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Jacob deGrom 2021 Outlook


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In the shortened 2020 season, went 4-2 with 2.38 ERA and 104 K over 68 IPs. Was in the Cy Young discussion but Bauer beat him out.

For 2021, the Mets picked-up James McCann which should help out Jacob as he is a good defensive catcher.

NYMs should be better with new ownership exploring possible additions like Springer.

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My #1 pitcher going into 2019   My #1 pitcher going into 2020   My #1 pitching going into 2021    

Streaming the pitchers facing DeGrom is a legitimate strategy.

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I’m calling my shot that he gets injured this year.  I’ve always been really paranoid of Degrom getting TJ or something especially because he throws so hard and is on the Mets.  He keeps increasing in velocity and... it may be irrational, but I’m just worried.  This take could age horrifically 

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8 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I’m calling my shot that he gets injured this year.  I’ve always been really paranoid of Degrom getting TJ or something especially because he throws so hard and is on the Mets.  He keeps increasing in velocity and... it may be irrational, but I’m just worried.  This take could age horrifically 

 

He had TJS in 2009. Its worth mentioning, that even though he is old, he doesn't have the mileage that other star pitchers his age have. He was a SS in college. He missed two years after he was drafted. Then was basically babied every year until he got to an elite level. And now he just had an easy 68 IP season. I get that pitcher injuries should always be a concern, but if I was predicting a specific pitcher to get hurt, deGrom would be one of the last guys I would think of.

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56 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He had TJS in 2009. Its worth mentioning, that even though he is old, he doesn't have the mileage that other star pitchers his age have. He was a SS in college. He missed two years after he was drafted. Then was basically babied every year until he got to an elite level. And now he just had an easy 68 IP season. I get that pitcher injuries should always be a concern, but if I was predicting a specific pitcher to get hurt, deGrom would be one of the last guys I would think of.

Yeah this all checks out.  But I still think I'm going to avoid drafting him because I have a strong gut feeling this is the year he's injured.  Something about the Mets, and his arm troubles last year (briefly) and the fact that he increased his speed.  I'm completely aware that it's foolhardy to try and predict pitcher injuries, but sometimes you have to go with your gut

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Something to consider. Clayton Kershaw and Jacob deGrom are the same age: 32. Including postseason play, Kershaw has pitched over 2500 innings at the MLB level and deGrom has pitched less than 1200. This dude has a TON of gas left in the tank.

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1 hour ago, Dislimb said:

Something to consider. Clayton Kershaw and Jacob deGrom are the same age: 32. Including postseason play, Kershaw has pitched over 2500 innings at the MLB level and deGrom has pitched less than 1200. This dude has a TON of gas left in the tank.

Yeah that's also something sidearmer alluded to.  I've honestly skeptical that total cumulative innings is an indicator for TJ.  It actually feels like more younger pitchers are the ones getting Tommy John nowadays.  And you have guys like Verlander who were able to wait until they were 38 until they got it.  But again, I'm not an expert and I think a lot of it is random chance.  

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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For redrafts, he HAS to be the #1 pitcher. 

It's going to be a very weird year for SPs, but DeGrom feels strangely so safe. In many types of leagues he's honestly up there for the #1 overall pick for owners who need an ace they can rely on in a year where there isn't many SPs that can be relied on. 

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22 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Yeah this all checks out.  But I still think I'm going to avoid drafting him because I have a strong gut feeling this is the year he's injured.  Something about the Mets, and his arm troubles last year (briefly) and the fact that he increased his speed.  I'm completely aware that it's foolhardy to try and predict pitcher injuries, but sometimes you have to go with your gut

 

Fair enough - As a Mets fan, I totally understand the "something about the Mets" angle.

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20 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Fair enough - As a Mets fan, I totally understand the "something about the Mets" angle.

Padres might be the new Mets

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Is it crazy to have Jacob DeGrom as my 12th rated pitcher in start up dynasty formats? 

I mean, he's 33 years old. Sure, you are getting the best SP in the game this year, probably next, but beyond that???

