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2021 Offseason Closer Thread


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Crick seems to be getting all the attention and understandably so with his solid (albeit limited 6IP) spring training but i wouldnt sleep on Stratton. 30 IP last year and sported a 11.70 K/9 3.90 BB/9 with 3.19 FIP. 37.4% CSW and he hasnt been a bust in ST either, just not as flashy as Crick but still solid.....6 IP, 2 ER, 3H, 5Ks, 3 BB. Im taking a few shares, especially since he has that sweet SP designation on some formats.

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Ill take a stab: Arizona Diamondbacks - Unclear.  Crichton/Soria/Devinski/Ginkel.  Total guess. I lean Crichton for first shot.  Bukaskas wild card.  May be the smart play Atlanta Braves -

Last stab.  These are just my opinions based on months of research and reading the tea leaves.  I've filtered ADP to only include March drafts.  My spelling will also be atrocious.  Guys can get trade

Ranking closers has been especially difficult this year with so many jobs still up for grabs this late in the game. Here's my attempt to rank them for traditional saves only roto leagues: 1. Liam

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I don't have room on my roster but Chad Green is a bit of a sharp play if you have a short week Thursday - Sunday and don't have enough starters going. Chapman is suspended for the first two games due to the playoffs and Green is in line for those save chances if they are there. 

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22 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

LeClerc LeCooked

Jose Leclerc will undergo Tommy John surgery.

The Rangers had previously revealed that Leclerc was expected to be sidelined for an extended period of time, and now we know that it's going to be Tommy John surgery. He will likely be on the shelf at least until around June of 2022, if all goes well. The Rangers appear poised to go with a combination of Matt Bush and/or Ian Kennedy at closer for now, with Joely Rodriguez (ankle) factoring into the mix when he returns.

 

Fixed it for ya :)

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Full-blown committee. Tea leaves have been here for a while but what is interesting about this is most presumed in the last month that it would be Wittgren (probably because they were only thinking Karinchak / Wittgren and used the unthinking "keep the price down for arbitration" position for Karinchak (stupid and speculative).

In my mind this news is REALLY good for Clase who people have been sleeping on. I'm betting on Clase because:

1) No BB this spring (control similar to Wittgren and obviously waaaay better than Karinchak)

2) Has been the most vocal about wanting role (Garrett narrative)

3) Doesn't profile as a multi-inning guy like Wittgren

4) Closed in minors

I'm not saying he's the favorite at the moment - - but rather there is no good reason to think Wittgren is either based on everything to date.  And you could have (probably too late now) gotten Clase 200 picks later.

My favorite closer stash to start the season.  Will be really interesting to see this play out.

Edited by Magoo
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Both Clase and Karinchak are two seasons away from entering arbitration, so if money is playing a part in the final decision then I expect it will be Wittgren over either of them.

I have to admit I'm not up to speed on how penny-pinching the Indians have been of late, but when slotting guys into the 7th/8th inning versus the ninth is projected to save you 5-15 million over three years of arbitration the cynic in me says it's a consideration for non big-market teams.  

Edited by Overlord
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23 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Both Clase and Karinchak are two seasons away from entering arbitration, so if money is playing a part in the final decision then I expect it will be Wittgren over either of them.

I have to admit I'm not up to speed on how penny-pinching the Indians have been of late, but when slotting guys into the 7th/8th inning versus the ninth is projected to save you 5-15 million over three years of arbitration the cynic in me says it's a consideration for non big-market teams.  

So is giving a guy saves to pump up trade value.

Oh and Wittgren is still in arb years so - yea you guessed it - giving him saves makes him more expensive too.

Confirmation bias is a heck of a drug.

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alot of these managers are going to take the easy way out and call it a competition or committee.  its the same song and dance after an established closer is pulled from his role.  they dont want to butt hurt anyone and probably have someone in mind.  whoever doesn't screw up probably gets it.  another reason the committee doesn't work for everyone.  they put mediocre relievers to close out the game in the 9th and they blow the lead... the manager gets tired of leads getting blown in the 9th and eventually settles on their best or one of their best relievers to do it

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14 minutes ago, Magoo said:

So is giving a guy saves to pump up trade value.

Oh and Wittgren is still in arb years so - yea you guessed it - giving him saves makes him more expensive too.

Confirmation bias is a heck of a drug.

Wittgren has already burned a year of arbitration and is a much more likely trade candidate.  Additionally, if you read up on how arbitration works, each year builds upon the previous ... Wittgren accumulating saves for ARB 2 and ARB 3 years is a lot less "harmful" to his arb salary than a player building up saves for multiple years pre-arbitration would be.  

