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Dinelson Lamet 2021 Outlook


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Really nice breakout in 2020, but are injury concerns keeping you away?  An interesting thread about his reliance on the slider.

Another good article on his FB velo, late season injury and reliance on 2 pitches (although there's some conversation in the Twitter thread about him using 2 different sliders.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/walking-the-tight-rope-with-dinelson-lamet/

Overall feels like some pretty glaring red flags for a guy going top 100 (currently around 68 ADP).

Edited by 89Topps
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The Padres Doctor

in the grand scheme of everything aren’t we all kind of day to day?

4 hours ago, 89Topps said:

Really nice breakout in 2020, but are injury concerns keeping you away?  An interesting thread about his reliance on the slider.

Another good article on his FB velo, late season injury and reliance on 2 pitches (although there's some conversation in the Twitter thread about him using 2 different sliders.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/walking-the-tight-rope-with-dinelson-lamet/

Overall feels like some pretty glaring red flags for a guy going top 100 (currently around 68 ADP).

Ugh thanks. I'm debating having him as a keeper but all of this is my concern. 

What are we looking at in spring to alleviate any of this? Pitch selection? Velo?

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Big time DND list candidate.

2 pitch pitcher with injury concerns and a very high price tag.

No faith in him at all, ESPECIALLY with where his ADP will be due to the 2020 success. 

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The 2 pitches has always been a concern for him. Ignoring the injury concerns, just that issue will lead me to be out on him. These type of guys rarely ever have multiple years of success until they get a third pitch.

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On 1/2/2021 at 10:08 PM, 24/7fantasysports said:

I know the Padres are going all in. But the back to back acquisitions of Snell and Darvish raises the concern of Lamets health. All speculation on my part.

Add Musgrove.  Talk to a 6 man rotation.  Plus this...

 

The 28-year-old Lamet previously underwent Tommy John surgery, and last season he was shut down just prior to the playoffs because of a biceps issue, which is a concerning thing in a pitcher who's had his elbow reconstructed. Preller in his recent comments, though, downplayed those concerns (via 97.3 The Fan😞

"There's not anything from a health standpoint that we know with Dinelson Lamet that, you know, is going to come out in the next couple of days . . . He's passed every test we've had. We'll get into spring training, and he's going to be a guy that we'll let go out and pitch."

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Sometimes I shake my head at ADP data and say to myself what the hell is the fantasy community thinking? Case in point, Lamet being drafted around pick 70. Easiest fade in the draft at that price, imo.

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Easy hard pass.  There was a recent podcast, Sleeper and the Bust I think, in which they universally panned Lamet for the injury reasons already noted, but one other reason I found very interesting.  Basically Lamet showed sigsn of being hurt after amping up his fastball velo.  This increased velo made him a better pitcher but hurt his arm, and towards the end of the season he had to drop the velo to stay on the field.  Point is, he has only two pitches and if one of them, the fastball, isn't fast enough to be effective then he only really has one pitch.  Not a good outlook and definitely not a good value at the current ADP. 

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He’s on basically every “bust” or “do not draft” list out there and it actually makes me think he’s gonna be a great buy if you’re drafting closer to the start of spring training.  His adp and rankings seem to be around the 80s which clearly has his injury risk baked in as is and everyone’s still saying don’t draft.  In a year where we can expect most starti pitchers to be on some innings restrictions I’d rather have 120-140 innings of Lamet than 140-160 innings of guys like Greinke, Hendricks or ryu.  If it’s a points league or h2h I’d have a different take but for roto the 120 innings of lamet a k/9 potential is worth the risk.

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3 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Easy hard pass.  There was a recent podcast, Sleeper and the Bust I think, in which they universally panned Lamet for the injury reasons already noted, but one other reason I found very interesting.  Basically Lamet showed sigsn of being hurt after amping up his fastball velo.  This increased velo made him a better pitcher but hurt his arm, and towards the end of the season he had to drop the velo to stay on the field.  Point is, he has only two pitches and if one of them, the fastball, isn't fast enough to be effective then he only really has one pitch.  Not a good outlook and definitely not a good value at the current ADP. 

I noticed that as well. To be fair, he has been hitting mid to upper 90s since he returned from TJ in 2019. Just a few ticks higher last season

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Could be a repeat of Severino from last season when he was going for a discount.  Same with Stanton.  

I need more of a discount.

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On 1/27/2021 at 6:18 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

Easy hard pass.  There was a recent podcast, Sleeper and the Bust I think, in which they universally panned Lamet for the injury reasons already noted, but one other reason I found very interesting.  Basically Lamet showed sigsn of being hurt after amping up his fastball velo.  This increased velo made him a better pitcher but hurt his arm, and towards the end of the season he had to drop the velo to stay on the field.  Point is, he has only two pitches and if one of them, the fastball, isn't fast enough to be effective then he only really has one pitch.  Not a good outlook and definitely not a good value at the current ADP. 

Sounds like a future closer or setup man

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On 1/29/2021 at 7:39 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

Judging by current sentiment, he's now underrated.

He's still being taken as a top 25 pitcher.  If he drops (and I haven't seen that happen too often) then it's time to take a stab.  

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  • 3 weeks later...

To recap: Lamet has already undergone one Tommy John surgery. He was shut down again last year with elbow pain (don’t believe the “biceps soreness” diagnosis), had PRP injections in October, and now there’s revelations of narrowly avoiding surgery. If you’re investing a top 100 pick on this dude, good luck!

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He's one of the rare players I have on my "do not draft" list. Unless he drops out of the top 150 there is way too much risk here.

Edited by Sidearmer
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12 hours ago, 89Topps said:

Concerning that he felt that after just 69 innings pitched?  

I would say yes. He’d have to come at an extraordinary discount in my keeper leagues for me to draft him. I’m assuming of course that his owners will be smart enough to cut him loose. 

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