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Sandy Alcantara 2021 Outlook


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Sandy was never a guy I expected to end up all in on, yet here we are. 

Alcantara seems to be really growing as a pitcher. He throws 4 pitches and all are fairly effective. In 2020 his 4-seam, changeup, and sinker were above average in terms of break (both horizontal and vertical). He was a quality start machine, and he has strong fastball velocity. This feels like a guy who could just click and really start to roll through linenups. 

Baseball savant does this thing where they compare a player to other players based on velocity and movement. The 5 for Alcantara? 2019 Brandon Woodruff, 2019 Mike Foltyknewicz, 2019 Joe Ross, 2019 Jose Urena, 2019 Luis Castillo. 

What's appealing is the similarities to two guys who take really nice steps forward this year (Castillo and Woodruff). 

Alcantara just turned 25 years old this fall, so while he's been around a minute, he's still really young. He just posted the best BB/9 and K/9 (3.2 and 8.4) of his career. His xFIP saw a massive drop from 5.17 to 4.04 this past year. His LOB% was, IMO, a little LOW (64% but was 73% or higher his previous 3 years), but still ended up with a 3.00 ERA. 

I think if we starting seeing more sliders and changeups from Alcantara we could see the K rate hop up to at least 1 per inning. He has a 30%+ whiff rate on each of those 2 pitches, but they're thrown substantially less than the fastball/sinker (understandable). 

Point is, this guy is just now entering his age 25 season and a lot of things look good for more possible growth. We have to remember ballplayers are professional athletes always honing their craft. While numbers may easily show if past results were justified they don't really tell us anything about how a player is going to change his game going forward. However, the pieces are here for Alcantara to take a step forward.

Right now on NFC he's being drafted after Lance McCullers Jr., Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez, Chris Paddack and Zack Greinke. I believe I'd take him over any of them in a redraft, and above any with the exception of Sixto in a dynasty. At ADP 132 he's looking like a pretty solid value. 

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If last year is for real, he is definitely intriguing. Certainly worth a last pick / $1 price, just don't see myself paying anything more. Hard to make too many conclusions off of 7 starts.

To me his biggest strength is the durability and ability to go deep, so maybe some extra value in QS leagues.

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

If last year is for real, he is definitely intriguing. Certainly worth a last pick / $1 price, just don't see myself paying anything more. Hard to make too many conclusions off of 7 starts.

To me his biggest strength is the durability and ability to go deep, so maybe some extra value in QS leagues.


extra value is understating it.  He had a QS in 6/7 starts lol.  He’s a QS MACHINE!  I also know that it’s not good to make conclusions off of 6 starts, but the dudes pitches are nasty, nothing looks unsustainable, and don’t forget he had a really good season in 2019 too, but not as good as 2020

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/16/2020 at 9:22 AM, sngehl01 said:

Sandy was never a guy I expected to end up all in on, yet here we are. 

Alcantara seems to be really growing as a pitcher. He throws 4 pitches and all are fairly effective. In 2020 his 4-seam, changeup, and sinker were above average in terms of break (both horizontal and vertical). He was a quality start machine, and he has strong fastball velocity. This feels like a guy who could just click and really start to roll through linenups. 

Baseball savant does this thing where they compare a player to other players based on velocity and movement. The 5 for Alcantara? 2019 Brandon Woodruff, 2019 Mike Foltyknewicz, 2019 Joe Ross, 2019 Jose Urena, 2019 Luis Castillo. 

What's appealing is the similarities to two guys who take really nice steps forward this year (Castillo and Woodruff). 

Alcantara just turned 25 years old this fall, so while he's been around a minute, he's still really young. He just posted the best BB/9 and K/9 (3.2 and 8.4) of his career. His xFIP saw a massive drop from 5.17 to 4.04 this past year. His LOB% was, IMO, a little LOW (64% but was 73% or higher his previous 3 years), but still ended up with a 3.00 ERA. 

