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2021 Strategy Thread/What We Learned In 2020


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Well, for some of us our season is now over and looking forward to the 2021 season. 2020 was a year for the books. 

 

My takeways from this season:

-Stay away from aging receivers with injury history (I'm looking at you Julio Jones)

-We'll see a lot of RB/RB taken in the first 2 rounds next year.

-I really hate D/ST and leaning towards doing a IDP league.

 

What are your takeaways?

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Same lesson I learn every year.  The fantasy football is a crock of Sh*t and there are thousands of things I can be doing better with my time and money...   With that said....see you guys ne

Don't reach on RB's late in the 1st round when there are top tier WR's or Kelce.  Josh Jacobs, CEH, Joe Mixon, and David Johnson all went ahead of Tyreek, Kelce, and Hopkins in my league.  I would nev

too glib / didn't read

This will sound glib but it is not meant to be so.  The most important strategy is... having one.

So many people go into their draft or auction (if you have no strategy in an auction you are absolutely undone) with no strategy.  They are just flying by the seat of their pants.  Allow me to give you an example of what my strategy was this year in the redraft league I just won.  (Was it a good strategy?  Maybe, maybe not, but I had one.)

I picked at the #5 spot in a PPR Superflex 12-team league.  I learned of my draft slot about a week before the draft.  I began gaming scenarios out from there.  I had a clear top three: McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, in that order.  If any of them were available, I'd take them.  But I knew they'd be gone.  So I did my prep assuming they were out and how should I rank players from there?  In Superflex I like getting a QB early if it's a total stud I know will not "flop."  I was worried about Jackson in his second full season as a starter.  I knew the offense would regress some from its insane high and I thought with more "tape" on him his passing might be slowed down by defenses.  Mahomes's numbers figured to also drop off last year's historical totals but I knew he'd be a lock to be a league-winner type at QB.  So now all I have to figure out is whether to rank someone else ahead of Mahomes or not.  (I only have to rank two players to figure out who I'm taking at five as I already have my top three selected.)  A WR?  I never like taking a WR in the first half of the first round of a draft.  I've done it before and it never seems to work out well.  So now I'm looking at RBs: Kamara, Henry, Cook.  All had knocks for me coming into this season.  Henry doesn't catch passes.  Cook has had health troubles.  I go for safety in the first round, especially above pick #7 or so, based on the adage that "you can't win a league in the first round but you can lose it."  I can't remember now why I ranked Mahomes ahead of Kamara but I ultimately made the draft board McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Mahomes, Kamara, in that order.  When someone took Michael Thomas at #4, I had my pick.  

I put in the work to know that I had to get a RB at pick #20 or #29 because I had worked on my tiers to know that I wouldn't be able to get a guy I was willing to lean on at pick #44.  Again, I had my tiers set up and when pick #20 came around I realized I couldn't wait until #28 and I pulled the trigger on Mixon (I'm moth to the flame for Mixon).  The next picks were almost all RBs and the next RB selected after my next pick (#29) was Lev Bell, showing my strategy worked.  By the way the Mixon pick was bad compared to some of the RBs that went right after: Aaron Jones was #22.  But this isn't about player evaluation, it's about strategy.  The RB run meant Dak fell to #29 in a Superflex.  I badly wanted to take him at #20, but I knew my situation well and, with him and Watson still there at #20, I knew if I passed on QB that worst case some RB I really wanted would fall so I gambled and won.  Dak was my #29 pick.  Now with Mahomes and Dak secured I know that I probably have the top QB unit in a Superflex league, and one that will give me massive week-to-week stability.  This unlocks me to chase upside.