I have Shane Bieber as my 1st rated SP obviously, but I'd prefer a guy like Luis Castillo at 28 years old over 33 year old DeGrom in a Dynasty start up. I'd prefer Giolito at 27, I'd prefer Flaherty at 25.6. etc. 

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I think it is crazy. Just hoping those guys someday have one year as good as Degrom has every year. Guy like Bieber that is having those type of years now and is young makes perfect sense to have ranked higher. But I can't rank all young upside guys over Degrom that have not proven to be studs. Of course sometimes they end up being super studs and you missed out but other times they never turned out to be anything and it was the right call. 

Edited by FantasyGeek2018
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31 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Is it crazy to have Jacob DeGrom as my 12th rated pitcher in start up dynasty formats? 

I mean, he's 33 years old. Sure, you are getting the best SP in the game this year, probably next, but beyond that???

I have Shane Bieber as my 1st rated SP obviously, but I'd prefer a guy like Luis Castillo at 28 years old over 33 year old DeGrom in a Dynasty start up. I'd prefer Giolito at 27, I'd prefer Flaherty at 25.6. etc. 

Yes. Pitchers in Dynasty are difficult to gauge, there's certainly an inefficiency in the market.  People over value age. For the most part, I will value pitchers as good as they are right now, even in dynasty.  Expecting any pitcher in the minors to be the next Degrom is nuts. I'm sure 1-2 of them will be, but confidently projecting and paying based on that expectation is nuts to me.

Many of the young studs you assume you will have a career trajectory similar to hitters or players in different sports aren't there. A couple people have put me on to evaluating dynasty pitchers differently and it has worked out for me.  

I really don't put too much expectations on a pitcher other than assuming they will be good for another 2-3 years assuming they look good now.  Obviously when pitchers are 35+ there's more pause.  But take Degrom for example. HE's 32 and the best pitcher in baseball.  He's excellent right now. What's my value for him? I think he'll be great for another 2-3 years.  Sixto Sanchez? Had a great first season but overachieved.  How do i value him? I think he'll be good for another 2-3 years.  I'd never downgrade Degrom to Sixto just because of age.  Degrom to Bieber? I think that's very close, Degrom is slightly better but the age is nice, and not saying I'd even trade for Bieber there.

The amount of pitchers that just dominate for 5-10 years in a row is quite small.  I'd probably rather have Kershaw than Sixto as well.  Top pitching prospect Gore? Def rather have the likes of Kershaw over him in dynasty and I'll take the L if Sixto turns into Pedro.

Pitching prospects are risky but fun. I want them, but I'm not downgrading studs to upside because of age like I would consider doing with hitters. Seeing a good pitcher around age 20-22, I just don't expect most of them to get better and the dominate consistently year over year. Not saying it can't happen, I'm just not paying big for it to happen.

Bieber/Cole are the only pitchers I'm considering in roughly the same value tier as Degrom in any format.  One of these guys probably gets hurts and sucks this year, I'm not going to guess which. 

TLDR: I'm much more likely to just value pitchers based on current arsenal/performance. 

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1 hour ago, CrypTviLL said:

Is it crazy to have Jacob DeGrom as my 12th rated pitcher in start up dynasty formats? 

I mean, he's 33 years old. Sure, you are getting the best SP in the game this year, probably next, but beyond that???

I have Shane Bieber as my 1st rated SP obviously, but I'd prefer a guy like Luis Castillo at 28 years old over 33 year old DeGrom in a Dynasty start up. I'd prefer Giolito at 27, I'd prefer Flaherty at 25.6. etc. 

I don't think there are 11 other pitchers I'd rather have in a dynasty (keep-forever) format, but there are definitely 5! I'd take Cole, Giolito, Bieber, Nola and Buehler over DeGrom. Flaherty and Castillo are close but gotta still take DeGrom over them imo. M Gore vs DeGrom is super interesting but I still would go DeGrom (at this time) because I play to win every year, even in dynasty style leagues.

