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Keldon Johnson 2020-2021 Outlook


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43 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

Btw, Jaylen Brown had a 20-6.5-2 line with 1 STL and similar projected percentages. I think that's his absolute ceiling this year.

 

So averaging anything close to the last game will be pretty good already. He just had to stay on track.

 

Is White really a usage guy? I think he had an ok 20% usage which is common among starters?

 

Usage went up in the bubble for White, so there's a possibility that he has a strong year. Keldon has improved at each stage in his career, and I don't see that stopping. If you want a look at his ceiling, check out his G League numbers, not the college ones. His 3pt shot comes and goes, but is slowly becoming more consistent.

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He might be a kitchen psychologist, but he's spot on about what you're doing.

We don't all play in 8 or 10 teamers.

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29 minutes ago, ROTY said:

This kid will suffer when White returns. People just skipping over the fact their best player is injured. Yes that's right, White is their best player, that wasn't a typo

You must’ve gotten outbid for him, damn. And started hitting the eggnog a bit early I see! Feliz navidad killa!

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39 minutes ago, ROTY said:

This kid will suffer when White returns. People just skipping over the fact their best player is injured. Yes that's right, White is their best player, that wasn't a typo

Good thing he still put up top-50 numbers with White around in the bubble.

Sure, that's without Aldridge but they play different positions.

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50 minutes ago, ROTY said:

This kid will suffer when White returns. People just skipping over the fact their best player is injured. Yes that's right, White is their best player, that wasn't a typo

 

Well White can replace Lonnie at SG. Keldon is a better choice at SF compared to Vassell or Walker so i suppose he ll keep his spot.

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2 hours ago, ROTY said:

This kid will suffer when White returns. People just skipping over the fact their best player is injured. Yes that's right, White is their best player, that wasn't a typo

Wasn't he playing with white in the bubble? Wasn't that when everyone recognized how great a player he is? 

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1 hour ago, ShopHeirlooms said:

You must’ve gotten outbid for him, damn. And started hitting the eggnog a bit early I see! Feliz navidad killa!

He wouldn't make the last spot in my teams homie 😂

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2 minutes ago, indigorivers said:

Wasn't he playing with white in the bubble? Wasn't that when everyone recognized how great a player he is? 

Those 3 nice bubble games he shot .700, 0.67, 0.67 from the field. You sure that's gonna stick? He looks nice but if you think he's a waiver wire of the year candidate you're wrong. Unless Spurs trade DD of LMA he won't have a major impact this year. Last 2 spot guy on a champ team, maybe

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Just now, ROTY said:

Those 3 nice bubble games he shot .700, 0.67, 0.67 from the field. You sure that's gonna stick? He looks nice but if you think he's a waiver wire of the year candidate you're wrong. Unless Spurs trade DD of LMA he won't have a major impact this year. Last 2 spot guy on a champ team, maybe

I definitely don't think that, but he's a guy that does alot for a team when youre playing fast. So if they're planning on speeding the team up when White comes back, then i'm sure he'll fit right in.

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Been thinking about dropping Nerlens Noel for him while he's still on waivers in my 10-teamer 9-cat league. Bit of a dice roll but he looks to have solid upside and I've got plenty of strong bigs for blocks and boards, while I'm lacking a bit in shooting efficiency, 3ptm and points. Also have Rubio still rostered. Any thoughts?

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4 hours ago, ROTY said:

Those 3 nice bubble games he shot .700, 0.67, 0.67 from the field. You sure that's gonna stick? He looks nice but if you think he's a waiver wire of the year candidate you're wrong. Unless Spurs trade DD of LMA he won't have a major impact this year. Last 2 spot guy on a champ team, maybe

 

I'm confused. If you think he looks nice and could find himself on a championship team, and he's doing it from day 1, how is he not a candidate for waiver wire add of the year?

LaMarcus Aldridge is strictly a center these days, and it appears DeMar DeRozan will primarily be playing PF. These guys don't appear to be blocking KJ in any super meaningful way, and they're rumored to be on the trade block anyway. 

Pops trusted this kid with the starting SF job on opening night and gave him 32 minutes, despite his returning from injury and missing the entire preseason. This was our first glimpse of KJ following his breakout performance in the bubble, and he responded with top 75 numbers. Last year, the top waiver addition in my main league was Devonte' Graham, who finished #78 overall. Can't really ask for more.

Regarding his numbers... His 2-point shooting percentage in the NBA is 59.5%. In the g-league, it was 61.1%. He just turned 21 and supposedly gained 8 pounds of muscle in the offseason, so I would not be surprised to see him at least remain consistent in this area. Even if his three-point shooting regresses to like 33.3%, he will absolutely be a difference maker in FG%.