Once I get to the late 3rd or the 4th, I focus almost exclusively on upside.  A 12-teamer is not so deep that you won't be able to find lower-end WR2 or RB2 (especially in PPR) types on the wire.  (Nobody wins because they had two guys in the RB20 range to use as RB2 and a flex.)  What you want is those "big hits."  So I focused on talented WRs and RBs who came with risk but had high ceilings.  I picked Calvin Ridley (who I expected to regress big time this season but the upside was there), Jonathan Taylor (who had more ceiling than him?), Kareem Hunt (same, what if Chubb got hurt?), Stefon Diggs (I, like everyone, thought the move to Buffalo would hurt him but we've see that incredible ability before), and Will Fuller (always awesome when healthy, the prototypical "joker") with my next five picks.  (Remember this is Superflex which pushes a lot of non-QBs down, if you're wondering how some of these guys were available so late.)  Notice along the way that I'm passing on Conner, Carson, Singletary, Gordon, etc., RBs who I just didn't think had a lot of upside.  I wasn't going to grab a starter just because I "needed" an RB2.  I was instead focusing on backup or committee RBs with league-winning upside or WRs who were being shunned for one reason or another but whose talent was undeniable.  (Fuller falls because of injury risk.  The way I look at it, he's such a beast when he plays, I'll take 9 games of him and I'll just deal with the injuries.)

After round 8, I had a ton of "misses" but I thought the upside was there on all.  Matt Breida (Fins' RB situation was unsettled and I have always loved the explosiveness), Alexander Mattison (priority handcuff), and I wanted to get cheap access to the SF RB situation so I took both Coleman and McKinnon late.  Again, upside, upside, upside.

I also had another strategy I'd committed to early: unless Kelce fell in my lap at #20, I was going to take a TE very late and basically just stream.  This tends to be a winning strategy most years, and often you can get off the streaming carousel with a good add.  (Goedert ended up being "my guy" eventually when he was dropped while injured.)

This has been a very long post and you'll certainly hate many of the picks I made.  But this post is about strategy, not specific players.  

TLDR, the strategy was:

1.  Picked top 5 so ranked 5 players, making first pick automatic.  
2.  Assuming I got Mahomes at #5, get one RB and one more QB with next two picks, unless something crazy happened like Kelce fell to 20 or a second stud RB became available at #29.  (This was all based on building tiers and knowing where the "drop offs" would be.)
3.  Get just one "locked in" RB and focus on high-upside guys with virtually no floor after that.  
4.  Use middle round (4th, 5th, 6th, etc.) picks to chase ceiling, as those are not picks to play "defensively."
5.  Punt TE and stream.
6.  In the first round, go for safety (floor).  After about pick #30 or so, chase the moon.  So many players "bust" that go in rounds 3, 4, 5, etc. that you might as well look for that ceiling.

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1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

This will sound glib but it is not meant to be so.  The most important strategy is... having one.

So many people go into their draft or auction (if you have no strategy in an auction you are absolutely undone) with no strategy.  They are just flying by the seat of their pants.  Allow me to give you an example of what my strategy was this year in the redraft league I just won.  (Was it a good strategy?  Maybe, maybe not, but I had one.)

I picked at the #5 spot in a PPR Superflex 12-team league.  I learned of my draft slot about a week before the draft.  I began gaming scenarios out from there.  I had a clear top three: McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, in that order.  If any of them were available, I'd take them.  But I knew they'd be gone.  So I did my prep assuming they were out and how should I rank players from there?  In Superflex I like getting a QB early if it's a total stud I know will not "flop."  I was worried about Jackson in his second full season as a starter.  I knew the offense would regress some from its insane high and I thought with more "tape" on him his passing might be slowed down by defenses.  Mahomes's numbers figured to also drop off last year's historical totals but I knew he'd be a lock to be a league-winner type at QB.  So now all I have to figure out is whether to rank someone else ahead of Mahomes or not.  (I only have to rank two players to figure out who I'm taking at five as I already have my top three selected.)  A WR?  I never like taking a WR in the first half of the first round of a draft.  I've done it before and it never seems to work out well.  So now I'm looking at RBs: Kamara, Henry, Cook.  All had knocks for me coming into this season.  Henry doesn't catch passes.  Cook has had health troubles.  I go for safety in the first round, especially above pick #7 or so, based on the adage that "you can't win a league in the first round but you can lose it."  I can't remember now why I ranked Mahomes ahead of Kamara but I ultimately made the draft board McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Mahomes, Kamara, in that order.  When someone took Michael Thomas at #4, I had my pick.  

