picks that can provide very good performance.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

So it’s totally fine for you to exaggerate how bad Yordan’s knees are but the fact that someone gives actual facts to show that the baseball activity impact to his surgically repaired knees is probably overestimated by some ... that’s a bad sign. Ok got it.

 

Ultimately, one person’s perspective article doesn’t actually dictate whether or not Yordan’s knees will hold up.

 

But I’m more inclined to side with well reasoned rational arguments over your hyperbole.

 

He sounded pretty reasonable to me. Someone asked a question, he answered it. 

I'm not identifying a problem here.

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Maybe players don't always know their own bodies, but this clip, with Yordan saying that the injury is something that is 'part of the past' leads me to believe his rehab this offseason was more successful than his previous attempts during seasons prior. Hope that's the case.

 

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19 hours ago, UberRebel said:

So it’s totally fine for you to exaggerate how bad Yordan’s knees are but the fact that someone gives actual facts to show that the baseball activity impact to his surgically repaired knees is probably overestimated by some ... that’s a bad sign. Ok got it.

 

Ultimately, one person’s perspective article doesn’t actually dictate whether or not Yordan’s knees will hold up.

 

But I’m more inclined to side with well reasoned rational arguments over your hyperbole.

 


He has never played a full season in the majors before . He is 23 (supposedly) and has already had arthroscopic knee surgery on both of his knees. It’s already pretty clear he won’t be playing the outfield because of this . Last year his knees were a major issue if you were paying attention as he missed a large amount of time at the beginning of the year and when he finally returned he lasted less than a week before being completely shut down. He’s  probably a conservative 250 pounds with limited mobility.  Are those rational enough for you? 

 

19 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

He sounded pretty reasonable to me. Someone asked a question, he answered it. 

I'm not identifying a problem here.


The problem is ultra sensitivity from a no doubt Yordan owner. I thought I made some pretty good points and have a pretty good track record around here but how dare we share opinions on baseball players. Once again I *hope* Yordan hits 50 but if he plays all year without ending up on the DL at least once I’ll be shocked. 

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28 minutes ago, treyjuice said:


He has never played a full season in the majors before . He is 23 (supposedly) and has already had arthroscopic knee surgery on both of his knees. It’s already pretty clear he won’t be playing the outfield because of this . Last year his knees were a major issue if you were paying attention as he missed a large amount of time at the beginning of the year and when he finally returned he lasted less than a week before being completely shut down. He’s  probably a conservative 250 pounds with limited mobility.  Are those rational enough for you? 

 


The problem is ultra sensitivity from a no doubt Yordan owner. I thought I made some pretty good points and have a pretty good track record around here but how dare we share opinions on baseball players. Once again I *hope* Yordan hits 50 but if he plays all year without ending up on the DL at least once I’ll be shocked. 

No, he hasn't played a full season in the Majors, but he did get 622 PAs in 2019. Having both knees scoped isn't a huge issue to me. There are a lot of athletes who have had their knees scoped who are just fine, so that's not something that scares me. I know we don't trust what players say about their own health, but he's pretty optimistic about the way they feel now. As for his weight, I'd be more concerned if he was 6', but standing 6'5" with his frame, he's built to carry more weight. He isn't obese or anything. And yes, I understand your point...it's still 250lbs pushing down on the knees. But he has a longer and larger frame to help support that weight than he would if he was even just a few inches shorter. 

Will he play 150 games this year? No one really knows at this point, but I've learned that I'll drive myself nuts if get overly concerned with how many games a player will miss due to injury. I just go into a season assuming each player will stay healthy all year and adjust as injuries arise. It's worked pretty well for me so far :). I mean, every year guys hit the DL who we don't expect to, and every year guys we expect to hit the DL don't. 

That said, I definitely understand your trepidation. 

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

So?? Heads = .345, 63, 161 ?  Tails = 12 at bats?

I'm more .300/45/125 but def heads. 

Based on the medical stuff I read he's good as he's gettin'

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2 hours ago, rrrich46 said:

I'm more .300/45/125 but def heads. 

Based on the medical stuff I read he's good as he's gettin'

Again, is there some reason why all the Yordan projections in this thread are limited to pre All-Star break?

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On 3/17/2021 at 8:34 PM, UberRebel said:

So it’s totally fine for you to exaggerate how bad Yordan’s knees are but the fact that someone gives actual facts to show that the baseball activity impact to his surgically repaired knees is probably overestimated by some ... that’s a bad sign. Ok got it.

 

Ultimately, one person’s perspective article doesn’t actually dictate whether or not Yordan’s knees will hold up.

 

But I’m more inclined to side with well reasoned rational arguments over your hyperbole.

 

 

I have to say in my life experience the person saying "got it" sarcastically is the unreasonable one almost 100% of the time.

I think it's much harder to argue that 2 knee procedures before turning 24 isn't a red flag than saying it is one. But there have been some optimistic reports this offseason that the issue is now fixed. If that's true he's an extreme bargain with the only real negative being UTIL only in many leagues. Either way, I'd be more concerned 4-5 years down the road than the near future.

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