**I have no idea why you're talking about "confirmation bias" unless for some reason you suspect I own Wittgren somewhere (I do not) or that I do not own Karinchak or Clase (in the case of the latter, I do).  

Edited by Overlord
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10 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Wittgren has already burned a year of arbitration and is a much more likely trade candidate.  Additionally, if you read up on how arbitration works, each year builds upon the previous ... Wittgren accumulating saves for ARB 2 and ARB 3 years is a lot less "harmful" to his arb salary than a player building up saves for multiple years pre-arbitration would be.  

**I have no idea why you're talking about "confirmation bias" unless for some reason you suspect I own Wittgren somewhere (I do not) or that I do not own Karinchak or Clase (in the case of the latter, I do).  

Totally fair and I know the pre-arb years have a larger effect.  No dispute.  

My confirmation bias point was not about presuming you own Wittgren (I would call that Wittgren bias lol).  It was more about my impression that everyone assumes how cheap clubs handle these situations.  And being closer to FA + trade value kind of cancels out the pre-arb keep cost down presumption. Cleveland is no doubt cheap but I just think it's more narrative that fact.

Sorry if that came across prickish.  I can see how it did.

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31 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

alot of these managers are going to take the easy way out and call it a competition or committee.  its the same song and dance after an established closer is pulled from his role.  they dont want to butt hurt anyone and probably have someone in mind.  whoever doesn't screw up probably gets it.  another reason the committee doesn't work for everyone.  they put mediocre relievers to close out the game in the 9th and they blow the lead... the manager gets tired of leads getting blown in the 9th and eventually settles on their best or one of their best relievers to do it

Does Francona have a history of doing committees?

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3 minutes ago, Magoo said:

 

Sorry if that came across prickish.  I can see how it did.

Don't worry, I have totally thick skin and laugh off all slights, real or merely perceived.

giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Does Francona have a history of doing committees?

Not really as far as I can remember. I can't speak for before the Indians though.

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2 minutes ago, drunkb said:

Not really as far as I can remember. I can't speak for before the Indians though.

I'm not even sure if the pre-Covid world was anything but a fondly remembered dream at this point.

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29 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Don't worry, I have totally thick skin and laugh off all slights, real or merely perceived.

giphy.gif

I just realized my logic actually makes no sense since they would be more likely to give Wittgren saves to increase his trade value.

FML

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

I just realized my logic actually makes no sense since they would be more likely to give Wittgren saves to increase his trade value.

FML

giphy.gif

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After all of this discussion and analysis of the Cleveland bullpen, I fully expect Bryan Shaw to get the first save opportunity on opening day.

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57 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Does Francona have a history of doing committees?

He didn't with the Red Sox, but during his entire tenure he either had Foulke or Papelbon at his disposal so I wouldn't read too much into it. As old school as Tito may seem, I think he is actually pretty progressive as far as bullpen usage -- I think of him using Andrew Miller in a multi-inning role early in games during the playoffs as an example. I wouldn't be surprised if he rolls with a committee for a while until the roles sort themselves out,

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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

After all of this discussion and analysis of the Cleveland bullpen, I fully expect Bryan Shaw to get the first save opportunity on opening day.

Bob Wickman or GTFO.

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2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

“The Physique”

guy looked like a bag of leaves 

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like:  

zwick1.jpg?w=216&h=283

Edited by Overlord
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12 minutes ago, meh2 said:

After all of this discussion and analysis of the Cleveland bullpen, I fully expect Bryan Shaw to get the first save opportunity on opening day.

We laugh but I think I actually read something that said he's interested in the role too...

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On 2/4/2021 at 7:06 AM, Magoo said:

They all have an equal chance imo including Ginkel. Always be careful drafting late season closer stop gaps. Not a single confirmation Crichton has the role. 

The above is in reference to the Soria signing.  Looking at the spring stats for all 3 and word from Lovullo that they are not naming a closer, I like Ginkel as maybe the most under the radar guy who could be the best of the bunch.  Of course, small sample size so anything can still happen.  I tried to check spring velos but no luck.

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12 minutes ago, EWV1 said:

The above is in reference to the Soria signing.  Looking at the spring stats for all 3 and word from Lovullo that they are not naming a closer, I like Ginkel as maybe the most under the radar guy who could be the best of the bunch.  Of course, small sample size so anything can still happen.  I tried to check spring velos but no luck.

If Soria’s performance has opened the door to his presumed role then I’d re-bet on Crichton at least to get a first chance. He did earn it. Don’t think he can keep it but should get a shot

 

 

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

If Soria’s performance has opened the door to his presumed role then I’d re-bet on Crichton at least to get a first chance. He did earn it. Don’t think he can keep it but should get a shot

 

 

 

keep a sharp eye on J.B. Bukauskas in Arz

 

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