I put in the work to know that I had to get a RB at pick #20 or #29 because I had worked on my tiers to know that I wouldn't be able to get a guy I was willing to lean on at pick #44.  Again, I had my tiers set up and when pick #20 came around I realized I couldn't wait until #28 and I pulled the trigger on Mixon (I'm moth to the flame for Mixon).  The next picks were almost all RBs and the next RB selected after my next pick (#29) was Lev Bell, showing my strategy worked.  By the way the Mixon pick was bad compared to some of the RBs that went right after: Aaron Jones was #22.  But this isn't about player evaluation, it's about strategy.  The RB run meant Dak fell to #29 in a Superflex.  I badly wanted to take him at #20, but I knew my situation well and, with him and Watson still there at #20, I knew if I passed on QB that worst case some RB I really wanted would fall so I gambled and won.  Dak was my #29 pick.  Now with Mahomes and Dak secured I know that I probably have the top QB unit in a Superflex league, and one that will give me massive week-to-week stability.  This unlocks me to chase upside.

Once I get to the late 3rd or the 4th, I focus almost exclusively on upside.  A 12-teamer is not so deep that you won't be able to find lower-end WR2 or RB2 (especially in PPR) types on the wire.  (Nobody wins because they had two guys in the RB20 range to use as RB2 and a flex.)  What you want is those "big hits."  So I focused on talented WRs and RBs who came with risk but had high ceilings.  I picked Calvin Ridley (who I expected to regress big time this season but the upside was there), Jonathan Taylor (who had more ceiling than him?), Kareem Hunt (same, what if Chubb got hurt?), Stefon Diggs (I, like everyone, thought the move to Buffalo would hurt him but we've see that incredible ability before), and Will Fuller (always awesome when healthy, the prototypical "joker") with my next five picks.  (Remember this is Superflex which pushes a lot of non-QBs down, if you're wondering how some of these guys were available so late.)  Notice along the way that I'm passing on Conner, Carson, Singletary, Gordon, etc., RBs who I just didn't think had a lot of upside.  I wasn't going to grab a starter just because I "needed" an RB2.  I was instead focusing on backup or committee RBs with league-winning upside or WRs who were being shunned for one reason or another but whose talent was undeniable.  (Fuller falls because of injury risk.  The way I look at it, he's such a beast when he plays, I'll take 9 games of him and I'll just deal with the injuries.)

After round 8, I had a ton of "misses" but I thought the upside was there on all.  Matt Breida (Fins' RB situation was unsettled and I have always loved the explosiveness), Alexander Mattison (priority handcuff), and I wanted to get cheap access to the SF RB situation so I took both Coleman and McKinnon late.  Again, upside, upside, upside.

I also had another strategy I'd committed to early: unless Kelce fell in my lap at #20, I was going to take a TE very late and basically just stream.  This tends to be a winning strategy most years, and often you can get off the streaming carousel with a good add.  (Goedert ended up being "my guy" eventually when he was dropped while injured.)

This has been a very long post and you'll certainly hate many of the picks I made.  But this post is about strategy, not specific players.  

TLDR, the strategy was:

1.  Picked top 5 so ranked 5 players, making first pick automatic.  
2.  Assuming I got Mahomes at #5, get one RB and one more QB with next two picks, unless something crazy happened like Kelce fell to 20 or a second stud RB became available at #29.  (This was all based on building tiers and knowing where the "drop offs" would be.)
3.  Get just one "locked in" RB and focus on high-upside guys with virtually no floor after that.  
4.  Use middle round (4th, 5th, 6th, etc.) picks to chase ceiling, as those are not picks to play "defensively."
5.  Punt TE and stream.
6.  In the first round, go for safety (floor).  After about pick #30 or so, chase the moon.  So many players "bust" that go in rounds 3, 4, 5, etc. that you might as well look for that ceiling.

too glib / didn't read

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Not having a strategy isn’t a problem if you know who’s who in the NFL and have good instincts. I went into my draft with no real strategy, other than wanting to focus on RB early and often. I finished first with the most points scored and won the chip in my first year playing fantasy.

