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Robert Williams 2020-2021 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, mtx said:

So why isn't he getting 25 mins a night then if he's so good? Are the armchair fantasy GMs better than the Boston coaches and management? I am seriously baffled.

 

Stevens just started Tremont Waters after playing 6 minutes this season. 

Baffling is the right word. 

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He has the perfect schedule this week to stream/take a flier. Plays mid wk b2b and 4 total games this wk on empty nights. If it doesn’t work out in the 4 games this wk, enjoy the blocks for your match

GIVE THIS GUY SOME DECENT F UCKING PLAYIN TIME BRAD STEVENS URE SUCHA F UCKING A SSHOLE

The DimeLord 

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Guys, he got most of his minutes in garbage time but stayed in after the game tightened late in the 4th.  I understand why Brad doesn’t trust this guy.  He has a tendency to turn the ball over and is often out of position on defense.  

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Williams is a bit like Boucher.  When given mins they produce stats and so fantasy players overrate the living $h!t out of them.  Williams can't not foul and is STILL learning how to play the way Stevens wants.  Safe to say he's not going to get consistent mins any time soon.  Having said that just like Toronto Boston's bigman department isn't far from being complete trash so he will get run, it's just a matter of living with the dud games and accepting he's going to be feast or famine.

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41 minutes ago, fabrar said:

Picked him up, hope the minutes stay somewhat steady lol 

20 minutes enough for timelord to produce fantasy value in 12-team format. Looks like he’ll get them. I picked him up. 

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5 minutes ago, ComeOnAndSlam said:

Williams is a bit like Boucher.  When given mins they produce stats and so fantasy players overrate the living $h!t out of them.  Williams can't not foul and is STILL learning how to play the way Stevens wants.  Safe to say he's not going to get consistent mins any time soon.  Having said that just like Toronto Boston's bigman department isn't far from being complete trash so he will get run, it's just a matter of living with the dud games and accepting he's going to be feast or famine.

 

Overrated? Can't not foul? He's owned in only 6.1% of ESPN leagues despite being ranked 71st overall in only 16.6 minutes per game, and his per 36 foul rate on the year is only 2.8, which would have ranked 5th lowest for Centers in 2019-20.

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1 minute ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Overrated? Can't not foul? He's owned in only 6.1% of ESPN leagues despite being ranked 71st overall in only 16.6 minutes per game, and his per 36 foul rate on the year is only 2.8, which would have ranked 5th lowest for Centers in 2019-20.

🎤 drop

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I watched the game just like 75% of today's comments in this thread. I EVALUATE the plays, just like Brad Stevens does to dish out minutes. I saw two follow dunks on misses. I saw a lob or two from the midget PGs. I saw run down a rebound and tip it to Pritchard. I saw multiple contests at the rim, some blocks some just altered shots. I saw even down 30, Nurse never gave up and was playing 3 starters even during "garbage time". I know what I saw and wrote on my yellow pad. Ain't nobody gonna tell me what I saw or didn't see.

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Dunno what some of you are watching, but I've watched the last 4 games the Celts played (including tonight), and Time Lord looks pretty good. Incredible energy and hustles for every ball. Some of the shots he doesn't block he changes and he often would've gotten a dunk or a block if his teammates didn't commit a foul or something.

I will say that some of his turnovers are pretty unfortunate (e.g. he grabs an OReb, gets stuck falling out of bounds or in traffic and throws it away), and he plays rather physically so I'm just expecting him to get injured at some point.  Defensively, he trails plays to go for chasedown blocks, which sometimes lends to him being out of position, though his long arms allow him to make some pretty nice blocks anyway, if he doesn't get called for a foul. He also doesn't have much of an offensive game, as his shots are basically feeds for easy dunks or putbacks.  IMO he doesn't really play like Whiteside, but more like Faried or Holmes, smaller Cs who have incredible leaping ability.

And lastly, I haven't seen him get much time, if at all, alongside Theis or TT (who usually play next to each other or on their own).  As far as to why he doesn't get minutes, I think his injury history and playstyle lends him to be more coddled, while Theis and TT's experience are better suited to play alongside Brown, Smart, and Tatum.