I'm thinking that if the minutes are there, these numbers appear to be his floor: 

FG: 47%

FT: 77%

3s: 1.2

PTS: 15

REB: 6

AST: 2

STL: 1.1

BLK: 0.2

TO: 1.5

That's right about top 100 value. But there is evidence his FG% may land closer to 50%, and with an NBA per-36 steal rate of 1.8, he may be a difference maker there as well. Plus values in those categories could push him into the top 60. Lastly, I would not be surprised to see his free-throw shooting, three-point shooting, and assist numbers slowly creep up as well, but that may take some time. Any improvement in those areas would be gravy.

If you play in super shallow leagues, that's totally fine and still a lot of fun (maybe even more fun if/when you find yourself in catchup mode), but don't come in here telling people they're "wrong" for getting hyped on a kid when all evidence says getting hyped is perfectly reasonable.

Will Derrick White's return affect KJ? Maybe. They play different positions and White's presence in the bubble didn't affect him, but I suppose one more body needing minutes never helps. Either way, until we see how it shakes out, KJ absolutely needs to be rostered in all but the shallowest leagues.

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1 hour ago, MrCantaloupe said:

I'm thinking that if the minutes are there, these numbers appear to be his floor: 

FG: 47%

FT: 77%

3s: 1.2

PTS: 15

REB: 6

AST: 2

STL: 1.1

BLK: 0.2

TO: 1.5

 

So many of these numbers are nowhere near his floor. 

He shot 46% in college, but 47% is his floor?

He shot 70% from the FT line in college, but 77% is his floor?

He had less than a steal in 30 minutes per game in college, but 1.1 is his floor?

1.6 TOs in college, but 1.5 is his floor?

 

I mean.....wtf. I think he might be a solid pickup but this is some really weird cherry picking.

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Usually when I don’t see much in a player, I don’t add him, and I don’t be going out of my way to go into his his player discussion threads and go “yeah man he sucks”

Dude sounds salty af for no reason lol

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I like Keldon and hope he can stay consistent. I would say the biggest cons are playing with Pop and Derrick White coming back. I have learned over the years to not trust whatever Pop has planned. He could easily be coming off the bench in the next game and it wouldn't surprise me at all. Derrick whites return won't destroy him but it certainly doesn't help. Pops going to play each game by ear and go for matchups so it'll be interesting to see what happens. I think there is risk of him falling off a cliff vs let's say a Patrick Williams who seems safer for sure. But the upside is him staying in the starting lineup and consistently getting PT as well as a Derozan trade would do wonders assuming they don't get another startable wing back. There's no fun without some risk! 

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46 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

So many of these numbers are nowhere near his floor. 

He shot 46% in college, but 47% is his floor?

He shot 70% from the FT line in college, but 77% is his floor?

He had less than a steal in 30 minutes per game in college, but 1.1 is his floor?

1.6 TOs in college, but 1.5 is his floor?

 

I mean.....wtf. I think he might be a solid pickup but this is some really weird cherry picking.

I think we are all not picking up Keldon Johnson for his performance from college. He was drafted 29th because scouts says he has no skills to bank on except some athleticism out of college.

I think we are looking at his strong run in the NBA last year and the fact he made it into one of Popp's rotations even after the injury and no preseason. That's not easy. He's got a pretty good 3 and D game going on right now.

So I won't say the numbers are nowhere near his floor. It sounds I would think it's more of 75%ish ft. 1.1 stl is reasonable from his NBA performance.

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16 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

I think we are all not picking up Keldon Johnson for his performance from college. He was drafted 29th because scouts says he has no skills to bank on except some athleticism out of college.

I think we are looking at his strong run in the NBA last year and the fact he made it into one of Popp's rotations even after the injury and no preseason. That's not easy. He's got a pretty good 3 and D game going on right now.

So I won't say the numbers are nowhere near his floor. It sounds I would think it's more of 75%ish ft. 1.1 stl is reasonable from his NBA performance.

Or maybe because Pop has no better options.

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25 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

I think we are all not picking up Keldon Johnson for his performance from college. He was drafted 29th because scouts says he has no skills to bank on except some athleticism out of college.

I think we are looking at his strong run in the NBA last year and the fact he made it into one of Popp's rotations even after the injury and no preseason. That's not easy. He's got a pretty good 3 and D game going on right now.

So I won't say the numbers are nowhere near his floor. It sounds I would think it's more of 75%ish ft. 1.1 stl is reasonable from his NBA performance.

 

Yeah, that's more than fair. I just think a lot of people fall into the trap of expecting baselines from very small sample sizes because they like to rosterbate, more or less. But better to jump on a guy too early than too late.

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3 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

I'm confused. If you think he looks nice and could find himself on a championship team, and he's doing it from day 1, how is he not a candidate for waiver wire add of the year?