After the draft, I thought a few times that I should have made a big board or done this or that, but I don’t think more strategy would have done anything but force me to overthink my picks. This year, anyways. Here was my draft, btw:

4. Kamara

17. Hopkins

24. Jones

37. Taylor

44. Chark

57. Ingram

64. K. Allen

77. Rodgers

84. Burrow

97. Henry

104. NO

117. Bailey

124. Engram


On the flip side, I was really lucky with injuries and 

I think the only things I’ll change next year is to pay better attention to the NFL draft, and consider taking a TE higher. I had been researching the top 100-200 draft prospects anyways in recent years and kind of got away from it. It could pay off in the later rounds. As for TE...the Kelce, Waller, and Kittle owners all made the playoffs. I think that’s significant. 
 

Oh, and I’m not gonna bother drafting a kicker, defense, or 2nd QB. Those were wasted picks. I could have taken at least one other W/R/T instead of Burrow to evaluate for a few weeks. At kicker, I streamed all year, and did better than my league mates who held onto Lutz/Tucker/Butker all year after drafting them in middle rounds. 

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So because of COVID looming over the season our league was a little iffy on whether to play or not, but we decided to do it at the last minute (couple weeks before).  
 

The result of that was me doing my planning and analysis over a much shorter time frame than I normally would.  Less getting caught up in the hype, not getting locked in on certain players, less over analyzing and second guessing myself.  This ended up being one of my best drafted teams ever. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but maybe not. 

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7 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

So because of COVID looming over the season our league was a little iffy on whether to play or not, but we decided to do it at the last minute (couple weeks before).  
 

The result of that was me doing my planning and analysis over a much shorter time frame than I normally would.  Less getting caught up in the hype, not getting locked in on certain players, less over analyzing and second guessing myself.  This ended up being one of my best drafted teams ever. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but maybe not. 

I don't think it is.  I used to be someone who over analyzed everything.  Researching everything I did.  I stepped away from fantasy a year or so and when I came back I was much less into the research.  I still look things up, but much less so and I think my teams and decisions have been much better for it.   Find some basic details and make your own determinations instead of researching yourself into the ground is a much better strategy. 

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Fantasy football ******** sucks. In one league, made the championship for the 4th straight year, lost for the 4th straight year (yes, my team name will be the Buffalo Bills next year) my other one I was playing for 3rd against the Kamara, Jeff Wilson, Gaskin owner. So, I learned to not let the team you’re playing against outscore you. Also, don’t draft a running back. Very few pay off every season. 

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4 hours ago, HTXMade said:

Well, for some of us our season is now over and looking forward to the 2021 season. 2020 was a year for the books. 

 

My takeways from this season:

-Stay away from aging receivers with injury history (I'm looking at you Julio Jones)

-We'll see a lot of RB/RB taken in the first 2 rounds next year.

-I really hate D/ST and leaning towards doing a IDP league.

 

What are your takeaways?

I have been running a 12 team league with buddies of mine and am also strongly considering ridding Team DST for 1 or 2 IDP. 
 

One thing I learned, in this year was especially luck driven. 

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3 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

This will sound glib but it is not meant to be so.  The most important strategy is... having one.

So many people go into their draft or auction (if you have no strategy in an auction you are absolutely undone) with no strategy.  They are just flying by the seat of their pants.  Allow me to give you an example of what my strategy was this year in the redraft league I just won.  (Was it a good strategy?  Maybe, maybe not, but I had one.)

