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Yordan Alvarez 2021 Outlook


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4 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

 

I can easily see this dude being a top 15 pick next year.  .300-100r-45hr-120rbi-100bb type year incoming. Maybe .280-90r-30hr-90rbi-70bb at worst. 

I'll take those [albeit, conservative] numbers for the April-June stretch of games every time.  

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On a scale of purple to orange I would say it's roughly at lavender.  

For health and safety reasons of opposing pitchers. 

Again, is there some reason why all the Yordan projections in this thread are limited to pre All-Star break?

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I'm fully on board with this dude.

140+ games played, along with a .300 BA, 40 HR, 100 RBI season. I think by May, you'll see a lot of pitchers start to pitch around him.

And wouldn't at all be surprised to see him move up to the #4 spot if Tucker doesn't perform well in the first few weeks of the season.

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11 hours ago, CORTEz said:

I'm fully on board with this dude.

140+ games played, along with a .300 BA, 40 HR, 100 RBI season. I think by May, you'll see a lot of pitchers start to pitch around him.

And wouldn't at all be surprised to see him move up to the #4 spot if Tucker doesn't perform well in the first few weeks of the season.

Yea was confused they had this goliath batting 6th. 

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The theory is that it's the only way to keep his future salary demands down.  Too bad for HOU, they could move Yordy to 9th and he's still a mvp lock.

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Just now, tucker26 said:

The theory is that it's the only way to keep his future salary demands down.  Too bad for HOU, they could move Yordy to 9th and he's still a mvp lock.

CBA is ending this year, no? I don't see the profit of playing this type of game without assurance what the future financial structure is going to be.

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3 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

CBA is ending this year, no? I don't see the profit of playing this type of game without assurance what the future financial structure is going to be.

 

 

6 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

The theory is that it's the only way to keep his future salary demands down.  Too bad for HOU, they could move Yordy to 9th and he's still a mvp lock.

i think people are going to be grandfathered into whatever they are now.  Yordan has 4 years left on his deal, including this year.  His RBi count from  3 years ago is probably not going to matter even the slightest in his next contract. i don't think many if any GMs even consider RBI count when signing someone.  His lack of defense alone is going to hinder him from making an ultra mega deal, but I imagine if he continues on his path he will get the highest contract for a DH type bat ever.

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

i think people are going to be grandfathered into whatever they are now.  Yordan has 4 years left on his deal, including this year.  His RBi count from  3 years ago is probably not going to matter even the slightest in his next contract. i don't think many if any GMs even consider RBI count when signing someone.  His lack of defense alone is going to hinder him from making an ultra mega deal, but I imagine if he continues on his path he will get the highest contract for a DH type bat ever.

I read that as he was talking about how they determine arb value for players. Which is outdated. That could very much change and doesn't really require much grandfathering outside of ensuring the years of control are the same.

Maybe he was just talking about a deal being made in the final year of his control or FA, but that is not how I read it?

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

I read that as he was talking about how they determine arb value for players. Which is outdated. That could very much change and doesn't really require much grandfathering outside of ensuring the years of control are the same.

Maybe he was just talking about a deal being made in the final year of his control or FA, but that is not how I read it?

It seems like a stretch either way honestly. If Yordan comes close to his 2019 slash line, he'll bat higher up.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I don’t like the way Houston has their lineup structured at all. I feel like they stagger R/L/R/L just because. Feels odd. Plus, Altuve just simply isn’t anything even close to what he was 5 years ago and shouldn’t be leading off IMO.

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55 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

I don’t like the way Houston has their lineup structured at all. I feel like they stagger R/L/R/L just because. Feels odd. Plus, Altuve just simply isn’t anything even close to what he was 5 years ago and shouldn’t be leading off IMO.

 After watching them last night, I'm not sure how anyone could complain with the way it' set up. Straw is tolerable at 8 or 9 for now,  Who better in that lineup to lead off ?

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5 minutes ago, Ricky Bobby said:

 After watching them last night, I'm not sure how anyone could complain with the way it' set up. Straw is tolerable at 8 or 9 for now,  Who better in that lineup to lead off ?

How about Brantley?

Brantley

Bregman

Tucker

Yordan

Correa

Yuli

Altuve

Maldonaldo

Straw

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

How about Brantley?

Brantley

Bregman

Tucker

Yordan

Correa

Yuli

Altuve

Maldonaldo

Straw

I want Brantley in a position to drive in runs. He's best suited in the line up to do it. I'd like to see Altuve run a little more as well. Not so much with Brantley. Did you not see Altuve hit in the playoffs last year? Far from washed. They popped off 8 runs in an opener, Dusty's line up is ok.

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Just now, Ricky Bobby said:

I want Brantley in a position to drive in runs. He's best suited in the line up to do it. I'd like to see Altuve run a little more as well. Not so much with Brantley. Did you not see Altuve hit in the playoffs last year? Far from washed. They popped off 8 runs in an opener, Dusty's line up is ok.

Brantley gets on base.  Altuve's OBP last year in 210 plate appearances was .286, that's not gonna get it done.  I mean it's cool that in the playoffs he got hot and had a good night last night but needs a much bigger sample size to overcome a downward trend.

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Could you imagine being a pitcher....and having to go through Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Tucker and Correa....

Only to realize that Yordan is batting 6th...

Going to be a long, long year for some of these pitchers. That 2-run double should've been a 3-run homer, had it not been for that big a** wall at the A's park. 85% of other ballparks, that would've been gone.

Get on the train boys and girls. It's going to be a fun season!