LaMarcus Aldridge is strictly a center these days, and it appears DeMar DeRozan will primarily be playing PF. These guys don't appear to be blocking KJ in any super meaningful way, and they're rumored to be on the trade block anyway. 

Pops trusted this kid with the starting SF job on opening night and gave him 32 minutes, despite his returning from injury and missing the entire preseason. This was our first glimpse of KJ following his breakout performance in the bubble, and he responded with top 75 numbers. Last year, the top waiver addition in my main league was Devonte' Graham, who finished #78 overall. Can't really ask for more.

Regarding his numbers... His 2-point shooting percentage in the NBA is 59.5%. In the g-league, it was 61.1%. He just turned 21 and supposedly gained 8 pounds of muscle in the offseason, so I would not be surprised to see him at least remain consistent in this area. Even if his three-point shooting regresses to like 33.3%, he will absolutely be a difference maker in FG%.

I'm thinking that if the minutes are there, these numbers appear to be his floor: 

FG: 47%

FT: 77%

3s: 1.2

PTS: 15

REB: 6

AST: 2

STL: 1.1

BLK: 0.2

TO: 1.5

That's right about top 100 value. But there is evidence his FG% may land closer to 50%, and with an NBA per-36 steal rate of 1.8, he may be a difference maker there as well. Plus values in those categories could push him into the top 60. Lastly, I would not be surprised to see his free-throw shooting, three-point shooting, and assist numbers slowly creep up as well, but that may take some time. Any improvement in those areas would be gravy.

If you play in super shallow leagues, that's totally fine and still a lot of fun (maybe even more fun if/when you find yourself in catchup mode), but don't come in here telling people they're "wrong" for getting hyped on a kid when all evidence says getting hyped is perfectly reasonable.

Will Derrick White's return affect KJ? Maybe. They play different positions and White's presence in the bubble didn't affect him, but I suppose one more body needing minutes never helps. Either way, until we see how it shakes out, KJ absolutely needs to be rostered in all but the shallowest leagues.

 

Soooo Keldon < vs > Shake Milton ? :) 

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2 hours ago, kball09 said:

 

So many of these numbers are nowhere near his floor. 

He shot 46% in college, but 47% is his floor?

He shot 70% from the FT line in college, but 77% is his floor?

He had less than a steal in 30 minutes per game in college, but 1.1 is his floor?

1.6 TOs in college, but 1.5 is his floor?

 

I mean.....wtf. I think he might be a solid pickup but this is some really weird cherry picking.

 

Yes, he shot 46.1% as a freshman in college, but he shot 54.1% in amost double the sample size in the g-league and NBA despite his shooting 30.3% from three, so yes, 47% is absolutely his floor and it would take some severe regression or increase in three-point attempts to get there. Players from Kentucky routinely outperform when they get to the NBA and rarely do second year players regress, so I don't think regression is something we should worry about too much.

He was a 78% free throw shooter in high school. What he did at Kentucky can mostly be attributed to nerves as it was his first time playing on a national stage: he shot 67% in his first 6 games (49 attempts, taken more than 2 years ago), but improved to 84.3% over the next 17, before trailing off again during conference and the ncaa tournament, 66.7% (only 15 attempts). His free throw shooting since leaving Kentucky sits at 77% (summer league, preseason, g-league, NBA), and he's made 33 of his last 37 attempts, 89.2%. All the evidence shows us this is an improving player and there's really no reason to believe he will regress to what he did one month after his 19th birthday. You choose only his college stats and you're calling me a cherry-picker??? All I did to analyze his free throw rate was choose what he's shown us as a pro over the last 20 months, which is more than reasonable.

Regarding his steals, it all comes down to minutes played, and I was sure to preface my opinion with that very fact. His per 36 steal rate over the last year (g-league and NBA) is 1.54, which he accomplished over 793 minutes (the equivalent of a 22 game sample size at 36 min per game). He's been even better since playing for the Spurs and immediately was a difference maker in his first game back from injury, securing 3 steals in 32 minutes. The dude was drafted because of his defensive ability and potential and it's been a long time since he played for Kentucky. If he was the same guy he was, Pop would not be starting him. So yeah, if the minutes are there, 1.1 is a reasonable floor and I honestly don't understand how you could think otherwise.

Regarding turnovers, they are simply a product of usage. He was a 22.7% usage guy in college when he averaged 1.6 turnovers per game, and 26.5% usage in the g-league when he averaged 2.6. Seems unlikely he reaches that type of usage this year. If he does, I suppose the turnovers will come with it, but fantasy owners won't be complaining. My projected turnover floor is more reflective of what he might produce in relation to his other floor stats. Didn't think that would need to be said, but here we are.

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