I picked at the #5 spot in a PPR Superflex 12-team league.  I learned of my draft slot about a week before the draft.  I began gaming scenarios out from there.  I had a clear top three: McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, in that order.  If any of them were available, I'd take them.  But I knew they'd be gone.  So I did my prep assuming they were out and how should I rank players from there?  In Superflex I like getting a QB early if it's a total stud I know will not "flop."  I was worried about Jackson in his second full season as a starter.  I knew the offense would regress some from its insane high and I thought with more "tape" on him his passing might be slowed down by defenses.  Mahomes's numbers figured to also drop off last year's historical totals but I knew he'd be a lock to be a league-winner type at QB.  So now all I have to figure out is whether to rank someone else ahead of Mahomes or not.  (I only have to rank two players to figure out who I'm taking at five as I already have my top three selected.)  A WR?  I never like taking a WR in the first half of the first round of a draft.  I've done it before and it never seems to work out well.  So now I'm looking at RBs: Kamara, Henry, Cook.  All had knocks for me coming into this season.  Henry doesn't catch passes.  Cook has had health troubles.  I go for safety in the first round, especially above pick #7 or so, based on the adage that "you can't win a league in the first round but you can lose it."  I can't remember now why I ranked Mahomes ahead of Kamara but I ultimately made the draft board McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Mahomes, Kamara, in that order.  When someone took Michael Thomas at #4, I had my pick.  

I put in the work to know that I had to get a RB at pick #20 or #29 because I had worked on my tiers to know that I wouldn't be able to get a guy I was willing to lean on at pick #44.  Again, I had my tiers set up and when pick #20 came around I realized I couldn't wait until #28 and I pulled the trigger on Mixon (I'm moth to the flame for Mixon).  The next picks were almost all RBs and the next RB selected after my next pick (#29) was Lev Bell, showing my strategy worked.  By the way the Mixon pick was bad compared to some of the RBs that went right after: Aaron Jones was #22.  But this isn't about player evaluation, it's about strategy.  The RB run meant Dak fell to #29 in a Superflex.  I badly wanted to take him at #20, but I knew my situation well and, with him and Watson still there at #20, I knew if I passed on QB that worst case some RB I really wanted would fall so I gambled and won.  Dak was my #29 pick.  Now with Mahomes and Dak secured I know that I probably have the top QB unit in a Superflex league, and one that will give me massive week-to-week stability.  This unlocks me to chase upside.

Once I get to the late 3rd or the 4th, I focus almost exclusively on upside.  A 12-teamer is not so deep that you won't be able to find lower-end WR2 or RB2 (especially in PPR) types on the wire.  (Nobody wins because they had two guys in the RB20 range to use as RB2 and a flex.)  What you want is those "big hits."  So I focused on talented WRs and RBs who came with risk but had high ceilings.  I picked Calvin Ridley (who I expected to regress big time this season but the upside was there), Jonathan Taylor (who had more ceiling than him?), Kareem Hunt (same, what if Chubb got hurt?), Stefon Diggs (I, like everyone, thought the move to Buffalo would hurt him but we've see that incredible ability before), and Will Fuller (always awesome when healthy, the prototypical "joker") with my next five picks.  (Remember this is Superflex which pushes a lot of non-QBs down, if you're wondering how some of these guys were available so late.)  Notice along the way that I'm passing on Conner, Carson, Singletary, Gordon, etc., RBs who I just didn't think had a lot of upside.  I wasn't going to grab a starter just because I "needed" an RB2.  I was instead focusing on backup or committee RBs with league-winning upside or WRs who were being shunned for one reason or another but whose talent was undeniable.  (Fuller falls because of injury risk.  The way I look at it, he's such a beast when he plays, I'll take 9 games of him and I'll just deal with the injuries.)

After round 8, I had a ton of "misses" but I thought the upside was there on all.  Matt Breida (Fins' RB situation was unsettled and I have always loved the explosiveness), Alexander Mattison (priority handcuff), and I wanted to get cheap access to the SF RB situation so I took both Coleman and McKinnon late.  Again, upside, upside, upside.