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9 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

I don't think there are 11 other pitchers I'd rather have in a dynasty (keep-forever) format, but there are definitely 5! I'd take Cole, Giolito, Bieber, Nola and Buehler over DeGrom. Flaherty and Castillo are close but gotta still take DeGrom over them imo. M Gore vs DeGrom is super interesting but I still would go DeGrom (at this time) because I play to win every year, even in dynasty style leagues.

 

Gore vs Degrom is not remotely close for me. I would like to just throw that out there.  I think if you're holding on to Gore and can trade him for any pitcher you listed above, I'd do it. Best case for Gore is he becomes one of those pitchers and I'd put the odds at under 50%. Certainly possible, but I much rather have the great pitcher for sure now.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Is it crazy to have Jacob DeGrom as my 12th rated pitcher in start up dynasty formats? 

I mean, he's 33 years old. Sure, you are getting the best SP in the game this year, probably next, but beyond that???   ...

Yes, yes it is.  Dynasty owners way way way WAY over value youth over vet players thinking that:

  • There dynasty league will last forever when it is destined to fold in a year or so.
  • Vet players can only help you for 3 or 4 years which ... the horror the horror.
  • Too many young players are great because they will jam up your line-up just when you need room for the "younger" crop.

Give me a deGrom any day who has shown that much consistency.  People literally cast a Charlie Morton aside in these leagues and others pick him up and win championships with him.  You need balance as in a good mix of vets with younger players and good prospects.  The pipeline approach.  Keep the flow of players going in a nice, even way.  You can get vets a lot cheaper in trades too.  People overpay for prospects and when half or more of them fail and even more turn out to be pretty ordinary players and you are sitting there with the deGrom's of the world you take home the trophy.

I'm not saying flip all your prospects for vets or ignore good, younger players.  I'm saying use all three types and not just the young and younger types.  You don't have to go all in on vets.  Just anchor your team with some.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Gore vs Degrom is not remotely close for me. I would like to just throw that out there.  I think if you're holding on to Gore and can trade him for any pitcher you listed above, I'd do it. Best case for Gore is he becomes one of those pitchers and I'd put the odds at under 50%. Certainly possible, but I much rather have the great pitcher for sure now.

Best case for Gore is that he's the second coming of Kershaw and you get those stats for the next 10 years. I'm not staying trade deGrom for other high-end SP prospects like Howard/Pearson/Kopech, just M Gore because he's special. I'd still take deGrom as of right now, but fast forward a year from now and I wouldn't.

Big Bat Theory is correct that people rely on prospects too much, when in reality the league will most likely fold after a couple of seasons. With this type of thinking you should easily choose deGrom over M Gore...luckily I play in a league that's been around 17 years and is going no where  :D

 

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6 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Best case for Gore is that he's the second coming of Kershaw and you get those stats for the next 10 years. I'm not staying trade deGrom for other high-end SP prospects like Howard/Pearson/Kopech, just M Gore because he's special. I'd still take deGrom as of right now, but fast forward a year from now and I wouldn't.

Big Bat Theory is correct that people rely on prospects too much, when in reality the league will most likely fold after a couple of seasons. With this type of thinking you should easily choose deGrom over M Gore...luckily I play in a league that's been around 17 years and is going no where  :D

 

I still have Degrom miles ahead of Gore. Sure he could be great. I think he will be good atleast. But think about every SP the past 20 years we all thought would be stars and ended up not being one. Some bust bigtime most turn out to be just decent. A few turn into what we dream about. But only a rare few. I will take the for sure proven stud right now if still under 35 years old in a keeper over any SP that has zero inning in the bigs.

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15 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Best case for Gore is that he's the second coming of Kershaw 

Yeah i mean you could say that, but i don't think that's a realistic outcome. Possible? Sure.  I know he's had some back troubles and doesn't go 200 anymore, but thinking Gore can become Kershaw is really underestimating how amazing and ridiculous of a career Kershaw has had.

Kershaw currently ranks Number One all time in ERA with 2k innings pitched.  #1.   Numero uno.  Not saying he's the goat pitcher, I won't, but he's in the argument.  It's pretty easy to say Gore won't be. I'd give odds too. Even if he's great it's hard to be THAT great. 