I think if we starting seeing more sliders and changeups from Alcantara we could see the K rate hop up to at least 1 per inning. He has a 30%+ whiff rate on each of those 2 pitches, but they're thrown substantially less than the fastball/sinker (understandable). 

Point is, this guy is just now entering his age 25 season and a lot of things look good for more possible growth. We have to remember ballplayers are professional athletes always honing their craft. While numbers may easily show if past results were justified they don't really tell us anything about how a player is going to change his game going forward. However, the pieces are here for Alcantara to take a step forward.

Right now on NFC he's being drafted after Lance McCullers Jr., Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez, Chris Paddack and Zack Greinke. I believe I'd take him over any of them in a redraft, and above any with the exception of Sixto in a dynasty. At ADP 132 he's looking like a pretty solid value. 

This is one of my top targets for a breakout 2021. Being completely overlooked and has all the tools to be elite. Trying to acquire him in every one of my leagues - and it’s awesome because he’s so damn cheap.

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  • 2 months later...

It’s amazing that a guy with high 90s heat and a deep repertoire like Sandy can go under the radar.

 

Most people are eying Sixto because of the Pedro Martinez comparisons but I think Sandy is the one that will be top 20 in 2021

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29 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

sandy is nasty. Elieser hernandez and pablo lopez are nasty too and will be cheaper. Fan of the whole marlins rotation right now.

And they have Max Meyer coming up.  Alcántara Sixto López Elieser Rogers Meyer. Almost ridiculous 

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59 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

Chances he finishes as a top 30 SP this season?

He probably overperformed last year, but he made nice strides from 2019.

The Marlins aren't afraid to let Alcantara go deep into games (197 IP in 2019, already going 5 innings in Spring), which will be a key factor in his value for the current year.

He has incredible stuff, but it hasn't translated to elite strikeouts yet. His velocity actually increase significantly last year based on Brooks Baseball, and that has translated so far in Spring based on Statcast velocity.

If he can continue to improve by increasing strikeouts, maintaining increase in velocity, and giving length in games, he can easily be a top 30 pitcher. I would consider his ceiling not to be very high, although there is always the potential for him to have a 2018 Gerrit Cole like transformation and all the sudden start striking people out with the stuff he has. His floor is very high, given the innings pitched, and even if he stagnates in progress he is probably a high 3's ERA pitcher which is serviceable. His composite ADP is at 153 (SP44) as of now, which seems very fair.

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8 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

sandy is nasty. Elieser hernandez and pablo lopez are nasty too and will be cheaper. Fan of the whole marlins rotation right now.

Lopez has the highest ADP of that rotation.

Lopez: 130

Sixto: 133

Alcantara: 141

Hernandez: 244

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  • 2 weeks later...

Marlins ace this year, and that isn't just a joke anymore. He'll be very solid, I'm trying to draft him everywhere as a #4.

May even surprise with the K's as he has the stuff to be a good K guy. Could be one of only a dozen or so arms to top 180 frames too.

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On 3/27/2021 at 10:12 PM, swfcdan said:

Marlins ace this year, and that isn't just a joke anymore. He'll be very solid, I'm trying to draft him everywhere as a #4.

May even surprise with the K's as he has the stuff to be a good K guy. Could be one of only a dozen or so arms to top 180 frames too.

Might have undersold him, could be a genuine ace this year. Top 20 SP season incoming. 

That 92mph changeup yesterday made the Rays look clueless.

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Did anyone watching the game notice his FB command? Was he pounding the target or was the catcher reaching around? His walk rate always seemed concerning to me. 

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10 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Did anyone watching the game notice his FB command? Was he pounding the target or was the catcher reaching around? His walk rate always seemed concerning to me. 

Mix and match.  He had some moments where he lost control, but also hit his spots a lot.  The walks are always going to be a part of alcantara's game, but he always has a good pitch count somehow so I don't worry about it as much as other pitchers.  Loads of groundballs

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