I also had another strategy I'd committed to early: unless Kelce fell in my lap at #20, I was going to take a TE very late and basically just stream.  This tends to be a winning strategy most years, and often you can get off the streaming carousel with a good add.  (Goedert ended up being "my guy" eventually when he was dropped while injured.)

This has been a very long post and you'll certainly hate many of the picks I made.  But this post is about strategy, not specific players.  

TLDR, the strategy was:

1.  Picked top 5 so ranked 5 players, making first pick automatic.  
2.  Assuming I got Mahomes at #5, get one RB and one more QB with next two picks, unless something crazy happened like Kelce fell to 20 or a second stud RB became available at #29.  (This was all based on building tiers and knowing where the "drop offs" would be.)
3.  Get just one "locked in" RB and focus on high-upside guys with virtually no floor after that.  
4.  Use middle round (4th, 5th, 6th, etc.) picks to chase ceiling, as those are not picks to play "defensively."
5.  Punt TE and stream.
6.  In the first round, go for safety (floor).  After about pick #30 or so, chase the moon.  So many players "bust" that go in rounds 3, 4, 5, etc. that you might as well look for that ceiling.


I think you just proved strategy doesn’t really matter since U said your first 3 picks were CMC, Barkley and Zeke. All 3 busted due to injury or ineffectiveness. 
 

Here’s a strategy. Pick the BPA and stay healthy. Be active on the waiver wire and pick fill holes accordingly. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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3 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

This will sound glib but it is not meant to be so.  The most important strategy is... having one.

So many people go into their draft or auction (if you have no strategy in an auction you are absolutely undone) with no strategy.  They are just flying by the seat of their pants.  Allow me to give you an example of what my strategy was this year in the redraft league I just won.  (Was it a good strategy?  Maybe, maybe not, but I had one.)

I picked at the #5 spot in a PPR Superflex 12-team league.  I learned of my draft slot about a week before the draft.  I began gaming scenarios out from there.  I had a clear top three: McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, in that order.  If any of them were available, I'd take them.  But I knew they'd be gone.  So I did my prep assuming they were out and how should I rank players from there?  In Superflex I like getting a QB early if it's a total stud I know will not "flop."  I was worried about Jackson in his second full season as a starter.  I knew the offense would regress some from its insane high and I thought with more "tape" on him his passing might be slowed down by defenses.  Mahomes's numbers figured to also drop off last year's historical totals but I knew he'd be a lock to be a league-winner type at QB.  So now all I have to figure out is whether to rank someone else ahead of Mahomes or not.  (I only have to rank two players to figure out who I'm taking at five as I already have my top three selected.)  A WR?  I never like taking a WR in the first half of the first round of a draft.  I've done it before and it never seems to work out well.  So now I'm looking at RBs: Kamara, Henry, Cook.  All had knocks for me coming into this season.  Henry doesn't catch passes.  Cook has had health troubles.  I go for safety in the first round, especially above pick #7 or so, based on the adage that "you can't win a league in the first round but you can lose it."  I can't remember now why I ranked Mahomes ahead of Kamara but I ultimately made the draft board McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Mahomes, Kamara, in that order.  When someone took Michael Thomas at #4, I had my pick.  

I put in the work to know that I had to get a RB at pick #20 or #29 because I had worked on my tiers to know that I wouldn't be able to get a guy I was willing to lean on at pick #44.  Again, I had my tiers set up and when pick #20 came around I realized I couldn't wait until #28 and I pulled the trigger on Mixon (I'm moth to the flame for Mixon).  The next picks were almost all RBs and the next RB selected after my next pick (#29) was Lev Bell, showing my strategy worked.  By the way the Mixon pick was bad compared to some of the RBs that went right after: Aaron Jones was #22.  But this isn't about player evaluation, it's about strategy.  The RB run meant Dak fell to #29 in a Superflex.  I badly wanted to take him at #20, but I knew my situation well and, with him and Watson still there at #20, I knew if I passed on QB that worst case some RB I really wanted would fall so I gambled and won.  Dak was my #29 pick.  Now with Mahomes and Dak secured I know that I probably have the top QB unit in a Superflex league, and one that will give me massive week-to-week stability.  This unlocks me to chase upside.

