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2021 Offseason Closer Thread


Sidearmer
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2 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

Rays are the ultimate committee approach, so good luck finding a guy there to have a chance for more than 10 saves.

Diego Castillo and Peter Fairbanks each have a shot at 15+ saves

 

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

Diego Castillo and Peter Fairbanks each have a shot at 15+ saves

 

I think last year 12 different rays got saves.  There will be at least 3 people spitting save duties with rays, if not 4-5.  They play match-ups and don't believe in traditional closers.  I think if you grab a ray reliever, your praying they can hit 10 saves.

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33 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

I think last year 12 different rays got saves.  There will be at least 3 people spitting save duties with rays, if not 4-5.  They play match-ups and don't believe in traditional closers.  I think if you grab a ray reliever, your praying they can hit 10 saves.

So are you suggesting that none will get 10 saves or just suggesting that you have to hope to get lucky by selecting the right one? 

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37 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

I think last year 12 different rays got saves.  There will be at least 3 people spitting save duties with rays, if not 4-5.  They play match-ups and don't believe in traditional closers.  I think if you grab a ray reliever, your praying they can hit 10 saves.

If you are drafting a Rays RP, you should not be planning on more than 10-15 saves. If we assume the Rays have 45 saves this year, I'd probably split that between 4-5 players, still one or two of those guys should eclipse 10 saves.

Its still a dicey situation, and at best you should be picking a Rays RP solely for ratios and any saves are a bonus.

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9 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

So are you suggesting that none will get 10 saves or just suggesting that you have to hope to get lucky by selecting the right one? 

I think you might see an RP get about 10 saves, another two RP get 8-10 saves, and a handful of other RP get 3-5 saves.  This just based on how TB likes to use their bullpen.

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2 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

I think you might see an RP get about 10 saves, another two RP get 8-10 saves, and a handful of other RP get 3-5 saves.  This just based on how TB likes to use their bullpen.

That just isn’t based on factual history. 

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

That just isn’t based on factual history. 

I just took last years numbers (23 saves), and doubled that to 46 saves (which is approx how many saves TB would be expected to get this year.)  I then doubled the number of saves of each person that got them last year.

Anderson would lead with 12 saves, Castillo with 8, and then a few at 4, and a bunch at 2.

My guess would be we would see something similar this year, given how much TB spreads saves around and doesn't believe in having a traditional closer.

You can have a different opinion, but I am just looking at recent evidence.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see 4-5 guys really get a more focus for saves this year.  But again, who knows for sure.  TB does the atypical.

Edited by Hellgrammite
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Just now, Hellgrammite said:

I just took last years numbers (23 saves), and doubled that to 46 saves (which is approx how many saves TB would be expected to get this year.)  I then doubled the number of saves of each person that got them last year.

Anderson would lead with 12 saves, Castillo with 8, and then a few at 4, and a bunch at 2.

My guess would be we would see something similar this year, given how much TB spreads saves around and doesn't believe in having a traditional closer.

You can have a different opinion, but I am just looking at recent evidence.

Well doubling is cutting it about 42 games short. Did you look at 2019 and 2018? Not to even mention 2017. 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Well doubling is cutting it about 42 games short. Did you look at 2019 and 2018? Not to even mention 2017. 

LOL.  2017 and 2021 a long ways apart.

I gave you my expectations based on the trend we started seeing last year.  Just my opinion, you are free to disagree, but I am not investing in Rays RPs for saves, that is a bonus.  You should grab them for ratios at this point.

If you trust Cash to have a primary closer, give us your prediction on who it is.  I would like to hear your analysis and thoughts.  If you think it will be only 2 primary closers, why do you think that?  Is that what happened in 2019?

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7 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

LOL.  2017 and 2021 a long ways apart.

I gave you my expectations based on the trend we started seeing last year.  Just my opinion, you are free to disagree, but I am not investing in Rays RPs for saves, that is a bonus.  You should grab them for ratios at this point.

If you trust Cash to have a primary closer, give us your prediction on who it is.  I would like to hear your analysis and thoughts.

That’s why I said I wasn’t even mentioning 2017. But you still fail to address 2019 or 2018, and you fail to address the fact that you doubled the numbers last year, which chopped 42 games off your prorated numbers. The fact is, over 162 games last year, Anderson was on pace for 16 saves and Castillo 11. In 2019, Pagan saved 20 while Castillo chipped in 8 and Alvarado 7. In 2018, Romo saved 25 and Colome 11. These are facts, not opinions. 

My opinion based on the set of recent facts is that Castillo and or Fairbanks will get double-digit saves if they stay healthy. And there is a decent chance one of them hits the 20-save mark with Anderson missing so much time. Your opinion is based on what you believe will happen, not on what has happened. 

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7 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

That’s why I said I wasn’t even mentioning 2017. But you still fail to address 2019 or 2018, and you fail to address the fact that you doubled the numbers last year, which chopped 42 games off your prorated numbers. The fact is, over 162 games last year, Anderson was on pace for 16 saves and Castillo 11. In 2019, Pagan saved 20 while Castillo chipped in 8 and Alvarado 7. In 2018, Romo saved 25 and Colome 11. These are facts, not opinions. 

My opinion based on the set of recent facts is that Castillo and or Fairbanks will get double-digit saves if they stay healthy. And there is a decent chance one of them hits the 20-save mark with Anderson missing so much time. Your opinion is based on what you believe will happen, not on what has happened. 

And you said you think 2 guys have a shot at 15+ saves each on that team, which would be unique to TB based on your analysis (never has happened recently), but is your opinion.

We each have our opinion which is a deviation on past experience, so lets just say we have different opinions and see what happens.  No need to drag this out.  I don't think anybody knows what will happen, we only have our opinions and limited evidence.

