Keldon Johnson 2020-2021 Outlook

[andy1234 176]

9 minutes ago, Obliviate said:

Yo dawg when i read this, i had to drop Dinwiddie straight up as well lol. I feel like Kyrie is bound to get injured as per usual but f--- it lesgoooooo

I would drop Dinwiddie too, but would you drop Hayes or Bazely? Those are my worst players in my 12 team league.

[Obliviate 159]

4 minutes ago, andy1234 said:

I would drop Dinwiddie too, but would you drop Hayes or Bazely? Those are my worst players in my 12 team league.

I feel like Bazely will ball out yo, i believe there's hype on that man right now if im not mistaken. 

[andy1234 176]

Just now, Obliviate said:

I feel like Bazely will ball out yo, i believe there's hype on that man right now if im not mistaken. 

I'm huge on Bazely this year as many others are and I like Hayes a lot since he's in the driver seat in Detroit. But this thread is making Johnson seem like a must add in a 12 teamer and these are literally my worst options. I'm torn.

[RAGINGROOSTER 205]

25 minutes ago, Obliviate said:

Yo dawg when i read this, i had to drop Dinwiddie straight up as well lol. I feel like Kyrie is bound to get injured as per usual but f--- it lesgoooooo

I feel you man but there is another beast named KD we can't forget. I don't see the same production from this guy as last year's. Gotta go for the upside! Hopefully Pop doesn't screw us all lol.

[MysticPeak 439]

Not convinced with the steals. All 3 were just luck.

 

Wait for auto-replay, it'll show how he got all 3 steals: https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=STL&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000017&PlayerID=1629640&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612759&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

Edited December 24, 2020 by MysticPeak

[DezedandConfused 2,989]

5 hours ago, Crazycanto said:

Under the radar performance in the bubble, and now starting for the Spurs on opening night.  

Obviously sustainable shooting percentages, but might be something to see here, or under Pop may very well be the next Bryn Forbes. 

I'm going to be optimistic, seems to be flying under the radar of the higher profile Game 1 sleepers of Okoro and Williams.  

 

Let's all hope he's not the next Bryn Forbes.

[Monkeyking69 286]

1. Didn't watch the spurs game despite having dejounte murray... contemplating this dude or Josh Jackson.....

[mattshhh 217]

College stats possibly a better indicator of what his season could look like unless he becomes the first volume 60% 3-point shooter

Season	School	Conf	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS		SOS
2018-19	Kentucky	SEC	37	36	30.7	4.6	10.1	.461	3.4	6.9	.498	1.2	3.2	.381	2.9	4.2	.703	1.3	4.5	5.9	1.6	0.8	0.2	1.6	2.2	13.5		10.29

Important to note he was still efficient, with solid rebounding and low defensive stats. He's obviously grown as a player in this time, but Kentucky ain't the NBA and 31 minutes would be a blessing

[rob0403 1,234]

30 minutes ago, MysticPeak said:

Not convinced with the steals. All 3 were just luck.

 

Wait for auto-replay, it'll show how he got all 3 steals: https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=STL&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000017&PlayerID=1629640&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612759&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

Yeah it looks fluky. He still got 1.0+ steals last year in the bubble so maybe he can get a steal from time to time, if not from the system.

[cbsholy 661]

32 minutes ago, MysticPeak said:

Not convinced with the steals. All 3 were just luck.

 

Wait for auto-replay, it'll show how he got all 3 steals: https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=STL&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000017&PlayerID=1629640&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612759&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

Thanks for the link. Although those do seem fluky, I wouldnt necessarily fault him for that. But I agree with your sentiment. If he averages 1.0stl that's not really that great for my particular team, and he has no SG eligibility so I'll probably pass on him. Totally depends how your team is set up as to whether or not this guy looks valuable imo. 

[megamike69 26]

What % FAAB is sensible?

 

[worldclass 163]

3 hours ago, mattshhh said:

College stats possibly a better indicator of what his season could look like unless he becomes the first volume 60% 3-point shooter

Season	School	Conf	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS		SOS
2018-19	Kentucky	SEC	37	36	30.7	4.6	10.1	.461	3.4	6.9	.498	1.2	3.2	.381	2.9	4.2	.703	1.3	4.5	5.9	1.6	0.8	0.2	1.6	2.2	13.5		10.29

Important to note he was still efficient, with solid rebounding and low defensive stats. He's obviously grown as a player in this time, but Kentucky ain't the NBA and 31 minutes would be a blessing

 

Playing for Pop aint like playing for Calipari. When has Pop been known to play a talented young player who is weak on D & isn't deserving of the minutes?

This is the same organization that turned Kawhi's 29% from three into 37%. Thats harder to do than teach a guy to take more swipes at the ball on D.

[j3rkthenurk 932]

6 hours ago, megamike69 said:

What % FAAB is sensible?

 

 

100

[rob0403 1,234]

Is it just me or is starting for Pop a big deal? Like the Spurs don't just put players out there unless they are looking at them long term.

So does Keldon have a permenant role if they keep winning?

[xlosingmyedgex 361]

40 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

Is it just me or is starting for Pop a big deal? Like the Spurs don't just put players out there unless they are looking at them long term.

So does Keldon have a permenant role if they keep winning?