Once I get to the late 3rd or the 4th, I focus almost exclusively on upside.  A 12-teamer is not so deep that you won't be able to find lower-end WR2 or RB2 (especially in PPR) types on the wire.  (Nobody wins because they had two guys in the RB20 range to use as RB2 and a flex.)  What you want is those "big hits."  So I focused on talented WRs and RBs who came with risk but had high ceilings.  I picked Calvin Ridley (who I expected to regress big time this season but the upside was there), Jonathan Taylor (who had more ceiling than him?), Kareem Hunt (same, what if Chubb got hurt?), Stefon Diggs (I, like everyone, thought the move to Buffalo would hurt him but we've see that incredible ability before), and Will Fuller (always awesome when healthy, the prototypical "joker") with my next five picks.  (Remember this is Superflex which pushes a lot of non-QBs down, if you're wondering how some of these guys were available so late.)  Notice along the way that I'm passing on Conner, Carson, Singletary, Gordon, etc., RBs who I just didn't think had a lot of upside.  I wasn't going to grab a starter just because I "needed" an RB2.  I was instead focusing on backup or committee RBs with league-winning upside or WRs who were being shunned for one reason or another but whose talent was undeniable.  (Fuller falls because of injury risk.  The way I look at it, he's such a beast when he plays, I'll take 9 games of him and I'll just deal with the injuries.)

After round 8, I had a ton of "misses" but I thought the upside was there on all.  Matt Breida (Fins' RB situation was unsettled and I have always loved the explosiveness), Alexander Mattison (priority handcuff), and I wanted to get cheap access to the SF RB situation so I took both Coleman and McKinnon late.  Again, upside, upside, upside.

I also had another strategy I'd committed to early: unless Kelce fell in my lap at #20, I was going to take a TE very late and basically just stream.  This tends to be a winning strategy most years, and often you can get off the streaming carousel with a good add.  (Goedert ended up being "my guy" eventually when he was dropped while injured.)

This has been a very long post and you'll certainly hate many of the picks I made.  But this post is about strategy, not specific players.  

TLDR, the strategy was:

1.  Picked top 5 so ranked 5 players, making first pick automatic.  
2.  Assuming I got Mahomes at #5, get one RB and one more QB with next two picks, unless something crazy happened like Kelce fell to 20 or a second stud RB became available at #29.  (This was all based on building tiers and knowing where the "drop offs" would be.)
3.  Get just one "locked in" RB and focus on high-upside guys with virtually no floor after that.  
4.  Use middle round (4th, 5th, 6th, etc.) picks to chase ceiling, as those are not picks to play "defensively."
5.  Punt TE and stream.
6.  In the first round, go for safety (floor).  After about pick #30 or so, chase the moon.  So many players "bust" that go in rounds 3, 4, 5, etc. that you might as well look for that ceiling.

 

My eyes 

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Keep drafting QBs late.

Last year L. Jackson in one league, picked up Herbert this year and started another rookie Hurts in the championship game.

And the most important waiver pickups aren't Tuesday night...they're usually after Friday's last practice report. It's amazing how many times I picked up next week's #1 waiver pickup the week prior.

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5 hours ago, Asian Sensation said:

Don’t get Kamara’d.

Or GOAT'd.  Or Mike Evansed.  Or Davanted.  Or all FOUR (yeah, somebody out there I'm sure got pounded like there was no tomorrow and probably pretty sore this morning...)

 

8 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

 

My eyes 

My brain.  

Seriously, who can wade through that with holiday and Covid fatigue?