Edited by CORTEz
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1 minute ago, CORTEz said:

Could you imagine being a pitcher....and having to go through Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Tucker and Correa....

Only to realize that Yordan is batting 6th...

Going to be a long, long year for some of these pitchers. That 2-run double should've been a 3-run homer, had it not been for that big a** wall at the A's park. 85% of other ballparks, that would've been gone.

Get on the train boys and girls. It's going to be a fun season!

His sac fly went a long way, too...straight-away CF. 

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Brantley gets on base.  Altuve's OBP last year in 210 plate appearances was .286, that's not gonna get it done.  I mean it's cool that in the playoffs he got hot and had a good night last night but needs a much bigger sample size to overcome a downward trend.

 Discounting his playoff at bats vs Tampa pitching when determining whether or not to bat him leadoff and leave Brantley in the RBI situation?  Don't see the logic there. Brantley can't drive in Gurriel, Straw or MM/Castro if they can't get on. You're literally wasting his great contact behind those guys and it's not like brantley is going to help you a lot with his legs in that spot either. Altuve leading off is a no-brainer in this line up IMO.

 

Sorry, this is a thread jack and we got off topic.

Edited by Ricky Bobby
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16 hours ago, CORTEz said:

I'm fully on board with this dude.

140+ games played, along with a .300 BA, 40 HR, 100 RBI season. I think by May, you'll see a 

Yordan should be batting fourth or fifth and Altuve should be in the seventh or eighth spot at this point in his career.

The current idiotic lineup would cost them 1-4 wins over the course of the year.

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2 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Yordan should be batting fourth or fifth and Altuve should be in the seventh or eighth spot at this point in his career.

The current idiotic lineup would cost them 1-4 wins over the course of the year.

How so?

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11 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Yordan should be batting fourth or fifth and Altuve should be in the seventh or eighth spot at this point in his career.

The current idiotic lineup would cost them 1-4 wins over the course of the year.

 

8 minutes ago, Ricky Bobby said:

How so?

The 1-4 wins part is a guessing game but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that having your best bats come to the plate less often will likely cost your team runs. With that said, I think Yordan will find himself in the 4 or 5-hole pretty soon where he'll hopefully stick.

Edited by NatsFanEG
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Just now, NatsFanEG said:

 

The 1-4 wins part is a guessing game but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that having your best bats come to the plate less often will likely cost your team runs.

 

 

I'll go with Dusty Baker over a rocket scientist in regards to the astros line up. Especially if the rocket scientist thinks that Altuve doesn't belong in their top 6.

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5 minutes ago, Ricky Bobby said:

 

 

I'll go with Dusty Baker over a rocket scientist in regards to the astros line up. Especially if the rocket scientist thinks that Altuve doesn't belong in their top 6.

Altuve will stay leadoff unless he struggles mightily like last year...simply put Yordan, albeit in a small sample size, has shown he's one of the most elite hitters in the league with a career OPS north of 1.000. If he shows he is a legit .950+ OPS bat through the first month of this season it would just be silly to hit him all the way down at 6. We'll see how it plays out but if Yordan keeps raking I have little doubt he'll work himself into a better spot soon. They scored 8 runs in the opener so they have little reason to change anything rightn now. 

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23 minutes ago, NatsFanEG said:

Altuve will stay leadoff unless he struggles mightily like last year...simply put Yordan, albeit in a small sample size, has shown he's one of the most elite hitters in the league with a career OPS north of 1.000. If he shows he is a legit .950+ OPS bat through the first month of this season it would just be silly to hit him all the way down at 6. We'll see how it plays out but if Yordan keeps raking I have little doubt he'll work himself into a better spot soon. They scored 8 runs in the opener so they have little reason to change anything rightn now. 

I have zero doubt that Altuve is staying in the 1 hole... barring a big slump, he's the logical choice. Yordan isn't batting cleanup because he didn't get enough Spring at bats in Dusty's estimation. He's moving up soon, but as it stands there's nothing wrong with what they're trotting out there in game 1. I think the lineup in general has less fun vs Jesus tonight. How Alvarez handles talented lefties will play a big part in where he settles in to the line up regularly.

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4 hours ago, Ricky Bobby said:

 Discounting his playoff at bats vs Tampa pitching when determining whether or not to bat him leadoff and leave Brantley in the RBI situation?  Don't see the logic there. Brantley can't drive in Gurriel, Straw or MM/Castro if they can't get on. You're literally wasting his great contact behind those guys and it's not like brantley is going to help you a lot with his legs in that spot either. Altuve leading off is a no-brainer in this line up IMO.

 

Sorry, this is a thread jack and we got off topic.

Steals are a little overrated for a leadoff hitter.  It's been a long time since Ricky Henderson.  Ideally you want someone who gets on base, running is just kind of gravy.

I'm not discounting that Altuve had success against Tampa, but it's 7 games.  The .280 OBP was over 60 games.  It's a sample size issue.  The larger sample size say his on base skills are on a downward slope, which is a real problem for a leadoff hitter (you can't steal first, as they say).

It's possible that last season may have been an aberration because of Covid and he will turn it around.  But I'd say he needs to demonstrate that before we accept it as a given.

You asked "who else could lead off?"  I suggested Brantley because of the onbase skills but they could just as easily go with Tucker or Bregman for instance, the key is just making sure that guy gets on base, not that he runs.

But yes, this is a little afield.  I think in this thread, for our purposes what we're really taking issue with is why Yordan isn't batting cleanup, daggumit.

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