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2021 Offseason Closer Thread


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48 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Why wouldn't Williams be a handcuff? If anything happens to Hader, he's next in line, correct? 

Technicality of words. I think he’s brilliant, but has standalone value no matter whether closer or not. Sure he’s a handcuff too if you want to call it that.

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Ill take a stab: Arizona Diamondbacks - Unclear.  Crichton/Soria/Devinski/Ginkel.  Total guess. I lean Crichton for first shot.  Bukaskas wild card.  May be the smart play Atlanta Braves -

Last stab.  These are just my opinions based on months of research and reading the tea leaves.  I've filtered ADP to only include March drafts.  My spelling will also be atrocious.  Guys can get trade

Ranking closers has been especially difficult this year with so many jobs still up for grabs this late in the game. Here's my attempt to rank them for traditional saves only roto leagues: 1. Liam

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10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Why wouldn't Williams be a handcuff? If anything happens to Hader, he's next in line, correct? 

No because there has been zero indication of such. All guesses. And he has no performance track record, no closer track record, and his draft price is being artificially inflated by early Hader rumors resulting in anchoring bias.

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

No because there has been zero indication of such. All guesses. And he has no performance track record, no closer track record, and his draft price is being artificially inflated by early Hader rumors resulting in anchoring bias.

 

Check out this twitter thread lots of good info including some unreal small samples of pitchers and then yuck. Also this was brought up Here are the top 20 relievers for 2016-2020 w/ zero to negligible saves. The only guy appearing twice is Devenski who earned $8 in 2017 after a great 2016. So your two outs are: 1) He's a unicorn unlike past unicorns 2) He falls into saves.

I'm not opposed to grabbing both but it comes at quite a cost but drafting Williams naked at his ADP in a saves only league I'm not on board with.

 

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Devin Williams is an easy fade for me at his current ADP. I think people are overlooking his injury history and the fact that he broke down again at the end of last year with a shoulder injury when the Brewers started pushing him more with 3 straight two inning outings. I think he’ll be handled more carefully this year and I wouldn’t expect a big innings pitched total at the end of the year. We’re now 5 1/2 months since he injured that shoulder and the Brewers are still bringing him along slowly which should give us some clues about the severity of the injury.

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On 3/4/2021 at 1:31 PM, street sharks said:

@closernews is now suspended for god knows why.

They used to be the best account to follow assuming you had push notifications turned on because they'd tweet out who got saves right after they'd happen. 

There is a void to fill.

I've created this twitter account and would like to try and run it in a similar way but improved. 

twitter.com/closercarousel_

I would need a few more people to help run it though since I can't watch all the games at once obviously. I figure if we have a few people on the account then we can cover every game.

If you're interested in helping DM me for more details. I'd prefer people who are regulars in this thread just because I know I can trust you fellow nerds to be watching games.

What about @closermonkey on Twitter?

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4 hours ago, Magoo said:

No because there has been zero indication of such. All guesses. And he has no performance track record, no closer track record, and his draft price is being artificially inflated by early Hader rumors resulting in anchoring bias.

Devon Williams is gold in Saves+Holds leagues and his ratio of K's per innings is fantastic.  So no there is no artificial inflation because less and less leagues these days pay with just merely "saves only."  Even is "saves only" leagues those K's add up to young Betances-like numbers.

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Devon Williams is gold in Saves+Holds leagues and his ratio of K's per innings is fantastic.  So no there is no artificial inflation because less and less leagues these days pay with just merely "saves only."  Even is "saves only" leagues those K's add up to young Betances-like numbers.

Most of my comments are restricted to 5x5 roto which I should have clarified.  That being said, in 5x5 roto he absolutely is overpriced - - just like Betances was.  Ks with no wins or saves have much less value than you think.

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If Williams repeats his success last year than the price is worth it. That is a big if, though. I'd much rather wait another 5 - 10 rounds or so and get a different elite MRP.

Williams could fall into saves, which is why I believe he is the best handcuff available - that being said, you don't pick a handcuff when there are quality closers still on the board.

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16 hours ago, Magoo said:

Most of my comments are restricted to 5x5 roto which I should have clarified.  That being said, in 5x5 roto he absolutely is overpriced - - just like Betances was.  Ks with no wins or saves have much less value than you think.

In a league like mine where there is a total innings limit, RPs who can provide great ratios and have a high K total are gold, even if they don’t get many wins or saves. 

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7 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

That Reds bullpen is as cloudy as it gets right now. Garrett has this forearm issue. Lucas Sims could emerge if his injury is resolved. Doolittle is there but I personally think he’s toast. My boy, Antone, is probably there best arm but they still haven’t figured out what his role will be. I suppose Lorenzen could even be an option if they choose not to put him in the rotation.

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4 minutes ago, meh2 said:

That Reds bullpen is as cloudy as it gets right now. Garrett has this forearm issue. Lucas Sims could emerge if his injury is resolved. Doolittle is there but I personally think he’s toast. My boy, Antone, is probably there best arm but they still haven’t figured out what his role will be. I suppose Lorenzen could even be an option if they choose not to put him in the rotation.

Jeff Hoffman is a dark horse for the role as well. Probably over Lorenzen who they really want to be a starter.