 I think every top ranked prospect pitcher has flopped a decent amount of their career besides Strasburg in the last 10 years. Strasburg wasn't Kershaw either and some consider Strasburg a disappointment.  

It's possible in 1 year Gore > Degrom. Gore could be excellent and Degrom could fall apart or have TJ. Outside of a serious injury to Degrom, I'd be surprised if I'd rather have Gore than Degrom in a year. Possible, sure.

I'm out on "expecting" 10 good years from a pitcher as value in a trade expectation whereas I think giving someone like Soto/Acuna value for 10 years seems fine.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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The argument of Gore vs. DeGrom is a bit silly IMO. That's a bit dramatic.

I'm talking about guys like Buehler, Giolito, Nola, Castillo, Flaherty, Snell, Bauer, Gallen, Woodruff, Cole, Bieber being a head of DeGrom.

Bauer and Cole 30 y/o, but I feel are very durable. DeGrom at 33 y/o is still great. 

I'm not convinced that choosing DeGrom a head of those 11 or so is a good choice in a dynasty. 

 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Yeah i mean you could say that, but i don't think that's a realistic outcome. Possible? Sure.  I know he's had some back troubles and doesn't go 200 anymore, but thinking Gore can become Kershaw is really underestimating how amazing and ridiculous of a career Kershaw has had.

Kershaw currently ranks Number One all time in ERA with 2k innings pitched.  #1.   Numero uno.  Not saying he's the goat pitcher, I won't, but he's in the argument.  It's pretty easy to say Gore won't be. I'd give odds too. Even if he's great it's hard to be THAT great. 

 I think every top ranked prospect pitcher has flopped a decent amount of their career besides Strasburg in the last 10 years. Strasburg wasn't Kershaw either and some consider Strasburg a disappointment.  

It's possible in 1 year Gore > Degrom. Gore could be excellent and Degrom could fall apart or have TJ. Outside of a serious injury to Degrom, I'd be surprised if I'd rather have Gore than Degrom in a year. Possible, sure.

I'm out on "expecting" 10 good years from a pitcher as value in a trade expectation whereas I think giving someone like Soto/Acuna value for 10 years seems fine.

That's absolutely fair Brock. Kershaw's peak was amazing, not underselling it, it's historical. Clearly I'm in the minority on this one but I love M Gore. I don't think it's silly if we're talking long-term value. Gun to my head who would I rather have the next 10 years? M Gore. Just difference of opinion. I think if it's 2022 and the Mets offered deGrom for M Gore, the Padres say no.

 

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13 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

The argument of Gore vs. DeGrom is a bit silly IMO. That's a bit dramatic.

I'm talking about guys like Buehler, Giolito, Nola, Castillo, Flaherty, Snell, Bauer, Gallen, Woodruff, Cole, Bieber being a head of DeGrom.

Bauer and Cole 30 y/o, but I feel are very durable. DeGrom at 33 y/o is still great. 

I'm not convinced that choosing DeGrom a head of those 11 or so is a good choice in a dynasty. 

Snell, Bauer, Woodruff, Gallen aren't even in the conversation imo

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6 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

I think if it's 2022 and the Mets offered deGrom for M Gore, the Padres say no.

 

Wouldn't bet my life on this.

I mean we both know that in 10 years Degrom and Kershaw are very likely not playing baseball and very good odds that Gore still is (even though we dont know how good these next 10 years will be).

 

  10 years is way too long to care about a pitcher for me.  Odds are your league won't be around in 10 years. That's longer than his entire rookie cost controlled contract.  To put that in perspective that's significantly longer of a time frame than when Kris Bryant debuted until now.

 

My whole point is I dont care about a pitcher 10 years from now, and the very few that will accomplish having 10 good years is so small and non obvious that I would never pay for those expectations. Ever.

I do think currently Gore is the best pitching prospect.  But I'm EASILY taking the prospect field over Gore in terms of who has a better career. If he was that good, the Padres would have called him up last year.  They rushed up Paddack and Tatis to compete.

I would bet against Gore achieving Degrom's peak, even for just 1 year.

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