 

Considering Bryn Forbes played third most minutes on the team for the last two seasons, even when they were losing, I would say yes. It's probably pretty permanent.

[brickcitymamba 318]

Must-add in deeper leagues?

[Espoiral 478]

Very small sample size, but he was ranked 42nd in 9cat in the bubble and didn't even start until the final game.

Make of that wat you will.

[westbrookballin92 12]

I went ahead and picked him up, as my other bids didn't go through. Only thing i'm not sure on here is where do we see his main value coming from? Doesn't appear to be more than a steal and 0.3 block per game guy, and probably in the 16-5-2 range. Is it the fact that he's likely to be efficient? Psyched to have him now, but trying to see his path to top 80-100 value and not sure how he achieves it. Any insight is appreciated!

[richg24 1,773]

10 minutes ago, westbrookballin92 said:

I went ahead and picked him up, as my other bids didn't go through. Only thing i'm not sure on here is where do we see his main value coming from? Doesn't appear to be more than a steal and 0.3 block per game guy, and probably in the 16-5-2 range. Is it the fact that he's likely to be efficient? Psyched to have him now, but trying to see his path to top 80-100 value and not sure how he achieves it. Any insight is appreciated!

16-5-2 is nowhere near his ceiling. that could be close to season averages depending on his progress, but I think he will have months where he goes off and averages like 22-7-2 with a sprinkle of everything else on above average efficiency. those stats you posted are basically what he averaged in the bubble, off the bench, in only 26 mpg. now imagine what he can do as the season progresses and he becomes more comfortable and is the full fledged starter getting 30-32 mpg. juicy. 

[tazdingo 363]

4 minutes ago, richg24 said:

16-5-2 is nowhere near his ceiling. that could be close to season averages depending on his progress, but I think he will have months where he goes off and averages like 22-7-2 with a sprinkle of everything else on above average efficiency. those stats you posted are basically what he averaged in the bubble, off the bench, in only 26 mpg. now imagine what he can do as the season progresses and he becomes more comfortable and is the full fledged starter getting 30-32 mpg. juicy. 

 

Your projections seem a bit unrealistic for a 3rd or 4th option on the starting unit. Let's not forget DeRozan, LMA, and Dejounte are still alive in there. While Keldon did take majority of the shots in the first and 2nd quarter, that all changed once the 3rd and 4th quarter came and LMA & DeRozan did what they do best.

16-5-2 is more than what I can hope for unless one of those 3 bigger names goes down, gets traded, or if Pop legitimately tells those 3 "Screw you guys, give Keldon all the shots from now on."

[RunCMC 2,534]

Pickup now ask questions later. I'll admit, haven't done alot of research on him either.

Beginning of the season , gotta pounce on all breakout sleepers & waiver wire gems. Never know who ends up being a league winner until it's too late.

Any die hard Spurs fan out here.  What are some reasonable expectations #'s + %'s wise ?

Does he shoot the 3-ball well , and what are his stocks potential if any. 

I randomly have a rookie silver card of his , so let the man blow up I'm saying ! 😛

 

 

[rob0403 1,234]

16-5-2 sounds realistic to me too. I hope he has better than 70% ft too, that would add a point and more value but you never know until he shoots a lot.

Next step up will be star level player, which probably won't happen this year. Like someone said, if they take the next step in the system and move away from DeRozan.

Maybe I am looking too far ahead but if someone trades them a legit modern young C for Derozan and or LMA, might open things up for all the wings including Keldon.

[kball09 1,069]

Ok, so, based on college and the super small pro sample, let's go with:

-solid FG% for a guard

-Free throws likely to stay in that low 70s range, so hurts you a little there

-Blocks likely aren't happening, but he's a guard, whatever

- Steal rate isn't anything special, let's say 1 per game is reasonable

- Decent 3p%

- Assists kinda weak for a guard

 

Obviously room to grow blah blah blah, but he really needs to stay around 30 MPG to have trustworthy value. Someone to probably sell high before White gets back unless he blows up in the next few weeks.

 

[RAGINGROOSTER 205]

59 minutes ago, kball09 said:

Ok, so, based on college and the super small pro sample, let's go with:

-solid FG% for a guard

-Free throws likely to stay in that low 70s range, so hurts you a little there

-Blocks likely aren't happening, but he's a guard, whatever

- Steal rate isn't anything special, let's say 1 per game is reasonable

- Decent 3p%

- Assists kinda weak for a guard

 

Obviously room to grow blah blah blah, but he really needs to stay around 30 MPG to have trustworthy value. Someone to probably sell high before White gets back unless he blows up in the next few weeks.

 

He's put in work during the 4 month off-season due to COVID, which translated into his surprising performance in the bubble. He worked on his shooting and handle. He definitely was not a standout athlete from his college per se, but with the sample size from the bubble and the trust from POP, I am jumping on this hype train. My loss was Dinwiddie; not gonna grimace over that.

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by RAGINGROOSTER

[rob0403 1,234]

Btw, Jaylen Brown had a 20-6.5-2 line with 1 STL and similar projected percentages. I think that's his absolute ceiling this year.

 

So averaging anything close to the last game will be pretty good already. He just had to stay on track.

 

Is White really a usage guy? I think he had an ok 20% usage which is common among starters?

Edited December 24, 2020 by rob0403