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53 minutes ago, meh2 said:

That Reds bullpen is as cloudy as it gets right now. Garrett has this forearm issue. Lucas Sims could emerge if his injury is resolved. Doolittle is there but I personally think he’s toast. My boy, Antone, is probably there best arm but they still haven’t figured out what his role will be. I suppose Lorenzen could even be an option if they choose not to put him in the rotation.

When Iglesias first got traded everyone presumed Sims because he handles RHB and LHB equally vs Garrett.  And Garrett's chest thumping changed the narrative.  But Sims feels the same way just isn't as loud.  Has repeatedly said in interviews he wants it.  And considering Doolittle is pretty worthless and may fizzle out, that leaves Garrett as the only late inning LHB.

Also Sims is healthy now.  Not saying he will get it or anything.  But it's absolutely 50/50 at best for Garrett

And I say this as someone who just drafted Garrett in the top 250 pre-report because I was titling for closers.

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Cam Bedrosian has been nails this spring while everyone else has been hurt or sucked eggs.  It’ll probably end up being Sims or Garrett, but it’s worth watching bedrosian as spring moves on.   Stranger things have happened 

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scoreless outing for oberg in return from blood clots. hasn't pitched since 2019 but has a chance to close for rox.

https://www.mlb.com/video/scott-olberg-s-scoreless-outing?q=Player%20%3D%20%5B%22Scott%20Oberg%22%5D%20Order%20By%20Timestamp%20DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST

harvey injured in baltimore, scott and valdez prob leading chances for saves if he's seriously hurt.

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Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters on Saturday that Daniel Bard will be the team's closer this season.

Bard's incredible comeback was one of the best stories in baseball last year as he made it all the way back to the major leagues for the first time since 2013. The 35-year-old righty recorded six saves with a 3.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 27/10 K/BB ratio across 24 2/3 innings (23 appearances) last season. With Scott Oberg coming off surgery to prevent blood clots, he'll open the year as the Rockies' stopper. The high-octane offensive environment of Coors Field amplifies the risk factor, relative to other late-round closing options, but he misses enough bats to warrant a roster spot in deeper mixed leagues moving forward.

 

For what its worth.

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Meh's Sleeper Candidates for Saves in 2021

I'm deeply allergic to paying up for saves and this year is no different. Here are some of my favorite sleeper and deep sleeper relievers that I'm either drafting really late or keeping a close eye on to work their way into saves:

1. Nick Wittgren, Cleveland. I'm honestly shocked people are still using a top 100 pick on Karinchak while Tito has already hinted at using him in a stopper role. Wittgren isn't sexy and will have to fend off both Karinchak and Clase, but I think he ends the year with the most saves in Cleveland.

2. Tanner Scott, Baltimore. There aren't many pitchers more injury prone than Hunter Harvey and he's already doubtful for opening day with an oblique strain. Scott's velocity is up in spring and I think he'll get the first shot at the 9th. Control has always been an issue but his stuff is there.

3. Jordan Romano, Toronto. I was big on Romano last year and I think his stuff is nasty. The big question is what will Kirby Yates look like after returning from elbow surgery?

4. Ian Kennedy, Texas. Everyone is presuming Jose Leclerc will be the closer this year, but with his propensity for giving up walks and dingers, I'm betting on more implosions. Kennedy isn't very exciting, but he has that "Closer Experience" managers sometimes gravitate towards. 

5. Kyle Crick, Pittsburgh. Assuming Richard Rodriguez gets off to a good start, he'll likely be one of the first players traded this year as Pittsburgh needs to continue rebuilding. Crick is another one of those nasty stuff/can't stay healthy dudes, but there is some upside if he can pull things together. 

6. Jason Adam & Trevor Megill, Chicago. It's kind of sad watching Kimbrel fall apart, but he's imploding again every outing this spring. The rest of the Cubs bullpen is uninspiring, but SAGNOF!

7. Wade Davis, KC. This is a real longshot, but Dayton Moore has a knack for pulling veteran relievers off the scrap heap and making them great again. He'll have some dudes to pass, including Holland who looked great last year, but his velocity is up this spring and stranger things have happened. 

8. JB Bukauskas, Arizona. This is another longshot, but he's been dominant this spring striking out 9 over 4 scoreless innings, without allowing a hit or walk. 

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^ I want JB Bukauskas on my team for name value alone. 

Is it Boo-Cow-Skas? Or Boo-ka-oo-skas? 

I prefer the latter. 

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And Baltimore's Opening Day closer will not be Hunter Harvey ...

Quote

Orioles placed RHP Hunter Harvey on the 60-day injured list with an oblique strain.

The move clears a spot for Maikel Franco on the 40-man roster. We knew Harvey was going to miss extended time with his oblique injury, but this essentially rules him out through at least mid-May. It's too bad, as he had a real shot to open the year as the primary closer. It's going to be a messy situation, but Tanner Scott and maybe even Cole Sulser could figure in at this point. Not really something to chase in mixed fantasy leagues.

Mar 16, 2021, 2:09 PM ET

 

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On 3/14/2021 at 1:33 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

^ I want JB Bukauskas on my team for name value alone. 

Is it Boo-Cow-Skas? Or Boo-ka-oo-skas? 

I prefer the latter. 

However its pronounced, it'll have to wait. He just got sent down to AAA.

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14 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And Baltimore's Opening Day closer will not be Hunter Harvey ...

 

I think it will be cesar valdez now, although it's definitely up in the air.

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