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Celtics fan here who has seen a ton of Timelord: His strengths are as a P+R roll man with his leaping ability, has a good feel for just being near the rim for either a putback dunk or as an alleyoop outlet for when our guards/wings get into the lane, he's also flashed some passing ability as well. Really good shot blocker - has the length, instincts, and hops to be one of the best, but still bites on too many pumps and gets caught out of position more often than our other more experienced bigs, especially defending the P+R. But all-in-all he brings the athleticism/energy on both ends and has probably been our best big so far in this 8 game sample size. He would eat in fantasy if he could get to 24+ minutes

The problem is there's no real path to him getting there. The 2 bigs lineup that Brad has been starting games and experimenting with hasn't fared well at all - on offense or on defense. Going forward I expect to see less and less of it, as it's clear the Celts have better spacing and better results with Tatum or Grant at the 4 and only using 1 of the Ts (Theis, Timelord, Thompson) at a time. So that means there's really only the 48 minutes at C to split up between all the 3 T's except for niche matchups. That puts a hard cap on his minutes and upside. So even if Timelord is deserving of more minutes (and he is), I can promise you they aren't gonna freeze out the more experienced Theis or TT in order to do that.

TLDR: he gud but 2 big lineup sux so minutes won't be there

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5 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

his per 36 foul rate on the year is only 2.8, which would have ranked 5th lowest for Centers in 2019-20.

 

I don't know why you're cherry picking stats from completely different seasons.  If you want to compare 2019-20 numbers then use Williams' 2019-20 per 36 fouls per game, which was 4.7.  That's outside the top 50 centers.  If you want to go by his current per36 of 2.8 then he's in the top 20 however he's the only one in that list who isn't playing 25+ mpg other than Frank Kaminsky, Jalen Smith, or Aleksej Pokusevski.  Suffice to say A) you shouldn't read much into per36 numbers ever if at all and B) it's definitely too early to judge extrapolated numbers of this seasons data especially from guys who don't play extended mins.

And yes he is overrated by people playing fantasy the same way Whiteside is every year, Boucher, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles in years past (go look up the threads on here for past seasons), Delon Wright, Dillon Brooks, the list goes on.  % ownership doesn't mean a thing.  Oladipo is 92% owned when it should be close to 100%.  Whiteside is pure trash and is doing nothing yet he's 64% owned.

At least Williams is still young and supposedly learning albeit slowly.  Things might click for him but you would have to be a very optimistic gambler to make that call.

 

1 hour ago, HooDat said:

TLDR: he gud but 2 big lineup sux so minutes won't be there

 

Unfortunately for the Celtics it's probably not going to change anytime soon until/if Kemba comes back or unless Ainge can somehow find a starting caliber PG in a trade without giving up Brown or Tatum. 

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7 hours ago, ComeOnAndSlam said:

 

I don't know why you're cherry picking stats from completely different seasons...

 

You wrote "Williams can't not foul". I simply reviewed his stats from this year (which show you are wrong), and compared them to the last full seasons worth of league data to provide context. That's not cherry-picking.

 

7 hours ago, ComeOnAndSlam said:

 

If you want to [blah blah blah] then use [blah blah blah]. If you want to go by [blah blah blah] then he's in the [blah blah blah] however he's the only one in that [blah blah blah] who [blah blah blah] other than [blah blah blah].

 

There's no need to move the goal posts or over-qualify the data to comical ESPN levels. Over the last quarter of his career (per minutes played), he's committed only 2.6 fouls per 36 minutes. In 5 of 7 games this year, he's committed 1 foul or less, and he's yet to exceed 3 fouls in any game. He hasn't played a whole lot as an NBA player, but in college he averaged only 2 fouls in 25.6 minutes per night, so it's not like he hasn't shown an ability to avoid foul trouble in the past. Whether he keeps this up (down?) remains to be seen, but writing that he can't do it, when he has done it, is flat out wrong.