My lesson learned: Don't listen to all the talking heads, especially when they say something like, "Don't spend a high draft pick on tight end, since you only need to play 1 and there's plenty of high upside options in the later rounds."

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Sounds simple but I've long been a believer of mock drafting at least a few times a week as early as a couple months before the draft. That way you get a good feel for adp and what kind of players you will see at each round from multiple draft spots. In this way I know when to reach and how long I can wait for guys I want. I usually leave the draft with the guys I want without having to reach too hard. Now whether those guys do well is up to a bunch of different variables... fantasypros has a killer mock draft feature that you can use and get a mock done in minutes. Espn has mock draft lobby which allows you to mock with other people but its a pain in the neck... 

Also I've found that once we have enough data to make good predictions for good and bad matchups, its time to start thinking playoff schedules and trade for dudes who will have good matchups. If you can make it in you can win. 

But mostly just try to enjoy it and not let it melt your brain. There's truly nothing we can do to make these human beings perform well so set it and forget it. 

Thanks to everyone in these forums though. Good info in here usually, and its kept me from doing some real dumb stuff in the past. 

Edited by Buckmcbuck
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3 hours ago, rabaak said:

It is better to be lucky than good. Seems every year it takes more and more luck to win.

 

 


True but strategy paid off this year for many. I wanted to hammer WRs in the middle rounds and was able to get Ridley, Fuller, Diggs, Metcalf, etc, 

 

You need strategy to get there and some luck to finish it off. Lot of variables go into a player doing well.

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Try to draft a reliable QB and TE.  Streaming those positions is a headache I don't want to deal with.  I'm confident in my skills to find RBs and WRs with upside.  I don't want to add QBs and TEs into the mix each week.  Can you be successful by drafting QBs and TEs late?  Sure.  But having those 2 positions be reliable points makes managing your team a lot easier.  I don't advocate reaching early for either position but knowing when to take them can make or break your draft.  IMO, if people are drafting backup QBs, you better make it a priority to get one if you don't have one.

Even if you don't follow the advice of FF experts, you should still listen to what they have to say.  They aren't always wrong and they can give you ideas to research further.

Don't ever get locked in on a player in the early rounds of a draft. Reaching a little is OK, but if their ADP is 3 rounds later, just let him go another round at least.

Don't gravitate to players on your favorite teams just because they are on your favorite teams.

Know the tendencies of your league.  Is it QB heavy in the first 2 rounds or is it RB mania for the first 10 picks while Adams and Thomas fall?

Sometimes being part of a position run makes sense.

 

Always grab a player you think is going to blow up.  Better to have them on your bench when they do than fight other teams on the WW for him.

 

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Throw out the year 2020.  I'm not sure we'll ever see anything like it again.  Bottom line, you need luck in the playoffs to win the championship.  It's almost impossible to lead wire to wire in football, compared to fantasy baseball.

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Have a rushing QB on every roster.   You're going to be an underdog at that position nearly every week if you're starting a statue.    My one non playoff team didn't spend a little extra in auction to get Josh Allen or Kyler Murray because I was set on just getting the cheaper option at the back end of the top 12 QB's, and that was a difference maker. In addition, avoid the old guys

Don't take the bait on going receiver heavy as an absolute.   Three top RB's for sure performed up to task,and that's it, so everyone's gonna preach zero RB next year.   If you had one of those RB's.......you almost certainly did well though.  A top RB is still IMO the path to a championship.  

No Rams.   None.  Not a single share of anyone on that team.    

I found myself coasting in a league, sure to get a bye at about week 10/11.   I maneuvered to get the Rams D and the Browns D because they played the Jets in weeks 15/16.  They combined for 8 points.   Defense was always a crapshoot, but now its not even worth a few minutes of time to research every week. 

In my auction keeper, probably a dozen different WR's went for cheap in the last two seasons during their rookie year, only to turn into amazing keeper options.  Given that i hear good things about this class, I plan to fill my back end with all of these types of guys.  

 

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