 

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5 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

And you said you think 2 guys have a shot at 15+ saves each on that team, which would be unique to TB based on your analysis (never has happened recently), but is your opinion.

We each have our opinion which is a deviation on past experience, so lets just say we have different opinions and see what happens.  No need to drag this out.  I don't think anybody knows what will happen, we only have our opinions and limited evidence.

 

No, that is not what I said...not at all. What I said is that one (1) of the two has a chance at 20 and that both have a good shot at double-digits (ie, 10+). I never even mentioned the number 15. Both of those statements are based on recent history (2018, 2019, and 2020 prorated to 162 games).

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7 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

No, that is not what I said...not at all. What I said is that one (1) of the two has a chance at 20 and that both have a good shot at double-digits (ie, 10+). I never even mentioned the number 15. Both of those statements are based on recent history (2018, 2019, and 2020 prorated to 162 games).

Sorry, that was Jb_power who said multiple RPs could get 15 each.  I got multiple replies quick, and lost who said what when you replied to my comment to him.

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Just now, Hellgrammite said:

Sorry, that was Jb_power who said multiple RPs could get 15 each.  I got multiple replies quick, and lost who said what when you replied to my comment to him.

No worries :). We’ll see how the season shakes out. I may be wrong on how the save totals are dispersed. According to my wife, it would be the first time I’ve been wrong...in the last two minutes. Lol. Progress! 

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7 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

I just took last years numbers (23 saves), and doubled that to 46 saves (which is approx how many saves TB would be expected to get this year.)  I then doubled the number of saves of each person that got them last year.

Anderson would lead with 12 saves, Castillo with 8, and then a few at 4, and a bunch at 2.

My guess would be we would see something similar this year, given how much TB spreads saves around and doesn't believe in having a traditional closer.

You can have a different opinion, but I am just looking at recent evidence.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see 4-5 guys really get a more focus for saves this year.  But again, who knows for sure.  TB does the atypical.

 

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8 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

If you are drafting a Rays RP, you should not be planning on more than 10-15 saves. If we assume the Rays have 45 saves this year, I'd probably split that between 4-5 players, still one or two of those guys should eclipse 10 saves.

Its still a dicey situation, and at best you should be picking a Rays RP solely for ratios and any saves are a bonus.

You used a one year (60 games) as a sample size. A year where people could be, and were, sent home for CV19 minutes before games started. Every year before last the team leader in saves had close to, and sometime much more than, 50% of the saves.

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One difference before last year is that their pen wasnt as good.  Rays have options now.  I’d add Fairbanks to see what happens.  If he doesn’t work out I’m not sure how much time and effort to see who the guy is in Tampa when other teams are going to be a little clearer.  

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Have the Indians committed to Wittgren as closer or just hints?  Haven't seen much on this lately.  

What about with the Braves?  Seems like with lefty/righty Smith/Martin) it could be a share.  But it's been mostly quiet on the new front.

Nationals - Worried about Hand?  Chances Rainey closes?

Marlins - Sounds like Bass is the guy but Yimi seems to be the one with better stuff which is usually what I bet on when I don't know what to make of a situation.

Philly - 3 headed monster or will someone grab hold of it?

Balt - Ugly

Rangers - Seems like Kennedy's right now, Bush not looking great.

 

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17 minutes ago, svdude said:

Have the Indians committed to Wittgren as closer or just hints?  Haven't seen much on this lately.  

What about with the Braves?  Seems like with lefty/righty Smith/Martin) it could be a share.  But it's been mostly quiet on the new front.

Nationals - Worried about Hand?  Chances Rainey closes?

Marlins - Sounds like Bass is the guy but Yimi seems to be the one with better stuff which is usually what I bet on when I don't know what to make of a situation.

Philly - 3 headed monster or will someone grab hold of it?

Balt - Ugly

Rangers - Seems like Kennedy's right now, Bush not looking great.

 

Bush looked really solid until yesterday...and no commitment from the tribe yet for sure

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2 minutes ago, PittsburghSports said:

Can anyone make sense of the Cardinals situation? I own Gallegos, trying to figure out if I should add Hicks as insurance.

You should def own Hicks...really he is the guy imo and Gallegos is the insurance.

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19 minutes ago, svdude said:

Have the Indians committed to Wittgren as closer or just hints?  Haven't seen much on this lately.  

What about with the Braves?  Seems like with lefty/righty Smith/Martin) it could be a share.  But it's been mostly quiet on the new front.

Nationals - Worried about Hand?  Chances Rainey closes?

Marlins - Sounds like Bass is the guy but Yimi seems to be the one with better stuff which is usually what I bet on when I don't know what to make of a situation.

Philly - 3 headed monster or will someone grab hold of it?

Balt - Ugly

Rangers - Seems like Kennedy's right now, Bush not looking great.

 

Tribe haven't committed to anyone, but the beat writers have been stressing that Karinchak could keep his role as the stopper and Wittgren takes on save opps. I'd be surprised if anything formal is announced.

Hand seems like a ticking time bomb based on diminished velocity, but he made it work last season in the small sample.

The rest of the situations are murky at best. Bass will start as closer but his stuff is...not great.

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12 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

I just took last years numbers (23 saves), and doubled that to 46 saves (which is approx how many saves TB would be expected to get this year.)  I then doubled the number of saves of each person that got them last year.

Anderson would lead with 12 saves, Castillo with 8, and then a few at 4, and a bunch at 2.

My guess would be we would see something similar this year, given how much TB spreads saves around and doesn't believe in having a traditional closer.

You can have a different opinion, but I am just looking at recent evidence.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see 4-5 guys really get a more focus for saves this year.  But again, who knows for sure.  TB does the atypical.


Doubling their 60 game stats as representation of a 162 game season makes sense in your head? 

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