 

7 hours ago, ComeOnAndSlam said:

 

... Suffice to say A) you shouldn't read much into per36 numbers ever if at all and B ) it's definitely too early to judge extrapolated numbers of this seasons data especially from guys who don't play extended mins.

 

I am not "reading into" his per36 numbers. I simply told you what his foul rate is. There's a difference. Nobody expects him to play even 26, let alone 36 minutes per night. You drew all these conclusions and cited numbers he put up in 388 minutes last season, 269 of which occurred more than a year ago, in a world before freakin' covid, but you claim it's "definitely too early to judge" this years performance in 116 minutes? Yes, the sample size is small, but you can't have your cake and eat it too. Where do you draw the line? Nearly 15% of Robert Williams's career minutes took place in the past two weeks. This data set is absolutely the best and most relevant sample we have to understand the type of player he currently is.

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7 hours ago, ComeOnAndSlam said:

And yes he is overrated by people playing fantasy the same way Whiteside is every year, Boucher, Myles Turner

 

So you don't understand standard deviation math? OK, no problem. Now we can at least move on.

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2 hours ago, CityBaller8 said:

Long story short, we keeping him!!! 
 

from Texas A & M , I see a deandre

 

Haha, I think DeAndre's extra 3 inches and 25 pounds makes a pretty big difference, as well as the former's uncanny ability to gobble up boards.

I do see the strong similarities though, but I would still compare Time Lord more to a Holmes or a Faried type.  Regardless of who he emulates, I'm still happy to stash him given he's my Whiteside replacement, lol.

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3 hours ago, CityBaller8 said:

Long story short, we keeping him!!! 
 

from Texas A & M , I see a deandre

 

18 minutes ago, MWon said:

 

Haha, I think DeAndre's extra 3 inches and 25 pounds makes a pretty big difference, as well as the former's uncanny ability to gobble up boards.

I do see the strong similarities though, but I would still compare Time Lord more to a Holmes or a Faried type.  Regardless of who he emulates, I'm still happy to stash him given he's my Whiteside replacement, lol.

 

I also see some similarities to Ben Wallace.

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I didn't think Brad Stevens liked the matchup against Miami tonight, since he played Rob Williams only 27 total minutes in their 6 game series back in September. Great to see him play almost 15 minutes in what turned out to be a tight game.

Finishing +3 in a 2-point win doesn't hurt, and we can chalk this up as another game with only 1 foul, a mark the Time Lord has not exceeded in 6 of 8 games this year.

However, he subbed out with just over 9 minutes remaining, and didn't re-enter until the final play of the game.

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Geez, last year it was injuries.  This year it's Rona.  My teams are getting slaughtered.  I'm getting used to seeing "health protocol" quite a bit more than I'd like.  At the very least, it's nice that they have the INJ tag immediately, but we should get a quarantine spot as well as an IL spot, haha.

Anyone holding Time Lord? The per-min is nice, but if you're struggling, might be a good time to stream Theis or something.

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21 minutes ago, MWon said:

Geez, last year it was injuries.  This year it's Rona.  My teams are getting slaughtered.  I'm getting used to seeing "health protocol" quite a bit more than I'd like.  At the very least, it's nice that they have the INJ tag immediately, but we should get a quarantine spot as well as an IL spot, haha.

Anyone holding Time Lord? The per-min is nice, but if you're struggling, might be a good time to stream Theis or something.

Theis was picked up in my league yesterday as soon as the questionable blurb came out about Williams and TT. Wondering if they go small ball and play Pritchard more.

I’m holding onto him for now in my IR spot.

 

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Yeah, I grabbed Theis.  Not exactly happy about it because I streamed him before and it was not a fun ordeal.

I could definitely see them using Grant Will or Tatum more at the 5, because Theis isn't made to go 30+ minutes constantly, esp against larger Cs, and as you said, more small ball.  Maybe Tacko Fall gets unleashed?

Really want to drop Time Lord but there's so much hype on him that I'm worried he'll get picked up. TBH, I'm not really scared of him getting used against me or anything.  Just sucks to watch him do well if he breaks out later in the season and someone stashes him from me now in their IL.

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